Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Jordan Queen Calls Syria 1st Lady

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Queen Rania of Jordan recently called Asma Assad, the wife of Bashar Assad, President of Syria.
The Queen of Jordan called asked about the situation in Syria and said that she hoping the life of the wife of the president was not in jeopardy.
Asma responded by saying that "our situation is excellent and we have no concerns." Asma then said to Rania of Jordan "but we have heard worrying reports from your country and wish to make sure that you are doing ok."

Asma Assad is British born and educated and spent time at Kings College. Before marrying Assad she worked for the Deutsche Bank and for JP Morgan.

Rania was born in Palestine, in the city of Tulkarm. She was educated at the New English school in Kuwait and the American University in Cairo. Before her marriage she worked for Citibank and for Apple.

The phone conversation was reported by the British Arabic Daily Al Quds and the source was a Jordanian contact.

This conversation highlights some important points. A stoic attitude and stiff upper lip are part of the role female leadership assumes in this part of the world. And Asma has not left the country and has no plans to do so - which means she really does feel secure in Syria.

Most telling of all is that Asma Assad does not feel the need to seek refuge next door - and actually voices her concern over the volatile situation in Jordan and feels comfortable enough to speak of her concerns for the well being of the Jordanian queen.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Iran Oil Exports to Drop

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Oil experts announced yesterday that the year 2012 will see a 33% drop in Iranian crude oil sales.

In January the European Union decided that as of July they will totally cut their Iranian crude imports.

In addition China, India and Japan who together amount to about 45% of Iran's crude sales, are agreeing to each cut their imports by 10%.

The White House is elated as are those leaders from Western Europe who have been pushing the boycott.

What is missing from the equation is that there are other countries increasing their oil imports from Iran. And countries like China and India often change their minds and behaviors when it comes to Iranian oil. Earlier in February China dropped their imports of Iranian crude - and barrel per barrel India picked up the slack.

Think of it as a see saw, except that this is not child's play.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Monday, February 27, 2012

Egypt Adjourns Case Against Americans

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

This morning 3 Qassam rockets were shot from Gaza and landed in Israel.

The rockets landed in the Ashkelon beach region. Luckily, no one was hurt.

Incidents of this kind are not covered in the world press, they are hardly even covered in the local, domestic, Israeli press. Deaths are injuries are covered, not near misses. And yet, 3 rockets coming over a border with the intention of killing and terrifying as many people as possible is more than a casual incident.

These are acts of war and require retaliation. And the Israeli Air Force struck back attacking 2 sites in Gaza.

But something is wrong with the picture.

The US and the world are pushing Israel to make concessions and compromises and the Palestinians are creating unity between Hamas and the PA. And all the while Hamas keeps shooting rockets into Israel.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Sunday, February 26, 2012

Rockets Shot From Gaza Into Israel

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

This morning 3 Qassam rockets were shot from Gaza and landed in Israel.

The rockets landed in the Ashkelon beach region. Luckily, no one was hurt.

Incidents of this kind are not covered in the world press, they are hardly even covered in the local, domestic, Israeli press. Deaths and injuries are covered, not near misses. And yet, 3 rockets coming over a border with the intention of killing and terrifying as many people as possible is more than a casual incident.

These are acts of war and require retaliation. And the Israeli Air Force struck back attacking 2 sites in Gaza.

But something is wrong with the picture.

The US and the world are pushing Israel to make concessions and compromises and the Palestinians are creating unity between Hamas and the PA. And all the while Hamas keeps shooting rockets into Israel.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Saturday, February 25, 2012

Jordan Putting Up Patriots

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday's French Le Figaro had a very important piece quoting a European defense expert who says that Jordan will be stationing 4 Patriot anti-missile batteries on the border with Syria near to Israel.

The Patriots were purchased from Germany.

The missiles are an obvious defense against Syria. They are also very good for Israel. Any Syrian aircraft attempting to enter Jordan in order to cross into Israel will be locked on and shot.

Countries in the region are starting to see Syria as a real threat to regional stability. That means that they must defend themselves from Syria. It also means that Israel be safer because of it. The irony is not lost.For eleven months the border between Syria and Jordan has been quiet and simple to traverse. That was then, now, everything has changed.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Friday, February 24, 2012

Israel's New Super -Sub

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday Israel leaked some very highly secret information.

