Sunday, July 31, 2011

Turk Shake Up Bad For West

By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:

The shake-up in the Turkish army is a bad sign for the West and for Israel.

The Turkish army was always fiercely secular. It was a counterbalance to Islamic influences. The balance/counterbalance worked well - even under the current Turkish leadership in which Erdogan and his party represent a Muslim party.

The departure of the top echelon of leadership, including the four most important members of the military, leaves a gap that will be filled by political appointments. When this happens the balance will be shifted and the status quo will be altered, breaking the checks that had been in place against Muslim political interests.

The Turkish army has had very close relations with Israel and the United States. There were weapons deals and training drills and maneuvers. But that was with the understanding that the Turkish army play a role in keeping Turkey friendly and open to the West. For years the trade-off has been very positive and helped Turkey become a significant economic force in the region.

Now the shake-up. It could mean a drastic shift in orientation and have a huge impact on the region. Iran already reached out to Turkey and in the last UN Security Council vote on sanctions against Iran, Turkey sided with Iran against the sanctions.

Turkey must be watched very carefully.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Saturday, July 30, 2011

Entire Turk High Command Resigns

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey experienced a political and military earthquake yesterday.

Turkey's military chief of staff, head of ground forces, head of the navy and head of the air force all retired. All because General Isik Kosaner said that he can no longer protect his staff.

200 military personnel are now arrested and are being tried for plotting coups - 40 of them are generals. One very famous case "The Sledghammer" was actually made into an army seminar.

The army has always been the safety switch in Turkey. The army created coups and ousted government in 1960, 1980 and 1997.

The army in Turkey is staunchly secular, but the prime minister and his party are devout Muslims. It was the army that always forced the country to separate religion and state. And it was the army that kept Islam out of power.

But now the leadership of Turkey is boldly professing their Islamic practice. They are in power and this Muslim leadership wants the army out of politics.

This mass retirement is a very dangerous sign. It can have a huge impact on the preparedness and safety of Turkey.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Friday, July 29, 2011

Justice in the PA

By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:

Mohammed Dahlan crossed over into Jordan yesterday. He had returned to the West Bank on Friday and on Sunday his trial for corruption and murder began.

Dahlan was the fair haired boy of Fatah with some people assuming that it is he who would succeed Arafat or then Abbas. He was the most popular Arafat adviser in the Clinton White House. That has all come crashing down.

Dahlan was the Fatah presence in Gaza. His downfall came because he was not present when Hamas led the coup that ousted Fatah from Gaza.

It signaled the end of Dahlan's future in Fatah. He was blamed for the Hamas takeover and was purged from Fatah and charged with undermining the leadership and the Fatah movement. The PA arrested his body guards, confiscated his weapons, ammunition and three armored cars.

So Dahlan left.

He saw the writing on the wall and knowing what it meant - he escaped. Fleeing is a long and honored response to issues in the Middle East.

I am certain that Dahlan will pop up somewhere in a few months. He may even be the one to tell the real story about the inner circle of Fatah.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Thursday, July 28, 2011

Voice of Protest Murdered in Syria

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

The body of Ibrahim Qashoush body was found in the Assi river in Hama. His throat had been cut out.

Qashoush was the voice of the movement in Syria to oust dictator Bashar Assad. It was Qashoush who wrote the famous song "Get Out Bashar" that was sung and played on loud speakers at all the rallies and demonstrations.


Your legitimacy here has ended

Get out Bashar

Bashar you're a liar

To hell with you and your speech

Freedom is at the door

Time to leave Bashar

Mahar you're a coward

You're an agent of the US

Syrians won't be humiliated

Get out Bashar

Qashoush was probably taken by the secret police, murdered then dumped in the river that flows through his home town. It was a signal from regime. It is a threat. The regime is cracking down even more. Assad and his regime understand the rules of the game of survival - the longer he stays in power the harder it will be to oust him.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Norway Mistakes

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
The horrific terror in Norway has caused many organizers and organizations to re-evaluate the safety of their camps and other educational environments. And rightly so.
But frankly, the response of the Norwegian police and assistance teams was so abysmal it is beneath any real critique. The list of mistakes leaves one breathless.

The perpetrator was on a terrorist watch list after ordering explosives from Poland and then purchasing 6 tons of ammonium nitrate.
The police in Norway do not carry guns.
There were no helicopters available because every single crew was on vacation at the very same time.

The SWAT team was not even called until 50 minutes after the police were informed and were finally put on a boat 40 minutes later.

