By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Tensions between the United States and Israel about how to respond to Iran continue to rise. They have a clear difference of approach on how to handle the situation.
Israel has no doubt that Iran is on the verge of nuclear independence which would, in turn, enable the Iranians to provide enough refined uranium to make nuclear warheads. Israel says that the "window" is 5 months to 18 months. Action must take place before that window closes.
The United States sees the situation very differently. The US wants to continue to monitor and not act. It is far less of a threat for the US and the clock is not ticking nearly as loud as it is for Israel.
But both the US and Israel - and add to that even Iran, know that Israel does not have a knockout punch that would eliminate the entire Iranian nuclear threat. Rather, Israel has a knockdown punch which will delay progress. That means that the US will also have to engage Iran if they want to do the job right.
Israel has another option. They can attack the sites of Iran's national infrastructure - the military headquarters, the intelligence centers, the communication centers, the command and control centers.
That may be the best backup plan Israel can develop.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Monday, January 30, 2012
Iran Threatens Oil Price Rise to $150
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Iran has begun to play hard ball. Iran wants to frighten and to threaten the West.
Yesterday Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qassami announced that Iran will soon stop exporting oil to certain Western European countries.
This announcement came at the same time that the vote in the Iranian parliament over a bill to cease exporting oil to Western European countries was postponed.
Qassami also said that he anticipates that oil will soon reach between $120 - $150 a barrel.
These statements and actions are all meant to strike fear into the hearts of Western decision makers.
Increasing the cost of oil to $150 a barrel will be a crushing blow to certain economies - especially Western European economies. These countries are dependent on oil - and they had already decided that as of June 31 they will not renew any new Iranian oil contracts.
That decision is at the root of Iran's decision to shoot back with statements and moves aimed at hurting Western Europe. Iran rightly believes that Europe cannot sustain itself without reasonably priced oil.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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I've Been Thinking:
Iran has begun to play hard ball. Iran wants to frighten and to threaten the West.
Yesterday Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qassami announced that Iran will soon stop exporting oil to certain Western European countries.
This announcement came at the same time that the vote in the Iranian parliament over a bill to cease exporting oil to Western European countries was postponed.
Qassami also said that he anticipates that oil will soon reach between $120 - $150 a barrel.
These statements and actions are all meant to strike fear into the hearts of Western decision makers.
Increasing the cost of oil to $150 a barrel will be a crushing blow to certain economies - especially Western European economies. These countries are dependent on oil - and they had already decided that as of June 31 they will not renew any new Iranian oil contracts.
That decision is at the root of Iran's decision to shoot back with statements and moves aimed at hurting Western Europe. Iran rightly believes that Europe cannot sustain itself without reasonably priced oil.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Sunday, January 29, 2012
Hamas & Iran on the Rocks
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Hamas has a real problem. They have, to use a colloquialism, ticked off their sugar daddy.
And so, next week Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh will be on his way to Iran to beg for money and support. Haniyeh just returned from his very first trip outside of Gaza, now he will be travelling again.
Iran is so angry at Hamas that under normal circumstances it would be doubtful that they would grant an extension on their lease - for life and for money.
What did Hamas do wrong? Hamas did not support Assad. Iran asked Hamas to lend support and instead Hamas spoke out against Assad. Now Hamas no longer has an interim home in Syria.
As if the situation was not grim enough, a group of Shiites were attacked a few weeks ago in Gaza. That was the nail in the coffin for Hamas.
Iran is not going to be easily swayed. The only thing going for Hamas is that Iran needs proxies and they need friends - now more than ever. If they beg hard enough, Hamas might just be able to bring Iran around, at least for the short term.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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I've Been Thinking:
Hamas has a real problem. They have, to use a colloquialism, ticked off their sugar daddy.
And so, next week Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh will be on his way to Iran to beg for money and support. Haniyeh just returned from his very first trip outside of Gaza, now he will be travelling again.
Iran is so angry at Hamas that under normal circumstances it would be doubtful that they would grant an extension on their lease - for life and for money.
What did Hamas do wrong? Hamas did not support Assad. Iran asked Hamas to lend support and instead Hamas spoke out against Assad. Now Hamas no longer has an interim home in Syria.
As if the situation was not grim enough, a group of Shiites were attacked a few weeks ago in Gaza. That was the nail in the coffin for Hamas.
Iran is not going to be easily swayed. The only thing going for Hamas is that Iran needs proxies and they need friends - now more than ever. If they beg hard enough, Hamas might just be able to bring Iran around, at least for the short term.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Saturday, January 28, 2012
Another Embassy Sacked in Cairo
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday in Cairo the Syria embassy was raided. It was sacked. The first and second floors were totally destroyed by rioters.
At first it was assumed that the rioters were disgruntled Syrians attacking a symbol of their oppressive thugocracy.
But looking at the video it appears that while some of the vandals may be frustrated expat Syrians, the mob was primarily local Egyptians frustrated by the Assad government in Syria and the continued murder of innocent civilians.
I know --- the irony is not lost: Egyptians protesting violence by perpetrating a violent act which could have ended in the brutal murder of embassy employees.
The sacking of the embassy was not really covered by the media. But neither was the sacking of the Saudi embassy a few months ago.
The raid on the Israeli embassy was covered but at first, very slowly. It happened over a weekend so it really was hard to get any real coverage and by the time it was covered, it was over.
It seems that in Cairo, sacking embassies has become a feature of the political landscape and an expression of freedom of speech.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday in Cairo the Syria embassy was raided. It was sacked. The first and second floors were totally destroyed by rioters.
At first it was assumed that the rioters were disgruntled Syrians attacking a symbol of their oppressive thugocracy.
But looking at the video it appears that while some of the vandals may be frustrated expat Syrians, the mob was primarily local Egyptians frustrated by the Assad government in Syria and the continued murder of innocent civilians.
I know --- the irony is not lost: Egyptians protesting violence by perpetrating a violent act which could have ended in the brutal murder of embassy employees.
The sacking of the embassy was not really covered by the media. But neither was the sacking of the Saudi embassy a few months ago.
The raid on the Israeli embassy was covered but at first, very slowly. It happened over a weekend so it really was hard to get any real coverage and by the time it was covered, it was over.
It seems that in Cairo, sacking embassies has become a feature of the political landscape and an expression of freedom of speech.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Friday, January 27, 2012
Warning About Iran
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Dubai Police Chief Lieutenant-General Dahi Khalfan is currently visiting Bahrain. Khalafan took the opportunity to speak about tensions in the region.
He explained that the region is close to war. He said that the first signs of war are already apparent.
"The world will not allow Iran to block it (the Straits of Hormuz). But Tehran is capable of narrowing it to the maximum. In the 1980s, it attacked ships which were afraid to cross the strait. This caused an increase in shipping insurance to enter the Gulf. Prices went up and the region became tense. So, Iran is capable of fomenting tension in the region."
Iran can easily narrow the Straits of Hormuz even more and do it without shooting a single shot - and it will be the beginning of a strangle hold on the West.
Iran can also slow down the traffic in the Straits by creating such a narrow passage that it requires such a slow and gradual process that it will cause ships to spend several days in the crossing.
