Iran India Agreement

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Several days ago India and Iran signed a groundbreaking set of agreements. 12 sets of agreements in all.

They agreed to fight terror, radicalism, drug trafficking, cyber terror and other societal ills. They agreed to share intelligence and to work together.
The agreements were signed in Teheran by Iranian Prime Minister Rouhani and Indian Prime Minister Modi.

The jewel in the crown of the agreements was that India and Iran will mutually develop Chabahar port. Chabahar is located in the south of Iran outside the Persian Gulf. It is to the West of India and it is very important for them. The Indians are investing $500 million in the port - and it will be a significant conduit for them in the region.

India hopes that this will be the start of "bi" and "tri" level transit. If it all works out, the third party to this part of the agreement will be Afghanistan.

This new deal shows just how eager countries are to get Iran back up and moving forward. This deal with India illustrates how Iran can easily become a major player not just in the region, but also in Asia.

And that is a significant part of Iran's long term goal.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Oil Near $50/Barrel

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The price of oil is almost $50 a barrel. The price has continued to creep up even thought Canadian Suncor Energy oil-sands project is about to hit the market.

In addition OPEC will be meeting on Thursday and they will certainly be discussing the issue of supply.

The price of oil continues to slowly climb and that has important ramifications - and not just for our pocketbooks. If oil continues to climb beyond $50 and goes to $70 or $75, it will empower Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Iran and Saudi Arabia both suffered when oil prices dropped. Saudi Arabia lost power and influence. Iran nearly went bankrupt.

The tide is turning once again - and that is not good news for the West. Oil is the tool that greases the wheels of power and influence in large parts of the world.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Turkey Livid with US

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Turkish President Erdogan is livid with the United States. He is angry after viewing pictures of US Special forces wearing Kurdish insignias while training YPG and PYD Kurdish groups in Syria.

Erdogan said that this was a violation of the agreements that the US and Turkey had made.

The US Defense department acknowledge that it was a mistake and the issue is now being corrected and dealt with. The official word was that the forces on the ground should not have been wearing the insignias.

Obviously there is a tightrope here. The Turks want to destroy the Kurds. And the Turks will do anything and everything to prevent the Kurds from getting an independent territory. They have used the ISIS conflict to inflict serious damage on he Kurds - killing about 5,000 of them,

But the US needs real fighters on the ground - reliable and dedicated fighters to fight ISIS. The only group that meets those qualifications is the Kurds. So the US will continue support the Kurds and that upsets Turkey.

Kurds will not risk their lives and families simply to fight for either Iraq or Syria. The Kurds need to know that they are working toward their goal of territorial independence.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Muslims Attack Christians in Egypt

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The Christian population in Egypt constitutes a large minority, numbering about 10 million people which puts them at 10% of the entire population. And yet, Egypt's Christians live in fear.

Christians living in Egypt are Coptic Christians.

In a village south of Cairo, seven Christian homes were recently burned and an elderly, 70 year of
Christian mother, was stripped, beaten and dragged through the streets.

The woman's son, a Christian, was the real target of the attack. The son managed to escape as the mob shot thousands of bullets into the air. The attackers were so angry at not being able to find the son, that they grabbed the mother and attacked her. They also burned and looted neighboring homes.

Police arrived two hours after the attack. They arrested six people and are looking for twelve others. According to witnesses the angry crowd was as large as 300 people all shouting in unison "Death to the Infidel." President el-Sisi has condemned the act of violence.

Rumors had spread that the son was involved with a Muslim woman - a practice that is shunned in Egypt. And the son actually called the police the day before the attack issuing a complaint about threats that he was receiving.

The Christian community feels threatened. This is just one of many examples.

It should be noted that had it been a Muslim man and a Christian woman - there would have been no reaction from the Muslims.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Hacking Middle East Banks

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Middle East banks are now the targets of a massive hack. This hack is happening only one month after the largest bank in the Middle East - the Qatar National Bank (QNB), was hacker and 1.4GB of data was stolen.

That hack was traced to a Turkish hacker group which eventually did take responsibility for the hack on YouTube.