Israel has always closely guarded the nature of their submarine fleet. And yet, it was reported in a German newspaper and then in the Israeli press, that a new secret weapon has been added to the Israeli super sub fleet.

It is called Tanin which is Hebrew for alligator. It is a new Dolphin class German sub with Israeli modifications. Israel is scheduled to receive three of these subs over the next three years.

These subs are supposed to be totally cloaked - they have no acoustic signature and cannot be traced or found. They can spend long periods of time underwater. And they have diesel and hydrogen conversion systems that allow the subs to produce their own fuel.

The Tanin is supposed to be able to launch nuclear warheads from anywhere.

Israel will start test deploying their new super sub very soon.

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Thursday, February 23, 2012

PA Hamas Unite

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas leader Halad Mashaal met with Palestinian Authority President Abbas in Cairo on Wednesday. They met to iron out problems with the unity agreements they had created a few weeks ago.

After the meeting Hamas issued a formal statement saying, "the movement (Hamas) is devoted to ending the division and uniting on the basis of the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people and the brave resistance."

Two things need to be clear. Number one is that Hamas leadership in Gaza is not in favor of this agreement. They will need to be convinced and cajoled into accepting it. Number two is that the expression "the brave resistance" means "terror."

Whenever you see the word "resistance" in Arabic, in this context, it means "armed attacks against Israelis and Jews." Always. With no exceptions.

This is not Mahatma Gandhi of the Middle East. This is Hamas.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Iran's Oil Exports

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

China and India have announced that they will be cutting their crude oil imports from Iran by 10%.

Together China and India total 35%- 45% of Iran's oil export so a reduction of 10% each would be a significant drop in oil revenues. A reduction of that size could really hurt Iran.

But ... Iran exports between 2.1 - 2.14 million barrels of oil per day, depending on the seasonal demand.

Earlier in February China reduced their Iranian oil imports and India grabbed the excess to meet the exact amount of China's reduction. Meanwhile, South Africa doubled its oil imports from Iran to 100,000 barrels per day.

This all means that even as pressure to squeeze Iran increases in the West, Iranian oil exports remain largely unchanged. Iran finds other willing importers.

The only chance of effectively pressuring Iran is to get China and India to follow through and reduce their oil imports by even more than the 10% they have announced. The way to truly hurt Iran is to have China and India break, or at least drastically reduce their ties with Iran.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Iran Destroyer in Syria

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

On Thursday an Iranian destroyer and supply ship passed through the Suez Canal.

As predicted, those ships are now docked in Syria. A destroyer in that position can shoot at almost any rebel stronghold.

More importantly, those two ships working together have spectacular computer and satellite resources and the ability to listen in on and sabotage communications.

Meanwhile, sources in Egypt and from Syrian rebel groups announced that their communications systems have been disrupted. They said they are no longer able to communicate with one another freely.

According to a report in the newspaper Asharq al Awsat, a daily Arabic paper out of London, an Egyptian security source commented that Syrian army and intelligence is no longer able to totally monitor the communication of the rebels.

Now with the help of the Iranian ships, they can both listen and disrupt the systems of communication.

Disrupting communications is a very important strategy. Syrian powers are not interested in learning about the plans of the opposition. They are interested in disabling the opposition and in weakening them.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Monday, February 20, 2012

Jordan Refugee Camp for Syrians

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan has set up a refugee camp along the Syrian border in anticipation of the masses of people expected to flee Syria as the violence against them increases.

Israel is also prepared for a potential onslaught of Syrian refugees.

It is clear that the refugees will be divided into two groups. The first group will be composed of those Syrians who were caught in the fray and the fighting and are running away to save their families.

The second group will be composed of Assad cronies. If the tide changes, members of the oppressive regime may very well need to run from the revolution in order to save their own lives.

Israel is prepared for that eventuality, too. Why Israel? Why not Syria, Jordan or other Arab countries? Because these refugees would most certainly be killed if they were to flee to Syria, Jordan or anywhere else in the Arab world.

The irony of it all is that the very people who have fought Israel and who refuse to accept Israel, realize that their only refuge is the Jewish State of Israel.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Sunday, February 19, 2012

Trial Set for Americans in Egypt

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt announced the trial date for the 43 NGO pro-democracy workers they have under arrest. The date is Sunday, February 26.

