Palestinians & 3rd Intifada

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinians are threatening a 3rd Intifada. An intifada is a huge spontaneous uprising against the Israelis.

They threaten violence if Israel does come through on the promised to release the 4th group of Palestinian prisoners. The prisoners were scheduled to be released on Sunday. By Friday it was clear the prisoners would not go free.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that they would go free only after the Palestinians come back to the negotiating table and there is some real progress.

The hook that lured the Palestinians to the table for the last round of talks was the promise to release prisoners. But now, after three sets of prisoners have already been released, the Palestinians are not so eager to return to the table.

Israel says come to the table and you will get the prisoners.

Once again, Israel and the Palestinians are at a stalemate.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Egypt Opens Border w Gaza

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
On Saturday, Egypt opened their border with Gaza at Rafah and permitted 6000 Gazans to enter.
Since July when Sisi overthrew Morsi assuming the presidency of

Egypt the border has been closed and only opened sporadically.
Gazans claim that the thousands of people waiting to re-enter Egypt are students waiting to return to classes and the sick, waiting entry to hospitals for treatment.

The Egyptians say that Gaza is exporting extremism and that using tunnels and border crossings terrorists are entering Egypt and embarking on attacks that result in destabilization and murder.
Egypt has said that since July they have destroyed over 1000 tunnels that smuggles people and goods. They say that now all the tunnels have been destroyed.

But Hamas and other groups claim that there are many more tunnels that have not been destroyed and that they will continue to shuttle people and weapons and food and supplies in and out of Gaza.

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More Violence in Egypt

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Three people died in protests in Cairo yesterday.

The Muslim Brotherhood has been protesting the mass conviction, sentencing and execution of hundreds of members. They have taken to the streets.

As is to be expected, Egyptian authorities have clamped down on the unrest and the streets have turned violent. According to some reports, one of the victims of the violence was a female journalist - but I have not been able to confirm the identities of any of the victims.

Egyptian leadership has determined that the Muslim Brotherhood is a real threat to their democracy and to their very culture as a state. They have finally concluded that the Muslim Brotherhood should be made illegal. The process of closing them down will be fraught with continued conflict and more violence.

To put it in perspective, the Muslim Brotherhood has been a legal organization for just under three years. Since its founding in 1928 until the revolution in 2011 that ousted Hosni Mubarak, the Muslim Brotherhood was illegal.

In Egypt, this situation is not so unusual at all.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Turkey to Shut Down Youtube

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday Turkey began blocking another social media site. Now the Turkish government is shutting down YouTube. Last week Turkish President Erdogan shut down twitter.

Despite the outpouring of international and Western criticism, the site remains shuttered. I am being told that, this time, people are finding ways around the twitter shut down.

YouTube is closed after a damning and embarrassing tape of an important meeting was posted. It was a meeting between the Turkish foreign minister, the head of Turkish intelligence, the deputy head of the Army and other important diplomats and leaders. The government officials were plotting an invasion into Syria.

A leak of this sort was a clear violation of Turkish law. The tape contained plans to intervene in Syria.
YouTube is a platform, it is a vehicle. Content is not evaluated, it is a place where people post.

The government of Turkey should find the person who posted the video and punish that person. YouTube as a social media platform is a great tool and it should not be closed.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Syria Launches New Airline

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Kinda is the name of a new Syrian international airline. The airline will begin operations within the next few weeks.

The most telling part of this new venture is that after three years of civil war Syrian leadership believes that they can invest in the business of moving people - locals, business people and tourists - in and out of two major airports, one in Damascus and the other in Latakia.

Kinda anticipates that within a few months they will be servicing 10 destinations including Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan.

The entire coastal region of Syria is under the total control of Bashar Assad and in his eyes and in the eyes of people on the ground, the situation is fast approaching normalcy.

Syrian leadership hopes that this new government-sponsored airline will help invigorate travel and attract people to visit and invest in Syria as it rebuilds. The creation and launch of Kinda is intended to symbolize the transition from war to rebuilding.

