Israel Worried About US/Iran Dialogue

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The G-7 meeting was very worrisome for Israel.

Let me explain. President Trump publicly announced that he would gladly meet with his Iranian counterpart President Rouhani.

Here is the worry.

If the United States advances toward Iran in a path similar to the paths the US has taken with North Korea, it will mean that dialoguing with Iran will become a priority. It will weaken Israel's ability to influence the US.

More importantly, Israel has a series of priorities for their country's security. There are certain red lines in the sand that Israel wants to make certain the US does not cross with Iran.

This situation, this diplomatic warming between the United States and Iran, is not good news for Israel.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Tensions btw Israel & Hezbollah

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Tensions are rising between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Add into the mix the terror group The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command, also known as PFLP - GC and the tensions are pulsing even higher.

There are obvious reasons for these tensions. Hezbollah and the PFLP are sworn enemies of Israel and their raison-d'être is the destruction of Israel.

But of late there has been serious Israeli engagement in Lebanon and Syria. The groups are shouting about it. They are saber rattling.

Several important points of clarification - These groups do not awaken one day and hate Israel more than they did the day before.

Hezbollah has at least150,000 rockets. That is a conservative estimate. They have more rockets than 95% of the militaries in the world. Many of those are short range unguided rockets but a significant number are guided missiles with long range capabilities.

Another important point to make is that the Israeli elections are upon us. The will take place on September 17. Prime Minster is being portrayed as weak in Gaza by other contenders because he has not acted in Gaza. There is no magic solution to Gaza. So, Netanyahu has to show strength. He is attacking in Lebanon and Syria where it is easier to strike.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Muslim Edict Aginst US Soldiers

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

A fatwah is an Islamic edict declared by a leading authority.

Shiite theologian Grand Ayatollah Kazi al Haeri is held in very high regard by Iraqi Shiites. And he has declared a fatwah forbidding US troops to step foot in Iraq.

Grand Ayatollah Kazi al Haeri called on Iraqi forces to attack and stop all US forces.

The edict comes after media from all over the world covered stories that described Israel's attack on Shiite bases in Iraq - bases that are affiliated with Iran. Two Israeli officials confirmed that Israel was responsible for the attacks.

Many locals in the Middle East do not countenance any non-believers anywhere in the Middle East - not in any Arab lands.

The US brings out vicious animus in some people.

Over the years there have been numerous fatwahs involving the United States. This Grand Ayatollah is not alone.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Saudis Track Hajj Pilgrims w Chip

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia has announced that they are instituting a smart chip for everyone joining the Hajj - the annual pilgrimage to the holy city of Mecca.

Over 2.5 people, or pilgrims, travel to Mecca every year.

For many pilgrims, the chip will certainly be considered an invasion of their privacy. It will allow the organizers to monitor all movements of all participants. The chip can detect mass movements. It can rearrange and reorganize transportation.

The chip can and will also direct and redirect people and police to provide a more efficient movement.

It will also track where people are sleeping and what they are doing. Every person who enters will be tracked.

There is a positive side for the 2.5 million people who will now be tracked - the chip can help in health emergencies and get immediate aid to people in distress.

The Saudis know this chip works. They quietly tested it out this year and it was a great success.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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How to Tell an Anti-Semite

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

A nonsensical school of thought has been making its way into all sorts of forums and discussions. It goes like this: Criticizing Israel is not anti-Semitic. Don't label every criticism and critic of Israel an anti-Semite. As an example, proponents of this erroneous thinking will point to former President Barack Obama and say that Obama was a great lover of Israel, but he was also a vocal critic. He would say "friends need to call friends out when they make mistakes."

That may be true, but - and it's a big and important but - some people couch their anti- Semitism as criticism of Israel.

There are two factors that determine if the person criticizing Israel is an anti-Semite.
#1: does the critique allow for Israel to exist or does it suggest that if Israel were not there the problem would be solved
#2: the tone of the critique

Tone is everything. Critique is done with respect and love and is immediately identifiable. That kind of critique does not seek to harm or destroy but rather to help and assist.

Much of the recent and very vocal public criticism of Israel does not stand up to these factors.
Certainly, US Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib fits into the category of anti-Semite.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Is Israel Bombing Iraq? Maybe!