19 of those arrested are US citizens, charged with being funded by outside money to agitate and interfere in Egyptian politics. One of those arrested and charged is Sam LaHood, the son of US Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood.

LaHood is Egypt Director of the International Republican Institute. Along with others NGOs like Freedom House, their mandate is to spend time teaching about democracy.

The White House and Congress are livid. President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton have all raised the issue - and the Egyptians refuse to budge.

The trial will go forward. It will be a show trial. Egypt wants to show the world that current leadership is not bending to the United States and the West.

This trial is an excuse to prove a point of national pride. Egyptian pride will cause many innocent people to suffer.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Saturday, February 18, 2012

Iranian Destroyer Thru Suez

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

An Iranian naval destroyer and a supply ship sailed through the Suez Canal on Thursday.

The Iranians are probably on their way to Syria. Syria and Iran are united in a clear link against the Western world.

Egyptian military leadership gave permission to the Iranians to pass through the canal. Last year at this very time a set of naval vessels also passed through Suez. They went up the Mediterranean coast and then returned through the Canal and went back home.

Israel watched very carefully as these ships passed.

I have no doubt that this destroyer is on its way to lend support to Syria.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Friday, February 17, 2012

Egypt Responds to US

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

Egypt is responding in very interesting ways to the threat by the United States to pull $1.3 billion in aid if the 19 NGO pro-democratic activists they have taken prisoner are not freed.

First: they said that they will be forced to reconsider their peace treaty with Israel if the aid is not delivered.

Second: the head of a major Islamic institution of Salafists, a group that garnered about 30% of the parliament vote, offered an interesting suggestion. He said that every Egyptian should donate $1.66 to help offset the loss of the aid.

The math is just funny. There are approximately 81 million people in Egypt so, if everyone gave $1.66 to the cause the total amount would be about $125 million which is hardly $1.3 billion.

The sad reality is that the average GDP annual income in Egypt is $2892. I did not forget to add the zeroes, that is their average income.

Aid to Egypt has fluctuated over the past decade going from as high as $2.075 billion to as low as $1.5 billion.

Egypt is making all the wrong decisions and they must suffer the consequences. If the United States pulls their aid they lose their leverage. But even with the generous offer of $1.3 billion, it does not appear as if the US has much leverage over Egypt, anyway.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Thursday, February 16, 2012

Hamas Assad Spat

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

Al Jazeera reported today that Hamas politburo chief Halad Mashaal avoided a meeting with Syrian president Bashar Assad.

This is the second time in the past two weeks that Mashaal has skirted a meeting with Assad.

Despite the fact that for years Assad protected and sponsored Hamas, Mashaal does not want to now be seen as supporting Assad.

Iran is livid and so is Assad. Iran believes that given all the money they have dumped into Hamas they should at least be loyal to Assad. But no.

Hamas has had to relocate their headquarters and they are no longer in Damascus. Now Hamas has a major office, just opened in Qatar, and a smaller one in Amman, Jordan.

Iran thinks that Mashaal and Hamas have shown their true colors.
Hamas representatives have visited Iran several times over the past few weeks to plead the Palestinian cause - but their words have fallen on deaf ears.

That brings us back to Mashaal missing a meeting with Assad. Mashaal need to steer clear of Assad, but his benefactors want him close. Mashaal is in a very difficult position.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Wednesday, February 15, 2012

White House Budget

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The White House presented its budget. Some things will knock your socks off.

The White House decided to go ahead and give $1.3 billion dollars to Egypt. The allocation is billed as reward for progressing down the path of democracy and having successful elections. The problem is that the Egyptians elected non-democratic parties. The Muslim Brotherhood and the Nouri party combined took over 70% of the parliament. And by the way, the Nouri party makes the Brotherhood look tame and liberal.

There's more. Egypt is still included in the White House budget despite having arresting 43 NGO workers. 19 are Americans and one is the son of the Secretary of Transportation.

It continues. $800,000 million is slated to go towards furthering the Arab Spring, but it is unclear where and what that means.

Meanwhile, Israel will get $3.1 billion, but their short range missile program was cut.

