What Hamas Says About Abbas

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas leader Mohammed Al Zahar told Reuters that Abbas is not telling the truth about Hamas and their recognition of Israel. Al Zahar said it is simply not true.

In an extensive interview with the news service the Hamas leader was very forthright and very clearly explained Abbas' motives.

Al Zahar said that Abbas is "very weak" and that "he is seeking a guarantee that US financial support will continue."

He continued by saying that the idea that the government would be composed of academics and technocrats was also a big Abbas lie cultivated in order to assure Western powers of something that will not happen.

"Abbas is not telling them the truth. He says 'this is my government'. But it is not his government. It is a government of national unity. He is marketing it in this way to minimize the pressure."

It seems that Hamas understands the ways the motives and the manipulations of Abbas. It also seems that the United States and the West do not understand either Abbas or his tactics.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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China Cancels Big Bang Theory

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

We have known for a long time that China wants to control the internet within their borders.

The reasoning goes like this: If you can control the flow of information you can control the truth and limit access to resources and alternative views. You can prevent real communication and organization. And you can control the culture that people are exposed to.

The internet represents freedom. And China is flexing its muscles.

Chinese youth watch TV through the internet and the most popular shows on Chinese television are US shows. The shows are viewed on sites like Shohu TV, Youku and iQiyi. Yesterday China yanked several US shows off the internet. The government forced them to pull, The Big Bang Theory, The Good Wife, NCIS and The Practice.

One can probably find an ideological reason for pulling the shows - except for The Big Bang Theory. It is a harmless comedy about socially awkward academics guys who share an apartment. Why yank
The Big Bang Theory?

My only answer is the great success and popularity of the show. So far the series has been viewed 1.3 billion times in China. Do the calculation - almost one view for every person in China. And that means the people are not watching the tepid boring communist shows.

The Big Bang was cut because too many people were watching it. And now Chinese viewers are up in arms and have taken to the internet to plead their case.

We shall see what happens.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Presidential Election in Egypt

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

A presidential election in Egypt is scheduled for May 26 & 27. The most serious candidate running for office is al Sisi, the force behind the ousting of Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood last July.

Since the ousting Egypt, has been run by an interim government and has been setting the stage for new elections ten months later.

The Muslim Brotherhood has called on their supporters to boycott the elections. We are told that from his prison cell, ousted president Morsi is saying that the elections are illegal and that people must boycott them.

On Sunday al Sisi explained to the country how important these elections are and he called on all Egyptians to unite and come out and vote in "unprecedented numbers for the sake of Egypt."

There is no doubt that al Sisi will win the May election. The question is whether he can unite Egypt and guide his country back into a position of power and productivity.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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The Real Situation

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
The response to the breakdown of peace talks between the PA and the Israelis has been telling. But when it comes to the Middle East, you do not take anything at face value.

The sanctions that Israel has imposed will soon be lifted.

Palestinian tax money that has been collected at Israeli ports and withheld by Israel will soon make its way to Palestinian national accounts. And the goods that normally cross into the PA and Gaza will continue again as they did. It may take a week or a few days longer, but it will happen.

The international community will insist on it and Israel knows that they must deliver it. It was a gesture. And Israel will not withhold electricity or power even if they do not receive payment because of a Palestinian cash shortage.

The Palestinian Authority has run headlong into the embrace of Hamas and in so doing they have insulted Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and almost every other Arab country except Qatar. All these countries have isolated Hamas because of links to the Muslim Brotherhood. The

Brotherhood has sworn to overthrow each of them and Hamas represents the Brotherhood.
The PA cannot live in that situation. They gain almost nothing from association with Hamas. Besides, they will agree on almost nothing. They will never be able to share power and authority.

Hamas thinks that this agreement will enable them access to PA money. But money from abroad will not flow (except from Qatar and the taxes that Israel will soon return) as long as there is a union between them.

All around, this is a very bad decision and it will be self-corrected very shortly. Then the real problem re-emerges.

