Thursday, June 30, 2011

Russia's New Nuke Missile

By Micah Halpern

Thursday June 30, 2011
I've Been Thinking:
Russia recently did another test of their newest nuclear missile. The Russians named this missile the Bulava which means "mace" in Russian.
The missile was launched from a submarine. It has a range of 3400 miles and the ability to strike half way around the world. The Bulava is called an intercontinental missile for a very good reason.
The Bulava is set to be the cornerstone of Russia's new nuclear arsenal. The Russians covered the test in their media. In the past they have posted Youtube video clips of the launch of Bulava missiles from submarines.
The question now is what is the market value of the Bulava and to which countries can Russia sell this missile. The real money in nuclear missiles is in sales.
This kind of weapon is not defensive, it is offensive only. The simple fact of developing and/or acquiring this missile says everything.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Wednesday, June 29, 2011

2/3 of Egypt Support Peace w/ Israel

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
67% of Egypt wants to continue the peace treaty with Israel. 67% is equal to two-thirds of the population. That's a lot.
That is the finding of a new survey of 1062 people conducted by the Cabinet Information Decision Support Center - the research arm of the Egyptian cabinet.
This is truly a remarkable number given the tensions and the rhetoric that has been abounding in Egypt since January.
According to the poll only 11% want to scrap the treaty and 2% of the Egyptian population wants to revise some aspects. 20% would not answer the question.
This is very good news for Egypt and for the region.

The poll also asked Egyptians if they were willing to vote in the upcoming election. An overwhelming 87% of those asked said they will vote - as opposed to the underwhelming 18% who voted in the last election.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Iron Dome Near Haifa

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Israel has deployed their Iron Dome anti-missile battery in an area near Haifa. This is enormously significant.
Two Iron Dome installations are already in position along the Gaza border and more are being placed throughout Israel. This anti-missile battery system, which is totally designed and manufactured in Israel, strikes at incoming missiles with remarkable accuracy.
The point Israel is making in deploying now is that they are preparing for what may be an imminent attack by Hezbollah. Should Hezbollah attack these Iron Dome batteries are the last line of defense. And they are a very good last line of defense.
Positioning the Iron Dome around Haifa signals to Hezbollah that Israel is aware of their moves and that Israel is publically countering with defensive - not offensive, weapons.
Hezbollah must understand that saber rattling in Lebanon has consequences. They must understand that Israel takes the safety of Israeli citizens very seriously.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Monday, June 27, 2011

Iran's Nuke Conference

By Micah Halpern

Column:

Last week Iran hosted a two day international conference on nuclear non- proliferation called "Nuclear Energy for All - Nuclear Weapons for None." Honest. Only the Iranians could make up something like this.
The purpose of creating and hosting this conference was two-fold. Iran's first and real reason was to call the world's attention to Israel's nuclear program which has always been cloaked in secrecy. The second and more obvious reason was to deflect attention from Iran's own and very problematic nuclear program and nuclear aspirations.

Representatives from forty countries were in attendance at this, Iran's second conference on nuclear non-proliferation. The first took place just a few months ago and, not surprisingly, that conference, too, was called "Nuclear Energy for All - Nuclear Weapons for None."

Apparently, the Iranians believe in sticking with a good thing when you find it. Not only were they not laughed out of the international community of interested nuclear watchers when they named and called their first conference, but they actually had attendees. I won't be surprised to see more of these same-named conferences in the coming months.
Iran has mastered the art of worldwide public relations.
Pointing the finger at Israel and deflecting attention from themselves are important enough reasons to hold these conferences, but for Iran, there is more. Ultimately, Iran wants to topple United States hegemony and influence in the world. To get there, Iran is taking advantage of a double standard in US foreign policy.