This does not mean that all is quiet, it does mean that the conflict is winding down.

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Iran Opens New Oil Port

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Iran always thinks strategically. And the move they just made is brilliant.

According to ISNA, the official government Iranian Student News Agency, Iran is planning to open an oil shipping terminal outside the straits of Hormuz, in Bandar Jask on the Gulf of Oman.

It will be the second oil terminal Iran has opened outside of
Hormuz. The first is on the inland of Khark.

Why is this move so brilliant? Because it protects Iranian national interests.

Somewhere between 20% and 25% of the daily supply of oil for the entire world goes through the Straits of Hormuz. And Iran is in control of the Straits.

But Iran has threatened to shut down the Straits. If they did indeed shut them down, it would impact their own oil exports. But if Iran had its own outlet for oil, an outlet that avoided the Straits, they would be free to close the Straits of Hormuz at any time without any real economic risk.

The price of crude oil would skyrocket and Iran could continue to supply the market. A win win for Iran.

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Arab League Summit- Conflict

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The 25th Arab League Summit is now taking place. The summit is fraught with tension.

So far, participants have agreed that the 26th summit will be held next year in Cairo.

But seriously now, Qatar is causing a stir. Qatar is sponsoring the Muslim Brotherhood - and Saudi Arabia and Egypt are trying to pressure Qatar to withdraw that support.

There is real talk about creating an Arab League resolution that would condemn terror and isolate the Muslim Brotherhood. Both Egypt and Saudi Arabia are in agreement that the Muslim Brotherhood is a major cause of internal strike within the Arab world in general, and especially in their respective countries.

Other points of contention during this summit are the Arab spring and events in Syria.

Interestingly, last year during the summit Syrian opposition sat in the Syrian chair - this year the chair is empty. The Arab League is not convinced that Syrian opposition, because of who they are and what they represent, deserve a seat at the table.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Hamas Sent Text Messages to Israel

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas, or some other terror group from Gaza, has just sent out a mass series of text messages. The messages threaten Israel and promise revenge for the death of Sheik Ahmed Yassin who was killed in a surgical missile strike by Israel in Gaza 10 years ago.

The texts, written in Hebrew, read:

"If Gaza will be attacked the life of the Zionists will be hell"

"In the next war all the Land of Palestine will return"

"Al Qassam has chosen you to be the next Shalit"

"We don't forget the blood of our sheik. We swear again to take revenge, and this time by taking off the head of your leaders"

"Zionist killed our sheik by missile and now our missile can hit every corner of Zionist state"
And they are signed: "Sheikh Yassin's Followers"

The purpose of these messages is to frighten average Israelis who picked up their phones and were invaded with the text messages.

Israel's phone systems were hacked. In 2009 Hamas also succeeded in sending text messages, but the Hebrew was very poor and they were not taken seriously. These are different. This time Israelis who read the texts feel as if their privacy has been invaded. It is as if the terrorists threatened them personally.

The phone companies are trying to make certain that this does not happen again.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Pollard May Be Incentive

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The US Israel relationship is very sturdy. It is also very complicated.

Yes, the United States is upset because Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon has spoken out of turn. And there will be a price to pay. Exactly how much and when is still to be decided.

But now the US is also very worried, this time about the breakdown of Israeli Palestinian talks. The deadline is just a few weeks away. And the US needs to incentivize the talks.

Israel is the party that will need to capitulate, accommodate and compromise. That is the nature of the beast. Israel is the powerful party and in the eyes of the United States it is Israel, not the Palestinians, who must give
in.
Given the impasse, the question of the day is what will help Israel along the path to compromise? There are not many things that can be used as incentives for Israel.

And so, for the first time in decades, I am hearing whispers about the United States raising the Jonathan Pollard case and using it as a fulcrum to help Israel come around to thinking about the negotiations through the perspective of the United States.