The boat containing police and equipment was so heavy it took on water, stopped to bale out the water and then proceeded very slowly.

The terrorist made the trip from downtown to the camp in 20 minutes.

It took the SWAT team took over 2 hours to arrive.

We will never know how many people were murdered in the time that it took the police to arrive and arrest the terrorist.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Wagner and Israel

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Today the Israel Chamber Orchestra will perform Wagner. The piece, Siegfried Idyll, was not even rehearsed in Israel. It was rehearsed on Sunday in Bayreuth, Germany and will be performed there today, at an annual Wagner festival. This is a first.
There have been attempts to play Wagner in Israel and even successes. In 2001 at the Israel Festival in Jerusalem Wagner was played - but not by an official Israeli orchestra.
The issue comes up often. The debate ensues. Should an Israeli orchestra play Wagner?
Wagner was a rabid anti-Semite. His essay entitled Jews in Music is a classic work of anti-Semitism. It became one of the most read anti-Semitic works of the day alongside the works of Wilhelm Marr and Edouard Drumont. Wagner's daughter married one of the greatest theoretical anti-Semites of the era named Houston Stewart Chamberlain.
Hitler loved Wagner and played his music constantly - even playing it while Jews were marched off to the gas chambers. When it comes to Wagner, Israelis and Holocaust survivors are very sensitive. And indeed, the official policy of Israel since Kristallnacht is not to play Wagner.
Roberto Paternostro, conductor of the Israel Chamber Orchestra, is one of the exceptions. The child of holocaust survivors, he wants to play the music of Wagner.
The question is not just whether wounds have healed and whether enough time has passed.
The question is one of principle.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Monday, July 25, 2011

Car Accident in Gaza

By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:

According to MAAN, the Palestinian news service, four men were killed in a car accident in Gaza on Friday night. One of the men was a leader of the al Kuds Brigade, the military wing of Islamic Jihad.

Both the Islamic Jihad and the al Kuds Brigade confirmed the accident and the deaths. The car was overtaking another vehicle near Khan Yunis in the Gaza Strip and hit a truck head on.

Roads are very narrow in that region, there are slight inclines and only partial shoulders. People drive very quickly and trucks move slowly. So naturally, cars want to pass and move along. But these are not highways. Gaza is only 25 miles long and between 4 and 7 miles wide.

The claim will be made that Israel had a hand in the killings. But no such luck. It is no secret that there are a lot, actually, far too many traffic casualties in Gaza. Leaders and self proclaimed important people are some of the fastest and worst drivers on those roads.

Sometimes, even very important bad guys die in traffic accidents in Gaza.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Sunday, July 24, 2011

My Mistake

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

With my deadline looming on Friday, brought on by the Jewish Sabbath, I took what information had emerged and made a judgment call. As it turns out, I was in error.

Earlier on Friday it was clear that Norway had fallen prey to horrific mass murders - near simultaneous attacks in the heart of Oslo and in the Labor Movement summer camp just outside Oslo. Even early on the numbers of dead appeared beyond comprehension - only to be dwarfed by the actual number that emerged over the weekend.

Two Muslim groups immediately accepted responsibility. I evaluated, interpreted and concluded that the events in Norway were the acts of Islamic terror. Only later, with the advantage of having received more and accurate information, I see that that was not the case.

Although Muslim terror groups have threatened Norway and although these acts were clearly modeled on al Qaeda style operations they were perpetrated by a lone right wing Christian extremist who wanted to wipe out liberal ideas.

The mass murderer was a terrorist and a self proclaimed crusader for his cause. He knew what he did was wrong but said, through his lawyer, that what he did was necessary.

At the time of my writing there was no way of getting any better info and of extrapolating from there. I have kept the mistaken entry as originally posted as an important reminder for myself and to keep the historical record straight.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Saturday, July 23, 2011

Muslim Terror in Norway

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
The simultaneous attacks that shook Oslo, Norway were the work of an Islamic terror group called The Helpers of World Jihad. The death toll is still climbing - it will reach at least 30 because, sadly, some of the injured will succumb to their wounds.

A bomb struck the center of the city -- right next to the office of the prime minister and the ministry of finance. Then a man dressed in police uniform opened fire on a summer camp sponsored by the Labor movement.

It was both a massacre of children who were simply having summer fun and a massive murder in a political hub of the capital city of Norway.

This is the same terror group that was responsible for the suicide bombing in a pedestrian mall in downtown Stockholm in December of 2011.