Iran wants to invert the pyramid. One of the central objectives of Iran's own foreign policy is to position itself as leader of the world and topple US dominance. The world, as Iran sees it, is unjustly configured and as a result, unjustly policed. The United States and friends have an advantage and no one else even gets a fair hearing.
Only a few countries sit at the top of the pyramid along with the United States, the masses are positioned at the base. Iran thinks it can invert the pyramid so that the voices of the many are heard and so that the favoritism of the US - with all its special relationships, is relegated to nothing more than a distant, unpleasant memory.
Iran's argument resonates in many countries around the world. In the Middle East it resonates especially powerfully where the classic example of this perceived imbalance is Israel's nuclear program. Precisely because Israel chose not to be a signatory on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Israel is able to deny unfettered access to their nuclear installations with no repercussions or, pardon the pun, fallout.
This is what Iran is calling the double standard and it is eating them up.
The obvious fault in the Iranian argument and with Iran's point of view is that it compares Israel, the only Western democracy in the Middle East with Iran - a theocracy. In Israel there are checks and balances and rule of law. In Iran there is no equivalent, the ultimate head of everything, the unquestioned leader of it all, is the Supreme Leader, the Grand Ayatollah. But fact and logic have nothing to do with Iran's objective or argument and little to do with the stated and unspoken purposes of the conference.
For Ahmadinejad and for Iran, it is all about illusion. Israel is the aggressor and Israel is the only country in the Middle East with advanced nuclear technology. Therefore, Iran will help and will sponsor any other country interested in obtaining or advancing nuclear technology.
The plan is working. Ahmadinejad is slowly and effectively chipping away at the foundation of the agenda set by the West. Whether we like it or not, Iran is successfully challenging the United States for the position of leader of the world.
They are dividing the world in to nations who support the West and nations who support Iran. Stay tuned for many more Iranian machinations that will rally nations against US and Western goals.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Sunday, June 26, 2011

Ahmadinejad Terrorism Conference

Sunday June 26, 2011

I've Been Thinking:
Iranian President Ahmadinejad addressed a conference in Iran about international terror. 60 different countries including Sudan, represented by President Omar el Bashir, were in attendance. Bashir is wanted by the World Court for crimes against humanity.
Ahmadinejad's address was filled with wacko assertions. He said that 9/11 was a conspiracy and if only we had the voice recorder, the world would know. He said that the Holocaust was a conspiracy.
Thinkers are never permitted to question the Holocaust, he said, and in that way 9/11 is very similar to the Holocaust.

Here are 2 of his quotes:
"If the black box of the 9/11 incident and Holocaust were opened, then some of the truth would be exposed, but the United States does not allow this."
"There are those who believe that the goal of 9/11 was to revive the Zionist regime, reinforce stability in the region, divert US public opinion from the poor economic state. In terms of reference and benefits, 9/11 is very similar to the Holocaust."
I told you it was wacko.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Saturday, June 25, 2011

Cataclysmic Implcations

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

On Thursday US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton testified in front of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.

While her testimony was not a surprise, the implications are cataclysmic.

Clinton explained why the United States is involved in negotiations with the Taliban. She called it "unpleasant but necessary." From the US point of view, the purpose of talks with the Taliban is to secure peaceful interaction between the sides.

All the Taliban want is to get the United States out - and if talks will help that along, so be it.

The problem with these talks is not the total myopia of the United States, I've come to expect that. The problem is that this paradigm can now be used to force Israel to talk with Hamas.

Logic would dictate that if the United States can talk to the Taliban then Israel should be able to speak to Hamas. But logic plays no role in the thoughts or actions of Hamas vis a vis Israel.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Friday, June 24, 2011

Abbas May Compromise

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Word is, from a high level Palestinian source and reported in YNet, that Abbas is ready to compromise.
The Abbas compromise would be the best kind - the kind where everyone wins.
According to the report Abbas is willing to accept a partial Israeli settlement freeze and then sit down and talk with Israel.
Until now Abbas has insisted on a total settlement freeze. For reasons that are obvious to everyone who understands the region, a total freeze is very unlikely and near impossible. But a partial freeze is doable.
By accepting a partial freeze Abbas can come to the table. He can reduce if not quite eliminate the pressure upon him to declare a state in September at the UN Security Council.
This truly is a win - win situation for everyone except, of course, those die hard extremists who refuse to accept the concept of compromise. Unfortunately the compromise-naysayers are a very large part of the audience before whom Abbas has had to play these past two years.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Thursday, June 23, 2011

Hezbollah Prepping for War

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
YNET reported yesterday that sources close to Hezbollah say that Hezbollah is preparing for war with Israel.
The upshot is that Hezbollah needs to relieve the pressure on Syrian President Bashar Assad. You see, Hezbollah needs Assad and they want to make certain that Assad stays in power.
The West may have an urge to oust Assad, much as they are trying to do with Ghadaffi. That would signal real danger and even a crisis of existence for Hezbollah. Syria sponsors Hezbollah and a newly-placed Sunni government would not look kindly on Shiite Hezbollah.
Hezbollah is preparing to make certain that no foreign soldiers enter the region. They figure that a major distraction - like a full scale assault on Israel, would lend Assad enough time to regroup and re-strengthen and would relieve the pressure and divert attention so that their Syrian sponsor could get his country back to order.