In the end, the United States may very well sweeten the deal by promising to release convicted spy Jonathan Pollard. That would be a new, and long sought, development.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Israel's Def Min Insults US-- Again

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's Defense Minister has once again insulted the United States. Defense Minister Ya'alon, voicing his own point of view, said that the image that US President Obama and the United States present to the world is best described as "feebleness."

In the past Ya'alon has said that Kerry "should just get his Noble Peace Prize and leave us alone."

And indeed, in the past Ya'alon has apologized. This time he offered a clarification to US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel. But neither the White House nor the State Department are satisfied with the "clarification."

The question begs asking: why does the White House care at all about the rants of Israel's Defense Minister.
Sure, his comments were insulting but they were for internal consumption not for international broadcasting.
And internally, the Israeli understood. They took the comments for what they were - an attack on their own prime minister.

Now Ya'alon is persona non grata in the halls of power. I doubt that this time not even an apology will get him out of the DC dog house. And I fear that this situation might impact on Ya'alon's ability to do his job.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Turkey Wants to Close Twitter

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey is on the eve of national municipal elections scheduled for March 30.

Pressure is mounting. These municipal elections are a referendum on Erdogan and his leadership. While he is not running personally in this election, everyone in the country is either voting for or against him by proxy.

Yesterday at an election rally Erdogan threatened to shut down twitter and other social media. The social media chatter has become an effective tool of the opposition especially the youth.

Erdogan said that he will shut them down and he does not care about world condemnation. Of course, Erdogan's statements are electioneering. He is trying to turn his people against the West and Western technology.

No one can predict what will happen. Erdogan can fail or he can succeed. Only time will tell.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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PA To Drill For Oil

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Every once in a while you hear or read about crazy idea.

Like this: EU representative and former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair together with US Secretary of State
John Kerry are suggesting that the Palestinians drill for oil. The two leaders drew up the initiative and now, together with the Palestinian Authority, they are seeking proposals for oil exploration.

What were they thinking? The area that the Palestinian Authority plans to explore covers 155 square miles - and most of it is in Israeli controlled land. According to all previous agreements as well as the location for the exploration, the process would require Israel's agreement.

Why are Blair and Kerry involved? What company would dump money into this exploration? Has no one asked for the research?

There have already been a large number of exploration surveys and viability studies. And all the research has determined that there is no energy profit to be made in the West Bank and that part of Israel.

Crazy and dangerous. Blair and Kerry have just created and opened up another Pandora's Box of strife and controversy between the PA and Israel.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Egypt & Ethiopia in Conflict Over Nile

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt and Ethiopia have been locked in conflict for a year.

Ethiopia is diverting part of the Blue Nile River in order to create a huge hydro electric dam called the Great Renaissance Dam. Work on the $4.7 billion project began last year and should be completed in three more years.

The Blue Nile begins in Ethiopia and flows into Sudan where it merges with the White Nile and forms the famous Nile River.

Diverting the Nile for any purpose is an explosive act because it could cause a death blow to any of the ten Nile Basin desert countries that are dependent on its fresh water.

In 1929 Egypt and Ethiopia signed a treaty promising not to alter the Nile without mutual approval. Then, in 1970, when Ethiopia attempted to build 26 dams Egypt rejected the plan. And in 1993 the two countries again signed a deal stipulating that neither would do anything to the Nile that would harm the other's interests.

Now we arrive at the present day conflict.

Both parties are talking but there is no agreement. Egypt is not happy with the current project and tensions are rising.

In that part of the world fresh water is far more valuable than oil.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Jerusalem the Gold Model for Muslims

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

An Islamic conference is taking place in Teheran, Iran right now. Of course, one of the major themes of the conference focuses on the evils of Israel or, as they call it, the Zionist entity.

Ramadan Salah, the leader of Islamic Jihad in Gaza, spoke in a way that was truly surprising. Salah explained the significance of

Naomi Shemer's legendary song "Jerusalem the Gold" saying that the Zionists have taught their children the importance of Jerusalem and this famous song symbolizes that message.