If they do implement this plan it will take Western monitors a while before they even realize what has happened. By that time Iran will have successfully achieved their goal without conflict and the West will be standing there stupefied and flatfooted.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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I've Been Thinking:
Dubai Police Chief Lieutenant-General Dahi Khalfan is currently visiting Bahrain. Khalafan took the opportunity to speak about tensions in the region.
He explained that the region is close to war. He said that the first signs of war are already apparent.
"The world will not allow Iran to block it (the Straits of Hormuz). But Tehran is capable of narrowing it to the maximum. In the 1980s, it attacked ships which were afraid to cross the strait. This caused an increase in shipping insurance to enter the Gulf. Prices went up and the region became tense. So, Iran is capable of fomenting tension in the region."
Iran can easily narrow the Straits of Hormuz even more and do it without shooting a single shot - and it will be the beginning of a strangle hold on the West.
Iran can also slow down the traffic in the Straits by creating such a narrow passage that it requires such a slow and gradual process that it will cause ships to spend several days in the crossing.
If they do implement this plan it will take Western monitors a while before they even realize what has happened. By that time Iran will have successfully achieved their goal without conflict and the West will be standing there stupefied and flatfooted.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Thursday, January 26, 2012
US Fast Tracks Aid to Egypt
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
The White House has just announced that it will be fast tracking monetary aid to Egypt.
The White House is asserting that last week they had unprecedented meetings with the Muslim Brotherhood. Undersecretary of State Robert Hormats said that Egypt should earn "more immediate benefits" for its move to democracy.
The White House has been pursuing the Muslim Brotherhood for a while now. The US ambassador to Egypt and Senator John Kerry were both sent to talk to the Muslim Brotherhood. That's called high level dialogue and even higher dialogue just took place.
The Muslim Brotherhood is now a group the White House thinks they can work with. The White House cannot be more wrong.
Thinking that the Muslim Brotherhood has been turned into a liberal organization and lovers of democracy is simply myopic and wrong.
There is no real evidence that the Muslim Brotherhood wants to change.
The only evidence we have is that the Muslim Brotherhood wants US aid.
They know what they need to say. They know what the US wants to hear. The Muslim Brotherhood will say anything to get their money.
It just makes no sense.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
I've Been Thinking:
The White House has just announced that it will be fast tracking monetary aid to Egypt.
The White House is asserting that last week they had unprecedented meetings with the Muslim Brotherhood. Undersecretary of State Robert Hormats said that Egypt should earn "more immediate benefits" for its move to democracy.
The White House has been pursuing the Muslim Brotherhood for a while now. The US ambassador to Egypt and Senator John Kerry were both sent to talk to the Muslim Brotherhood. That's called high level dialogue and even higher dialogue just took place.
The Muslim Brotherhood is now a group the White House thinks they can work with. The White House cannot be more wrong.
Thinking that the Muslim Brotherhood has been turned into a liberal organization and lovers of democracy is simply myopic and wrong.
There is no real evidence that the Muslim Brotherhood wants to change.
The only evidence we have is that the Muslim Brotherhood wants US aid.
They know what they need to say. They know what the US wants to hear. The Muslim Brotherhood will say anything to get their money.
It just makes no sense.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Gulf States Pull Out of Syria
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday 52 people were killed in Syria. 39 of those killed were in Hama.
These killings in Hama are particularly poignant. In February of 1982 Bashar Assad's father and uncle massacred 20,000-40,000 people in that same city.
The history of that massive massacre still resounds in the Syria culture. It is an extremely important motivational force and is the reason why today, Hama is a center of anti-Assad activity.
Also yesterday, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) decided to pull their observers out of Syria. They followed the example of Saudi Arabia which had pulled their observers on the very day that the Arab League decided to continue their monitoring of Syria.
Now that the six countries of the GCC have pulled their monitors, the Arab League is questioning whether they will go or stay.
It has become obvious that these monitors have done nothing to stop the killings. Actually the opposite --- more Syrians have been killed since the Arab League sent in their monitors than had been killed before.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday 52 people were killed in Syria. 39 of those killed were in Hama.
These killings in Hama are particularly poignant. In February of 1982 Bashar Assad's father and uncle massacred 20,000-40,000 people in that same city.
The history of that massive massacre still resounds in the Syria culture. It is an extremely important motivational force and is the reason why today, Hama is a center of anti-Assad activity.
Also yesterday, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) decided to pull their observers out of Syria. They followed the example of Saudi Arabia which had pulled their observers on the very day that the Arab League decided to continue their monitoring of Syria.
Now that the six countries of the GCC have pulled their monitors, the Arab League is questioning whether they will go or stay.
It has become obvious that these monitors have done nothing to stop the killings. Actually the opposite --- more Syrians have been killed since the Arab League sent in their monitors than had been killed before.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Russia Selling Jets To Syria
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Kommersant, an important Russian business newspaper, ran a story in yesterday's edition saying Russia just signed an arms deal with Syria.
According to the story in the paper Russia will deliver thirty-six YAK-130 fighter jets to Syria in exchange for $550 million.
There is great significance to this deal - and not because it is a large scale deal and might signify the revamping of the Syrian military.
It is so significant because it illustrates how neither Syrian leadership nor Russian leadership see the tensions in the Syrian street as having any long term impact on the future control and leadership of Bashar Assad in Syria.
The YAK-130 is a brand new plane. It is the fourth generation of YAK and only came on line in December 2009.
All in all, the most remarkable aspect of this deal is that it shows the West that the other side of the world has a very different view on events that we assume to be so very obvious.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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I've Been Thinking:
Kommersant, an important Russian business newspaper, ran a story in yesterday's edition saying Russia just signed an arms deal with Syria.
According to the story in the paper Russia will deliver thirty-six YAK-130 fighter jets to Syria in exchange for $550 million.
There is great significance to this deal - and not because it is a large scale deal and might signify the revamping of the Syrian military.
It is so significant because it illustrates how neither Syrian leadership nor Russian leadership see the tensions in the Syrian street as having any long term impact on the future control and leadership of Bashar Assad in Syria.
The YAK-130 is a brand new plane. It is the fourth generation of YAK and only came on line in December 2009.
All in all, the most remarkable aspect of this deal is that it shows the West that the other side of the world has a very different view on events that we assume to be so very obvious.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Monday, January 23, 2012
Syria Gets Longer Monitors
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
The Arab League decided to extend its mission of monitoring events in Syria for another month.
This is good news for the Syrians.
However, at the very same time, Saudi Arabia decided to pull its monitors from Syria.
The Saudis say that the monitors have failed to bring any security or safety to Syria. They maintain that the 10 months of violence conducted by the Assad government continues as the monitors simply wander and observe.
This Saudi action is extremely damaging to what has, until now, been a united action by the Arab League. The Arab League has tried, albeit unsuccessfully, to exert influence on Syria. But Saudi Arabia has come to the conclusion that they are having no real impact.
I think the Saudis are acting wisely - or at least, in the best interest of the citizens of Syria. It appears that officially sanctioned violence against Syrian citizens has been on the increase since the monitors arrived.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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I've Been Thinking:
The Arab League decided to extend its mission of monitoring events in Syria for another month.
This is good news for the Syrians.
However, at the very same time, Saudi Arabia decided to pull its monitors from Syria.
The Saudis say that the monitors have failed to bring any security or safety to Syria. They maintain that the 10 months of violence conducted by the Assad government continues as the monitors simply wander and observe.