By Micah Halpern

 

I've Been Thinking:

On Tuesday, an arms depot north of Baghdad was blown up. The depot was hit by an aerial strike. It belonged to an Iraqi, pro-Iranian militia. Last week, an arms depot south of Baghdad, also belonging to pro-Iranian fighters, was also destroyed by an airstrike.

Sounds like someone is targeting Iranian fighters in Iraq.

The finger is pointing toward Israel.

Israel has, over the past few years, publicaly warned of the Iranian influence in Iraq and has insisted that Iran is becoming a major military force inside Iraq.

Israel now has stealth capabilities. They operate F-35s which can travel without being detected. So it is certainly possible, if not probable, that Israel is testing out its efficiency and abilities by hitting Iranian bases in Iraq.

This is not a new front for Israel, it is an experiment. And while perfecting their capabilities, they are also effectively clipping and trimming Iranian influence and Iranian weapons caches.

Iran is an arch enemy of Israel. At this stage Israel will not strike Iran directly. However, pro-Iranian militias in Iraq are fair game.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Iran Made Mistake Signing Deal

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Ali Shamkhani is a very close and trusted adviser of Iran's Supreme Leader. He is an official in the inner circle of Iran.

Lester Holt of NBC News sat down for a face-to-face with someone who almost never addresses the West and is as close as you can get to the Grand Ayatollah.

In the course of the interview Shamkhani said that Iran should never have signed the famous JCPOA, simply known as the Iranian nuke deal.

He said that it was not good for Iran. He also explained that, at the time, there were people who believed that a moderate approach was the best avenue to pursue.

He said that most of Iran, and certainly Iranian leadership, fervently believes that the entire strategy was a mistake and that Iran has suffered because of that moderate approach.

What Shamkhani is actually doing is telegraphing is the ouster of the current leadership, the President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif who were the architects of the agreement.

Shamkhani agreed to the interview only after he received the okay from the Supreme Leader, who also crafted the message he wanted to have presented and provided Shamkhani with his talking points.

There are big political changes on the horizon in Iran.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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ISIS Alive & Well

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The suicide bombing in Kabul, Afghanistan which murdered 63 people and wounded 183 others is rock solid proof that ISIS is alive and well.

ISIS claimed responsibility for the bombing at the Shiite wedding celebration.

This is what they do best.
They are mass murderers of Muslims.

That might sounds strange because we, in the West, think of ISIS as targeting the West. While that is true, their main objective of ISIS is to intimidate and influence Muslims in the Muslim world.

ISIS announced the reason for their attack in Kabul. They said they attacked because the United States was negotiating a deal with the

Taliban and establishing an end to the 18 year old conflict in Afghanistan.

This bombing was a message to Muslims.

ISIS is back and alive and well and if you dare to stand up and oppose ISIS, you will be targeted - beware, you've been warned.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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UK Strips Jihadi Jack of Citizenship

I've Been Thinking:

Jack Letts is best known as Jihadi Jack, a dual UK / Canadian citizen who joined ISIS in 2014. Two years before joining, Jack had converted to Islam. In 2014 he changed his name to Abu Mohammed, married an Iraqi woman had a child.

Abu Mohammed has been interviewed on the BBC, pledging his allegiance to ISIS and promising to fight for the cause.

His parents sent him $300 and were subsequently tried and convicted of sponsoring terror. He claims he bought falafel and a pair of glasses with the money - not nuclear weapons.
Now Jack Letts cum Abu Mohammed cum Jihadi Jack wants to return to the UK.

The British Home Office not only said no - they stripped Jack of his UK citizenship and said he is Canada's problem now.

Meanwhile, Canada says that Jihadi Jack has no real contact with Canada and is a Canadian citizen only by virtue of his father, an organic farmer, who holds a Canadian passport.

The UK is correct to reject him.

Jihadi Jack must live with his decision.

Joining the enemy and fighting against your home country is treasonous and an act of sedition. It is easier to pull citizenship than to try someone as a traitor. Let Jack live in the community he selected when he abandoned his home and chose instead to take up arms against the country that nurtured him.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Israel Denies Entry To US Congresswomen

By Micah Halpern

 

I've Been Thinking:

I usually touch on subjects before they become headline news, but today I am making an exception. Today I must weigh in on the news of the day.