Salah said: "There is a song the Zionist army sang when it conquered the Al-Aqsa mosque. It is called Jerusalem of Gold."

"Every child in the Zionist entity and every soldier in that cursed entity memorizes the lyrics to this song."

Then he added: "many well-known Western artists have sung it in English."
By way of critique and comparison Salah asked the crowd: "What is the significance of Jerusalem in our culture?" "What is its significance in our religion?"

The leader of Islamic Jihad in Gaza was telling the Muslim participants at this conference that Jews around the world connect to Jerusalem as do so many other people around the world - while Muslims do not.

His plea to Muslim leaders was to go home and change their message.

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Israel Improves Security Due to Malaysia Flight

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is responding to the disappearance of Malaysia flight # 370.

The Israelis have instituted a series of new security steps to prevent commercial aircraft from becoming weapons.

Israel has extended the required range for airlines to announce that they will be entering Israeli airspace. The buffer was already a significant distance and security secret. Now it is even larger and gives radar and air force teams that much more time to make certain that a passenger airplane is indeed what it says it is.

Over the past year there have been numerous passenger planes that have not followed Israel's procedures in air. They entered Israeli airspace and were met with F-16 fighter jets and escorts until they properly identified themselves using the required codes.

Israel believes that pilot suicide and plane hijackings are very real risks to their security, so they are constantly and diligently improving their security measures.

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Abbas to DC to Meet Obama

By Micah Halpern

I'm Predicting:
On Monday US President Obama will meet with Palestinian President Abbas.

The agenda is clear. Obama wants to inject a sense of hope into a negotiation process that has ground to a halt and seems totally hopeless.

Obama has charisma and charm and he can certainly make Abbas feel good about himself which is part of the White House's objective.

But Abbas is not happy with the peace plan as it now stands - the stakes are too high and his legacy is at stake.

A few days ago, in Ramallah, Abbas said:: "I am 79 years old and am not ready to end my life with treason." He sees the US suggested agreement as exactly that - a form of treason.

Now, we have not seen the agreement. And actually, on Friday, Abbas said that he has not seen an agreement either. I can only guess what is in the agreement - and that is not where the problem lies.

The problem is recognizing Israel as a Jewish state.

Abbas is so upset by the process conducted by the US that he is being pressured by his advisers and others to just declare independence. He feels he would get UN support and his advisers are shouting at him not to extend the negotiation deadline beyond April.

That explains why the leader of the Palestinian Authority went to Russia at the end of January. He admitted his frustration to Moscow and they are probably coming up with an alternative plan.

I would predict that when Abbas walks out of the Oval Office he will be more hopeful than when he walks in. Obama will succeed in persuading Abbas to give the peace talks more of a chance. Obama will ask for another year, Abbas will probably concede to three to six more months of negotiations.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Russian War Games in The Med

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

We have not paid much attention to the Russian navy now stationed in the Mediterranean.

The Russians have a very formidable force in the Middle East. Most significantly their only aircraft carrier, named Admiral Kunetzov, is stationed in the region.

And it should come as no surprise that the Russians are presently engaged in war games and exercises in the Mediterranean. That means that tens of fighter jets and helicopters are practicing and drilling their evacuation and medical teams.

But the real purpose of this public display is to let everyone know that Russia has a real force in the region.

Russia is also making a clear point: As things get more difficult for Russia in the Ukraine, things will get more difficult for the West in Syria and in the Middle East.

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US Changed POV on "jewish State"

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Imagine my surprise when I read this official comment by Jen Psaki, a spokeswoman for the State Department.

Psaki said that --- "If you look at the issue of a Jewish state and whether Israel will be called a Jewish state, that's been our position, as you know, for a long time, but that doesn't reflect what the parties will agree to ... and of course there are many issues like that that are being discussed as part of the framework."