The US is cutting their only friend and the only democratic state in the region and is dumping $1.3 billion on an unknown entity (the New Egypt) that has elected Muslim extremists.

To round out allocation for the Middle East: Iraq is getting $11.8 Afghanistan $4.6 and Pakistan $2.4 billion. Jordan is only getting $300 million.

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Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Iran & Israel & Terror

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

There was a terrorist attack in New Delhi, India yesterday that targeted Israeli embassy personnel. Two Israelis were injured when their minivan left the embassy en route to pick up school children.

At the very same moment in Tbilisi, Georgia a bomb was discovered in the car of an Israeli embassy employee. The bomb was disarmed and no one was hurt.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu blamed Iran and Hezbollah for these attacks and for other recent attempted attacks against Israeli diplomats in Azerbaijan and Thailand.

Iran lashed back. Spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Ramin Mehmanparast said: "The Zionist regime has a high record of criminal actions against humanity and it is the first suspect of any terrorist operation in the world." "Tehran condemns terrorism in the strongest terms as Iran has been a victim of terrorism."

Understanding Iran's response is critical in understanding Iran's character.

Iran wants to condemn terror. Iran wants to appear above it all. Iran wants it to appear as if they, too, are victims of terror.

Most of all, and this is as popular a theme for Iran as it is bewildering for us - Iran wants it to be known that Israel is a terror sponsor. Iran is now claiming that Israel attacked Israelis - in order to make Iran look bad.

The Iranians are building a foundation of conspiracy. It is the same theme with a few variations that Iran circulated after 9-11.

This logic is very popular in the Muslim world.

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Monday, February 13, 2012

Iran & Azerbaijan

By Micah Halpern

I've Been thinking:

The Iranian foreign minister summoned the ambassador from Azerbaijan yesterday.

The minister told the ambassador to stop helping the Mossad.

The meeting was precipitated by a news story that appeared in the Sunday Times of London saying that the epicenter of intelligence gathering against Iran is Baku, Azerbaijan.

Based on that story, Iran is castigating their neighbor.

This is not a new charge. The Islamic world has repeatedly condemned Azerbaijan for their openness to the West and their friendly tone towards Israel. After a recent terror attack in Azerbaijan those who claimed responsibility said the attack was a response to the unusually good relations Azerbaijan has with Israel.

Azerbaijan has figured out how to modernize their county and how to approach and befriend the West. The question now is whether the Islamist movement will deter them from moving any closer.

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Sunday, February 12, 2012

Iran Internet is Down

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Mehr News Agency, a mouthpiece of the government even though it is often referred to as semi-official, announced on Saturday that 30 million Iranians are without internet.

They said the downage hit on Thursday.

The report said that the telephone communication ministry which is responsible for the internet - had nothing to do with the failure. I believe them.

Iran has been known to down sites and stop usage of foreign web access like facebook. But they admit doing it. It last happened during the elections when the government wanted to limit the ability of the opposition parties and Iranian youth to organize and communicate. The best way for them to accomplish their goals was to shut down the internet.

This could be a worm, or a virus, or an outside source. Whatever it is - it is taking a long time to isolate and fix. Imagine four days without internet.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Saturday, February 11, 2012

Iran's Newest Submarines

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Iran just added two more submarines to their Ghadari sub fleet. The name Ghadari is taken from Ghadar Khumm, a holy site for Shiite Islam.

The two new subs bring the total of light subs to, best guess estimate since the Iranians are not publishing this information, about twelve.

These are all domestically produced mini submarines. They do not have long lasting underwater staying power. They are designed specifically for use in the Straits of Hormuz and accordingly, are able to navigate the very shallow waters on the sides of the Straits.

These subs are modeled on the North Korean sub the Sang-O and the Italian mini sub the Littoral. The technology is highly sophisticated.

The Iranians also have three much larger German that are pretty much ineffective in the Straits.

Bottom line on these subs: Iran is gearing up for conflict in the Straits.

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Friday, February 10, 2012

Hamas in Gaza Reject PA Unity

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Hamas in the Gaza strip has rejected the unity agreement that was brokered by Khaled Mashaal and Mahmoud Abbas for their exiled Politburo and the Palestinian Authority.

