The Trump Bump

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

On Sunday Austrians will go to the polls and vote for a president.

Ever since the US presidential results came in, pundits in Austria and throughout Europe have been talking about The Trump Effect and the Trump Bounce.

One Austrian candidate is a populist named Norbert Hofer. He is pit against liberal, left leaning, Alexander Van der Bellen. As of now, Hofer is up in the polls.

Elections everywhere across the world are trying to tap into the phenomenon of Trump Energy. Elections are often more about the candidates than about issues, this election broke even those barriers.

In order to duplicate Trump-like effects you can't just be like Trump, you have to be Donald Trump himself.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Russia Setting Up Hospital in Aleppo

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Russia has decided to send a field hospital into Aleppo, Syria. This hospital will provide 100 beds and will be able to serve 420 people daily in outpatient services.

So many Syrians have been displaced and so many need medical help. Now Russia is bringing in medical care with trained medical professionals.

It is not pure altruism. Aleppo is in crisis and Russia sees that it is in their interests to help avert more civilian crises.

Russia only acts when it is in their best interests. They know how dangerous and how problematic the situation in Syria is, especially in Aleppo. But they need to secure the support of the masses against ISIS and al Nusra, a branch of al Qaeda.

With the help of the masses Russia can re-establish power and provide Syria with the stability that the Syrians so badly need.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Mosul - Not Over Yet

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Iraqi forces have killed as many as 100 ISIS fighters in Mosul.

Only one Iraqi unit actually entered into Mosul from the East where the massive fighting was -- this group is called the Golden Division and they are an elite, highly trained, unit.

The advance on Mosul has taken 6 weeks. The momentum is now squarely on the side of the Allies and the Iraqi establishment.

But ISIS has constantly been surprising the allies. I predict that they have other surprises up their sleeves in Mosul.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Iran Wants Naval Bases in Syria & Yemen

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Iran is planning to open distant naval bases - in Syria and in Yemen.

This is a very aggressive and telling move for Iran. It should be extremely worrying to the Sunni
Muslims in the region. But they are not the only country which should worry, this move is also a threat against the rest of the world.

The plan was made public in a news piece published in the Shargh daily newspaper, an official news outlet. It quoted an important general.

"We need distant bases, and it may become possible one day to have bases on the shores of Yemen or Syria, or bases on islands or floating (bases)," said General Mohammad Hossein Baqeri, quoted by the Shargh daily newspaper. "Is having distant bases less than nuclear technology? I say it is worth dozens of times more."

To even suggest that these bases are more important than the nuclear deal is huge. These new bases will be asserting a new power and putting Shiite Iran in close range of almost every regional center in the Middle East.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Terror Fires in Israel

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The fires ravaging Israel are acts of terror.

Several people have been arrested. Police have videos of people lighting fires. Entire communities have been evacuated - hundreds of thousands of people.

Thankfully, there have been no arson-related deaths, but many have been hospitalized for smoke-related injuries.

Minister Naftali Bennett said the terrorists "tried to kill an entire town". Bennett and Minister Avigdor Lieberman say that the answer to this type of terrorism is rebuilding and then building even more.

The cost of the fires will easily top $2 billion, maybe even $3 billion.
Terrorists have struck at the heart of the every single Israel. Israeli education stresses the beauty and the importance of nature and the value of land - especially the land of Israel.

Even those whose homes have not been threatened, or those who live out of the danger zone, are in pain about the loss and the damage.

Why would terrorists destroy the very same land that they want and claim to love?

Because, Palestinian terrorists gladly cut off their own arms when it results in Israelis losing a finger.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Terrible Fires in Israel

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Tens of thousands of Israeli's have been evacuated from their homes.

The University of Haifa was evacuated. The major prison in Haifa was evacuated. It is a devastating situation. It is a catastrophe.

Every Israeli is wrenched and pained by the fires ravaging the land and the lives of their fellow citizens.

It was undoubtedly arsonists who set the first four fires. The wind has helped to spread the circle of destruction. The police have made arrests. They say that the arson was nationally/politically motivated. That means terror.

Who would burn the land they supposedly love? Who would want to throw Jews out of their homes?