This comment means that the US is not committed to the Israel's demand that the Palestinians accept Israel
as a Jewish State.

This statement assumes that the Jewish State issue is still up for discussion. That means that US Secretary of State Kerry realizes that Palestinian President Abbas will not budge on this issue.
And that in turn means that Israel must be forced to compromise.

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Iran & Oman Meet

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

President Hassan Rouhani of Iran made his first visit to an Arab country since assuming office. Yesterday, Rouhani visited Oman.

This short two day trip is much more important than it appears.

Rouhani flew into Muscat accompanied by a very significant Iranian economic delegation. Ostensibly, the purpose of the trip is to build better relations between the countries and to bolster trade and, quite frankly, all other interactions.

But the real purpose of this trip is to explore mutual interests.

Iran and Oman are separated by only one tiny strait. They share the most important straits in the world - the Straits of Hormuz. On one side is Iran and on the other is Oman. And every single day between 20% and 25% of the world's oil passes through those straits.

Iran and Oman need to be on decent terms in order to effectively achieve their own and their shared aims.
They both know that there is much that divides them. Rouhani is hoping to find those things that unite them and to make Oman happy enough to permit Iran to use
Hormuz in order to achieve its objectives.

We can only guess at what those objectives are.

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Turkey Erupts Again

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Protests plague Turkey once again.

This time around the protests have erupted for several reasons.

Most important is that a 15 year old boy died from the wounds he suffered during an anti-government protest in June last summer. The boy was hit with a tear gas canister and lapsed into a coma. Upon his death, huge rallies were organized.

Although people are, quite rightfully, upset by the death of this young man his death is really a tool with which to draw Turks to the protests.

The real reason for the huge anti-government protests taking place now is that in less than three weeks the nation goes to the polls. And although the elections will only be for municipal and regional posts, the entire country will be voting.

The election is seen as a referendum for or against President Erdogan.

For the first time since he was elected to power nine years ago in 2003, Erdogan is worried.

In December major players associated with Erdogan were arrested and investigated on corruption charges. He has since begun a significant - but unsuccessful - campaign to prop himself up and deflecting the bad PR.

Turkey has been out of the limelight for some time. Expect it to return to center stage in the next month.

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Gas -- The Ukraine and Russia

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The UN Security Council met again yesterday - and Russia was feeling the isolation. Everyone, even China, spoke against the Russian land grab in Crimea and the future referendum scheduled for May 16.

The EU is going to meet next week, on March 17, and they will be talking about increasing their pressure on Russia to pull out.

But Russia still has a few cards still to play.

Gazprom, the Russian gas company, supplies the Ukraine with natural gas. They are demanding payment for February which comes to $1.3 billion. Gazprom is the largest natural gas extractor and supplier in the world.
Russia says that if they do not get paid they will not deliver gas in March.

There's more. Six EU countries receive 100% of their natural gas from Russia. 75% of Russia's natural gas export goes to the EU. That means that Russia exerts tremendous influence on EU decisions.

The EU and the West can try to flex their muscles but it should be clear who holds the better cards in this game.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Libya on Verge of Civil War

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Conflict is about to get ugly in Libya. It is a country on the verge of a civil war.
Rebels, who are demanding more liberal changes, have taken over three major ports since the summer. Now a North Korean oil tanker is sitting in the port of Sadr. The rebels want to fill the tanker and send it on its way.

Libyan Prime Minister Ali Zeidan went on national TV and warned everyone, including the crew of the ship, saying: "The tanker will be bombed if it doesn't follow orders when leaving (the port). This will be an environmental disaster."

Zeidan was not issuing an idle threat. In January the Libyans used their navy to block rebel ports and prevent tankers from entering and picking up oil.

On Saturday the rebels sacrificed a camel in Sadr and the footage shows the North Korean tanker in the background. The rebels were celebrating their first filling of the tanker filling and wishing it well.

It looks like a Libyan standoff. Expect fireworks - literally.