The agreement sets up an interim government in which Abbas is both the president and the prime minister. The objective is to move to new elections.

Hamas' parliamentarians, including Prime Minister Ismael Haniyeh, say that the agreement does not take into account two very important items.

The first item is that Hamas won the election on January 25, 2006 and received the plurality of the votes for parliament. And yet, they have never been able to govern.

The second is that that according to the Palestinian constitution the position of president and prime minister must be held by two different people. The reason for this law was to make certain that there would broad based accountability and that no single power controlled the reigns of leadership.

I am in no way suggesting that Hamas is a paragon of democratic values, but they do have two very serious points here.

What is the reason for an election if you cast aside the results?

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Thursday, February 9, 2012

What is Happening Inside Syria

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

There is no doubt that innocent people are being slaughtered in Syria.

And there are people who want to oust Syrian dictator Bashar Assad. Most of those slaughtered have been, and will continue to be, those who do not support Assad or who are working to oust Assad.

The foreign minister of Russia came to Syria to dress him down Assad and make him promise to stop the killings of innocents. And that same day more innocent people were killed in the city of Homs.

Against that back drop there are huge rallies in Damascus in support of Assad.

This is a tale of two different Syrias.

One Syria feels oppressed and wants to revolt. The other Syria is part of the establishment and wants things to stay the same with only cosmetic changes.

Syria is a very small country. In a country of about 23 million people, only 3 metropolitan areas have over a million residents - Aleppo with more than 2 million, Damascus with 1.7 million and Homs with 1.2 million.

Aleppo has been quiet during the entire revolt and is thought to be with the leadership. Damascus has had some riots and excitement but it has been pretty quiet and this city, too, is thought to side with the leadership. Homs has been a hotbed of anti-Assad activity as has been the city of Hama with its 790,000 residents.

Looking around Syria, it does not appear that everyone is on the "oust Assad" train.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Jewish Arbor Day


by Micah Halpern

Column:

Tu b'Shvat is called the Jewish Arbor Day. But the timeline is backwards.

Arbor Day was first celebrated on April 10th in the year 1872, in the state of Nebraska, by J. Sterling Morton. Since then many countries around the world have adopted the idea and created their own Arbor Day. On that first Arbor Day it is estimated that Nebraskans planted one million trees.

There is no doubt that the Hebrew birthday of the trees far preceded the modern celebration.

Modern Zionists, founders of the State of Israel, grabbed on to the date Tu b'Shvat, the 15th day of the month of Shvat, as a way to bridge the past with the present. They wanted to extend Jewish tradition and its connectedness to the land to their modern ideas of cultivation, trees and ownership.

Tu B'Shvat is first mentioned in the Mishna of Rosh Hashannah during an important discussion over distinctions within the Jewish lunar calendar. The discussion centered on the question of what is the start of the year - is it Nissan, the month that houses the Passover holiday and ushers in the spring or is it the month of Tishrei, when Rosh HaShannah, the New Year, is celebrated.

The Mishna rules that there are four New Years. One, Rosh Hashannah or Tishrei, the new year for the world and the time the world was created. Two, Passover or Nissan, the new year for freedom and rebirth. Three, a new year to commemorate the coronation of kings. Four, Tu B'Shvat, the new year for the trees.

During their thousands of years of Jewish life in the Diaspora Jews yearned for many things. The yearning to return to Jerusalem and rebuild the Temple was primary and they often repeated the phrase L' Shana Ha'ba b'Yerushalyim, next year in Jerusalem. And they also yearned to plant trees in the Holy Land and they clung to a tradition that respected, even revered, nature.

The planting of trees was easier to conceptualize. The rebuilding of the Temple was ethereal and difficult to understand.

Eating "bokser" or dried carob and thinking of acacia trees, olive trees and date trees was much more practical. So when Herzl created the modern Zionist movement one of the items that he established was a land bank that bought land and planted trees. This resonated with European Jews. It was, for them, a modernized fruition of Tu B'Shvat.

That was the precursor to JNF, the Jewish National Fund - the official gardeners and foresters of the State of Israel. Every Jewish parent and grandparent had a little blue box in their home.