Israel deciding not to permit entry to two United States Congresswomen.

As everyone knows, the two members of Congress in question are Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar, the first Muslim females in Congress.

On their trip to Israel the Congresswomen wanted to focus only on Palestinian sites and interests. They scheduled no visits with

Israeli officials or, for that matter, any Israelis. Actually, in their invite to other members of Congress they explained that they were only entering Israel in order to pass into Palestine.

Both these members of Congress have proposed a bill to support BDS.

Israel has passed a law permitting leadership to prevent entry to those people who are known supporters of BDS.

I do not think it was wise of Israel to prevent entry to the Congresswomen - BUT, Israel was certainly justified in blocking them from entering the country.

All those who claim that Israel was violating freedom of speech are totally incorrect.

There is a limit to freedom of speech. That freedom stops when people are trying to destroy a state.
The state - any state has the right and the responsibility, to protect itself against those advancing against it and attacking it.

BDS is not an idea. BDS is not an issue of speech. BDSers intend to galvanize supporters to unite and destroy Israel.

About that there is no question.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Israel's Anti Drone Drones

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Drones are extremely difficult to defend against and now, a subsidiary of Israel Aerospace Industries named ELTA Systems has improved on their already very effective Drone Guard.

This improvement is called the Bird. One of the many advances the Bird has over the Drone Guard is a suicide mission that attacks incoming drones.

The new system identifies the drone or set of drones from take off.

It even predicts the direction the enemy drone will take. This system differentiates the incoming drone from other aircraft. Even if the other drone tries to deceive it with balloons, kites, hot air, even if it uses live ammo and shoots. The Bird knows it is a drone.

The Bird also employs the Drone guard technology of zapping enemy drones with electronic beams and rays that will cause the enemy system to implode.

Best of all is technology that enables the Bird to hijack enemy drones.

A new cyber war is taking place. ELTA's Bird is a major player in that war.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Hamas Threats

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Speaking at an Eid al Adha ceremony, the head of Hamas, Yihya Sinwar, said that Hamas will teach Israel a lesson if it invades Gaza again.

Sinwar emphasized that Hamas will launch hundreds of rockets into Israel simultaneously. Israel, he said, will be broken.

"If Israel launches a campaign in Gaza, hundreds of rockets will be fired at Israeli cities in one go ... Hamas will break the IDF if it enters the Gaza Strip."

This is bravado, it is hyperbole.

Hamas really believes that they will strike and seriously hurt Israel - but it is pure bravado, hyperbole.
In Israel, any loss is a huge loss.

It is Hamas and Gaza who will suffer if Israel is forced to attack Gaza again.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Caspian Oil Battle

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The five nations that surround the oil rich Caspian Sea (or Lake) met on Monday to figure out how to divide the great natural wealth - oil, that lies there.

Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan all have a stake. Russia and Iran are most insecure about what might happen.

Because of that insecurity they have not ratified an agreement that was drawn up last year. The other three countries are waiting for Russia and Iran to make the first moves and sign.

Both Iran and Russia are afraid that this newly found oil will change the supply of oil on the world market. They are particularly worried about Western countries that are urging the construction of a

Caspian natural gas pipeline that will bring that oil over land to the West, especially Western Europe.
Iran and Russia need to preserve their reserves, keep the supply down and make certain the prices of oil and gas stay high.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Muslim Holiday

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday was the Muslim holiday of Eid al Adha. It is the Festival of the Sacrifice, also called Eid al Qurban.

Eid al Adha is one of two big Muslim holidays, the other is Eid al Fitr.

This holiday commemorates the story in the Koran of Ibrahim taking his son Ishmael and offering him as a sacrifice to God. At the last minute God stops Ibrahim and provides a lamb that is sacrificed instead of Ishmael.

If this sounds eerily similar to the story of Abraham and Isaac in Genesis chapter 21, that's because they are, indeed, the same story.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Iran Claims Military Greatness

By Micah Halpern

 

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is masterful at propping themselves up as undefeatable.

Iranian Revolutionary Guard Naval Commander Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi spoke to FARS, the official Iranian news agency, and said that: "Americans have always been the ultimate and full-scale losers in all their encounters with the IRGCN [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy], and the most notable cases of their defeats were on April 14, 1988, and January 12, 2016 before their drone was shot down on June 20."