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Hamas Beats Up On Fatah in Gaza

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas police brutally beat up on and then broke up a rally of Fatah supporters in Khan Yunis today. People were injured and people were arrested. They twenty people who were arrested were released only after signing a document saying that they would never again participate in illegal gatherings.

The rally was a memorial and show of support for those who died fighting (against Israel).

The rally did not have a permit - and that was the reason given for breaking it up.

The entire episode shows the important distinctions and tensions that exist between Hamas and Fatah, the two largest Palestinian groups. Ever since the parliamentary election of 2006, when Hamas won the plurality but Abbas and the PA never permitted them to assume their elected, role there have been violent tensions between the groups. That includes the 2007 brutal and murderous coup that ousted the PA from Gaza.

There have been attempts at reconciliation. And agreements have been signed. The latest agreement was signed in 2012, but never implemented. There is terrible hatred and terrible distrust between Hamas and Fatah.

Now Hamas is feeling the strangle hold of Egypt which closed their border with Gaza and has made Hamas illegal in Egypt. Add to that the loss of Hezbollah and Iranian support and you understand how Hamas has been marginalized, weakened and starved.

Hamas will continue to lash out at Fatah and the Palestinian Authority. That is all that is left for them to do.

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US - Israel Special Relationship

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, Congress passed a bill that transforms the relationship between the United States and Israel.

The bill classifies Israel as a "strategic partner." That classification comes with great benefits. Under the bill Israel will receive tremendous security benefits as well as priority on weapons surpluses.

The bill is now off to the Senate where it is expected to pass overwhelmingly and then to the president who is expected to sign it.

The original draft of the legislation had an additional benefit that Israeli citizens were very much hoping to achieve. But in the final version, it was removed.

The clause would have permitted Israelis automatic tourist visas. Israeli citizens would get visas upon arrival in the United States the same way US citizens get them when they enter Israel. It would have streamlined Israelis access to the US, a process that often requires long months of waiting and even denial.

That privileged status may still come - but at a later date and by way of another bill.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Agreements to Protect -- Don't Protect

By Micah Halpern

Thursday March 6, 2014
I've Been Thinking:

Have any of you heard of the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances? Here's a hint. It was signed in Budapest, in 1994.

My guess is, probably not.

The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances was an agreement wherein the Ukraine agreed to dismantle all nuclear weapons in exchange for security and safety. It was signed in Budapest on December of 1994 and the signees were US President Bill Clinton, British Prime Minister John Major and Russian President Boris Yeltsin.

Here is the official summary: Russia, the UK and the USA undertake to respect Ukraine's borders in accordance with the principles of the 1975 CSCE Final Act, to abstain from the use or threat of force against Ukraine, to support Ukraine where an attempt is made to place pressure on it by economic coercion, and to bring any incident of aggression by a nuclear power before the UN Security Council.

In other words: the United States and Great Britain (forget about Russia) and the world promise to protect the Ukraine.

This agreement and others like it, really do not help much. This one is certainly not protecting the Ukraine.

Now imagine what Israel is thinking and what lessons Israelis are learning from this. How can Israel possibly assume that the United States will, should the time come, come to its defense?
Israel has learned that the best they can expect is an appeal to the UN Security Council. Not much consolation there.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Quenelle Salute - Player Gets Punished

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The UEFA suspended Omar Rahou for repeatedly using the quenelle, the inverted Nazi salute. The Union of European Football (soccer) Associations has zero tolerance for any hint of racism and has punished Rahou a Belgium player for 10 games.

Omar Rahou joins Nicolas Anelka as players who used the saluted and suffered the punishment suspension.

The quenelle has become a rallying point for anti-Semites throughout Europe as they follow in the footsteps of the French comedian, Dieudonne, who invented the gesture.