This Saudi action is extremely damaging to what has, until now, been a united action by the Arab League. The Arab League has tried, albeit unsuccessfully, to exert influence on Syria. But Saudi Arabia has come to the conclusion that they are having no real impact.
I think the Saudis are acting wisely - or at least, in the best interest of the citizens of Syria. It appears that officially sanctioned violence against Syrian citizens has been on the increase since the monitors arrived.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Sunday, January 22, 2012
Assasins on Motorbikes in Iran
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Khorramabad, a city of 328,000 in Western Iran, was the site of an assassination yesterday.
A high level army officer was shot and killed, his assistant was injured in the attack. The attackers, on a motorcycle, shot and then drove off.
Motorcycles are extremely useful tools of assassins. Cycles allow for fast escape and mobility and the assassins wear helmets with sun shields which mask their faces.
Motorcycles as a method of attack are not only extremely effective, the technique requires very little practice to perfect. Attackers can easily ditch the motorbike several blocks away, split up and escape using other prearranged vehicles.
In a professional hit the shooters are almost immediately whisked out of the country. They are through security and on a departing plane waiting in the airport within hours of the hit.
These attacks in Iran are most probably carried out by locals who go to safe houses or even resume their normal lives afterward the attacks.
To make this effective as an internal operation, the players must know only about the task they perpetrate. The group must be very small and secretive.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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I've Been Thinking:
Khorramabad, a city of 328,000 in Western Iran, was the site of an assassination yesterday.
A high level army officer was shot and killed, his assistant was injured in the attack. The attackers, on a motorcycle, shot and then drove off.
Motorcycles are extremely useful tools of assassins. Cycles allow for fast escape and mobility and the assassins wear helmets with sun shields which mask their faces.
Motorcycles as a method of attack are not only extremely effective, the technique requires very little practice to perfect. Attackers can easily ditch the motorbike several blocks away, split up and escape using other prearranged vehicles.
In a professional hit the shooters are almost immediately whisked out of the country. They are through security and on a departing plane waiting in the airport within hours of the hit.
These attacks in Iran are most probably carried out by locals who go to safe houses or even resume their normal lives afterward the attacks.
To make this effective as an internal operation, the players must know only about the task they perpetrate. The group must be very small and secretive.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Saturday, January 21, 2012
Iran Moves Against the West
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Iran is once again showing mastery in international gamesmanship.
Iran has announced that international observers may enter their country and they have expressed willingness to talk about their nuclear program.
This action automatically throws a monkey wrench into the sanction plan of the United States. Now the countries that the US is courting to join with them in international sanctions can respond by saying: let's wait, Iran is showing a willingness to talk.
At the same time Iran is threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz.
On any given day about 30% of the world's oil travels through those narrow straits. This threat increases the price of oil and adds pressure to the oil dependent economies of Europe - it applies the crunch that makes it very difficult to think straight. With all this maneuvering emanating from Iran it stands to reason that European countries will start to wonder if acting against Iran's oil is in their individual best interest when their oil costs are going to sky rocket.Iran prepped these actions very well and they expect to see serious results.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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I've Been Thinking:
Iran is once again showing mastery in international gamesmanship.
Iran has announced that international observers may enter their country and they have expressed willingness to talk about their nuclear program.
This action automatically throws a monkey wrench into the sanction plan of the United States. Now the countries that the US is courting to join with them in international sanctions can respond by saying: let's wait, Iran is showing a willingness to talk.
At the same time Iran is threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz.
On any given day about 30% of the world's oil travels through those narrow straits. This threat increases the price of oil and adds pressure to the oil dependent economies of Europe - it applies the crunch that makes it very difficult to think straight. With all this maneuvering emanating from Iran it stands to reason that European countries will start to wonder if acting against Iran's oil is in their individual best interest when their oil costs are going to sky rocket.Iran prepped these actions very well and they expect to see serious results.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Friday, January 20, 2012
Killing Shiites in Gaza
By Micah Halpern
Friday January 20, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
A group of Shiites were brutally beaten in Gaza by Sunni Hamas forces this past Friday.
Traditionally, Shia has not had a presence in Gaza but over the past few months significant numbers of young people have converted to Shia.
Iran is a predominately Shiite country. Iran has been sponsoring programs and activities in Gaza. Iran has also been directly sponsoring Hamas.
Iran has already begun to reduce their contribution to Hamas and these brutal assaults might force them to further reduce it.
Initially, Iran reduced their donations because Hamas refuse to support Assad in Syria and Iran is very pro-Assad.
With violence breaking out between Shiites and Sunnis in Gaza it is highly unlikely that there will be much more money flowing off the Iranian gravy train towards Hamas and Gaza.
That's a mixed blessing.
Micah@MicahHalpen.com
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Friday January 20, 2012
I've Been Thinking:
A group of Shiites were brutally beaten in Gaza by Sunni Hamas forces this past Friday.
Traditionally, Shia has not had a presence in Gaza but over the past few months significant numbers of young people have converted to Shia.
Iran is a predominately Shiite country. Iran has been sponsoring programs and activities in Gaza. Iran has also been directly sponsoring Hamas.
Iran has already begun to reduce their contribution to Hamas and these brutal assaults might force them to further reduce it.
Initially, Iran reduced their donations because Hamas refuse to support Assad in Syria and Iran is very pro-Assad.
With violence breaking out between Shiites and Sunnis in Gaza it is highly unlikely that there will be much more money flowing off the Iranian gravy train towards Hamas and Gaza.
That's a mixed blessing.
Micah@MicahHalpen.com
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Thursday, January 19, 2012
Gaza Fires Rocket on Israel
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Cyber terror has taken over the headlines in Israel this past week.
What most people don't realize, however, is that, real terror has reared its head and that story has gone largely uncovered.
Yesterday a rocket was shot from northern Gaza into Israel. Thankfully, no one was injured by the attack.
As the rocket approached, an alarm was sounded - it is called "Color Red." People had 15 seconds to find safety or get into the bomb shelters. The rocket landed in the beach area in southern Ashkelon.
There is a significant problem here. These rockets are launched with the specific purpose of terrorizing those Israeli residents who live within range. They have no real direction and no real targeting mechanism. They are shot, they fly and they land.
The rockets are launched less as a tool of destruction and more as a tool of terror and intimidation. It is the fear factor that is more important to those launching the rockets than the actual harm that may be done to people or property.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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I've Been Thinking:
Cyber terror has taken over the headlines in Israel this past week.
What most people don't realize, however, is that, real terror has reared its head and that story has gone largely uncovered.
Yesterday a rocket was shot from northern Gaza into Israel. Thankfully, no one was injured by the attack.
As the rocket approached, an alarm was sounded - it is called "Color Red." People had 15 seconds to find safety or get into the bomb shelters. The rocket landed in the beach area in southern Ashkelon.
There is a significant problem here. These rockets are launched with the specific purpose of terrorizing those Israeli residents who live within range. They have no real direction and no real targeting mechanism. They are shot, they fly and they land.
The rockets are launched less as a tool of destruction and more as a tool of terror and intimidation. It is the fear factor that is more important to those launching the rockets than the actual harm that may be done to people or property.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Israel Hackers
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
It is now officially a cyber battle. Hackers against hackers.