Cyprus and Greece sent four planes to help fight the fire. Russia, UK, Turkey, and Italy have also sent fire fighting planes. Prime Minister Netanyahu called on Evergreen, a US based company that has a 747 filled with water and was used to help fight the Carmel fires in 2010, and asked for their assistance. The plane drops 94,850 liters of water. Even the Palestinians sent four teams of firefighters.

Israel is usually front page news, but not this time. The devastation, the national pain, the fires burning through Israel have hardly made a blip on the international news cycle. The reason should be obvious. No deaths. No abuse of Palestinians. This story does not have any of the requisite elements needed to make international headlines.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Mosul Close To Liberation

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Since the assault to take back Mosul began last month, on October 17th, there has been slow progress towards achieving that goal.

But yesterday a major blow was struck against ISIS. The main supply road linking Mosul, Iraq to Raqqa, Syria was taken over by the Iraqi Shiite Militia, known as Hashed al Shaabi.

Air support was provided by the United States, but the ground fighting against ISIS was done by Iraqi Shiites.

On the very same day the US air-force destroyed the 4th bridge crossing the Tigris River into Mosul.
 
Cutting off the trade and travel route is very important. The entire route is 182 miles long. If it is interrupted it will make it nearly impossible for ISIS to send fighters from Raqqa to reinforce and help their fighters in Mosul.

These are their two remaining strongholds.

Iraqi sources estimate that there are between 5,000 to 10,000 ISIS fighters in Mosul. Amassing outside of Mosul are close to 100,000 Iraqi and other troops.

The battle is not over yet - but the end is in sight for liberating Mosul from ISIS.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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50,000 Ex Nazis Could Be Drawing a Penson

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

It is possible that 10's of thousands of Nazis are still collecting pensions from Germany.

There were 50,000 suspected Nazis working in Germany and as of 20 years ago Germany passed a law stating that suspected war criminals were to be stripped of their pensions.

After an investigation, it was uncovered that over the years of the 50,000 suspected workers, only 99 people have lost their pensions.

The German Ministry of Labor would not comment on this figure or about why so many suspected Nazis have continued to draw money from the state.

This is a terrible abuse of taxpayer money. Money should go to victims - not to murderers.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Iran Exporting Heavy Water

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has too much heavy water. It is a violation of the infamous nuke deal signed 18 months ago between Iran and the six world powers.

Heavy water helps cool down the technology that enriches plutonium.

Iran has decided to export the extra heavy water. It's not a lot, it comes to about 220 pounds of heavy water.

How is that done? How do we even know about this? The Iranian media ran a piece yesterday citing diplomatic sources who said that the heavy water was already sold and shipped to Oman.

This is not a violation of the infamous agreement. Actually, it is the objective of Iran and has been from the start. Iran has always wanted to supply the rest of the world with nuclear materials. Iran was angered and insulted that the United States would not permit other countries to have nuclear materials.

Iran is doing what they want to do - just as they always do.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Assassins in Egypt

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Two assassination attempts against Egyptian President al Sisi were just foiled by Egypt's police. The assassins were members of ISIS.

Egypt is experiencing very difficult economic and social tensions. Al Sisi is working hard at keeping terrorists at bay, but it is a difficult battle.

One of the assassination plots was to be carried out at the Clock Tower Hotel in Mecca during the president's pilgrimage to the Hajj.

The plan was for the wife of the plot organizer to put on a suicide belt and blow herself up. The suicide bomb was intended to serve as a distraction for al Sisi's guards and he would be killed.

At the same time that al Sisi was being murdered, the ISIS plotters planned to assassinate the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Muhammed bin Nayyef.

Egyptian police also uncovered a second ISIS plot. They call the plotters the bearded police and they have been arrested and charged.

Assassination is a commonly used weapon in the Middle East. ISIS is exploiting those who are loyal to the cause, many of whom work inside mainstream professions, by getting them to hand over information and facilitate access to targets. That is exactly what happened in Mecca and in Egypt.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Palestinian Civil War

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

There is a significant movement rising up against Palestinian leadership in the Palestinian Authority.
The movement includes violent armed conflicts and shootouts with PA security and police pitted against armed locals in villages and towns like Ballata.

Ballata is a refugee camp outside of Shechem/Nabuls.