This is a very pessimistic view of foreign affairs and conflicts. It is also very much a part of the bag of tricks that Hezbollah can and will, if necessary, use.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Not An Arab Spring

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Meir Dagan just retired as the head of the Mossad, Israel's clandestine service.
Dagan has been making comments that have many people irked.

Last week Dagan said that bombing Iran is just "dumb." He said that an attack against Iran will also bring about attacks from Lebanon and from Hezbollah.
Then yesterday while receiving an honorary degree from Netanyah College in Israel Dagan spoke about the changes happening in the region. He warned against coining terms like "Arab Spring" and "Democratic Tsunami" to describe current events in the Arab world. He explained that these events are actually existing rifts and not democratic at all. In that, Dagan is correct.
It is customary for the head of the Mossad and for other secret agencies to maintain a cooling off period after they leave their positions. Past former Mossad directors have remained silent about policy and politics.
Dagan is different. And people are listening.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Dylan Concert in Israel

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Bob Dylan performed in Israel yesterday. The concert was a huge success in more ways than one.
Dylan is helping to keep Israel as an important stop on the pop cultural map of the world. If stand out stars like Dylan are not afraid to visit Israel, not afraid for security reasons and not afraid of the political fallout, neither should their fans be afraid.
Dylan turned 70 in May and this trip to Israel is part of a 2 month concert tour. It was his third concert tour of Israel. His first tour was in 1987, the second in 1993. During the 1960's he visited Israel as a regular tourist.
Many pop stars come to Israel and every one of them receives enormous pressure to cancel their trips. There are organizations that make it their raison d'être to pressure artists to cancel their trips to Israel.
Congratulations Bob Dylan for not succumbing to pressure. That means more power to you!
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Monday, June 20, 2011

US Talking to Taliban

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
President Hamid Karazai of Afghan went public announcing that both his government and the United States have negotiated with the Taliban.

And yesterday US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates confirmed the announcement.
I can see the downside of talking to the Taliban. But what is the upside?
The promise is peace.
The objective is to stop the fighting between the Taliban and the Afghans and the United States.
The reality is that it is highly unlikely that an agreement can be negotiated between the Taliban and the US and the Afghans. The sides are too far apart. Even Gates in his comments said that the Taliban will only respond to military force.
But sometimes, even in politics and diplomacy, it's the effort that counts.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Sunday, June 19, 2011

Elections in Egypt

By Micah Halpern

I've been Thinking:
Temporary Prime Minister of Egypt, Essem Sharaf, has called for a postponement of the elections set to take place in September.
Sharaf made a very cogent and convincing argument. The Supreme Military Council should follow his lead.
Sharafa said that more time is needed to build the infrastructure of democracy. He said that this early election will only favor the Muslim Brotherhood. He continued that the country voted to amend the constitution by an overwhelming 77% - but time is needed to make those changes.
The Muslim Brotherhood, on the other hand, wants elections ASAP.

The Supreme Military Council says they are not taking a side - but by not taking a side they are siding with the Brotherhood.
The Brotherhood is the best organized political group in Egypt. They represent about 20% of the country and in a parliamentary election they would fare very well.
An early election could mean the first and last free election in Egypt and the end of any democracy.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Saturday, June 18, 2011

Women Call for Right to Drive

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Saudi Arabia has done its best to insulate itself from the political movements and the unrest enveloping most of the Middle East.
The tensions in Saudi Arabia are clannish and tribal - they are also religious with rivalry between Sunni and Shiites. But now something interesting is happening in Saudi Arabia.
Traces of political freedom are emerging and that is a phenomenon worth addressing.
Traditionally, women in Saudi Arabia have very few rights. Yesterday a call went out asking women to take the wheel. Women, who are not permitted to drive, were asked to drive. One twitter report had only woman violating the law and driving before sunrise - a law that is strictly enforced by the very fierce modesty/morality squads.
Saudi Arabia is very much a leader in the Middle East and it is essential that the West understand the real Saudi Arabia. It is an extremely conservative monarchy. It is against all issues of equality. It will act to protect itself.
Micah@Micahhalpern.com

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Friday, June 17, 2011

Russia & China Defend Iran

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
China and Russia have signed an agreement.
They are in sync on a very important issue of foreign affairs.
Both Russia and China agree that Iran should have the right to develop nuclear energy. They will propose a UN Security Council resolution to that effect in the next few weeks.

Iran is has signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Part of the treaty enables all member states the ability to develop nuclear energy. But all the development must be transparent.
The problem with Iran and with Russia and China's point of view is that Iran refuses to permit unfettered access of the technology.
That's not playing by the rules. But then again, when did Iran ever play by the rules.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Thursday, June 16, 2011

Iran Launches New Satellite

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Iran launched another satellite. This one is called the Rasad 1.