The objective of The Helpers of World Jihad is to wreak havoc and instill fear in areas that had until then been far away from the conflict. This terror group wants the leaders and the people of Norway and Sweden to know that the conflict is not limited to the Middle East - it is also in Stockholm and Oslo.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Friday, July 22, 2011

Libya Selling Weapons to Hamas

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

One of the groups gaining tremendously from the unrest in Libya is --- Hamas in Gaza.
How so? --- you ask.

Weapons and armaments.

Hamas is buying a huge amount of equipment from the opposition forces in Libya.

The opposition has weapons and they are selling some of them off.

Those weapons are smuggled east from the areas around Benghazi to the border with Egypt. After crossing into Egypt the smuggled weapons continue east until they cross into the Gaza strip.

What that means is that Western weapons given to aid in the fight against Ghadaffi are ending up in the hands of Hamas in Gaza.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Thursday, July 21, 2011

Elections in Egypt

By Micah Halpern

I'm Predicting:

Once again, yesterday, Egypt announced that they will not condone international monitors and observers during their September elections.

That is a very bad sign and signals a very poor future for transparency.

At this point, with less than two months until elections, I predict that elections in Egypt will be postponed. If they are not postponed, the elections will not be real and the results will not be honest.

Egypt has yet to organize for the vote. Egyptians still need to register, train, district, educate. They need to actually lay out what people are voting for. They need to figure out a process and a procedure to collect ballots and tally votes.

None of this has been done.

Over 80% of Egypt has said they would like to vote. This is eight times the number that has come out to vote in the past. The organization is going to be total bedlam and anarchy.

Because so much is required in order to carry out fair and democratic elections and because so little preparation has been done we are left with one of two alternatives - the elections will either be postponed or they will be fixed.

This does not bode well for the future of democracy in Egypt.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Ziggy Marley In Israel

By Micah Halpern
Column:
In the year 1930 a new emperor was crowned in Ethiopia. He took the name Haile Selassie and, like all emperors in Ethiopia, he traced his roots all the way back to wise King Solomon and his wife, the African beauty, Queen of Sheba.

This emperor, His Imperial Majesty Haile Selassia I, also known as the King of Kings, the Lord of Lords, and the Conquering Lion of the Tribe of Judah and the Elect of God, was thought to be a messianic figure among followers of the Rastafari movement. The movement, begun in the slums of Jamaica, believes that Africans are the true Israelites sent to exile in Jamaica as divine punishment.

On a visit to Jamaica in 1966 the emperor, who denied any divine abilities, was unsuccessful in convincing Rastafari supporters of his mere mortality. Upon his arrival on the island a long drought broke -it finally rained. Among the many people transfixed by Haile Selassia and moved to convert to Rastafari was a woman named Rita Marley, the wife of Bob Marley.
Bob Marley changed the world through his music. He introduced the beat of Jamaican music to the West. And as he popularized reggae music in the Western world he taught our world about what it means to be a follower of Rastafari - not just the dreadlocks, but the religion and the politics. Marley was not the first to combine music with politics, but he was one of the best.
The tradition begun by Bob Marley is carried on today by his son, Ziggy Marley. Ziggy follows in his father's footsteps in music, in culture and - in accordance with Rastafari belief, in being a major proponent of the use of marijuana.
This summer, Ziggy will perform two concerts in Israel, one in Tel Aviv and the other in Jerusalem.
In a recent interview with YNET, Israel's premier internet news provider, Ziggy, whose middle name is David, as in King David father of Solomon, described how he was jealous of Jewish tradition and how he celebrates all the Jewish holidays.
In the interest of full disclosure - Ziggy Marley is married to an Israeli woman named Orly and together they have three children who are, according to Jewish law, all Jewish. Ziggy's wife and children all have biblical Hebrew names. Orly means my light. Their daughter is named Judah Victoria, their eldest son is named Gideon and their baby boy is Abraham Selassie.
Ziggy went on to explain that he has had a strong connection with

Judaism, with Israel and with the Jewish people since childhood. He said that the teachings of his father and learning Bible stories and the connection with Rastafari thought and Halie Selassie's message were inspirational. He said they combined to instill in him a message of love and affinity. Marley admitted that he participates in Jewish holiday observances because his wife and his children are living the Jewish experience. He says that he is jealous of Jewish culture.
Ziggy Marley, although he knows he is not Jewish, is very comfortable with Judaism and Jewish traditions. Jewish culture and the Jewish calendar are a big part of his life.
He would never think of boycotting Israel the way so many other big name entertainers have done. Ziggy Marley, like Bob Dylan who just wound up a concert tour in Israel, are not about to be swayed by the scare tactics and virulent hatred spewed by the organizers and supporters of the most recent boycott against Israel. They are not afraid of the call to blackball anyone who does business of any kind with Israel.
BDS stands for Boycott Divestment and Sanctions against Israel. It is an umbrella organization that helps groups organize anti-Israel programs especially boycotts of Israel on campuses around the world.