What makes this current internal conflict different from previous conflicts is that this time those fighting the establishment are not from Hamas - they are true blue Fatah supporters and always have been. They are people who have gotten to the point where they can no longer tolerate Palestinian corruption.

They support Mohammed Dahlan.

Dahlan is in exile and living in Abu Dhabi. Once upon a time he was one of Arafat's fair-haired boys and was the strong arm power of the PA in Gaza. Abbas and Dahlan came into conflict when Dahlan accused Abbas' two sons of corruption by using their power to amass personal financial success.
Dahlan was then convicted, in absentia, of corruption and of besmirching the name of the president.

The corruption is just one element of the discontent and resulting armed conflicts.

Palestinians are rejecting PA leadership because they have come to the full realization that there is no hope for change in the leadership. People are discouraged. Jobs are given only to insiders and their families.

The situation is getting so bad that the shootouts themselves have claimed the lives of at least 12 people and resulted in the wounding of dozens others.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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MidEast Importing US Natural Gas

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The US is exporting natural gas from shale to the Middle East.

Two shipments of liquefied natural gas went to Kuwait, one to the United Arab Emirates and two to Jordan. This is mind boggling.

Kuwait and the UAE together hold 40% of the world’s natural gas reserves. And they have more than 100 years of natural gas reserves.

So why are they importing US natural gas?

The answer is that they have a shortage of usable natural gas.

How? Here's how. They have heavily subsidized gas and fixed prices and they have a huge amount of wasted energy. Prices are so low and demand is crazy high --- so they need much more. Their gas is sour which means it has to be purified. It contains far too much hydrogen sulfide. That is expensive -- way above the price being charged per BTU in these gas rich Middle East countries.

And that's why it is getting cleaner gas from the US makes sense, even if it is counter intuitive.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Putin Pulls Out of World Court

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Russian President Putin signed an executive order pulling Russia out of the International Criminal Court.

Putin and Russia will no longer be part of the World court. The Russians originally signed the treaty in 2000 but the government never ratified the treaty so the executive leader - Putin-can pull out of the treaty by simply signing an executive order.

Russia has been very upset at the World Court for two major reasons. First. the Court is calling their 2014 annexation of Crimea an armed conflict and second, the court has claimed that Russia committed crimes against humanity in 2008.

The executive order also pointed out that while in the last 14 years the ICC has spent $1 billion, it has rendered only four decisions.

They say it's just not worth it.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Bibi On Russia

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke about Israeli Russian relations. Given Russia's new role in Syria and the Middle East, everyone is concerned that an unintended skirmish might accidently become a reality.

Netanyahu said: "We are in close contact with Russia. I met four times over the last year with Putin in order to avoid any clashes that nobody wants between the IDF and the Russian army. So far, there has not been one and we hope there will not be one. The reality in the Middle East changes extremely fast and not always to our detriment. We need one thing and that is to be strong."

Yesterday, on Monday, Russia increased its intense bombing in Aleppo. The air attack originated from the aircraft carrier they have stationed off the coast of Tartus. That is the same carrier where, on Sunday, a MIG-29 crashed while landing.

Accidents happen in the air. But Israel and Russia want to make certain that, just in case, they will not be in one another's.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Israel is World's Best

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The World Health Organization (WHO) has awarded Israel the honor of being the country with the best disaster relief system in the world.

Israeli field hospitals are now ranked the best in the world.

The WHO said that Israel has a unique ability to deploy large, fully outfitted, medical teams with field hospitals at a second's notice and travel all over the world. The WHO evaluated Israel's teams as highly skilled.

People who monitor Israel and people who monitor world catastrophe know full well the grand and spectacular role Israel plays.

This is not an award - it is an honest evaluation. The truth is that whenever there is a world crisis,
Israel volunteers and is almost always welcome.

Israel saves lives and teaches others how to save lives.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Iran's Oil Production

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Iran is once again violating their OPEC agreement.

This is upsetting Saudi Arabia more than anyone else. Iran is a member of OPEC and has agreed to their production quotas.

The purpose of the production quotas is to keep the price of oil as high as possible without creating a crisis that would stimulate research for new alternatives to fossil fuels.