The stalemate between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas is malignant and it will remain the status quo.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Obama Lemonade

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
 
As the folksy expression goes, when you have lemons make lemonade. And President Barack Obama has just made himself a big tall glass.

The Israelis and the Palestinians are frustrated. A huge chasm divides them. Peace talks have broken down. And US President Obama is quoted as saying that "there may come a point at which there just needs to be a pause and both sides need to look at the alternatives."

Duh!

In other words, the Israelis and the Palestinians need time away from one another in order to see how good the peace deal really is. And that separation is actually a good thing and a part of the plan.

Hearing his speak, one would think that the United States actually thought it was a good idea for the talks to break down so that when they get back together, the parties will see how valuable and important the resolution is to them and to each other.

Despite the cool and refreshing illusion that lemonade conjures, the reality is that the drink itself is extremely tart, acidic and difficult to swallow.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Anti-Semitism: Russia vs Ukraine

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

I cannot determine with 100% certainty those responsible for the new wave of anti-Semitism spreading through Ukraine and Crimea. But my sense is that both Russians and Ukrainians are responsible, each in the own way, for variant forms of the despicable racism.

The first major act of anti-Semitism took place in Donetsk, a province in Ukraine, on the eve of Passover when leaflets were passed out asking Jews over 16 years of age to register at their local offices and to register their property and cars, as well. The fee for this mandatory registration was $50.

The following Friday night, in the southern Ukrainian city of Nikolayev, two fire bombs were thrown at the main synagogue. The firebombing took place on the Sabbath eve of Passover.

This past Tuesday, in Crimea, in the city of Sevastopol, the Holocaust memorial was vandalized with a huge red sickle. The memorial is relatively new, having been erected in 2003.

In Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine's 4th largest city with a population of over one million, the grave site of Dov Ber Schneerson, the brother of Menachem, the previous Grand Rabbi of Lubavitch, Chabad was covered with graffiti swastikas.

And this past winter two synagogues were fire bombed and a Jewish person was stabbed in Kiev.
Anti-Semitic violence will only increase in both Ukraine and Crimea as long as stability and order elude those countries.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Hamas - PA Deal

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas and the Palestinian Authority signed an agreement yesterday.

The overall winner is Hamas. They get almost everything. Abbas and the PA get to rub the faces of the United States and Israel in the mud.

The reality is that all the conditions as agreed upon in this current agreement were already signed onto in two previous agreements - one in Doha and the other in Cairo. The only difference is the timetable.

There are very few details about any sharing of power in any of the three agreements.

So why did Hamas once again agree to this? The real problem for Hamas is that Gaza needs money. They have been bled dry. There is an almost total barricade of funds entering Gaza. Most Arab countries, with only one exception, have long ago withdrawn their support of Hamas. Even Iran, the lone holdout, no longer supports Hamas in Gaza because they are on opposite sides in Syria.

It is the hope of monetary aid that helps drive Hamas' acceptance of the deal.

As for the PA, they have now entered into an agreement and joined forces with a registered and universally accepted terror organization.

United States law, as well as almost all of European law, prohibits supporting a terror organization. That means that the monetary aid, the raison d'etre of Hamas for joining with the PA, will stop.
There is no way the White House can justify sending funds to a Palestinian government that includes Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Europe Sees the Jihad Threat

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Both the French and Dutch governments issued reports today that hundreds of their citizens have been involved in jihadist activists. Many of them have been trained, fought and died in Syria.

In the case of Amsterdam, one Dutch citizen was even a suicide bomber.

The reports underscore the urgent need for Europe to respond to the changing and wide spread landscape of terror. These governments, as well as the rest of Europe, are trying to create responses which will protect their homes and home turf from the extremism that these jihadists will bring back with them from Syria.

The jihadists return home with battle and weapons experience and training. They are battle hardened and they are even more dedicated to the jihadist cause than they were before joining the fight in Syria.

France says that 700 of their citizens were involved in jihadist activities in 2013. The actual number is probably three times that.