This new set of hacks is different from previous hacks. Those responsible are not taking anything, they are just searching for things. The new hack is not for exploitation, it is just for reconnaissance.
And that leaves analysts asking a lot of questions.

In this latest hack emails were sent to people in the banks as if they were from co-workers. When the emails were opened, downloaded and forwarded the infection went with them.

It is not clear how many banks have been hacked... but it is safe to say that many more than a handful fell victim to this new cyber attack. More than one and less than 50.

The looming question is, who stands to gain from the knowledge that was gained. I have a few ideas.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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New Head of Iran's Powerful Assmebly of Elders

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Ayatollah Amhed Jannati was elected to be head of the Assembly of Elders in Iran. This is one of the most powerful positions in Iran - it is the Assembly of Elders who select and support the Supreme Leader.

Jannati is an extreme ultra conservative. He won hands down receiving 55 votes in the internal election cast by the 88 members of the Assembly of Elders.

Here are some examples of Ayatollah Ahmed Jannati's attitudes:

In April 2008, Jannati said: "You cried: 'Death to the Shah,' and indeed, he died. You cried: 'Death to Israel,' and it is now on its deathbed. You cry: 'Death to America,' and before long, Allah willing, the prayer for the dead will be recited over it."

And on 17 September 2010, he claimed that "opinion polls reveal[ed] that 84 percent of the Americans consider the US administration responsible for 9/11 attacks."

This is a national leader in Iran who has been in central positions since the revolution in 1979. He is the overwhelming voice in the most powerful body in Iran.

This is hardly a liberal and open Iran.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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PA Museum is Sad

By Micah Halpern

I've Been thinking:

The Palestinians opened a museum of Palestinian history and culture in Ramallah last week- and it was empty of exhibits. That is both funny and tragic at the same time.

It is also an unbelievable metaphor. A $28 million dollar building that took decades to create was opened to huge fanfare - and there were no exhibits inside.

They said that people will come anyway, just to see the gardens - which are not completed. They admit that the leadership of the museum was in conflict and could not decide what type of direction the museum should take - so it took no direction.

Palestinian leaders opened a satellite museum in Beirut, Lebanon the same week which focused on Palestinian embroidery. The theme of that exhibit is that embroidery is a significant part of Palestinian culture. The hope is to open other satellite museums around the
world in the next year.

The entire idea has been a mess. This is the biggest single project the Palestinian Authority has embarked upon and it is a colossal failure in almost every way - especially in its symbolism and the message it is conveying to the Palestinian people.

For instance, there is no shortage of Palestinian architects, but a Dublin firm was commissioned to design and build the museum. And the heralded gardens are landscaped by a Jordanian firm. Even the director is not a Palestinian - he was hired under the pretense that he was the head curator at the renowned British Museum - but now it has been disclosed that he is not a curator at all, just a visiting scholar.

You can't make this stuff up.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Building in Saudi Arabia Drops 51%

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Building in Saudi Arabia has dropped 51% compared to last year at this time.

The drop is due to low oil prices.

Saudi Arabia has scaled back on all their building. The building that is going on is the result of contracts that are already signed and buildings in the midst of being built. Most are in the tourism and business areas.

Tens of thousands of jobs have been eliminated and many foreign workers have left the kingdom.

The cost of the war in Yemen in which the Saudis are supporting a regime against an Iranian insurgence is also tapping the Kingdom's reserves. Add to that the enormous cost of supporting the movement against Syrian leader Assad while Iran is propping him up.

Despite being the second largest exporter of oil in the world, Saudis are hemorrhaging money and no longer making what they once made. They are in trouble.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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ISIS Vid Calls For Small Attacks

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
A new ISIS video has been posted by Abu Mohammed al-Adnani, the spokesman of ISIS. He is calling on followers to strike at as many targets as possible during the Muslim month of Ramadan.

The nearly 30 minute long message was very explicit - calling on ISIS supporters to advance the cause everywhere they live.