Fadavi was referring to three incidents:
#1: the April 1988 incident when an Iranian mine badly damaged the U.S. frigate Samuel B. Roberts
#2: Iran's kidnapping in January 2016 of two American riverine boats and ten sailors after the boats mistakenly strayed into Iranian waters
#3: the downing in June 2019 of the US Triton drone

Fadavi continued and said: "that all failures and defeats of the U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf are illustrative of the Americans' desperation, frustration, and agony in the face of the Iranian nation in the past 40 years."

This is simply - and not surprisingly, not what happened at all.

In 1988 the US responded, launching Operation Praying Mantis and crippling Iran's navy. Luckily the situation deescalated and did not turn into a full blown war.

As far as Fadavi's other two examples, the United States wisely chose to neither react nor overreact.
It's all about the spin.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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ISIS Re-Boot in Syria

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Here's a surprise. ISIS is re-establishing itself in Syria. Don't just take my word for it, a report released this week by the US Department of Defense Inspector General's office spells it out very clearly.

"Despite losing its territorial 'caliphate,' the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) solidified its insurgent capabilities in Iraq and was resurging in Syria" from April through June.

The report begins with Principal Deputy Inspector General Glenn A.

Fine writing that from April through June, U.S. forces in Syria fulfilled the Trump administration's directive to partly withdraw from the country. Military officials told the inspector general's office that "the reduction of U.S. forces has decreased the support available for Syrian partner forces at a time when their foces [sic] need more training and equipping to respond to the ISIS resurgence."

Officials told the inspector general's office that ISIS continues to function as an insurgency in both Iraq and Syria partly because forces there "remain unable to sustain long-term operations against ISIS militants." ISIS is also "likely reestablishing financial networks in both countries."

Beyond that, military officials warned, ISIS "maintains an extensive worldwide social media effort to recruit fighters."

This means that ISIS is bouncing back.

It also means that ISIS is waging war against US allies and others who targeted them. Are you surprised?

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Iran is Jamming Ships' GPS

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is playing dirty tricks in and around the Strait of Hormuz. For one, they are jamming the GPS of tankers, causing ships to wander off course - and in to their waters. They are also spoofing and radioing as if they are friendly and US navy ships.

US Central Command in the area, known as CENTCOM, said in a statement that Iran "spoofed bridge-to-bridge communications from unknown entities falsely claiming to be US or coalition warships."

"Due to the heightened regional tensions, the potential for miscalculation or misidentification could lead to aggressive actions against vessels belonging to US, allied and coalition partners operating in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman ... GPS interference, bridge-to-bridge communications spoofing, and/or other communications jamming with little to no warning."

Bridge-to-bridge communication is when ships speak to one another.

Jamming and spoofing by Iran explains quite a lot of what has been happening in the Strait. Iran is not playing a fun game. And as always, the Iranians are playing by their own rules.

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Amazon Coming to Israel

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Amazon is going to open operations in Israel in September - before the September 17th elections which falls a few days before the eve of Rosh Hashanah.

Amazon wants the site to be all in Hebrew.

Amazon has very stringent demands on writing, pictures and clarity of message. They are also very precise about handling and delivery. If it cannot happen in Hebrew, they will launch in English and then switch over to Hebrew. If everything is not in place and ready by September, Amazon will wait until after Sukkot and launch in November in time for the busy shopping period called Black Friday.

Amazon has already gobbled up several Israeli tech companies including a huge cloud service.

This is huge for Israel.

Having Amazon will be a huge boon in the local markets of delivery and move Israel's markets to an entirely new level. It will also devastate brick and mortar store fronts and ma and pa stores in Israel as it has done around the world. The competition will force Israel's big retailers and chain stores, including food stores, to up their game and move into internet sales.

Change can be great, change can also be very scary.

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Palestinian GPS Around Checkpoints

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

A Palestinian tech company named Doroob created and app that can be downloaded through Google that will avoid Israeli check points and the long lines and waits that are involved.

The root D Ra Ba is found 58 times in the Koran. It's mentioned as Yadriba or as the noun Doroob and it means "to set forth."

Doroob Navigation uses crowd sourcing so people use their phones and the GPS to show where traffic in building up and to offer get updates and preferred routes.