Until now the only tools governments had been using involved intelligence collection. Now the French Ministry of the Interior has announced that they are working on a plan to stem this movement. And Amsterdam has announced that they are cooperating with other governments to try to create a response.

The best response to hate is education. But that is a long term solution.

In the short term Europe needs to breakup jihadist groups, arrest members of jihadists groups and clamp down on individual jihadists.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Next Iran Talks to Be in NYC

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
The official Iranian student news service reported on Sunday that the next set of nuclear talks will take place in New York City.

The news agency, called ISNA, quoted a senior negotiator saying that in May the Iranians will continue their discussions with Western powers on the sidelines of the UN Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty talks.

This is the first time since the talks began that negotiations will take place in New York City. It is a significant signal.

It means that all the parties to the negotiations have enough of a comfort level to agree to have the United States both host and to be a part of the talks.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Al Qaeda & the PA

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Ayman Zawahiri, head of al Qaeda, posted a general update of al Qaeda on Saturday. Part of the update dealt with the Abbas and the Palestinians.

Zawahiri refers to Palestinian leadership as traitors and cowards.
He says that they have given up on the land and on their people and want only to conform to US and Zionist demands.

The PA responded by posting a statement on their website asking since when has al Qaeda even cared about the Palestinians.

Ahmad Assaf, the Fatah spokesmen, took the PA response several steps further saying: "confirm the level of his and his organization's involvement in the Zionist project. Since when has this hypocrite and his gang been interested in the Palestinian issue and the Palestinian people? They see the whole world an open arena for their activities, but we didn't see even one activity against the Israeli occupation."

Did you catch the last line?

The Fatah spokesman is asking why there has been not even a single terror al Qaeda attack against Israel. He is saying, in essence, if you cared about the Palestinians then you would be attacking Israel and killing Israelis.

This is one of the most honest statements by Palestinian leadership that I have heard in a very long time. Palestinian leadership traditionally attempts to create the illusion of a desire for coexistence and a condemnation of terror. Here we see the opposite. The spokesman is saying --- If you really loved us, you would be killing Israelis.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Al Qaeda vs Al Qaeda

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

It is clear that Bashar Assad is there to stay, at least for the short term. It is also clear that the real battle now being waged in Syria is between al Qaeda and al Qaeda breakaway groups.

The most recent spat is being waged on the audio waves of the internet. Abu Mohammed al Adnani, spokesperson for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, the largest breakaway from al Qaeda posted a very angry and antagonistic internet audio message attacking the current leader of al Qaeda, Ayman Zawahiri.

Al Adnani let loose an ad hominem rant about how Zawahiri is betraying the cause of Islam and jihad and how he has deviated from the proper path.

In November of 2013, Zawahiri was so frustrated with this group that he officially disbanded them. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant responded by breaking away from al Qaeda claiming that they were the true jihadist group and declaring war on all others groups - especially al Nusra, now the official al Qaeda representative in Syria.

The battle about how best to conduct jihad continues. And the killing goes on.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Turkey to Ask Russia For a Favor

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

In foreign affairs and diplomacy nothing happens in isolation. A country's foreign affairs are, in many ways, akin to the game Settlers of Catan.

So as the situation begins to unravel with Russia, many other countries are stepping up, taking sides and taking advantage.

Imagine how interested I was to see that the deputy of the Russian natural gas company Gazprom was schedule to visit Turkey. And during the visit, Turkey intends on asking the Russians for a price reduction.
Russia/Gazprom is the major provider of natural gas for Turkey - and Turkey is dependent on imports for almost all of their energy.

Given today's political climate, Russia might be willing to reduce the price of gas in exchange for support in the international arena. If not support, at least silence.

For Turkey, it would seem to be a very small price to pay for cheaper natural gas.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Horrific - Jews Must Register in Russian East Ukraine

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Horrific!! Just Horrific!!

The Jews living in a province located in a section of Ukraine that is being contested by the Russians have been asked to register at the regional citizenship office. If they do not follow directions their citizenship will be revoked, they will be forced to leave Ukraine and all their property will be confiscated. They must also pay a $50 registration fee.