The anti-Israeli hackers hit the Tel Aviv stock exchange yesterday as well as the website of the Israeli airline ELAL.
They also attacked Azerbaijan state sites. The hackers placed messages and images saying that the Azerbaijanians were traitors.
OxOmar, the self proclaimed Saudi hacker, joined forces with Nightmare, a hacking group that describes itself as pro-Palestinians.
These hackers want to cause Israel pain.
Now Israel must strike back. The point is not just to defend itself but actually to strike back because the reality is that given enough power and time and protection anyone can hack into anywhere.
To stop this hacking Israel must create a disincentive to breaking into their systems. They must ruin those who launched the attacks - not just destroy their current location but publicly out them and humiliate them.
Hackers need their privacy and hackers need to remain anonymous. To deny that is to destroy a hacker. It is the only way.
This is the only way.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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I've Been Thinking:
It is now officially a cyber battle. Hackers against hackers.
The anti-Israeli hackers hit the Tel Aviv stock exchange yesterday as well as the website of the Israeli airline ELAL.
They also attacked Azerbaijan state sites. The hackers placed messages and images saying that the Azerbaijanians were traitors.
OxOmar, the self proclaimed Saudi hacker, joined forces with Nightmare, a hacking group that describes itself as pro-Palestinians.
These hackers want to cause Israel pain.
Now Israel must strike back. The point is not just to defend itself but actually to strike back because the reality is that given enough power and time and protection anyone can hack into anywhere.
To stop this hacking Israel must create a disincentive to breaking into their systems. They must ruin those who launched the attacks - not just destroy their current location but publicly out them and humiliate them.
Hackers need their privacy and hackers need to remain anonymous. To deny that is to destroy a hacker. It is the only way.
This is the only way.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Killing Iranian Nuke Scientists
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Last week's assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan continues to generate international headlines.
Yesterday the Iranian speaker of the parliament was quoted in the Iranian news as saying that several people responsible for the assassination of the Nitanz nuclear scientist, the man who headed a major division of the nuclear plant, have been arrested.
Now a British paper has released important details on the attack that had not been made public before. According to the paper the assassination took place around the corner from the safest place in Teheran - the intelligence agency headquarters, which happens to be one of Ahmadinejad's pet agencies.
The British paper also reports that just prior to the assassination there was a flurry of police action and the police were all over the area - as if they had intel about an impending attack. And yet, with apparent ease, a motorcycle with two people on it simple attached a bomb and magnet to the scientist's car and sped away undetected.
It is highly unlikely that any of the people who have been arrested have anything to do with the attack or that they can lead back to any agency who helped in the attack.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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I've Been Thinking:
Last week's assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan continues to generate international headlines.
Yesterday the Iranian speaker of the parliament was quoted in the Iranian news as saying that several people responsible for the assassination of the Nitanz nuclear scientist, the man who headed a major division of the nuclear plant, have been arrested.
Now a British paper has released important details on the attack that had not been made public before. According to the paper the assassination took place around the corner from the safest place in Teheran - the intelligence agency headquarters, which happens to be one of Ahmadinejad's pet agencies.
The British paper also reports that just prior to the assassination there was a flurry of police action and the police were all over the area - as if they had intel about an impending attack. And yet, with apparent ease, a motorcycle with two people on it simple attached a bomb and magnet to the scientist's car and sped away undetected.
It is highly unlikely that any of the people who have been arrested have anything to do with the attack or that they can lead back to any agency who helped in the attack.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Monday, January 16, 2012
Adviser of Iran Pres To Jail
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
A senior adviser to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was sentenced to a year in prison yesterday.
A reliable Iranian news website called Mashregh News reported that Ali Akbar Javanfekr, press adviser to the president, was sentenced to prison for insulting the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei .
Javanfekr will be imprisoned for one year and may not engage in any media activity for 5 years after his release.
This case is very illustrative of the nature and politics of Iran.
There should be no doubt that the Ayatollah is the Supreme Leader and everyone - even the president, must always remember that fact. Supreme Leader is one of the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei's official titles.
Iranian politics requires a sense of humility and no one, no one at all, is free to criticize anything or say whatever one desires.
Most importantly, this case clearly reiterates the rule of the land -whoever serves, does so by the grace of and with the blessings of the Supreme Leader. There is no other way.
He who forgets any of those truths will land in prison - or worse.
Micah@Halpern.com
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I've Been Thinking:
A senior adviser to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was sentenced to a year in prison yesterday.
A reliable Iranian news website called Mashregh News reported that Ali Akbar Javanfekr, press adviser to the president, was sentenced to prison for insulting the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei .
Javanfekr will be imprisoned for one year and may not engage in any media activity for 5 years after his release.
This case is very illustrative of the nature and politics of Iran.
There should be no doubt that the Ayatollah is the Supreme Leader and everyone - even the president, must always remember that fact. Supreme Leader is one of the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei's official titles.
Iranian politics requires a sense of humility and no one, no one at all, is free to criticize anything or say whatever one desires.
Most importantly, this case clearly reiterates the rule of the land -whoever serves, does so by the grace of and with the blessings of the Supreme Leader. There is no other way.
He who forgets any of those truths will land in prison - or worse.
Micah@Halpern.com
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Sunday, January 15, 2012
Israel & US Disagree on Iran Attack
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
The United States, especially the White House, has spent considerable time over these past few days trying to convince Israel not to strike Iran.
The US is unclear as to whether their message will be heeded, and that is very frustrating. But honestly, that is part of the Israeli defense strategy.
Allies and enemies are not supposed to be able to predict Israel's actions, especially the timetable for those actions.
There are several reasons why Israel is being ambiguous with the United States about their Iranian attack strategy. The most critical is that Israel is not certain that the US policy of sanctions and military buildup will make Iran back down. Now that another US carrier group has entered the Persian Gulf area the US is saying that they have the situation under control, but Israel doesn't necessarily buy that.
Israel does not believe that, when the time comes, the United States will make the right call. So Israel is taking matters into their own hands and planning their own attack.
That frightens the United States - they worry that Israel is operating on a hair trigger.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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I've Been Thinking:
The United States, especially the White House, has spent considerable time over these past few days trying to convince Israel not to strike Iran.
The US is unclear as to whether their message will be heeded, and that is very frustrating. But honestly, that is part of the Israeli defense strategy.
Allies and enemies are not supposed to be able to predict Israel's actions, especially the timetable for those actions.
There are several reasons why Israel is being ambiguous with the United States about their Iranian attack strategy. The most critical is that Israel is not certain that the US policy of sanctions and military buildup will make Iran back down. Now that another US carrier group has entered the Persian Gulf area the US is saying that they have the situation under control, but Israel doesn't necessarily buy that.
Israel does not believe that, when the time comes, the United States will make the right call. So Israel is taking matters into their own hands and planning their own attack.
That frightens the United States - they worry that Israel is operating on a hair trigger.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Saturday, January 14, 2012
Strange US Message to Iran
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta was quoted in the NYTIMES as saying that the United States is using back channels to tell Iran that closing the Straits of Hormuz is crossing a red line.
The message sounded extremely strong and unambiguous.
Until we heard the context.