The satellite was 100% home grown and Iranian TV covered the launch.
The world has focused on Iran's nuclear development. Their space program should also be a prime focus of our attention. The Iranian space program has flown under the radar for years - most of us do not realize how dangerous the program really is.
The Iranian space program illustrates two important factors.
# 1: These satellites spy on the entire world. These are not weather satellites or agricultural satellites. They are spy satellites.
#2: There are only a scant few countries in the world that have this or similar technology.
Also important to note is that launching a satellite uses the same exact technology used to launch non-conventional weapons.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Wednesday, June 15, 2011

EU Parliament Says No To Palestinian Declaration

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Jerzy Buzek, President of the European Union Parliament, was in Ramallah yesterday.
In his press conference after meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Buzek said that it might be "more dangerous" to attempt a unilateral declaration of Palestinian Statehood in September at the United Nations General Assembly.
The EU Parliament is notoriously anti-Israel and pro-Palestinian. So when Buzek tells Abbas not to declare, you can bet that the message will be heard and will be well considered.
Buzek is letting us all know that Europe is no longer supporting the Palestinian Declaration of Statehood. And he is getting Abbas off the hook.
Abbas knows the declaration is a bad idea and he needs a reason to tell his people why he may need to withdraw the plan for unilateral declaration. This announcement by the EU Parliamentary President may actually be a blessing - for everyone.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Blogger Hoax Uncovered

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
A very popular blogger from Syria named Amina Arraf turns out to be a 40 year old American living in Scotland named Tom MacMaster.

The hoax was unveiled yesterday.
Tom, using the persona of a lesbian in Syria named Amina, had been chronicling the oppression sponsored by the Syrian regime.
MacMaster admitted that he created the character and blogged as a lesbian Syrian woman in order to educate the world about the abuses of the tyrannical regime in Syria.
The blog smacked of professional propaganda from the outset. That should have sounded the warning bell for all those who read it.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Monday, June 13, 2011

Iran Hosting A Nuke Conference

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Iran opened a two day conference yesterday - a conference on nuclear non-proliferation. The conference is called "Nuclear Energy for All - Nuclear Weapons for None."
This is a classic example of the pot calling the kettle black. The real purpose of the Iranian conference is to call attention to Israel's nuclear program - which has always been cloaked in secrecy.

Representatives from 40 countries are in attendance at this conference. It is Iran's second conference on nuclear non-proliferation. The first took place just a few months ago. That conference, like this one, was called "nuclear Energy for All - Nuclear Weapons for None."
Iran has mastered the art of worldwide public relations. The Iranians are hosting a conference on nuclear proliferation and pointing their fingers at Israel in order to deflect peoples' attention from their own nuclear program.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Sunday, June 12, 2011

Bibi to Europe

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is off to Europe for a few days. The purpose of the trip is to convince European countries to back off with their support for the declaration of a Palestinian state in the UN General Assembly in September.
It is about time. Israel should have been out lobbying Europe against the declaration since the Palestinians first announced their September plan.
Netanyahu will visit Italy, Hungary, Rumania and Poland.

These countries are not the most powerful in Europe, but they do set a tone. If Netanyahu can secure these countries he will be well on the way to mounting a significant diplomatic beachhead.
Israel has already made serious headway with France, Germany and The United Kingdom. Actually, it was the Palestinians who helped Israel by declaring a unity government with Hamas and the PA.
The declaration with Hamas has made the new PA a pariah in Germany, France and England.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Saturday, June 11, 2011

Arab Mob Swarms Settlement

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
On Friday a group of 200 Palestinian Arabs carrying clubs, iron chains and Palestinian flags stormed the West Bank settlement of Gaon HaYarden.
The handful of settlers who tried to stave off the attackers survived until the Israeli army came to rescue them. But not before the attackers burned the tent used for prayer and all the prayer books.
The settlement is illegal. The attackers were bent on doing serious harm. This entire scene evinces historical parallels of Arab mobs massacring Jews in their homes.
Before the creation of the State of Israel there was a long history of Arab thugs targeting Jewish settlements, Jewish homes and Jewish pedestrians.
The greatest shock surrounding this invasion is that almost no voices came out and condemned the Arab mob. Where are the leaders of the free world, leaders who should stand up and cry out against such hatred?
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Friday, June 10, 2011

Abbas Does Not Want UN Declaration

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
An adviser to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas made public that the Palestinians feel trapped in the September UN declaration.
The Palestinians are victims of their own publicity. At this point, given their current read and analysis of the situation, a unilateral declaration of statehood would hurt - rather than help, their cause.
The problem Abbas faces now is: how does he climb down from the high tree that he so publicly scaled. If he backs out he risks a serious credibility issue.
Momentum has been building and many countries are pushing the Palestinian leadership to declare statehood. But now, finally, Palestinian leadership recognizes the diplomatic and political risks that taking the issue to the UN General Assembly in September entail.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Thursday, June 9, 2011

White House To Boycott Durban Conference

Tuesday June 7, 2011


I’ve Been Thinking:

The White House has announced that they will boycott the United Nations Racism Conference scheduled for September. This conference smacks too much of the 2001 Durban Conference.