The province, or, Obalst in Ukranian, is called Donetsk. It is home to the largest industrial area in Ukraine and lies in the eastern part of the country, close to Russia. Donetsk has a population of 4.3 million which is about 10% of the total population of Ukraine.

Many ethnic Russians live in the province. And there are 17,000 Jews living in Donetsk.

On Passover armed masked men delivered leaflets demanding that the Jews register.
The leaflet read:

"Dear Ukraine citizens of Jewish nationality,
Due to the fact that the leaders of the Jewish community of Ukraine, because you supported Bendery Junta, and oppose the pro-Slavic People's Republic of Donetsk, (An historical allusion to WWII) has decided that all citizens of Jewish descent, over 16 years of age and residing within the republic's territory are required to report to the Commissioner for Nationalities in the Donetsk Regional Administration building and register.
ID and passport are required to register your Jewish religion, religious documents of family members, as well as documents establishing the rights to all real estate property that belongs to you, including vehicles.
Evasion of registration will result in citizenship revoke and you will be forced outside the country with a confiscation of property."

Who would have imagined that this would happen in the year 2014.

Micah@MicahHalpern,com 

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Egypt Elections May 26-27

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

On May 26th and 27th Egypt is scheduled to have democratic elections.

Last July Egypt ousted their democratically elected president, Mohammed Morsi, a leader of the Muslim
Brotherhood party. Since then an interim government has been in place. That temporary government was supported by the military. And it was the military, together with public outrage at the Muslim Brotherhood, which ousted Morsi.

Now the former leader of that military, Abdel-Fatteh al-Sissi, has collected the 25,000 signatures necessary to run for president in the May elections.

We have always assumed that al-Sissi will run and that he would be a shoe in. But nothing is certain until it happens - and in the Middle East nothing is certain until the dust settles which can take a good few weeks.
Elections in Egypt are five weeks away and campaigning has yet to really begin.

We hope for a fair election and that whoever the winner is will propel Egypt towards a future that is more stable and free.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Iran Drills on Iraqi Border

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian media has been reporting on two very interesting pieces of information.

The first is that Iran has called off the move to position part of their naval fleet in the Atlantic. The decision was made because, at this point, they need to keep their ships closer to home.

The second is that the Iranian border patrol has embarked on a four day exercise involving drones, balloons, armored vehicles and 4,000 border guards. The drill will take place along the Iraqi border, covering five Iranian provinces.

Aside from the obvious need for preparedness, this drill is sending a direct message to Iraqi militia groups and smugglers warning them not to cross into Iran.

Iran is warning Iraqi leadership to make certain that their side of the border is secure. Or else!

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Al Qaeda Threatens Entire MidEast

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

I was pleased to see that Egypt arrested Wael Ahmed Abdel Fattah on terror charges and charges of being affiliated with a terror organization.

Abdel Fattah, who worked for an oil company, went to Syria and fought alongside the al Qaeda affiliated group al Nusra in their battle to oust Syrian President Assad. Al Nusra is also locked in a bitter struggle against other rebel groups in Syria.

The natural outgrowth of an al Qaeda fighting force in Syria is to pop up, to sprout, to infiltrate surrounding countries. And now these al Qaeda groups have new, well trained fighters with battle experience.

Another outgrowth of al Qaeda groups fighting in Syria is the realization that even those leaders who supported ousting Assad - like the Egyptians, have now been turned into the targets of the rebels groups they were supporting in Syria.

The complexity and multi-layered underpinnings of the war in Syria are only now beginning to be understood by the world. The repercussions will be felt for a long time.

The Middle East is an extremely complicated region. And yet, for decades, world leaders chose to describe it in the most simple of terms. Now they must face the truth - the Middle East no longer fits the simple narrative they imposed upon it.

Al Qaeda is setting their sights on every single country in the Middle East. And after that, they intend to conquer the West.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Syrian Update

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Syria has been on the back burner for most media outlets these past few weeks. Yet, there are still important developments that warrant our attention.

