China & the Middle East

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The landscape is changing in the Middle East.

More and more countries are warming up to Israel.
And China is playing a more significant role in the Middle East.

That’s not all good news. Israel must tread very carefully.

China is determined to develop deeper relationships and become more involved with various Mid East countries. And Israel is on that list.

As the Trump era wanes and the Biden administrations emerges, China is going to want to play a more and more active role.

China cannot replace the United States – that is abundantly clear. But Israel will want to gain some of the advantages China has to offer. Those include investors, tourists, hi-tech production and most importantly, low-priced imports.

Trump did not look kindly at Chinese advances toward investments in Israel. We do not know how Biden will view the move.

It is imperative for Israel to understand that, while China may become a business partner, China will never be a friend.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Naysayers About Normalization

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Morocco is the fourth Arab nation to announce normalization with Israel.
Over the past three decades Israel and Morocco have had secret relations - especially in the areas of security, terror and even foreign relations.

Despite all that, there has been serious blow back against the move to normalization. In Morocco and throughout the Arab world there is talk that normalization is an abandonment of the Palestinians and that following Donald Trump’s lead is a real mistake.

There is no way of knowing what the numbers are, of how many Moroccans support or reject normalization in Morocco. Morocco is not a democracy.

However, it is clear that the move will help concretize and increase relations with Israel and that those interactions that have been in place for decades.

Naysayers are exaggerating the damage that will be done and underestimating the benefits to Morocco.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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A/S Is Still Around

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Anti-Semitism still exists. That should not come as a surprise.

The Simon Wiesenthal Center in LA published a top ten list of anti- Semitic outbreaks for 2020.

Number one: Jews created COVID. Again, not a surprise.

The report clearly explains that “[f]rom the earliest stages of the pandemic in February 2020, far-right extremists across social media platforms blamed Jews and Asian Americans for the virus.”

One example of that hatred is demonstrated through “an image titled ‘Holocough’ [that] urged, ‘If you have the bug, give a hug. Spread the flu to every Jew.’”

Another example is demonstrated throuf\gh a Trojan Horse with a Jew and a globe inside. The head of the horse is COVID-19 and people at the gate of the city invite the horse in.

The idea that the Jews created and spread COVID is obviously a canard. The most unfortunate part is that there are still many people living among us who believe the ugliest of stories about Jews.

And that, I am afraid, will not change and not go away in 2021.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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COVID in Israel

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Israel announced that they should have the COVID-19 pandemic under control by late February to mid-March.

They have already vaccinated nearly 300,000 people. 100,000 were vaccinated on Sunday alone.

There have been some hiccups. People complained that when they called on December 24th for appointments to vaccinate their elderly parents, they received an appointment for March. That is three months later.

When they complain, they are asked to call back because “more vaccination sites are opening all the time”.

Chief Sefardic Rabbi Yitzchak Yossef dedicated time to discuss the COVID vaccine on his Saturday night Torah lesson which is broadcast around the world on radio and internet TV.

Rabbi Yossef said that it was a Jewish legal obligation to GET the vaccine.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Iran Threatens Israel

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Iran threatened Israel by saying that they will attack any Israeli submarine found in the Persian Gulf. This threat came in response to statements by Israel and the United States that they are dispatching subs to the area.

Abu al Fadi Amoui, a spokesperson for the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Parliament, said this in an interview on Al Jazeera in Arabic:

“Israel must know that our response to aggression against our national security will be strong and massive … Israel is looking for excuses to drag the region into a tension that creates chaos in the last days of the Trump presidency.”

Iran has been referencing Trump’s last days a lot. They have repeatedly said that Israel is trying to draw Iran into a conflict in the final weeks of the Trump presidency.

Iran likes to play mind games with the West.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Morocco & Palestine

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Mohammed VI, King of Morocco, sent an official letter to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. In the letter the king wrote that Morocco stands behind the Palestinians and firmly supports a 2-state solution with Israel.
This is critical.

Morocco has begun to normalize relations with Israel, they have even instituted direct flights between the countries.