In this day and age of electronic media, campaigns can be waged and wars won and lost all by way of the internet. It is easy for a pop star or for a company or a politician to fall from popularity because they sided with the wrong cause.
It is not popular to be vocally pro-Israel today. Ziggy Marley is taking a risk. But he understands the risk. It is something he believes in. Marley believes in the uniqueness of the Jewish people and in their unique connection to the land of Israel. He has known it since childhood, he was taught it at his father's knee.
Ziggy Marley is carrying on the message of his father. He conveys the message through his actions and through his music. It is a message about culture and history that is interwoven into the fabric of Israel. The message is that Israel represents lofty, heavenly ideals of truth, covenant and connectedness. The earthly Jerusalem may be flawed, but it remains a light unto the nations.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Norway Tells PA No Way

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was in Norway yesterday.

Abbas was there to shore up support and test the winds of Northern Europe on the subject of the Palestinian proposal to declare unilateral statehood at the United Nations during the General Assembly in September.
The leadership of Norway was very diplomatic in saying that that although they view the statehood declaration as legitimate, Norway is not ready to announce its support for an independent Palestinian state at this time.
This is a significant blow to Abbas and to the declaration movement.
Norway has always been a major supporter of the PA. They give about $100 million in aid to the Palestinian Authority plus another $25 million in aid to the United Nations for the PA. Percentage wise, Norway gives to PA far more per capita than almost any other Western or Arab country.
When Norway acknowledges publicly that they are unlikely to support the Palestinian declaration of statehood it should be seen as an omen for conflict.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Monday, July 18, 2011

Iran's Modesty Police

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Welcome to summer in Iran.
The summertime is excruciatingly hot in Iran. And every summer the Chastity Police come out.
The Chastity Police are the division of the Iranian police charged with policing modesty. Any woman who is not dressed appropriately, who does not have her head and face covered appropriately, is arrested or fined. There are 70,000 police at work in these modesty squads.
It doesn't stop there. Next comes nail polish. If any polish peeps out of sandals, that wearer, too, is fined or arrested. Truly, a head to toe search.
But the mandate of the Chastity Police is not limited to women.

The Chastity Police also patrol clothing stores and barber shops.
They check to make sure that all haircuts conform to Islamic law. No shorts for men. No ponytails for men, no mullet for men - that is a haircut with short sides and a long back. Barbers are presented with a booklet detailing permitted haircuts and there are posters with the same information.
And then Iranian leadership tells the world how free they are, how there is no more perfect society in the world.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Sunday, July 17, 2011

Libya & The Contact Group

By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:
On Friday the contact group dealing with Libya met in Turkey and decided to recognize the opposition. They feel that this move will give the opposition the support they need to help pave the way for a new interim government.
The group will also ratchet up the pressure to oust Ghadaffi. It has been 5 months and still Ghadaffi shows no signs of breaking.
For the first time China and Russia were invited to the meeting.
Neither attended, saying that they do not believe in supporting one side of this internal conflict over the other. The response by China and Russia points out that the United States and others have chosen a side in this conflict. While neither Russia nor China likes the current regime they do not actively seek its removal.
In response to the decision by the contact group Russia proclaimed that Ghadaffi has a suicide plan. No, not that Ghadaffi has any intention of offing himself. This suicide plan means that if the situation gets too intolerable or hopeless Ghadaffi will take out major industries and infrastructures and cities within Libya.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Saturday, July 16, 2011

Rockets Again Rain on Israel

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
On Thursday six Qassam rockets were shot from Gaza and landed in Israel. On Friday another rocket from Gaza landed in Israel.
This is a watershed. After relative calm Hamas of Gaza has permitted other groups to loft rockets into Israel. The parties who shot these seven rockets are not Hamas directly. But Hamas is turning a blind eye to their actions.
Tensions are rising and Israel has begun a response. As more rockets fall, more responses will be made. Between Thursday night and Friday morning Israeli planes hit three targets in Gaza. All were smuggling tunnels.
Israel's Military Chief of Staff Benny Gantz called a meeting to evaluate and plan responses.
There are the obvious: do nothing, bomb the tunnels, target the leaders, invade and clean house. Actions can be combined, increased, intensified, become more widespread.
Hamas has an objective. Hamas wants to push negative international media attention on Israel over the summer while Hamas and PA work out their difference and move toward a unilateral declaration of statehood in the United Nations.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Friday, July 15, 2011