The process of the disposal of non-conventional weapons by Syria had come to a halt, but is now back on track.
And Assad has continued to solidify control over more and more of Syria.

Most importantly, rebel forces continue to fight one another more than they are fighting Assad. Over the past 36 hours 68 rebels have been killed by other rebels. The fighting is taking place in the area around Bukamal which is situated in Eastern Syria, near to the border with Iraq. Bukamal just happens to be the site of Syria's rich oil reserves.

The conflicts are between an al Qaeda breakaway called the Islamic State of Iraq and between the Levant and an al Qaeda affiliate called Al Nusra. There were times when the forces worked together, but for the past 18 months they have been viscously battling each of over.

They are battling over the question of who has the greater faith.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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If Deal Goes Thru Bibi Might Fall

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Rumors abound about a deal that will put the Israeli /Palestinian peace talks back on track. But not all concerned parties are in favor.

The deal, according to Al Arabiya, a usually reliable media source, goes like this: Israel agrees to free more prisoners and temporarily freeze construction; Palestinians extend the April 29th talk deadline and stop all UN advances for membership; the United States frees Jonathan Pollard.

All is fine - except. Except that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition might just fall apart.

Coalition member Naftali Bennett of Bayit Yehudi (The Jewish Home Party) said in response to the deal: "If any proposal freeing Israeli murderers is put before the government, the Bayit Yehudi will object, and if it will pass - the Bayit Yehudi will leave the government which frees murderers with Israeli citizenship. Enough is enough."

Bennett continued: "I hope to see Pollard freed from prison soon, but not through immoral deals like the one currently being proposed."

Bennett has 12 of the 68 seats in the Netanyahu coalition. A coalition requires 60 seats out of 120 members of Knesset. If Bennett and his party pull out, the government falls. When the government fails, Bibi Netanyahu is out.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Israel Launches Satellite

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, Israel launched another advanced satellite into space.

This Israeli satellite is named OFEK 10.

The new satellite joins OFEK 9, which is already in orbit.

Each OFEK satellite takes 90 minutes to circle the globe. The satellites are evenly spaced and now, every 45 minutes, Israel has real time pictures of what is happening.

This addition to Israel's satellite system brings with it significant improvement to Israel's security. Now Israel can better monitor what is happening in places of concern. They can, for example, watch and see in real time if Iran is moving missiles and if so, where.

Israel was the seventh country in the world to launch satellites.

Today that club is still very small. Only twelve countries possess the satellite technology. They are: United States, Russia, China, France, Italy, Britain, India, South Korea, Japan, Ukraine, and Iran and Israel.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Peres to China

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli President Shimon Peres is on an official three day offical visit to China. Peres is the first Israeli Presidential visit to China in ten years.

Yesterday Peres met with Chinese President Xi Jinping yesterday. Their meeting lasted two hours.

There is no doubt that the two presidents spoke about Iran's nuclear technology and the threat it poses to Israel, the region and the world. They also spoke about Palestinian / Israeli negotiation and probably about Syria.

It appears that Peres was moderately successful in convincing his Chinese counterpart of the dangers Iran poses. But never the less, Xi Jinping stressed that China is in favor of talks and negotiations with Iran.

With that, Peres tried to make sure that China will help make certain that, in the course of negotiations, Iran does not quietly slip into a position in which they actually do have nuclear weapons.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Palestinians Say They have Given Too Much

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

As talks between Israelis and Palestinians wane and as US Secretary of State John Kerry and his associates scamper around trying to inject some sense of life into the negotiations, the Palestinians have called a meeting of the Arab League.

The Palestinian Authority will ask the Arab League for political and financial support. They will, of course, get the necessary votes for the money - but that does not mean that they will actually get the money.
Promises made by the Arab League are notorious for being fulfilled in small, slow notoriously trickles and they almost never pay in full.

Palestinian pundits and talking heads are busy explaining away their current strategy and the decision to run and join UN agencies and sign on to international treaties.