Ramadan is a month long Muslim fast dedicated to introspection. It begins, for most Muslims, on June 6th and ends on July 5th. Muslims fast during the day and eat at night, after sundown.

Al-Adnani said: "Ramadan is coming, the month of attacks and jihad, the month of conquest so be prepared and be on alert, and make sure that everyone of you spends it (Ramadan) in the name of God on the attack. Requesting from God that it (Ramadan), God willing, be a month of calamity on the non-believers anywhere, especially by those soldiers and supporters of the caliphate in Europe and America."

"The smallest action you do in their heartland is better and more enduring to us than what you would if you were with us. If one of you hoped to reach the Islamic State, we wish we were in your place to punish the Crusaders day and night."

These comments are a call to arms for followers and lone wolves to do whatever they can, however they can, wherever they live.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Let Saudis Sel Their US Interests

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia has threatened to pull out their US investments and sell their ownership of US companies if the United States permits 9-11 victims to sue the Gulf oil state.

This is a serious threat and people are rightfully taking it seriously.

And yet, it is also an empty threat and would prove to be a silly move.

Saudi Arabian interests in the United States total about $750 billion. Selling all that, over a period as short as a few months, will cause be a huge loss to the Saudis. Actually, good estimates say that if the Saudis sell their US assets, they will take more than a 50% loss on the sell. That would mean $750 billion will melt away and be reduced to something just over $300 billion. That is a huge loss - and a colossal failure.

The Saudi own $117 billion in US treasury bonds. Even if they liquidate all the bonds overnight, it will not have a huge impact. The daily treasury market is about $500 billion. China sold off their bonds in order to raise cash and it did not impact the market.

If Saudi Arabia did choose to try to sell their interests, there would be a long line of interested people excited about picking up those investments at a price way below market value. Many of those new buyers may actually be Americans.

If the Saudi follow through with their plan, it will backfire and the result may actually be better for the United States.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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BIBI Stabilizes His Gov

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The government of Bibi Netanyahu just got stronger and more stable.

Lieberman and his party of six have just agreed to join the Netanyahu coalition. That decision will further guarantee Netanyahu's positions and power.

In joining the coalition Lieberman will become the defense minister and his party will receive several other governmental positions.

The additional six Knesset seats give Netanyahu a total of 67 seats - seven more than the majority he needs to hang on as prime minister.

The dynamics of this new expanded coalition pushes the Netanyahu government further to the right, but it also insulates the prime minister from any harm the two religious parties in his coalition can do to him - he can now survive if either of those parties leaves, he has the votes.

Netanyahu was not only negotiating with Lieberman, he was also negotiating with Labor. And they almost succeeded in joining a coalition. But, as they say, almost doesn't count.

Labor has 24 Knesset seats. Had they joined with Netanyahu they would have received the foreign ministry portfolio. That move have put Netanyahu in the center left position and stabilized him even more with 85 seats.

And if both would have joined the coalition that would have made it 91 seats.

Some things, it seems, are just not meant to be.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Pope Tell West Stop Cultural Colonialism

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
The Pope has taken Western countries to task about, as he calls it, their cultural colonialism. He is speaking especially about the United States.

The Pope has been very critical of the desire of Western countries to impose democracy on others, without relating to or concerning itself with local cultures.

In an interview with the French Catholic paper La Croix, the Pope said: "Faced with current Islamist terrorism, we should question the way a model of democracy that was too Western was exported to countries where there was a strong power, as in Iraq, or Libya, where there was a tribal structure."
"We cannot advance without taking these cultures into account. As a Libyan said some time ago: 'We used to have one Gaddafi, now we have 50 of them!'"

The Pope is not anti-democracy. He is simply suggesting that respect for local culture will more effectively achieve the end results of democracy without creating a buildup of resentment.
On Islam, the Pope said that he does not think that Europe or the West is anti-Israel. Rather, they are anti-ISIS. There is a huge difference.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Jordan Won't Let Gazans In

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
The Arab world has a very harsh approach to towards Palestinians.