Arab League Push Palestinian State

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
The Arab League has decided to support and push for United Nations recognition of the declared Palestinian state. The Arab League wants to upgrade Palestinian status in the UN to that of full member. This is all supposed to happen in September.
AP got a copy of the communique detailing this decision.
At the Arab League meeting in Qatar yesterday it was decided that the best move was to declare a Palestinian state at the UN. The League believes that this move will pressure Israel and the United States into making concessions.
But the rules are clear. In order to upgrade from observer to full member the Security Council must approve the proposal. Then it must be approved by the General Assembly.
There is no way that the Security Council will approve this change.
The US will veto it. That means that a vote in the General Assembly will have no international significance - it will only serve to embarrass the US.
Embarrassing the US might be the objective of the Palestinians and the Arab League. If it is - they should be prepared for the ramifications of such a public embarrassment.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Thursday, July 14, 2011

Arab Poll Pans Obama

By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:
A new study by James Zogby at the Arab American Institute presents some fascinating and damning numbers for the Obama administration.
Zogby looked at individual Arab states. Each was asked about President Barack Obama and United States policy in the region.
Lebanon: 99% disapproved of Obama's policies in the Middle East and feel that he has failed.

Morocco: 88% disapprove of Obama and US policies.

Egypt: 90% reject Obama's policies and felt he had failed.

Saudi Arabia: 77% disapprove.
These numbers are so bad it should shock the White House into a drastic and immediate change in policy. Until now, the policy of the Obama Administration has been to appease the Arab states and alienate the Israelis.
The White House has achieved half of their goal. They have successfully alienated the Israelis. But there is no way to appease the Arab states. The White House does not understand this. The White House does not understand that Arab states feel betrayed by the US and by Obama.
More than that, Obama cannot understand why both Israelis and Arabs are so upset. The White House clings to the old cliche: if both sides in a deal are upset, we must be doing something right.

They are wrong. When it comes to the Middle East, the Obama administration is doing something wrong, something terribly wrong.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Wednesday, July 13, 2011

What's Next in Egypt

By Micah Halpern

Column:
The revolution in Egypt, one of many that rocked the region, came to its conclusion five months ago. And we still do not know when - or if, stability, peace or democracy will come to the country that dethroned a long time dictatorial leader and replaced him with military rule.
It is impossible to predict what will happen in Egypt in the near or in the distant future. The information we have is contradictory and confusing. The signals we are receiving both from the people and the ruling government are mixed. The only certainty is that Egypt today is a state in flux.
For example, in Egypt, for the past months, Muslims have been attacking Christians. Brutally beating them and burning their churches. And the perpetrators of the attacks are being given protection under the army.
And then, about as far to the other extreme as you can get, an official poll conducted by the government of Egypt and released by the government of Egypt shows that 67% of Egyptians want to continue the peace treaty with Israel. 67% is equal to two-thirds of the population. A small 2% of the Egyptian population wants to revise some aspects of the treaty and only 11% want to scrap it entirely. 20% would not answer the question.
The survey of 1062 people was conducted by the Cabinet Information Decision Support Center - the research arm of the Egyptian cabinet.
Significantly, this the first time we have been made privy to the inside opinion numbers of Egypt's decision makers.
Given the tensions and the rhetoric that has been emanating from Egypt since January, the solidarity with the Jewish state is the aberration, not the war against Christian countrymen.
There's more. The poll also asked Egyptians if they were willing to vote in the upcoming election. An overwhelming 87% of those asked said they will vote - as opposed to the underwhelming 18% who voted in the last election. Remember, this is an internal, official, Egyptian poll. Their poll, their numbers and their press release - not a leak intended to embarrass or weaken the government.

So should we be hopeful, or should we be worried.
Here is one more example of life and day-to-day activity in Egypt circa summer 2011: Government officials, aka guards, sit by and watch as a truck with a handful of men armed with machine guns pulls up to a natural gas pipeline relay in the Northern Sinai Peninsula.
The armed men intimidate the guards, forcing them to leave their post, and then set explosive charges on a natural gas line and blow it up. The facility is government owned and controlled.