The purpose of the king’s letter to the Palestinians was to make it clear to Abbas and to all Palestinians and to the world that normalizing with Israel does not mean the end of support for the Palestinians.

The King of Morocco was explaining that they did not switch teams and can no longer be involved with the other side. The opposite. King Mohammed is saying that supporting both the 2-state solution and normalization with Israel is good for everyone.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Israel's 3rd Lockdown

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Israel will enter another 2-week total lockdown on Sunday.

The cabinet met Wednesday night and agreed that all schools will close with the exception of 1-4 grades, 11th & 12th grades and special education. School will be limited to 5 hours of class.

No one will be able to wander more than 100 meters, which is 110 yards, from their homes.

All businesses, except food services, must close. Food services may deliver. No dining in doors or outdoors.

Only essential workers may move about.

Gatherings are limited to 10 people indoors and 20 people outdoors.

Israel’s Corona Czar. Professor Ash, has said that 2 weeks will not be enough.
Corona virus numbers in Israel have been climbing and climbing. Over the last week they have doubled to 4,000 cases per day.

Shutting down has worked for Israel in the past -- this is their third shutdown since March.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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UN Condemns Israel 17 Times

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

As 2020 comes to an end, it behooves us to look at some numbers.
In 2020, the United Nations General Assembly voted to condemn Israel 17 times.

The entire rest of the world combined was condemned (only!) 6 times.

One of the condemnations against Israel was for a 2006 oil spill off the coast of Lebanon -during a war with Hezbollah.

The only relief in this preposterous state of affairs is that resolutions in the UN General Assembly have no authority - they are totally without practical power.

They do, however, give a clear indication of the way Israel is viewed by the rest of the world.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Israeli Elections in March

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s Knesset, their parliament, did not pass their budget. And that means that Israelis are heading to their fourth set of national elections in two years.

Elections are scheduled for March 23rd. The date falls almost on the eve of Passover.

It is too early to predict what will happen in 3 months - BUT - there are certain absolutes.

The Blue and White Party has imploded. The party, which had emerged as a mosaic trying to bring together the center left, splintered after the last election.
There is no way they will get together again.

Gideon Saar broke, once a prominent member of Netanyahu’s Likud Party, broke away from Likud and is forming a new, right-wing party. He wants to bring party members and voters with him which will, inevitably, draw traditional voters away from Netanyahu and the Likud.

Naftali Bennett, head of the Yamina Party, which means “the right” has staked out a position further to the right of Netanyahu and will draw many voters from
Netanyahu’s traditional base. Bennett began his campaign several months ago.
Voters who are frustrated by Netanyahu feel comfortable with Bennett. Voters who naturally lean right feel comfortable with Bennett. He is squeaky clean and that is a very attractive attribute in this era of political corruption.

A lot will happen in the coming months.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Huge Iran Hack of Israel

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Pay2Key is an Iranian hacker or hacking group - it is unclear. Individual or a group, they are highly skilled.

Pay2Key recently claimed that they hacked into Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI). They claim to have accessed one of the most secure facilities in the world.

Pay2Key published proof of their hack on their Darkwebsite, even including the name of the head of the IAI cyber division. Copies of secured documents were posted on their site.

How much damage was inflicted is unclear. The IAI says that no hack was detected.

If the hackers gained access only to files, they still have eyes on some of most sensitive material about Israel’s missiles and satellites, Israel’s present and future plans and importantly, Israel’s defense systems and intel.

If true, this was a huge hack.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Iran Now Likes Bolton

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Iran’s FARS media has run a large story singing the praises of John Bolton.

I, too, was stunned as I read the piece. John Bolton is a hawk on all issues - especially on the Iranian issue.

As President Trump’s National Security Advisor, Bolton was the most vociferous of all hawks, constantly suggesting strikes and aggressive responses to Iranian hostility. None of this was new behavior or thinking. Bolton has been consistent throughout his career.

And then he and President Trump had a parting of the ways. And John Bolton wrote a tell-all book. And now Iran is praising him.

The reason is clear. In praising John Bolton, Iran is criticizing Donald Trump.