It was the JNF "pushka", the charity box. And every year those boxes were filled and sent to Israel in order to plant trees and reclaim the land. And school kids received certificates with little stamps to lick and stick on a tree announcing proudly that you had bought a tree to be planted in a forest in Israel. (Hardly a forest the way we imagined in North America.)

Tu b'Shvat enabled Jews to build the land, it transformed the Jewish people from victims to masters of their own destiny. When we put money in the blue pushka it was not only to cultivate the land, it was to cultivate a new generation of Jews proudly called Israelis.

The myth was so deeply in bread that a delinquent Israeli youth might plunder and pillage, but they would never, ever, pick a wild flower.

And there was nothing wrong with that image. But today, that very same image, that very same forest, cultivated with those trees, is seen as a symbol of occupation by the Palestinian.

How could something so good be interpreted as being so oppressive?

The answer is simple. The original idealistic Zionists paid very little attentions to local Arabs. For the founders of Israel settling the land and buying land and cultivating land and planting trees was seen only through their context. And to the Arab residents the Zionists were few in number and seen as weird Europeans who spoke and dressed differently. They even had women working the fields dressed in shorts and shirts.

The clash would only happen when it was too late to create any real rapprochement. When the Arabs realized that the Zionists were in Israel to stay, by the time they figured out that the power had shifted - the locals no longer had any real influence. Today's tensions and what is referred to as the "situation" are an outgrowth of that very realization. The power is now in the hands of those who bought the land and cultivated it, those who expanded the arable land and planted and then planted more and more. Those who built modern cities, not those who once lived on and then sold the land.

This is all an outgrowth of Tu b'Shvat

The victims in the success story called Tu b'Shvat are the Arabs still living in the area. They were, and are still, ill equipped to handle the modern challenges that Israel presents. The best solution would be to co-op the locals and help them engage in the same transformation that morphed the Jews into Israelis.

But I don't see that happening. Their leadership will not let it happen and they are not strong or organized enough to go it alone.

Tu b'Shvat, once a simple act, now a raging symbol.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Turkey Summons Swiss Ambassador

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The Turkish foreign ministry has summoned the Swiss ambassador. The Turks want an explanation.

The Swiss have launched an investigation into the Turkish EU Minister suggesting that he may have violated international protocols by denying the Armenian genocide.

The Turks are livid.

They are saying such an investigation is unacceptable and they will tell the Swiss ambassador just that. Turkey will demand an explanation as to why this investigation is happening.

The Turks have already had a diplomatic skirmish with France over this very same issue. There is a big problem here, bigger than diplomacy, it is a nationalist issue. It is against European Union law to deny the genocide - but part and parcel of Turkish identity is to deny the Armenian catastrophe.

Right now, Turkish leadership is extremely volatile. They are overreacting to almost every international issue, not looking for solutions or detante. This is one blatant indication of the frayed nerves and extreme reactions of Turkish leadership.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Monday, February 6, 2012

Stop Aid to Egypt

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

One may have thought that things could not get any worse when it came to Egypt and their new incarnation.

Now hear this: The new military leadership in Egypt has decided to put 19 Americans plus 24 other employees of NGO's on trial. They are charged with using foreign funds to foment political unrest.

These 43 people work for pro-democratic organizations, for organizations that helped oust Mubarak.

At first Egypt said that these workers could not travel, now they will stand trial. The military is deeply troubled that these organizations teach about accountability and responsibility, preach equality and equal protection and want justice.

These are all red flags and dangerous terms in the new Egypt.

The United States has threatened to pull monetary aid.

At this point the US must do something - intervene or pull not some but all aid to Egypt. If the United States does not act decisively, harshly and quickly, there will be no chance of saving these 43 people.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Sunday, February 5, 2012

Hamas & PA Meet About Elections

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

The head of the Palestinians Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, and the head of Hamas, Khalad Mashaal, met on Sunday in Doha the capital of Qatar.

They met to talk about creating an independent interim government which would enable and organize presidential and parliamentary elections.

The PA and Hamas have been talking about unity and about elections for some significant time now, but have not yet progressed any further than saying that this is what we want.

This time also there is very little chance of success. Hamas think that they have already been elected - and have not yet served. The PA does not want to cede any power.

Creating a government to enable an election is a potential black hole. Once an interim government is in place there is no guarantee that elections will follow. And even if there are elections there are no guarantees they will be honest or that the results will be honored.