Since last summer Jordan has not permitted Palestinians from Gaza to pass through Jordan. For the past several years Egypt has not permitted the movement of Gazans.

The most ironic element of the story is that while Israel is permitting more and more Palestinians exit and transport over Israel, they can't leave because they have no place to go. Jordan will not let them in. Because of Jordan, Gazans are stuck in Gaza.

The reasons should be obvious. Gazans are thought to be terrorists and affiliated with Hamas.

Gazans who are attempting to go to work, to the hospital, to the university, cannot go even when the destination is Jordan. A Jordanian university may accept a student from Gaza, but that same student will not be able to attend the university because of the Jordanian law.

This is a problem. It is not a problem caused by Israel.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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They Mourn Israel's Creation

By Micah Halpern

 

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, May 15, the Palestinians commemorated Israel's 1948 creation in what they called the catastrophe, or, the Nakba. It is a yearly tradition.

They mourned the creation of the State of Israel which took place 68 years ago. In Palestinian eyes, Israel's creation was their destruction.

In Palestinian cities and villages throughout the West Bank a siren rang for 68 seconds. One second for every year of Israel.

Palestinians stood still in mourning, mimicking the siren that Israel sounds for Holocaust Memorial Day and for the day that memorializes Israel's fallen soldier heroes and victims of terror.

They created a model train out of cardboard, put it on wheels and had it run from Dheisha, a refugee camp just south of Bethlehem, to Rachel's tomb in northern Bethlehem.

It was an effective use of a near life size model train which they called "The Train of Return." Only one or two people were on the train but they used large model keys symbolizing the keys to their family homes that they still hang on to and hand down to younger generations. The idea is to use these keys to return home.

Of course there were riots.

The creation of Israel displaced many people - including millions of Jews across the Arab world who had to escape the Arab world and run to Israel for refuge.

Palestinians tell just part of the story. Yes, Arabs living in Israel left their homes. But one of the major forces telling them to leave was Arab leadership which told them to clear out while they destroyed the Jews and forced them into the sea.

The saddest part about the Nakba is that it places all the blame on Israel. It does not consider the Arab role. Israel won the war - that was not part of their consideration at the time. That was a tragedy.

The other tragedy is the incongruity - this day bemoans the creation of Israel in 1948. It does not focus on the territories. Dhesisha and Bethlehem and the entire West Bank were part of Jordan after 1948, all the way up until 1967.

Palestinian sadness is real. But Israel is only partially responsible. Only after they realize this will there be a possibility of living together. Otherwise, Palestinians will continue to wish and work for the disappearance and destruction of Israel.

And that is not going to happen.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Ex Syrian General Wants Peace w Israel

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

An ex-Syrian brigadier general named Nabir al Dandal recently sent a letter to Yuli Edelstein, speaker of the Israeli Knesset.

Al Dandal said that the Syrians want and need peace with Israel. They want it now more than ever.
The letter was sent through academic researchers.

In a phone interview with Ynet, a leading internet source of Israeli news, al Dandal said: "When I was a part of the regime, I was convinced that former President Hafez Al-Assad missed an opportunity to make peace like former Egyptian President Anwar Al-Sadat. But when you serve the regime, you need to say what it wants (you to say) and not what you really think."

Al Dandal expressed his frustration that Israel has not supported the Syrian resistance against Assad.
"Israel has an opportunity to make peace with the Syrian people, who now, since the revolution against al-Assad, have made sense of many things including the lie that the regime is selling regarding its resistance to Israel."

The ex-general and former high level Assad government leader made it clear that he wants real peace - as do the people of Syria.

"Indeed, those who believed and those who were Jews or Christians or Sabeans - those (among them) who believed in Allah and the Last Day and did righteousness - will have their reward with their Lord, and no fear will there be concerning them, nor will they grieve."

Al Dandal also said that: "The Syrian people want to emphasize to the Israeli people that it wants to separate itself from wars and that it is ready to take the necessary steps to build the infrastructure for religious coexistence in the homeland of Moses and Jesus."