There are rumors that President Trump wants to impose martial law. Bolton does not think that to be a good idea and made his comments public. Trump retorted, in a tweet, that Bolton is “one of the dumbest people in Washington.”

Iran has been running with the martial law story.

It proves Machiavelli’s axiom. “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Trump is Iran’s enemy + Trump and Bolton are enemies = Iran + Bolton = Friends.
Simple math.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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US Not Sharing Intel w Qatar

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Ever since Qatar sided with Iran, they have been on the outs in the Sunni Middle East.

And Qatar is also paying the price with Western democracies.
A report by the British Cornerstone Institute reports that the United States no longer shares intel with Qatar for fear that it will be shared with Iran. And neither do Great Britain or France.

What make this change in policy even more interesting is that Qatar still hosts US and British forces.

The Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar is the largest single military installation in the entire Middle East. One of the reasons it is so large is that the base hosts both US Airforce units and British Royal Air force units, and also serves as the very important Headquarters of US Central Command.

More evidence that Qatar has been distanced from the West is that they ran to Turkey and Iran to try to scuttle the deals other countries were making with Israel. Qatar, Turkey and Iran are consolidating their relationship in the hope that they can become a strong front against the deals with Israel, all of which were sponsored by the United States.

It is assumed that Qatar has told the United States that they may not attack Iran from their territory. If that is true, it clearly shows where Qatar stands on the world stage.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Russia Has a Plan

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Last week Russia’s ambassador to Israel said that Israel was the most destabilizing force in the region. He said that Israel was even more destabilizing that Iran.

This week Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called US policy in the Middle East “unconstructive.” He was responding to a comment made by Mike Pompeo that Russia’s Mid East policies are “destabilizing”.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had declared that: "Russia continues to threaten Mediterranean stability using a variety of techniques to spread disinformation, undermine national sovereignty, and sow chaos, conflict and division within countries throughout the region."

Lavrov response was: "The US practically bans all the countries in the region from cooperating with Russia, whether in the military or technical fields, as well as on any other issue."

Lavrov’s example was accurate. The US has imposed sanctions on the Turkish defense industry because Turkey imported Russian S-400 missile defense systems, which is incompatible with NATO systems and could compromise the Western world. Turkey has denied the claims, saying that it has no plans to integrate the Russian system into NATO.

Turkey’s comments are irrelevant. Their promise not to integrate or share NATO military information with Russia is empty and hard to believe.

But what is most distressing is this war of words between the United States and Russia.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Sudan Israel the True Relationship

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

A series of questions is emerging about the normalization deals between Israel and some Arab countries.

Like Sudan. Sudan has a nasty history of perpetrating terror and supporting terror.
They have a terrible human rights record. They have made some of the most extreme of anti-Israel statements.

Sudan has almost nothing to offer Israel. With that knowledge it was not surprising to hear Sudan’s foreign minister, Omar Qamar al-Din, being interviewed on Al-Hadath TV and saying that Sudan "agreed to avoid a state of war with the Hebrew state but we will not reach any other state."

As if that wasn’t enough, he went on to say that "there is no diplomatic representation, no Chamber of Commerce and no cooperation between Israeli and Sudanese universities or companies. There are military factors that work together as far as we know. I have no further information on this matter. Everything that concerns the promotion of relations with Israel in the future depends on there being an agreement or agreements, and any such agreement will be presented to the legislative council that will be formed soon."

Normalization is just normalization, normalization is not peace.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Iran's New Nuke Plan

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has just announced that they are planning to build two brand new nuclear facilities.

This announcement appears to be revenge for the assassination of the father of the Iranian nuclear weapons program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

These new sites will be up and running within five months. It could change the entire nuclear game.

The first site is a laboratory that will deal with uranium in metal form. It is a mechanism essential in the making of nuclear weapons. The lab will have a heavy water reactor that can accumulate plutonium in its spent fuel.

Richard Johnson, the Senior Director for Fuel Cycle and Verification at the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a nonprofit organization, expressed his concern over Iran’s plans when he said: “If either was to proceed, that would stand out as a major proliferation concern.”