Doroob operates much like Waze and Google Maps. But those systems were not very effective in the Palestinian areas - and this one is.

This company made their own maps and their own program.

Many check points are permanent, others change all the time. The IDF does that for security reasons. Although not its primary purpose, this program helps terrorists avoid the check points.

The IDF will have to work hard to stay out in front of this new software.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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The Left Can't Oust Bibi

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The media is spending much energy showing how Israel's left and center left parties are trying to oust Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

They are offering up a valiant set of descriptions - but their cause is hopeless.

All studies show that fewer and fewer Israelis connect with the left -- 12%.

In fact, in Israel, more and more voters lean right than left -- 59%.
Actually, the left numbers are almost as low as the numbers for those who simply do not care.

That does not mean that Bibi cannot be ousted ... Just unlikely.

Avigdor Lieberman is convinced that he can oust Netanyahu by creating a swing party. He thinks that his party will be big enough to make them essential to any coalition and that they will then decide if they want to take the government left or right.

Lieberman decided that Likud, Netanyahu's party, should select a number two. That way Netanyahu can step down when Lieberman - once again - refuses to join with Likud under Bibi Netanyahu.

Lieberman is also threatening to go to join the left. That is an empty threat. His voters are hardcore right and hard core secular. Lieberman's supporters would never countenance the moderate points of view of the Blue and White party.

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J.Lo in Tel Aviv

By Micah Halpern

Sunday August 4, 2019
I've Been Thinking:
J.LO - Jennifer Lopez, performed in Tel Aviv on Thursday to a crowd of 50,000 admirers.

The performer, her fiance A Rod and her twin daughters spent five days in Israel. The performance was part of J.Lo's "It's My Party Tour" that they turned into a family vacation.

While in Israel, they visited the Western Wall, took in Tel Aviv culture and generally enjoyed their time. There were great shots of her on the Tel Aviv Beach.

Tremendous pressure was put on the world famous dancer-actress-performer not to accept the invitation to bring her show to Israel and then later, to cancel her trip. The BDS movement has been successful in intimidating many performers - but not this time.

J.LO is only one of two A-list performers who have come to Israel - the second is Bon Jovi.

J.LO posted dozens of selfies and family pictures. She declared how wonderful Israel and Israelis are.
She said that she would be back.

JLO has 100 million followers on social media. She is more than a star, just like her fiance is more than a former baseball player.

They are icons. They are idolized. J.LO and A Rod's trip and their posts reinforced for Israelis that they are part of world culture.

This past year Israel has felt beaten up and abused on the international scene. BDS has been very effective. JLO helped invigorate Israel. She accomplished more for the case for Israel than any diplomatic initiative or PR campaign could have achieved.

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Japan Won't Help in the Strait

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The United States has been working on creating a coalition of countries to patrol the Strait of Hormuz.

It should seem like the obvious thing to do - the Strait of Hormuz is now the most dangerous maritime region in the world. And responsibility for that lies totally and completely on Iran's aggressive maneuvers in trying to exert influence on Western policy and force the United States and other countries to reconsider the sanctions that have been crippling the country.

Without a broad based world coalition, a true defense strategy to protect the oil tankers using the waterway will fail. A broad coalition is both a practical and public relations necessity. It is the only way to condemn Iran effectively.

And yet, there is opposition. Japan has said that they will not join.

They are afraid that it may trigger a war. Japan has said that they may escort their own ships (highly unlikely) and that they will provide airplanes to assist in monitoring the Strait.

Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga, said that they: "... are closely monitoring the situation and continue to collect information while working closely with the United States and other countries."

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Iran's Economy

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The currency of Iran is the rial.

The most recent US sanctions against Iran have hurt Iran badly.

The economy of Iran is suffering.

In order to survive the tremendous inflation they are suffering, Iranian leadership has decided to lop off four zeroes from the rial.

Iran's inflation is so high, we have no idea how high it really is. There are official inflation numbers of 30%, but we know those numbers aren't true. Unofficial numbers put Iran's inflation at 1,000% - that's one thousand percent.

The announcement about the rial was made by the Iranian government spokesman after a government meeting.

To get a sense of what has happened to the rial and the economy of Iran let's look at the rial over the past 4 years. In 2015 $1 was worth 32,000 rials. Today the official exchange rate is 120,000 to $1.
Wow!

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