This is very important. It shows a real opening in dialogue between Israelis and Syrians. It shows potential. Al Danadal, who says he is not just a one man voice but rather the voice of many people is bemoaning the fact that there was no diplomatic movement to normalize relations with Syria as there was with Egypt - and he is hoping that that normalization can still be brought into play.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Tensions Rise Btw Iran & Saudis

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia just got worse. Of course - like always, it is all about the Shiite Sunni conflict.

In this latest chapter of the conflict, Iranians will not be able to attend the Haj in January. Iran blames Saudi Arabia for not being able to work out the details so that, like all religious Muslims, Iranians pilgrims can make the religious trek to Mecca.

Last year during the Haj over 2000 people were trampled to death. 464 of the dead were Iranian.
Also this year, Saudi Arabia cut off diplomatic relations with Iran.
It happened in January after Iran burned and attacked the Saudi Embassy in Teheran after the Saudis executed a Shiite religious leader.

These tensions make normalization very difficult. The two states are not allies. They are rivals for the leadership of the Islamic world. There is no way to make their interaction less contentious.

It all goes to prove, once again, that the internal conflicts of the Middle East are rooted in divisions that have nothing to do with Israel. And these tensions are not likely to be resolved.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Israel Strikes Oil

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
They struck oil in Israel. You know ... black gold, Texas tea.

Oil not gas.

Gas has been in the news a lot lately, mostly due to the huge reserves discovered and now being tapped in the Mediterranean Sea.

But now we're talking about oil. A group of companies have partnered together in order to pump the new found oil.

The oil was found near the Dead Sea in a place called Marimur. It was discovered by the same group that first discovered oil in Halamish in 1995 and is located very nearby.

Ever since 1995 there was believed to be a small but significant oil reserve at that spot. At the time, the low price of oil helped the owners' investors make the decision not to drill.
But now, despite the low price of oil, things might be different.

This is very big news.

It will not make Israel a large oil producer or even exporter--- but it will put her on the oil producing map.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Terror Attack in Munich

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
He shouted Alahu Akbar-- Allah is Great in Arabic - as he stabbed four people on a train platform 20 miles east of Munich in Germany.

One of those stabbed died from his wounds. It all took place just before 5 AM as people were commuting to work early on Tuesday morning.

It is hard not to call this Islamic terror. And yet, people are calling the terrorist crazy or psychotic deranged. They say he was talking drivel when apprehended by the police.

People are making excuses for this act of terror.

Europeans are looking for reasons. Was this man brainwashed or encouraged by a radical Islamic group? Was he a member? They will search his computer to see if he was part of the now infamous, loosely linked, cyber community that supports ISIS. A community you do not join or sign up for - all you do is click on and watch, read and write about radical Islam.

It does not matter if the terrorist was officially part of an established organization. The current hi tech world of ISIS stimulates lone wolves and very small units to act on their own.

If he was just a kook, he would not have been shouting Allah is Great as he stabbed people. People who stab other people and shout out Alahu Akbar are Muslim terrorists.

Period, end.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Math Prof Thought to be Terrorists b/c of Math

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Imagine you were doing a complicated differential equation while sitting on a plane. You scribble away and your seat mate thinks you are plotting in Arabic and planning a terror attack.

Well, that is exactly what happened on an American Airlines flight flying from Philadelphia to Syracuse.

The person doing the math was a world renowned math professor from the University of Pennsylvania who on his way to give a lecture on math. His name is Guido Menzio and he is originally from Italy. Was he surprised.

The humor cannot be lost. The person who reported the "math attack" asked to get off the plane claiming that she was ill. But once she deplaned, she said the real reason was her seatmate's scribbles.

What is shocking is that this entire non-incident could not be dealt with quickly and dismissed. Instead, the flight was delayed two hours.

This is a no brainer. Actually, all you need to do is use your brain and you would know that this was not a terror threat.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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ISIS Attacks Cairo - Kills 8 Police

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS attacked and killed 8 Egyptian police in Cairo yesterday.

The ISIS terrorists attacked a minibus filled with police, including an officer. They killed everyone inside the vehicle and stole their weapons before running off.