The message said that there are two red lines that the United States will not permit Iran to cross. The first was closing the Straits of Hormuz. The second was advancing nuclear technology.
What began as an absolutely clear message ended as one of absolute ambiguity.
Iran knows full well that the US is unclear about the nuclear issue and that the United States has done nothing to aggressively curb their nuclear development other than demanding IAEA inspections.
Odds are the Iranians will recognize the US sensitivity to Hormuz and heed the warning. But they will not focus at all on the nuclear warning.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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I've Been Thinking:
US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta was quoted in the NYTIMES as saying that the United States is using back channels to tell Iran that closing the Straits of Hormuz is crossing a red line.
The message sounded extremely strong and unambiguous.
Until we heard the context.
The message said that there are two red lines that the United States will not permit Iran to cross. The first was closing the Straits of Hormuz. The second was advancing nuclear technology.
What began as an absolutely clear message ended as one of absolute ambiguity.
Iran knows full well that the US is unclear about the nuclear issue and that the United States has done nothing to aggressively curb their nuclear development other than demanding IAEA inspections.
Odds are the Iranians will recognize the US sensitivity to Hormuz and heed the warning. But they will not focus at all on the nuclear warning.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Friday, January 13, 2012
Embargo Arms
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
On Wednesday a Russian ship carrying 60 tons of weapons travelling to Syria was stopped and taken to Cyprus.
While in Cyprus the ship changed its itinerary and listed its new destination as Turkey. The Russian ship was released. It then turned off its GPS locater. The ship was found docked at the Syrian port of Tartus.
The ship was originally stopped because of the embargo on delivering arms to Syria. The way around was to simply change the intended destination and turn off the GPS.
Is beating the embargo that easy? Yes it is.
The question we must now ask is this: Will there be a price to pay for violating the embargo. Russia will claim that it was a private ship owned by a private company with no link to the government of Russia. That is what they will claim.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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I've Been Thinking:
On Wednesday a Russian ship carrying 60 tons of weapons travelling to Syria was stopped and taken to Cyprus.
While in Cyprus the ship changed its itinerary and listed its new destination as Turkey. The Russian ship was released. It then turned off its GPS locater. The ship was found docked at the Syrian port of Tartus.
The ship was originally stopped because of the embargo on delivering arms to Syria. The way around was to simply change the intended destination and turn off the GPS.
Is beating the embargo that easy? Yes it is.
The question we must now ask is this: Will there be a price to pay for violating the embargo. Russia will claim that it was a private ship owned by a private company with no link to the government of Russia. That is what they will claim.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Thursday, January 12, 2012
Hitting Iranian Nuke Leaders
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Another Iranian scientist has been killed by a bomb. The car bomb that killed this scientist is very similar to several other bombs that have been used to kill other Iranian scientists.
At first glance it makes no sense.
This victim was a professor of oil technology. Upon closer investigation it becomes clear that he was no ordinary scientist, he was the head of a division at Nitanz, the Iranian nuclear lab.
Iranian leadership is pointing the finger at Israel. The web is hopping with theories.
The wise-est guess is that the Israelis give assistance to a local group in order to kill the target. The bombs have the rudiments to be effective, but in almost each case, the bombs have been packed with too much explosive and the explosion turns out both literally and figuratively - into overkill.
Right now all we have is speculation.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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I've Been Thinking:
Another Iranian scientist has been killed by a bomb. The car bomb that killed this scientist is very similar to several other bombs that have been used to kill other Iranian scientists.
At first glance it makes no sense.
This victim was a professor of oil technology. Upon closer investigation it becomes clear that he was no ordinary scientist, he was the head of a division at Nitanz, the Iranian nuclear lab.
Iranian leadership is pointing the finger at Israel. The web is hopping with theories.
The wise-est guess is that the Israelis give assistance to a local group in order to kill the target. The bombs have the rudiments to be effective, but in almost each case, the bombs have been packed with too much explosive and the explosion turns out both literally and figuratively - into overkill.
Right now all we have is speculation.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Killing KIlling after Monitors Arrive in Syria
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
A closed door report was presented to the UN Security Council yesterday. The report said that 400 people have been killed in Syria since the Arab League monitors arrived several days ago.
US Ambassador Susan Rice correctly noted that the rate of deaths is significantly higher since the Arab monitors are on the scene.
Of course the Security Council attempted to censure Syria but that was stopped by China and Russia.
Why has the killing increased since the observers came to Syria? One reason is that the resistance has struck back heavily at the establishment and military and many civilian were hurt in the bombings.
One direct results of the presence of Arab monitors in Syria is that the resistance has been emboldened to take risks by attacking Syrian targets. The hope is that the established regime will not strike back as hard while observers are there.
It is unfortunate, but this scenario will cause more deaths.
Assad will continue to strike and strike even harder after he is attacked and he will claim that the resisters are terrorists who blow up civilians. Technically, he is not totally off base.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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I've Been Thinking:
A closed door report was presented to the UN Security Council yesterday. The report said that 400 people have been killed in Syria since the Arab League monitors arrived several days ago.
US Ambassador Susan Rice correctly noted that the rate of deaths is significantly higher since the Arab monitors are on the scene.
Of course the Security Council attempted to censure Syria but that was stopped by China and Russia.
Why has the killing increased since the observers came to Syria? One reason is that the resistance has struck back heavily at the establishment and military and many civilian were hurt in the bombings.
One direct results of the presence of Arab monitors in Syria is that the resistance has been emboldened to take risks by attacking Syrian targets. The hope is that the established regime will not strike back as hard while observers are there.
It is unfortunate, but this scenario will cause more deaths.
Assad will continue to strike and strike even harder after he is attacked and he will claim that the resisters are terrorists who blow up civilians. Technically, he is not totally off base.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Ahmadinejad & Chavez Laugh
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Ahmadinejad is on a four nation South American trip. First stop - Venezuela.
Chavez and Ahmadinejad had a colorful and humorous meeting and then press conference. The butt of their jokes was the Western World.
Chavez said: "That hill will open up and a big atomic bomb will come out."
"The imperialist spokesmen say ... Ahmadinejad and I are going into the Miraflores basement now to set our sights on Washington and launch cannons and missiles ... It's laughable."
The two laughed and hugged.
Ahmadinejad is there to shore up support. He knows that sanctions are going to heighten and that he will need Chavez and his support. Part of what binds these men together is their resentment towards the West.
Iran and Venezuela must create a scenario in which they are unfairly victimized by the United States. That, in turn, will set the stage for the conspiracy and the persecution themes that run through their presentations.
This is how they gain and maintain support internally and how they build alliances.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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I've Been Thinking:
Ahmadinejad is on a four nation South American trip. First stop - Venezuela.
Chavez and Ahmadinejad had a colorful and humorous meeting and then press conference. The butt of their jokes was the Western World.
Chavez said: "That hill will open up and a big atomic bomb will come out."
"The imperialist spokesmen say ... Ahmadinejad and I are going into the Miraflores basement now to set our sights on Washington and launch cannons and missiles ... It's laughable."
The two laughed and hugged.
Ahmadinejad is there to shore up support. He knows that sanctions are going to heighten and that he will need Chavez and his support. Part of what binds these men together is their resentment towards the West.