Iran has begun producing about 250,000 barrels from the Karoun River valley, up from 65,000. President Rouhani says that productions in the valley should reach 1 million barrels per day --- ASAP. "Oil production west of Karoun must reach one million barrels per day," Rouhani said, referring to the North Azadegan, Yadavaran and Yaran fields. "This is a realistic goal, and we need investment and technology."

This will be a massive change in Iran's production. There is no doubt that the increase in oil production will have two effects. More cash will flow into Iran and the price of oil will drop.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Iran Vioaltes Nuke Deal

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Once again, Iran has violated the nuclear agreement.
 
This time around they violated the agreement at the very moment that they were warning President Elect Trump not to walk back on the famous agreement.

This information comes from the Associated Press.

AP saw a copy of a secret UN report by the IAEA stating that Iran has recently exceeded their agreed upon heavy water limit, which was 143.3 metric tons.

Iran went over by .10 metric tons.

The significance of this is enormous. Heavy water is an essential component of refining plutonium for use in nuclear technology.

Reports of these violations are few and far between. That's because few people want to harp on the inadequacies of the agreement and the policing process.

This is just one example. Like so many others, this violation went without notice. This was not the first violation and, worse still, it will not be the last.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Rebels in Syria Prefer Trump

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

From what I am hearing, seeing and reading, Donald Trump's election to the presidency is seen as a positive by the rebels in Syria.

The rebels see Trump's ascent as a welcome change. They were very disappointed with Obama's lack of action = especially after Putin and Russia put boots on the ground in order to secure president Assad of Syria.

The rebels realize that Trumps has been very clear about ISIS and about taking the fight to ISIS. But they are also frustrated that the United States has not supported them in their battle against Assad and ISIS and al Qaeda and Hezbollah.

The rebels needed the US and Obama would not help. Now they are hoping that this new president will act and give them the weapons and the support they need to adequately fight ISIS and bring down Assad.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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What Really Happened in the Election

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Trump's election to the highest office in the land has many stunned.
Strange reasons were given for his victory.

The entire paradigm has shifted. The Democratic and Republican parties are no longer what they once were.

The Republican party is no longer the party of the wealthy and the elite. It is the party of the blue color worker and those who want to eek out an honest living.

The Democratic party was once the party of the worker, not just the organized worker. The Democratic party has been transformed and is now the party of the elite intelligentsia.

The former elite party is now the party of the honest worker. The former party of the workers, the party that looked out for the little guy, is now a party of people who are detached from workers, their needs and their issues.

It's quite an inversion.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Long Live the King

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The king is dead -- long live the king. That is how Charles VII of France was ushered onto the throne after the death of his father, Charles VI.

It is all about a smooth transition of power.

Mr. Donald Trump is the next president of the United States.

Most of pundits were wrong, they misread the polls and the numbers.
Analysts misunderstood the tone and the basics of what was happening in America. They could not - or did not, place proper weight on the messages and the answers that were given to them in the polls.

Establishment leaders and mainstream media could not admit that average Americans were feeling betrayed. There is a class divide.

While the country's leaders and elite could not believe that anyone would vote for Republican candidate Donald Trump, the people, in fact, voted for him resoundingly

It is clear that change is the best theme for a successful campaign. In fact, that was the theme that got Barack Obama elected in both his campaigns.

This is a revolution, a real change.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Election Day

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

It's Election Day. Certainly, an exciting day.

As I mentioned, Ivanka Trump and her husband Jared Kushner visited the grave of the Lubavicther
Rebbe the other day. Yesterday, the Satmar Chasidic sect endorsed Hillary. Satmar is divided into two large groups and both they support Hillary.

This is very unusual. The vast majority of the Orthodox Jewish community in the US will vote Republican. The vast majority of American Jews in general will cast their votes for Democrats. That's the history of American Jewry.

On the other hand, the Satmar have a long history of supporting the Clintons.

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Egypt to Buy Iran's Oil

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
The Egyptian oil minister took a trip to Iran yesterday. It has been a very long time since any senior Egyptian official traveled to Iran.

The reason for the visit is that the Saudis suspended their oil deal with Egypt last October after Egypt supported a UN resolution on Syria. It was a resolution that the Saudis opposed vehemently.

This entire move is very unusual.