ISIS has claimed responsibility.

ISIS has long been active in the Sinai and now they have expanded to the northern Sinai. While they have attacked in the cities several times before, it has not been a regular occurrence. Their style in cities until now has been small attacks or explosions - not massive attacks against large numbers of police. This attack is a watershed event.

Over the past few months Egypt has been clamping down on the expansion of extremists, especially trying to stop ISIS. Egyptian fears are real and not imagined. They walk a very thin line when it comes to cracking down on freedoms and Egypt's extremists are using those freedoms to organize and to popularize their particular points of view.

Egypt understands the potential risks.

Yesterday's ISIS attack in Cairo - and not in the Sinai, proves just how important it is to keep the pressure up against ISIS.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Muslim Mayor of London Not An AntiSemite

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Sadiq Khan assumed his new job as mayor of London Saturday. Khan is a Muslim, his parents and grandparents came to England from Pakistan just before he was born. Khan's election was filled with tension.

On Sunday his first full day in office in his first official act, Khan, went to the National Holocaust commemoration in London.

This was a very important gesture for unity and it dispelled any feeling that people might have that Khan holds the same feeling towards Jews as does Ken Livingston, a former Labour party London mayor who was removed from the Labour party for making statements comparing Israel and Hitler. (Actually, on Sunday, Livingston said that it would have been better had Israel not been created.)

In a previous position, Khan headed Ed Miliband's successful election team and that thrust him into politics. It should e noted that Miliband and his twin brother, both important British political Labour leaders, come from and continue to be active and proud Jews.

While Khan is undeniably Muslim, it is clear that he does not toe the Muslim line. There was even a fatwa (a religious edict) pronounced against him because of his support of same sex marriage.

Britain's Labour pary has its fair share of anti-Semites. And they are getting more and more obnoxious. But I do not see Khan as one of them. Actually, I would guess that a trip to Israel is the works -- even by the end of this summer.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Hamas Needs to Decide

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad are shooting mortars from Gaza into Israel.

The mortar attacks are a direct result of Israel's discovery of another underground terror tunnel.

The logic works like this: Israel is searching for tunnels and Hamas is shooting at them to slow the search process down.

It is clear that Hamas and Israel do not want the situation to escalate into a war. But Hamas has a serious question to answer.

Because Israel is searching and has found two tunnels within ten days, Hamas is in danger of losing one of its most effective weapons.

Should Hamas abandon the weapon, or will they use it as they can in order to attack Israel before they lose it totally.

The reason Hamas does not want this to escalate is because they are not prepared for an all out conflict similar to the conflict of two summers ago. So Hamas is taking the middle position. They are hitting Israel and hoping not to escalate.

Israel struck back with their air force. Thus far this is not a significant change in the status quo. But it is a balancing act.

Hamas is counting on knowing the proper calculus - one that will not break the paradigm. If Hamas pushes too hard, it could force Israel's hand. And Hamas fully understands that.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Iran Threatens to Close Hormuz

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Rhetoric between Iran and the US is ratcheting higher.

On Monday the Iranian Supreme Leader called attention to US naval activity in the Straits of Hormuz. He reminded the world that Iran controls the Straits and the United States is permitted there only by Iranian largesse.

And yesterday, the deputy head of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard announced on Iranian national television that if the United States continues it aggression against Iran --- Iran will close the Straits to the US and her allies.

Them's fighting words.

One third of the world's oil passes through the Straits every day.

I cannot determine if this rhetoric is the onset of new tensions between the United States and Iran or if it is a revival of old tensions.

What I can say is that Iran is speaking very boldly.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Rouhani is a Reformer

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

President Rouhani of Iran spoke about reforming Iranian society while at the International Book Fair in Teheran.

Rouhani said that people who criticize the government should not be arrested. He said "critics should not be detained, critics should not be sent to jail."

This has been Rouhani's platform since his election in 2013. Rouhani leads and represents the reformists in Iran. He believes that Iranian law has gone too far in limiting the freedoms of expression.