Iran and Venezuela must create a scenario in which they are unfairly victimized by the United States. That, in turn, will set the stage for the conspiracy and the persecution themes that run through their presentations.
This is how they gain and maintain support internally and how they build alliances.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Monday, January 9, 2012
Hamas - PA Rift
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday a huge internal rift erupted between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.
Three senior Palestinian leaders were travelling to Gaza and they were refused entry by Hamas.
The event led to shouting and one of the senior PA officials, Sakher Bseisso, shouted prolonged curses using the name of the prophet.
This did not help their case.
A Hamas spokesman said that the PA had made their choice - and that the PA seemed to be prioritizing choosing the US and Israel over Palestinian unity and their agreement.
In response Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas issued a statement that he is now revaluating the entire unity agreement between Hamas and the PA which stipulated that they were to share power and hold national elections on May 4.
The Palestinians cannot unite. Each side has too much at stake.
This is just one simple example. Hamas has agreed to become a member of the PLO and submit to Fatah leadership, but that just will not happen.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday a huge internal rift erupted between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.
Three senior Palestinian leaders were travelling to Gaza and they were refused entry by Hamas.
The event led to shouting and one of the senior PA officials, Sakher Bseisso, shouted prolonged curses using the name of the prophet.
This did not help their case.
A Hamas spokesman said that the PA had made their choice - and that the PA seemed to be prioritizing choosing the US and Israel over Palestinian unity and their agreement.
In response Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas issued a statement that he is now revaluating the entire unity agreement between Hamas and the PA which stipulated that they were to share power and hold national elections on May 4.
The Palestinians cannot unite. Each side has too much at stake.
This is just one simple example. Hamas has agreed to become a member of the PLO and submit to Fatah leadership, but that just will not happen.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Sunday, January 8, 2012
War Manuevers in Iran
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
We have heard about the recent military maneuvers conducted by Iran - when they shot surface to air missiles and other weapons.
Iran wanted us to hear about these military maneuvers. It is all part of an orchestrated move to exercise and flex their muscles making sure that the United States knows that the Iranians are capable of defending themselves. For internal consumption, these maneuvers were an important symbol of Iranian pride, telling the Iranians and their military that they have the weapons to repel any US aggression.
But even more interesting than their PR agendas is the military message the Iranians are also sending. These military exercises took place on the Iranian border with Afghanistan.
And then today another set of maneuvers took place not 40 miles from Afghanistan. This is Iran's way of sending a very strong message to those on the Afghani side of the border. The military message to the tribes was --- do not cross without permission.
Iran is in control of its border. Iran is totally out of control. That is not a contradiction, it is the Iranian way.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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I've Been Thinking:
We have heard about the recent military maneuvers conducted by Iran - when they shot surface to air missiles and other weapons.
Iran wanted us to hear about these military maneuvers. It is all part of an orchestrated move to exercise and flex their muscles making sure that the United States knows that the Iranians are capable of defending themselves. For internal consumption, these maneuvers were an important symbol of Iranian pride, telling the Iranians and their military that they have the weapons to repel any US aggression.
But even more interesting than their PR agendas is the military message the Iranians are also sending. These military exercises took place on the Iranian border with Afghanistan.
And then today another set of maneuvers took place not 40 miles from Afghanistan. This is Iran's way of sending a very strong message to those on the Afghani side of the border. The military message to the tribes was --- do not cross without permission.
Iran is in control of its border. Iran is totally out of control. That is not a contradiction, it is the Iranian way.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Saturday, January 7, 2012
Turkey Returns Envoy to Paris
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Turkey is returning their ambassador to Paris. He will be back in the embassy as of first thing Monday morning.
Last month Turkey withdrew the ambassador after the French parliament began debating a law to make it illegal to deny the genocide of the Armenians at the hands of the Ottomans in 1915. A fine of 45,000 Euros is part of the proposal.
This entire exchange shows how immature Turkey has become in the world of international diplomacy.
In the first 10 months of 2011,Turkish bi-national trade equaled $14 billion. France is Turkey's fifth largest export market and its 6th largest import source.
Pulling the ambassador was, simply put, a major mistake. Recalling their ambassador achieved nothing diplomatically and sent no message to France and taught the French absolutely nothing.
All it did was showcase Turkish leadership as immature and vindictive.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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I've Been Thinking:
Turkey is returning their ambassador to Paris. He will be back in the embassy as of first thing Monday morning.
Last month Turkey withdrew the ambassador after the French parliament began debating a law to make it illegal to deny the genocide of the Armenians at the hands of the Ottomans in 1915. A fine of 45,000 Euros is part of the proposal.
This entire exchange shows how immature Turkey has become in the world of international diplomacy.
In the first 10 months of 2011,Turkish bi-national trade equaled $14 billion. France is Turkey's fifth largest export market and its 6th largest import source.
Pulling the ambassador was, simply put, a major mistake. Recalling their ambassador achieved nothing diplomatically and sent no message to France and taught the French absolutely nothing.
All it did was showcase Turkish leadership as immature and vindictive.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
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Friday, January 6, 2012
Shiites killed by Sunnis in Iraq
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday was the most bloody day in Iraq since the United States officially pulled out in December.
A series of coordinated bombings rocked Iraq. At least 72 Shiites were killed and many more were injured.
On one side of the country, pilgrims on their way to the Shiite holy city of Karabla were attacked by a suicide bomber. Others were killed and injured as roadside bombs exploded. One unexploded bomb was found. All the targets were Shiite pilgrims.
At the very same time, in the northern part of Baghdad, in the almost exclusively Shiite neighborhood of Kazimiyeh, another series of explosions rocked the neighborhood.
These attacks are picture perfect examples of al Qaeda attacks against Shiites.
The internal conflict between Shiites and Sunnis will continue to foment. Al Qaeda wants to take advantage of this conflict and will continue to pound away at Shiite targets in Iraq.
To people who support al Qaeda, the Shiites represent heretics and they must be killed.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday was the most bloody day in Iraq since the United States officially pulled out in December.
A series of coordinated bombings rocked Iraq. At least 72 Shiites were killed and many more were injured.
On one side of the country, pilgrims on their way to the Shiite holy city of Karabla were attacked by a suicide bomber. Others were killed and injured as roadside bombs exploded. One unexploded bomb was found. All the targets were Shiite pilgrims.
At the very same time, in the northern part of Baghdad, in the almost exclusively Shiite neighborhood of Kazimiyeh, another series of explosions rocked the neighborhood.
These attacks are picture perfect examples of al Qaeda attacks against Shiites.
The internal conflict between Shiites and Sunnis will continue to foment. Al Qaeda wants to take advantage of this conflict and will continue to pound away at Shiite targets in Iraq.
To people who support al Qaeda, the Shiites represent heretics and they must be killed.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com
Thursday, January 5, 2012
Election Season
By Micah Halpern
Column:
Let's talk Republican primaries. It seems to be the only topic that almost every pundit and poll taker and news commentator can talk about lately - so I'll just plunge right in.
To be perfectly blunt, I find a great deal of the discussion and punditry to be so irresponsible and so far from realistic it frightens me to even refer to it as political commentary.
The first thing the public should realize is that gone are the days when Iowa and New Hampshire set the tone for the national election. This should not be news. Think back four years. Mike Huckabee won the last Republican primary in Iowa. And now, rather than president, he's a pundit. Winning Iowa did not make him a candidate, it just separated him from the non-candidates.