The Durban Conference was a hatefest. Its purpose was to slam Israel in the international arena. Practically no attention was paid to any of the real human rights challenges.

Ever since 2001 the United States has not participated in any of these conferences. They have made no secret about why they are not participatory. These conferences against racism and for human rights go to great lengths to point the finger at Israel - almost to the exclusion of any other violations in the world.

Since the United States walked out on Durban, the West has said enough. Now Western countries want to see the agendas and the resolutions as well as the speeches before the conference.

Conference coordinators have not yet acquiesced to that request.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Wednesday, June 8, 2011

PA To Push For UN Declaration

Wednesday June 8, 2011


I’m Predicting:

Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat says that the Palestinians people must focus on getting Palestine to become a full member of United Nations.

This announcement is a clear declaration of intent.

The Palestinians are moving ahead at a full gallop in their attempt to get full recognition from the United Nations. They are willing to jeopardize almost all of their collateral with the United States and other Western countries in order to attain this aim.

In the end, they will not achieve their goal. The United States will certainly veto the move in the Security Council.

Without the Security Council it is impossible to get approval.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Egypt Will Try Mubarak

By Micah Halpern

Tuesday June 6, 2011

I've Been Thinking:
On August 17th Hosni Mubarak and his two sons will be put on trial.
They will be prosecuted for corruption and for the deaths of 18 protesters, killed during the revolution that ousted Mubarak

Prosecuting all three Mubarak men may result in blow back from the Egyptian street. The street is the Arabic equivalent of the vox populi or the voice of the people. The people of Egypt may be satisfied with placing the Mubarak sons on trial, but there may be political problems with placing the senior Mubarak on trial.
The sons are young and they are seen as opportunists while the father is seen as a sickly old man who spent decades fighting for Egypt.

If the current leadership overplays their hand it may come back to hurt them.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Friday, June 3, 2011

Iran Parliament Condemns Ahmadinejad

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
The Iranian Parliament voted to bring Ahmadinejad to court on Wednesday.
This all comes about as a result of the power struggle between Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader. The Iranian parliament is siding against Ahmadinejad and with the Grand Ayatollah.
In their last squabble Ahmadinejad fired the minister of oil and then took his portfolio. The parliament agreed that this act by the president was a serious power grab. They determined that the grab was illegal and now they recommending that he be tried for his actions.
In an earlier incident the Iranian president fired the minster of intelligence only to have the Grand Ayatollah rehire him immediately. Then Ahmadinejad boycotted three of his own cabinet meetings because he knew the old-new minister would be present.
The situation does not bode well for Ahmadinejad.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Thursday, June 2, 2011

Situation Getting Worse in Syria

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
The situation seems to be getting even more bleak in Syria.
Human rights activists in the town of Rastan are reporting that 41 people died on Wednesday - including a 4 year old girl. This is a huge escalation in violence against the protestors. On Tuesday it was reported that snipers had assumed positions on roofs and on other high points in the town.
Due to international pressure, Syria promised that those who have been arrested will be let free. At the same time, they are clamping down on protests and organizers. This is all a typical Syrian double act.
Make a public gesture for one group and then in private, move in the exact opposite direction.
Classically Syrian.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Egypt: No Gas To Israel

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Israel has refused to pay Egypt the new adjusted natural gas prices they are asking. Now Egypt is refusing to deliver the natural gas.

Since the ouster of Mubarak, the new Egypt has upped the price of natural gas for Israel. They also demanded more money from Spain and
Spain capitulated and agreed to the price.
Israel has threatened to take the dispute to international arbitration. The Egyptians are not afraid because the precedent was set when Spain agreed to pay the higher price.
Egypt feels they are justified in increasing their prices and bringing them come closer in line with the market value.
Egypt claims that the natural resources are theirs and that they can increase the prices whenever they deem it necessary.
Israel countered that a treaty and a deal were both mutually agreed upon. The treaty should not be abrogated and the price of natural gas should not rise.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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