The February elections and the run-off elections for the parliament showed that Iran's reformists have a powerful groundswell and have a serious plurality that cannot be ignored. The fact that their leader is also the president adds credibility to their cause and their numbers will continue to grow.

And yet, it is essential to understand that change in Iran can only happen with the blessing of the Grand Ayatollah also known as the Supreme Leader.

The Grand Ayatollah has been touched by this reform movement. That is the reason he tapped Rouhani in the first place. But the Ayatollah is uncertain about what this all means and he has not implemented any significant changes in Iran.

Iran's parliamentary election is the most important vehicle the country has with which to inform The Supreme Leader of the true voice of the people.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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US Cyber Warriors

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

In a Senate hearing last week, the US Secretary of Defense and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff laid out an usually clear and detailed description of what the United States is doing to disrupt and attack ISIS through cyber attacks.

The objective is to disrupt ISIS' chain of communication and prevent them from moving money and even to block them out of access to their money. The US Cyber Command Center, headquartered in Tampa, FL, is spoofing ISIS and disturbing the very heart of the Islamic State.

The US cyber team is trying to isolate ISIS.

According to Ash Carter, the US Secretary of Defense, "The objectives there are to interrupt ISIL command and control, interrupt its ability to move money around, interrupt its ability to tyrannize and control population, interrupt its ability to recruit externally."

And, of course, -- "All of that it does in a cyber-enabled way."

One of the 27 US Cyber teams is dedicated exclusively to ISIS. It is made up of many Arabic speakers and hackers. US Cyber teams are a combination of military and civilian contractors specializing in hacking. Eventually there will be 133 different teams - each team composed of 45-60 people. In the end this division will to have 6,187 people hacking. We can call them cyber warriors.

They are coordinating their cyber attacks with their ground strikes.

Part of the US objective in cyber attacking ISIS is to take away their method of communication - including their hand held devices.

The United States can shut the devices down, but tapping them and tracking them leads to better results. (This is something the US defense leaders did not say in their testimony).

For some time now, ISIS has preferring using handheld phones and texting as opposed to internet.
And of course, the US Cyber team is also attacking recruiters and other ISIS sources in Europe and throughout the rest of the world.

Most dangerous of all is that ISIS has contracted outside freelance hackers to do their bidding. According to the Senate testimony the US Cyber team has been monitoring and dealing with them, too.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Israel Lets Cement into Gaza

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Israel is now again permitting cement to be brought into Gaza.

Why? After all, it is clear that Hamas has used the cement to build and fortify their tunnels of terror and their command and control bunkers. The reason is that Turkey and others, especially the UN, are asking nicely.

Israel wants to renew relations with Turkey. This gesture will go a long way towards achieving that goal.

Israel had stopped the movement of cement into Gaza. The cement was supposed to be used by UN and other sources to rebuild Gaza's infrastructure and buildings, especially housing and schools. But much of the cement was either pilfered by Hamas for their purposes or stolen and sold at huge gouging prices.

Israel actually embarrassed Hamas' deputy economics minister in Gaza, Imad al Baz, who was responsible for the stealing of the cement and its resale and for appropriating it in order to build tunnels.

Israel embarrassed al Baz by using social media pictures and short videos to show how he redirected the cement away from UN projects and into the hands of Hamas.

Now Israel is going to try again.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Runoff Election in Iran

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Results of the runoff elections for parliament in Iran are now coming in. The first elections were in February. In that election, 68 spots were too close to call or no candidate received the minimal required number of votes to win a seat.

Friday April 29th was the day the runoff took place.

Thus far it looks like the reformers who support the current president, Rouhani, received a plurality of the 68 spots. 30 of the 68 runoff seats will side with Rouhani.
The remaining seats are split between the conservatives, the arch conservatives, and the independents.

The Iranian parliament has 290 seats. After all the votes and seats are finalized this election will give reformists a strong presence in public government.

This is a huge show of support for Rouhani and a terrible blow to Iran's religious leadership - especially the Supreme Leader, the Grand Ayatollah.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com


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