Now think back a little farther. In 1996 Pat Buchanan won the New Hampshire primary and we all know that winning that "key state" primary hardly made Buchanan more electable.
Iowa and New Hampshire get attention as they should - but they deserve that attention because they are the first, not because they set the tone. The votes cast by the responsible voters of Iowa and New Hampshire is not in any way, shape or form representative of the national trend. On the contrary, they are exceptional in as many ways as they are quirky.
All presidential candidates have foibles and the idea of a campaign is to minimize the ugly and put forward the attractive. Iowa and New Hampshire are given first chance to tell the candidates how they are perceived by the public, and then it's up to the candidates to refine, revise and reposition themselves.
The 2012 Republican pack is filled with characters, but it is not filled with candidates. The men and woman who have put forth their candidacy have roles to play and serve different purposes. Ron Paul is not a Republican candidate, he is a Libertarian and the purpose of his candidacy is to educate voters, not to win the nomination. For example, a former Ron Paul staffer who worked with him for twelve years says that Paul is not an anti-Semite or a racist, but that Paul definitely thinks too much US time, energy and money are dedicated to Israel and that things would be better if Israel was not there. That's just another reason to scratch Paul off the real candidate list.
Newt Gingrich is now becoming a contender. He will self destruct. But from the beginning it was clear that he was not a real player. Behind the scenes his campaign shows poor organization and tension. And as people see more of him, Gingrich will again slip back into the position he is more comfortable with and appropriate for, speaker, thinker and critic. He is a gadfly and that, by definition, ousts him as a candidate.
Honestly, intelligence is way overrated in a presidential candidate.
More important than intelligence is the ability to build assets - to assemble and then to listen to what smart, informed advisers are telling you. That requirement for successful leadership has been underplayed in this campaign. But assembling and listening to advisers is one of the most important character traits we need to have in a president.
A president need not be the smartest person in the room. But the president must assemble the best minds for advice and integrate that information and then make decisions.
That does not mean that we should vote for the charismatic candidate and be content to have uninformed men or women cloaked in the mantle of the presidency. A candidate should have new ideas and should be able to work them through and bring them to fruition. And at every meeting, advisers should be presenting hundreds of those new ideas to the candidate just as they will do when that person becomes president - and then the candidate cum president ferrets out the most salient and runs with them.
Basic issues fall by the wayside during election years and we are entranced by smoke and mirrors and big words and promises of bigger ideas and great debates. But simple organization and teamwork should never be minimized as they were, for example, from the Gingrich campaign when the Gingrich team neglected to register in Virginia - and Virginia is the candidate's home state. That type of mistakes tells it all. And then after failing to get the required ten thousand signatures needed for the ballot the campaign responded by saying they would launch a write-in campaign in Virginia. But, oops, it is not permitted to have write-ins for Republican Party presidential primaries in the state of Virginia.
On the bright side, it is better to see examples of massive disorganization, poor foresight and frankly amateurish leadership during a campaign than it is to discover it all after the election. Meeting deadlines and getting the paperwork done is just as important as turning a cute comeback line.
The voters are starting to intuitively understand the subtext of these Republican primaries. They know that brilliance, interesting ideas and fresh points have their limitations. They know that the constant challenge to debate for endless hours without a moderator is stimulating some candidates to make large, expansive, impossible to fulfill, statements.
Time flies when it comes to electioneering and November 2012 is, in election terms, upon us. As soon as the non-candidates deplete their election coffers, the real race will begin. It can't happen too soon.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com
Column:
Let's talk Republican primaries. It seems to be the only topic that almost every pundit and poll taker and news commentator can talk about lately - so I'll just plunge right in.
To be perfectly blunt, I find a great deal of the discussion and punditry to be so irresponsible and so far from realistic it frightens me to even refer to it as political commentary.
The first thing the public should realize is that gone are the days when Iowa and New Hampshire set the tone for the national election. This should not be news. Think back four years. Mike Huckabee won the last Republican primary in Iowa. And now, rather than president, he's a pundit. Winning Iowa did not make him a candidate, it just separated him from the non-candidates.
Now think back a little farther. In 1996 Pat Buchanan won the New Hampshire primary and we all know that winning that "key state" primary hardly made Buchanan more electable.
Iowa and New Hampshire get attention as they should - but they deserve that attention because they are the first, not because they set the tone. The votes cast by the responsible voters of Iowa and New Hampshire is not in any way, shape or form representative of the national trend. On the contrary, they are exceptional in as many ways as they are quirky.
All presidential candidates have foibles and the idea of a campaign is to minimize the ugly and put forward the attractive. Iowa and New Hampshire are given first chance to tell the candidates how they are perceived by the public, and then it's up to the candidates to refine, revise and reposition themselves.
The 2012 Republican pack is filled with characters, but it is not filled with candidates. The men and woman who have put forth their candidacy have roles to play and serve different purposes. Ron Paul is not a Republican candidate, he is a Libertarian and the purpose of his candidacy is to educate voters, not to win the nomination. For example, a former Ron Paul staffer who worked with him for twelve years says that Paul is not an anti-Semite or a racist, but that Paul definitely thinks too much US time, energy and money are dedicated to Israel and that things would be better if Israel was not there. That's just another reason to scratch Paul off the real candidate list.
Newt Gingrich is now becoming a contender. He will self destruct. But from the beginning it was clear that he was not a real player. Behind the scenes his campaign shows poor organization and tension. And as people see more of him, Gingrich will again slip back into the position he is more comfortable with and appropriate for, speaker, thinker and critic. He is a gadfly and that, by definition, ousts him as a candidate.
Honestly, intelligence is way overrated in a presidential candidate.
More important than intelligence is the ability to build assets - to assemble and then to listen to what smart, informed advisers are telling you. That requirement for successful leadership has been underplayed in this campaign. But assembling and listening to advisers is one of the most important character traits we need to have in a president.
A president need not be the smartest person in the room. But the president must assemble the best minds for advice and integrate that information and then make decisions.
That does not mean that we should vote for the charismatic candidate and be content to have uninformed men or women cloaked in the mantle of the presidency. A candidate should have new ideas and should be able to work them through and bring them to fruition. And at every meeting, advisers should be presenting hundreds of those new ideas to the candidate just as they will do when that person becomes president - and then the candidate cum president ferrets out the most salient and runs with them.
Basic issues fall by the wayside during election years and we are entranced by smoke and mirrors and big words and promises of bigger ideas and great debates. But simple organization and teamwork should never be minimized as they were, for example, from the Gingrich campaign when the Gingrich team neglected to register in Virginia - and Virginia is the candidate's home state. That type of mistakes tells it all. And then after failing to get the required ten thousand signatures needed for the ballot the campaign responded by saying they would launch a write-in campaign in Virginia. But, oops, it is not permitted to have write-ins for Republican Party presidential primaries in the state of Virginia.
On the bright side, it is better to see examples of massive disorganization, poor foresight and frankly amateurish leadership during a campaign than it is to discover it all after the election. Meeting deadlines and getting the paperwork done is just as important as turning a cute comeback line.