The Saudis have supported Egypt since al Sisi took over. They have been Egypt's financial safety net. By going to Iran a new avenue for oil is opening for Egypt. It could be a gesture of independence on Egypt's part or, it could be simply a head fake.

Saudi Arabia was a major Egyptian benefactor. If Egypt actually does sign a deal with Iran it could shake up the entire balance in the Middle East.

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Ivanka Visits Rebbe's Grave

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Here are two interesting tidbits to mull over on the eve of the US Presidential election.

# 1: Ivanka Trump and her husband Jarred Kushner visited the grave of the Lubavitcher Rebbe. The obvious reason was to court a very powerful and influential segment of the Orthodox Jewish community, a community which is already voting Republican.

The second reason is that they really were appealing to the awesome power of the Rebbe to help and assist Donald Trump in the election process. I am certain that they are not alone. Many people are praying for their candidate to win.

# 2: In the ISIS online journal called Al Hayat which is produced by the communications team of ISIS a call went out for US Muslims to boycott the presidential election and, instead, vote with blood by attacking Americans.

The very long article was filled with pictures and quotes from the Koran speaking about the "Murtadd." The Murtadd is an apostate, a former Muslim who must be killed. ISIS identifies US Muslim leaders as Murtadd.

There has been actionable intel of threats on election day in New York City, Texas and Virginia.
What we have here in these two tidbits are two sides of the coin.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Israel Says Iran Controls Syria

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Avi Dichter, chair of Israel's Knesset Defense and Intelligence Committee, reported to the Swiss Parliament that Iran is commanding a force of 25,000 fighters in Syria. The force is actually a foreign legion composed of Pakistanis and Afghanis ... not Iranians.

Iran trained, commands and supports the fighters.

Dichter explained that Iran has brought both this force and Hezbollah into Syria. He said that these forces are not fighting ISIS at all. They are fighting the rebels and any group challenging Assad. He also described their advanced weapons and their skills.

Bottom line: Hezbollah has gained much needed experience while fighting in Syria and defending Assad. All courtesy of Iran.

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Putin Defies Snactions

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
 
Putin and Russia defy the world. They have snubbed their proverbial noses at UN Security Council sanctions that were slapped on them after the 2014 land grab of Crimea.

Russia ordered two Mistral helicopter carriers from France. But sanctions did not permit France to deliver the ships.

Now fast forward to the end of September 2016.

That's when France delivered two Mistral carriers to Egypt. Supposedly, the Saudis paid for the ships.
The delivery was covered in the Egyptian press with great fanfare. Then the carriers disappeared. They have now re-appeared off the coast of Tartus, Syria as Russian helicopter carriers. Is anyone surprised?

The Polish minister of defense uncovered the entire story and made it public by announcing that the Egyptians sold the French ships to the Russians for a single dollar. The minister said that his intelligence was reliable.

This is a blatant end around UN sanctions. It completely demonstrates how all the parties involved in
this charade simply do not care what the UN decrees and will do whatever they can and whatever they want to advance their own goals.

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Israeli Mr Universe

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Remember Arnold Schwarzenegger. He won the Mr. Universe title four times in the under 23 year old under division.

This week in Birmingham, England, Israeli Kobi Yifach won the same title of Mr. Universe. This is a huge feather in the hat of Israel.

As Kobi said "It's an amazing feeling to wrap myself in the Israeli flag. I came from such a small country and became the center of attention. This is unprecedented!"
Israel is a tiny country not only in the world of body building but in the world in general. This victory puts Israel on both maps.

Mr. Universe is the most prestigious of all body building awards.

Future competitions will tell whether is a Israel is a fixture in the body building community of simply a blip on it radar.

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UAE Convicts Hezbollah Cell

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) convicted and sentenced 7 people to sentences of up to life in prison for being members of a cell connected to Hezbollah, which is a Shiite group sponsored by Iran and headquartered in Lebanon.

The 7 were tried and convicted of various degrees of espionage.

Cell members transferred pictures of oil fields and maps and the locations of gas fields. The convictions prove that the Sunnis of the UAE are actively trying to stop Shiite organization and aggression.

This is no small act or either side.

Hezbollah's objective is destabilize Sunni centers of power. The Sunnis are trying to repel Shiite incursions into their homes.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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