The shame of it all is that the quenelle continues to gain popularity. On the positive side, decent people and organizations like the UEFA understand the danger of this kind of racism and are clamping down and doing their best to stymie the momentum.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Why We Should Care About Ukraine

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past week or so one of the most common questions asked of me on air and during lectures has been about the Ukraine and the role of Russia vis a vis the Ukraine.

More specifically, people are asking why we should care about what happens in the Ukraine. And they are asking if Russia is pulling a land grab.

My response is brief and to the point: Think energy natural gas and oil.

Since the crisis with Russia and the Ukraine, oil and natural gas prices have skyrocketed. The principle reason for the increase is that Russia is a major producer and refiner of oil and a producer of natural gas. And the Ukraine's largest export is oil.

Now that there is a threat of war between Russia and the Ukraine the market is talking. And the market is saying that any actions that put at risk the flow of oil and natural gas will drive up prices.

Because Russia is poised for war and has taken over Crimea, the price of energy has increased.

If that isn't enough of a reason for the West to care about what is happening with the Ukraine and Russia, I don't know what is.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Bibi Obama Meet Today

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

In the Oval Office today President Barack Obama will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Both leaders have made opening moves before the meeting. On Thursday Obama sat down for an interview with Jeffery Goldberg that was posted on Sunday, on Bloomberg. Before boarding his plane to the US, Netanyahu issued a statement from his office.

There was a clear objective in both messages - announcing the direction they each wanted the meeting to take. As is often the case, there was nothing new or surprising in either message, nothing the other leader is not already aware of.

In essence, both Israel and the United States are on the same side conceptually, it is the practical side, the nuts and bolts, that puts them at odds with each other. Actually, it is all about time and timing.

Obama believes that there is no real time left for continued discussion of the Palestinian issue. He believes that if a resolution is not arrived at now, the United States will not be able to successfully support Israel in the international arena. And on the Iranian issue, on the other hand, Obama thinks there is plenty of time left to let Iran come around.

Netanyahu thinks exactly the opposite. He believes that there is plenty of time on the Palestinian issue but on the Iranian issue, there is no time left at all.

It is past the point where Obama and Netanyahu can agree to disagree. Sparks will be flying out of the Oval Office.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Difference Btw Ukraine & Egypt

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
What makes the ousting of the Ukrainian President Victor Yukashenko different from the ousting of the democratically elected Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi?

The difference is that Egypt's ousting of Morsi was accomplished by a coup and Ukraine's ousting of Yukashenko was a legal transition of power.

Both leaders were elected to serve their country. During the resulting unrest, there was violence and people were killed in both countries. Both had huge rallies in support of and opposition to their leadership and there were massive protests in both main city squares. In both cases the protestors leaned towards Western influences while the presidents leaned toward traditional, older school influences. In the case of Egypt, Morsi affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood and in the Ukraine Yukashenko leaned toward Russia.

The significant difference is that in the Ukraine, Yukashenko fled. He fled the capital and tried to escape the country. Eventually, he succeeded and landed in Moscow. Yukashenko ran for his life for fear of being killed or arrested. He abdicated his office.

Once he left his office, he was no longer in charge and the process of transition applied. The Ukrainian parliament put a temporary government in place and stability was restored.

In Egypt, Morsi refused to leave. He had to be forced out of his post, then he was arrested and then he was replaced.

In the end it may sound the same but in reality it is the difference between a coup d'etat and a democratic ousting of an elected president.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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WMD Convoy Attacked in Syria

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

No details were given but it was a very disturbing report.

According to a report given to the UN Security Council, two convoys carrying chemical weapons were attacked while transferring their materials in Syria. The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical
Weapons told the UN Security Council that on Thursday January 27, 2014 while transporting Syrian weapons of mass destruction for their ultimate removal and destruction the convoys were attacked.

Unfortunately, we do not know who attacked the convoys nor do we know the nature of the attack or the extent of the damage.

We can assume, however, that the weapons were not compromised. We can assume that they did not become volatile and/or dangerous. We can also assume that the weapons did not fall into the wrong hands.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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