This act of terror and sabotage took place in Bir Abid, 60 miles east of the Suez Canal. The intent was to stop Egypt from providing natural gas to Israel. It was the third attack on a gas line and the fifth attempted attack to shut down the gas flow from Egypt to Israel. But the gas from the line that services Israel does not flow exclusively to Israel - it also flows to Jordan.
There is a very vocal movement in Egypt to renegotiate the Camp David

Treaty which articulates a special relationship between Egypt and Israel and includes the natural gas provision. But here's the catch.

Israel, it turns out, was much more heavily dependent on natural gas from Egypt before January when unrest took over the country than it is today. Before January, Israel received over 35% of its natural gas needs from Egypt, since the uprising Israel has weaned itself off Egyptian natural gas and Egypt now provides only 12% to 15% of their gas. That number, too, is dropping.
Jordan, however, has not found creative alternatives. Jordan remains 85% dependent on Egypt for natural gas. Damaging the pipeline to Israel hurts the Arabs of Jordan significantly more than it hurts the Jews of Israel.
To complicate matters even more, the line that was blown up was not the correct line. The destroyed line, according to a highly knowledgeable source, was an internal natural gas line.
In Egypt today there is general acceptance of the status quo. There are some very vocal and very well organized groups who want to change that status. On the one hand the government and the army is neither interfering in those plans nor stopping the organizers from putting their plans into action. On the other hand, the government itself is initiating actions that indicate a willingness, at least, to test the waters of democracy and stability.
The pipe line situation is a perfect metaphor for Egypt today. The stations are obvious targets. They need to be shorn up and better secured. They need to be secured because it is in Egypt's best interest to do so. It is in the interest of regional affairs and it is in the interest of a healthy and viable economy. By not securing their pipelines, the Egyptians are sending a message to all foreign investors that Egypt is insecure and that investment is risky and unreliable.
I am certain that the army can control the situation. I am not certain that they want to control the situation. That difference frightens me.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Neo-Nazis in Russia

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday a court in Russia sentenced 12 Neo-Nazi skin heads to prison. They will receive from 10 years to life.
These Neo-Nazis were found guilty in the brutal murder of 27 people.
All the crimes were hate crimes - beatings, stabbings, decapitations. They even filmed their own crimes, like the decapitation of a man they suspected of being a police informant.
Neo-Nazism is on the rise in Russia. Figures suggest that half of the Neo-Nazis in all the world are in Russia. Some put the numbers in Russia at 70,000.
Numbers do not do the Neo-Nazi movement justice. Video depicts the movement and its popularity much more accurately. Some of this groups videotaped murders and beatings were the most viewed videos on the internet in Russia.
Their message is Neo-Fascist and is exactly modeled on Hitler's.
They preach that foreigners - Jews, Muslims and immigrants from the Caucuses, destroy the true essence of Russia. They preach that there is one simple division white and black. Whites are Russians and blacks are everyone else. Their acts of violence are so heinous that foreign students at university are not permitted outside on certain days - like Hitler's birthday.
This is the very scary reality of a new evolving democracy.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Monday, July 11, 2011

Hundreds Die Every Day

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
It is important to look at events in other parts of the world to gain perspective on our lives and events that touch and influence our world.
Yesterday was a typical day around the world.

A train derailed in India left approximately 40 dead and over 100 injured.
In a second derailment in India authorities are still tallying the number of dead and injured.
A boat sunk in the Volga and the toll is at 170 missing.
In India, bad train wrecks killing hundreds of people happen pretty often. Hundreds die because of human error and carelessness.
Train wrecks and boats that sink are not natural disasters, they are not acts of God. They happen because of poor building and poor infrastructure, because of carelessness and unwise decision making.
Here comes the perspective: Far more people have died in train crashes in India this year than in the total of all the revolutions in the Arab world.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Sunday, July 10, 2011

Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Jordan is showing real signs of breaking and becoming the next country to join the wave of unrest in the Middle East. For months now, every Friday has been a day of massive protests by religious extremists - especially the Muslim Brotherhood.
The Brotherhood has challenged the monarchy and the existing government and repeatedly called for their removal and for instituting reforms and liberalization and freedoms. And indeed the King has swapped cabinets, replaced people and made superficial changes hoping to placate the demands of the extremists.
Now the Brotherhood has taken the issue to the UN.