History has taught us that there is almost no chance of uniting the PA and Hamas in order to bring about united Palestinian elections.

Micah@Halpern.com
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Saturday, February 4, 2012

Iran - IAEA FAilure

by Micah D. Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

How naive and how gullible are we?

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) wrapped up its meeting in Iran and then fed us all a great line. The meetings, they said, were positive - the Iranians are interested in talks and in inspections and there is a second round scheduled for later in February.

True, but only a partial story. The inspectors asked to see the facility in Parchin and the Iranians did not permit their entry.

Here is where it gets very tricky. The Iranians did not use the word "no" they just sidestepped the question. End result is that the IAEA inspectors were not permitted to inspect Parchin because the Iranians did not allow it, but yes, the Iranians did not say no to the IAEA.

Here is where it becomes troubling. Because the Iranians did not say no, the meetings and talks were considered a success in the eyes of the West and of the IAEA.

This is hardly a success - it is playing right into the hands of the very capable Iranians. It might come as a surprise to Westerners, but in many cultures - including Persian culture, it is impolite to say "no" and there are literally numerous ways of saying no without saying no.

Once again, the Iranians have succeeded in doing things their way.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Friday, February 3, 2012

Egypt Comic Convicted of Insulting Islam

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

One of the Arab world's most popular comedians was convicted and sentenced to 30 months in prison yesterday for the crime of insulting Islam.

This, not surprisingly, happened in the New Egypt.

Adel Imam, a truly iconic character in the Arabic world, has been an entertainment fixture for years. His shtick is to poke fun at politicians and politics. His humor is a test of the prevailing winds. At times, he went too far.

The sentence was handed down as a result of a 2001 movie called Morgan Ahmed Morgan. The film tells the story of a corrupt businessman who tries to buy a university diploma. The Egyptian sentencing judge said that Imam depicted Islamic symbols with disrespect and that he disrespectfully depicted a group of men dressed in Islamic garb. Imam went too far for the sensibilities of New Egyptian leadership.

Imam's most popular role was in a 1998 movie called Al Zaeem in which he played an Arab dictator. In 2008 he was found guilty of defaming lawyers, but that decision was overruled.

Adel Imam was tried in absentia. It was said that he was in Egypt recently to film a TV series but no one knows his current whereabouts.

One of the Arab world's most popular comedians has fallen out of favor by the New Egypt. During the rebellion Adel Imam defended Mubarak.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Thursday, February 2, 2012

PA Gets Upgrade in Germany

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Germany upgraded the diplomatic status of the Palestinian Authority. The PA had been a "representation" and now they are a "mission." A mission means that the top representative to the host country is a ambassador that they may fly their flag.

This is a serious increase in diplomatic clout. Germany follows France, Spain, Portugal and Ireland in upgrading the PA.

Israel responded to the diplomatic upgrade by saying that the PA is getting the wrong message. Israel is saying that the Palestinian Authority is being rewarded with diplomatic upgrades for walking away from the negotiation table.

Israel is trying to suggest that the opposite should have taken place. Dangle the diplomatic upgrade as a reward in order to influence the PA to act diplomatically - don't just give that diplomatic perk away.

There is something fundamentally flawed in this picture. Diplomatic upgrades are huge and they just don't slip back down in status, they should be achieved as the result of serious transitions, not wishful thinking and vacuous promises.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Syria Needs Our Help

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The Senate Intelligence Committee held a hearing yesterday. Syria and Iran were on the agenda.

David Petraeus, head of the CIA, explained to the senators that Israel and the United States see the threat of Iran differently.

From his testimony it became clear that Tamir Pardo, chief of Israel's Mossad, had been in Washington DC on Thursday.

This little bit of information made my jaw drop. The travel plans of the Mossad head are never supposed to be common knowledge.

The Committee also heard that there seems to be no real compromise position in Syria and that Iran sees the Assad regime as an asset. The senators were told that the loss of Syria as an Iranian asset would be a great loss to the Iranians.

What the United States does not seem to understand is that:

#1: Assad will not leave on his own
#2: the locals do not have the wherewithal to oust Assad.

They people of Syria need help, our help, help from the West. Iran is helping Assad stay in power.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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