One standard argument is that Palestinians cannot be expected to give up any more. They have already given up 82% of historic Palestine and their new state will only be on 12% of the land.

Here is where they are so wrong: Historic Palestine is way more than the land Israel is situated on. The Palestinians are referring to Israel as if to say that all of Israel was once theirs and they are giving all that up and accepting only a measly 12%. In reality, historic Palestine was Trans-Jordan which is far larger than the State of Israel as it exists today.

While I do not believe that the Palestinians should go to Jordan, I do think that it is essential to realize that their dream is not historical. History and all pretense of history aside, the fact is that the Palestinians want the land on which Israel, the Jewish State, is situated.

History mitigates the Palestinian rather than strengthening the claim.

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PA Will Turn to Russia

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The US and Israel still feel the after effects of the trouncing they took at the hands of the Palestinians last week.

And now, as I have been predicting for the past two years, the Palestinians have another card up their sleeve - a card that neither the US nor Israel ever took seriously.
Russia.

After the events involving Ukraine and Crimea, after the role Russia played in Syria, the Palestinians have the perfect entree to go and request that Russia be their mediator in talks with Israel.

There have been game changing events in the Middle East over the past few years and Russia has been vying for more influence in the region. Now they have the perfect opportunity. And the best part of it all is that the Russians can, once again, show the world not only how the United States has failed but also how they can be counted on for the win.

Of course it will happen just as the Palestinians want. Israel will be forced into a discussion with the Palestinians and the third party will be Putin. In the best of all worlds the United States will remain a part of the discussion - even if only as a fourth wheel.

If I were advising Abbas and the Palestinians that is exactly what I would suggest. Invite the Russians to join the table. And watch out for sharp knives.

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Iran & Pakistan Enage in War Games

I've Been Thinking:

Non-Western news agencies are filled with the story of Iran and Pakistan and their naval maneuvers in the Straits of Hormuz.

The Chinese press is all over the story.

In the West few people will know what story I am talking about - but they should. So here it is:
On Saturday a flotilla of Pakistani naval ships docked in Bandar Abbas in advance of a four-day joint exercise with Iran. According to the Tehran Times the ships included a missile launching warship, a supply ship and an advanced submarine.

The obvious reason for the drills is to advance military cooperation between the two countries. There will also be meetings between the leaders of both navies.

The untold agenda is far more significant.

Iran and Pakistan are proclaiming to the West that they are hardly pariahs. They are saying that there are real and substantial relationships between them and that they will stand by one another in the case of political or military attack. They are making the point that the "international isolation" of Iran is not working.

They are reprimanding the West. Iran and Pakistan are saying that a byproduct of the serious talks between Iran and the West concerning

Iran's nuclear technology is to make "international inclusion" the more operative status.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Blow Back on the Palestinians

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and the United States are evaluating responses to the recent and very bold initiative taken by the Palestinians to join the United Nations via its agencies and treaties.

The obvious counter response by the United States is to withhold nearly $1 billion in funding.
Israel has many more options. They can decide not to hand over import taxes collected at Israeli ports for Palestinian products.

They can make traveling from area to area on the West Bank very difficult. Or they can grind the current political model to the ground.

Most importantly, Israel had the ability to withdraw its protection of Abbas and the Palestinian Authority. Israel has made a concerted effort to squelch Hamas and other anti-PA activity in the West bank as a way of currying favor with Abbas, their peace partner and with his Palestinian Authority.

Israel can, easily and indirectly, cause the ousting of Abbas and his entire regime. It is a response that is being considered over all other responses right now.

The down side of implementing that plan is best articulated by the famous quote from Machiavelli: "the enemy you know is better than the enemy that you don't."

In this case, Israel knows both Hamas and Abbas and it is not going to be an easy decision.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Cyber Attack on Israel

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Israel has announced a cyber alert for all government and national websites.

The alert is in effect from Friday through Monday. There will be only limited international access. Upgrades and maintenance are postponed. Almost all government financial transactions with outside vendors will be pushed off until after Monday.