The irony. The Muslim Brotherhood, an anti-democratic group demanding democratic recognition.
The Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan is asking for an investigation by the UN Anti Corruption Committee. (ACC). They hope to put the issue on the map. They want to create an international and local ground swell that will ultimately oust King Abdullah.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Saturday, July 9, 2011

450,000 Protest in Hama Syria

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
On Friday, in the city of Hama in Syria, 450,000 people came out in protest against Syrian dictator Bashar Assad.
The protests were not limited to Hama, there were protests throughout the rest of Syria. But for Syrians and for students of the Middle East, Hama is a symbol. Hama has history.
Hama was a city under siege. Bashar Assad was clamping down on the city. Then ambassadors from the United States and France came in a show of support and gave encouragement to the local residents. The ambassadors told the people of Hama that the world cares and that the world is watching.
In 1982, in this same town of Hama, this dictator's father - Hafez Assad massacred 30,000 people in a single day. The massacre was so brutal that the next day Assad had special forces sent in to kill even the domestic and farm animals of Hama.

All of Syria remembers the horrific massacre in Hama. Now they wonder if there will be another.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Friday, July 8, 2011

Hamas Captures Israeli Spy

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

On Thursday Hamas announced that they arrested a double agent. According to Hamas the agent had been helping Israel for the past 23 years. They say that this agent is responsible for the deaths and arrest of numerous Hamas members.

On Wednesday Hamas announced that they had arrested an Israeli agent who for years had acted as finance minister for the Israelis. They say this person was the pocket book for Israeli assets in Gaza and that he paid them in cash.

The two announcements could be talking about the same person.

If the reports are true it shows just how deeply entrenched Israeli intelligence is in Gaza. To be an active spy and to handle assets as a middle man for 23 years is an entire career.

Only now that person has been outed, been discovered. Of course, whoever he is or they are --- they really do not work for Israel.

They may be helping Israel. Israel may have been paying them and everyone else. But they do not work for Israel.

There is no link between Israel and these assets. There could never be a link, it would be too risky. The people involved have no information about Israel and Israeli intelligence, just information about Gaza.

The sad shame is that Israel can do nothing once a person has been caught. If the Israelis had an inkling that arrests or capture were imminent, they could have removed the person/s and set them up in Israel. There are entire communities and complexes of Arabs who are former assets that have been "brought in." Unfortunately it is most probably too late in this case/s.

Experience says these people are tried at night and hung very soon after.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Thursday, July 7, 2011

Egypt's Secular Extremists

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Observers of Egyptian society have been narrowly focusing on the Muslim Brotherhood and the threat that the Brotherhood poses to liberal ideals and reforms and democracy.
But serious threats also come from secular movements within Egypt.

In a recent interview with the Washington Times, Ahmed Ezz al Arab, number two in the large and very secular Wafd Party, gave a detailed description of how 9-11 was a hoax.
Al Arab also went to great lengths to explain how the Holocaust could never have happened, that it was physically impossible for it to have occurred. Certainly Nazis killed Jews, he allowed, but not millions of Jews.
And finally, he announced that Anne Frank's diary is a complete fabrication. Al Arab said that the girl may have existed but the story and the memoir did not. He remembers, he said, being a PhD student in Stockholm when he first came to that conclusion.
These are the thoughts of the Western educated secular leadership of Egypt. There is no need to say anything more about how Egypt is going to liberalize.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Syria in Israel's Eyes

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Israel's Director of Military Intelligence Major General Aviv Kochavi delivered a remarkable and extremely insightful briefing yesterday.
Kochavi said that Assad of Syria is promising reforms and granting incentives so that Syrians will remain loyal to him. The incentives are working. According to MI (military intelligence) there have been only 20 to 30 Syrian officers who have defected and abandoned their positions.
According to Kochavi Assad needed more than the army to stop the uprising. The incentives he is offering include increased salaries to the military and subsides on staples for everyone.
If this phenomenon continues to take hold then Assad will have successfully quieted the revolt which threatens to topple his reign of power in this Middle East police state.
We will know more by next week.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Israel To Hand Over 84 Bodies

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Israel is in the final stages of handing over to the Palestinian Authority the bodies of 84 terrorists. Some of these terrorists were responsible for the most heinous attacks against Israeli citizens.

Approval for the handover was given months ago. The list was drawn up and it, too, was approved.
There is no quid pro quo. Israel is getting nothing for their generous gift. The Israeli response is that they received a request from the PA and they are gladly fulfilling the request.
But is this really a gesture of good will? If it is, how much more good will is on the horizon? In general, good will does not rank high in the respect quotient of the Arab world. Giving something for nothing is a sign of weakness - not an investment in good will.
I know the Israelis know this. I know that the advisers of the Prime Minister are all aware of it. And yet, they still are handing over the bodies of 84 terrorists.
The only conclusion I come to is that this is a gesture meant for the United States and not for the Palestinians and not for the region. The United States sees gestures as a sign of strength and magnanimity.
The problem is that the United States has it backwards when it comes to the Middle East.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Monday, July 4, 2011

Egypt Blows Up Gas Pipe Line

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Early this morning, in Egypt, a truck with a handful of men armed with machine guns pulled up to the natural gas pipeline relay in the Northern Sinai Peninsula . They forced the guards away through intimidation and then set charges on the natural gas line and blew it up.