The voters are starting to intuitively understand the subtext of these Republican primaries. They know that brilliance, interesting ideas and fresh points have their limitations. They know that the constant challenge to debate for endless hours without a moderator is stimulating some candidates to make large, expansive, impossible to fulfill, statements.
Time flies when it comes to electioneering and November 2012 is, in election terms, upon us. As soon as the non-candidates deplete their election coffers, the real race will begin. It can't happen too soon.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Currency in Iran Dives
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Iran's monetary currency, the Riyal, has plummeted 12% since Sunday.
On Saturday President Obama signed new sanctions against Iranian banks. Many Western observers are saying that free fall is due to those sanctions. Of course, the Iranians disagree.
The value of the Iranian Riyal, like other world currencies, is evaluated based on purchase power. If that power weakens the value of the currency falls.
There are several factors that make up that value. One of the factors is psychological. If people feel that there is a strong economy and stable government, the currency value grows. But if the economy is weakened or if there are attacks against the country's infrastructure, the currency's value drops.
The US boycott affects not only Iranian banks, it also effects anyone doing business with Iranian banks.
Bottom line: the Riyal only fell 12% - I am certain that those advising the president were hoping for a 25% fall in value.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com
I've Been Thinking:
Iran's monetary currency, the Riyal, has plummeted 12% since Sunday.
On Saturday President Obama signed new sanctions against Iranian banks. Many Western observers are saying that free fall is due to those sanctions. Of course, the Iranians disagree.
The value of the Iranian Riyal, like other world currencies, is evaluated based on purchase power. If that power weakens the value of the currency falls.
There are several factors that make up that value. One of the factors is psychological. If people feel that there is a strong economy and stable government, the currency value grows. But if the economy is weakened or if there are attacks against the country's infrastructure, the currency's value drops.
The US boycott affects not only Iranian banks, it also effects anyone doing business with Iranian banks.
Bottom line: the Riyal only fell 12% - I am certain that those advising the president were hoping for a 25% fall in value.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Saudi Hackers Hit Israel Banks
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
A group of anonymous Saudi computer hackers claim that they have hacked Israeli credit cards and posted 400,000 of them on line. They say that the personal information of 400,000 Israelis through their credit cards, including expiration dates, are now public.
The hackers hope to create mass hysteria in Israel and have 400,000 people storm their bank's headquarters.
Upon closer investigation, a student of math and computers at the well respected Israeli university called Technion said the hacker's claim is mostly bogus.
Ofer Schwartz says that the hack was really only of 18,000 cards and that the same details were repeated over and over to come to 400,000 entries.
This entire story raises an important issue about credibility and hackers reports. Very often in the hacker world stories are embellished and hackers hyperbolize. The story becomes bigger in order to make a bigger impact. But even in the hacker world there are people who try to set the record straight and keep people honest.
18,000 is a bad hack and should never have happened. But it is not 400,000.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com
I've Been Thinking:
A group of anonymous Saudi computer hackers claim that they have hacked Israeli credit cards and posted 400,000 of them on line. They say that the personal information of 400,000 Israelis through their credit cards, including expiration dates, are now public.
The hackers hope to create mass hysteria in Israel and have 400,000 people storm their bank's headquarters.
Upon closer investigation, a student of math and computers at the well respected Israeli university called Technion said the hacker's claim is mostly bogus.
Ofer Schwartz says that the hack was really only of 18,000 cards and that the same details were repeated over and over to come to 400,000 entries.
This entire story raises an important issue about credibility and hackers reports. Very often in the hacker world stories are embellished and hackers hyperbolize. The story becomes bigger in order to make a bigger impact. But even in the hacker world there are people who try to set the record straight and keep people honest.
18,000 is a bad hack and should never have happened. But it is not 400,000.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com
Monday, January 2, 2012
Santorum Will Bomb Iran
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Rick Santorum announced that unless they let International Observers into their nuclear facilities, he would bomb Iran's nuclear sites.
The Republican nominee wannabe described the current US position developed by President Obama as one of turning the United States "into paper tigers."
The statement is POPULIST. We are seeing more and more of this populist jargon as the Republican primary and the presidential campaign chug along.
Populism has its great benefits. Populism is an attempt to emote a folksy political point of view. Populism represents the masses against the detached leadership.
Then again, populist political platforms almost always oversimplify to the point of being dangerous - and yet, populist points always sway voters, they fuel the momentum which brings voters to a candidate.
Rick Santorum is correct to push for action because he will get support. Where his populism fails is that bombing the nuclear sites does not solve the problem - it opens up a series of other, very complicated, problems.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com
I've Been Thinking:
Rick Santorum announced that unless they let International Observers into their nuclear facilities, he would bomb Iran's nuclear sites.
The Republican nominee wannabe described the current US position developed by President Obama as one of turning the United States "into paper tigers."
The statement is POPULIST. We are seeing more and more of this populist jargon as the Republican primary and the presidential campaign chug along.
Populism has its great benefits. Populism is an attempt to emote a folksy political point of view. Populism represents the masses against the detached leadership.
Then again, populist political platforms almost always oversimplify to the point of being dangerous - and yet, populist points always sway voters, they fuel the momentum which brings voters to a candidate.
Rick Santorum is correct to push for action because he will get support. Where his populism fails is that bombing the nuclear sites does not solve the problem - it opens up a series of other, very complicated, problems.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com
Sunday, January 1, 2012
Muslim Brotherhood Reject Peace Accords
By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
The Arabic newspaper Al Hayat which is headquartered in London is the pulse of much of what happens in the Arabic world. Al Hayat ran an interview with Rashad Bayoumi the #2 person in the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood.
The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is leading in the elections for parliament. Together with the Nouri party, another extremist Muslim party, the extremists can already claim about 75% of the seats in the parliament.
Bayoumi said that the Muslim Brotherhood will never recognize Israel and will never sit with Israel. He said that they will "ask the people" i.e. call for a referendum, about the treaty.
In response to the question of the Brotherhood's adhering to international treaties which they claimed they would do, Bayoumi said that the Brotherhood did not sign the treaty with Israel and that he does not see it as binding.
"We are allowed to ask the people or the elected parliament to express their opinion on the treaty, and (to find out) whether it compromised the people's freedom and sovereignty ... The people will express their opinion on the matter."
Bayoumi continued by saying that "each side has the right to re-examine the treaty."
This does not bode well for the region or for US interests.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com
I've Been Thinking:
The Arabic newspaper Al Hayat which is headquartered in London is the pulse of much of what happens in the Arabic world. Al Hayat ran an interview with Rashad Bayoumi the #2 person in the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood.
The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is leading in the elections for parliament. Together with the Nouri party, another extremist Muslim party, the extremists can already claim about 75% of the seats in the parliament.
Bayoumi said that the Muslim Brotherhood will never recognize Israel and will never sit with Israel. He said that they will "ask the people" i.e. call for a referendum, about the treaty.
In response to the question of the Brotherhood's adhering to international treaties which they claimed they would do, Bayoumi said that the Brotherhood did not sign the treaty with Israel and that he does not see it as binding.
"We are allowed to ask the people or the elected parliament to express their opinion on the treaty, and (to find out) whether it compromised the people's freedom and sovereignty ... The people will express their opinion on the matter."
Bayoumi continued by saying that "each side has the right to re-examine the treaty."
This does not bode well for the region or for US interests.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com
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