Israel has received intelligence that over the next few days there will be a cyber attack against their computer systems. The attack will emanate from pro-Palestinian hackers around the world.

The hackers hope to ride the wave of the huge diplomatic success Palestinians have had over the past week.
The Palestinians have left both the Israelis and the United States flat footed as they push hard to expand their independence - not just their statehood.

Palestinian supporters are urging Palestinian leadership to step out with swag and style. They are saying you took charge of the negotiations and put your diplomatic foot down.

In truth, Palestinian leadership is acting to meet short term interests and rubbing the noses of the US and Israel in their new found power and prowess. Their people and their supporters, who assumed that the leadership did not have the gonads for any of this, are elated.

This new support has propelled the popularity of PA leadership over that of Hamas leadership. They should enjoy the revelry and euphoria now. It will soon come to an end. Long term interests trump short term victories.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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DC Upset by the Palestinians

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The White House is livid, Congress even more so. They are furious with the Palestinians.

It is not like Washington to be unified in their frustrations with the Palestinians. As a whole, the Palestinians usually get the benefit of the doubt and are seldom called to task for their mistakes or deliberate jabs against the United States.

This time is different.

Calling off talks with Israel and starting a full-court press for UN recognition through the 60 or so treaties and UN-affiliated organizations is a violation of the very deal the United States has been working so hard to achieve. The worst part of it all is that the Palestinians are proceeding a month before the deadline.

Congress is investigating ways to cut off funding to the Palestinian Authority. The White House has not yet figured out how to respond.

The Palestinians response is that they were given no choice, that they had to act, that this was their only move.

In politics, there is seldom simply one move. And unilateral moves always result in strong responses. Now we watch and see how the United States responds.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Fast Changes in Mid East

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Changes are emerging so quickly, it is hard to keep it all straight.

Israeli / Palestinian / US interaction was stalled. In order to jumpstart a discussion so many different proposals have been put forth that it is impossible to figure out which are realistic and what may actually take hold.

There is no way of knowing what is actually being suggested, but leaks and travel schedules can be extremely telling. For instance, when the US secretary of state makes an unscheduled trip to region, then promises to return the next day, then cancels that trip, something is happening.

When the president of the Palestinian Authority promises to not go to the United Nation and ask for full membership in its committees and then he begins the process of filling out the paperwork, something is happening. We know something is happening even when the US secretary of state says it is not so.

When each side has completely different talking points about the status of almost every item they are supposed to be negotiating about, we know there is a problem.

This is a sign of the futility of the venture - at least for the moment.

April 29th is the actual deadline for the negotiations. From the behaviors of the parties, one would think that the deadline was March 29th.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Pollard is US Ace in the Hole

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

A few weeks ago I wrote about murmurings emanating from the White House suggesting that freedom for Jonathan Pollard would be dangled in front of the Israelis as a means of luring them into making difficult concessions to the Palestinians.

Now clearly articulated voices are even tossing around dates for his release. I have heard that if it happens, it will happen before Passover which takes place in two weeks - on April 14.

Spokespeople in the State Department and the White House have no comment on whether this is a real or fantasy proposal.

Meanwhile, the Palestinians have threatened to launch full scale bid for recognition in all UN agencies if Israel does not release the third and final set of prisoners originally scheduled to be released this past Sunday.
When US Secretary of State John Kerry made an unscheduled trip to the region yesterday he was slapped with this Palestinian ultimatum.

So in order to mollify the Israelis, the Obama administration might play the Pollard card. No US presidential administration has come this close to freeing Pollard who was arrested on November 21, 1985 and convicted in 1987.

The problem is that the United States holds very few cards - and even fewer aces, when it comes to enticing Israel. The one ace is Jonathan Pollard. As it now stands, it is not even clear that the Palestinians are ready for a peace deal. And if that is the case, it would be a waste for the United States to play their ace right now.


Micah@MicahHalpern.com

Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
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