This act of terror and sabotage took place in Bir Abid, 60 miles east of the Suez Canal. The intent is to stop Egypt from providing natural gas to Israel. This is the third attack and the fifth attempt to shut down the gas flow from Egypt to Israel line.

There are several essential points to be noted: The natural gas line which goes to Israel, also flows to Jordan. The line that was blown up was not the right line. The destroyed line, according to a highly knowledgeable source, was an internal natural gas line.

There is a very vocal movement in Egypt to renegotiate the Camp David Treaty which articulates a special relationship between Egypt and Israel - and includes the natural gas provision.

An important aside is that Israel was much more heavily dependent on natural gas from Egypt before January when unrest took over the country. Before January, Israel received over 35% of its natural gas needs from Egypt, since the uprising Israel has weaned itself off Egyptian natural gas and Egypt now provides only 12-15% of their gas. That number, too, is dropping.

Jordan, however, has not found creative alternatives. Jordan remains 85% dependent on Egypt for natural gas. Damaging the pipeline to Israel hurts the Arabs of Jordan significantly more than it hurts the Jews of Israel.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Sunday, July 3, 2011

Gaza Flotilla and Greece

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
The Gaza flotilla has been on the minds of many this weekend.
The Greek government boarded and then turned back a ship headed out of their harbor for Gaza. On Friday, armed commandos stormed the ship to turn it back. And then on Saturday the captain of the ship was arrested by the Greek authorities.
For hundreds of years the code of the sea captain has been handed down from generation to generation. It is the moral and legal responsibility of every captain to do everything they can to maintain the safety of his passengers.
Greece charged the flotilla captain as violating that code. He was charged with endangering his passengers - a serious crime by any standard.
The activists trying to break into Gaza claim it is all politics. They say that Greece is "doing the bidding of the Israelis." The decision of the Greeks to turn back the ship might actually be in Israel's interests, but it is also an issue of safety.
The flotilla is an aggressive act against Israel. Now, especially, when the Gaza border with Egypt is open, there is now no international legal footing for any humanitarian group breaking through Israeli territorial waters with a ship.
Greece was correct to stop the flotilla.

Micah@MicahHalepern.com

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Saturday, July 2, 2011

Iran - India Diplomatic Crisis

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
A major diplomatic crisis is developing between Iran and India.
India has not been paying Iran for the oil that they have been receiving from them. The debt is building. India is nearly a year behind in payment.
India imports $12 billion of oil from Iran annually. That is about a half million barrels per day. All total Iran is the second largest oil supplier to India after Saudi Arabia. Iran supplies 12% of Indian oil.
But Iran does not want to be paid in Indian currency. China and Korea pay with import/export exchange ... especially cars. India sells a little green tea, but less than a billion dollars worth. Japan was going to help India by selling them yen. And the UAE was going to sell them dirmas. But these deals proved too expensive for India.
This crisis - which has been building for a year, is now about to explode.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Friday, July 1, 2011

US Talking To Muslim Brotherhood

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday the United States officially changed its policy toward the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt. Now the US may engage in direct discussions with the Muslim Brotherhood.
Until now official US policy toward the Muslim Brotherhood was that they would talk only to Egyptian parliamentarians who ran and were elected as independents.
This is a ginormous change in US policy.
The Muslim Brotherhood was the brainchild for both al Qaeda and Hamas. They are major supporters and financial contributors to Hamas. The Brotherhood stands for the exact opposite of freedom and democracy. It represents the Egyptian idea of establishing an Islamic caliphate in Egypt.
The Brotherhood was created in 1928 by Hassan al Banna. It had almost no members until the organization linked with Hitler and the Third Reich. The fascism of Hitlerism blended with Islamic Extremism created a unique creation in the Brotherhood. The secular side of this philosophy was found in the Baath parties in Syria and Iraq. Throughout the decades the Brotherhood has preached the mass murder of all who are not like them.
It is a grave error that the United States is making by lending credibility to the Brotherhood and approaching them as if they were any other party. They are not. They are dangerous. They stand for everything we oppose.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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