This is serious issue for the world. Iran has said that they will shut the new facilities down only if the United States re-enters the famous JCPOA, aka, the Nuke Deal.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Iran's Oil Plan

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is planning to up their oil pumping production next year. As of the beginning of the Iranian year, which means March, Iranian leadership plans to increase production to 4.5 million barrels/day.

This will happen in two stages.

Stage One takes place right now and extends through the Biden inauguration.
First, Iran will increase their oil production to 2.6 million barrels per/day. In Stage Two they will double that to 4.5 million.

Impressive as those numbers sound, the real increase will be in increasing their oil input from their current production numbers to reach 2.6 million. According to Bloomberg News, Iran is now only producing 133,000 barrels/day.

This plan was presented, by Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, to the Iranian parliament on Saturday.

Oil is the most significant component of Iran’s economy. They need to pump their oil and to sell their oil. These past few years the Iranian economy has been crippled. It looks like it is on the mend.

As their economy improves, so will Iran’s threat and so will their nuclear program.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Benefits of Normalization

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

I get the question all the time: What does Israel gain from normalization deals with Arab nations? What benefits do the Arab and Muslim countries realize from these deals?

The obvious answer is peace. But while that is a significant reason, it is not really relevant right now. There was little chance of war because none of the countries that have now normalized with Israel, share borders with Israel. And there is only a slight chance that, because of the normalizations, either the international community or the United Nations will change their tone when it comes to Israel.

And so, the main reason, the most significant reason, these countries want to normalize with Israel is to use this new status as a military check against Iran.

Another reason, important but of slightly less importance, is that with normalization comes access to Israeli technology. All forms of Israeli technology – and that includes bio tech, medical tech, agricultural tech. It also includes solar energy technology and advancements and natural gas exports.

These countries want to ride the wave of Israeli security and hi-tech military advances.

Morocco, for example, now imports 90% of their energy. Israel can help them with solar energy and natural gas. And even before the normalization of ties announcement went public, Morocco had secretly purchased $48 million worth of drones from Israel.

The benefits for Israel, too, are numerous. Doors, formerly sealed shut and markets, once unavailable, are opening wide for Israel. Millions of investment dollars are pouring into Israeli tech.

Next in line look to be Oman and Indonesia.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Hamas Hacks Arabs

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The cyber branch of Hamas has been hacking Arabic-speaking targets in the Palestinian Authority, United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Turkey.

Hackers sent emails to Arabic readers with links to interesting stories about Arab countries normalizing relations with Israel. Imbedded in the links were viruses that enabled the hackers to access their targets computers, especially their history.

The question is: Why would Hamas want to monitor what Arabic readers were reading.

The answer is that Hamas wants to know what the Arab masses and what Arab world leadership is reading and what they are thinking regarding Israel.
In other words, they are worried that now that the many in the Arab world are warming up to Israel, they might be turning an even colder shoulder toward Hamas.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Norway Defnids Palestinians

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Norway’s Storting, the Norwegian Parliament, voted to slash aid to the Palestinians.
They cut $3.4 million in aid to the Palestinians.

Norway’s Progress Party lobbied and convinced the parliament that for years the Palestinians have been saying that they will change, or have already changed, their textbooks. And yet, in schools and in their textbooks, Palestinians glorify terror and terrorists and preach wiping Israel off the map and pushing the Jewish State into the sea.

"Norwegian taxpayers will not pay the monthly salary to terrorists,"
Norwegian lawmaker Himanshu Gulati, the deputy chair of Friends of Israel in the Storting, posted a statement on the FrP website. He wrote: “Norwegian taxpayers will not pay the monthly salary to terrorists … "When Norway provides aid to Palestine, the money goes into the same economy that is also used to pay prisoners 'salaries’ ".

If the PA continues to pay salaries to the families of Palestinian prisoners arrested, convicted and serving time in Israeli prisons, Gulati called for Norway to further cut their aid to the Palestinian Authority.

This is critical.

For decades Norway has been known as a friend of the Palestinians, often attacking Israel as unfair and as an aggressor. They attacked Israel because they believe that Israel is stronger than the PA and that Israel has the power to help the Palestinians.

But Norway will not tolerate anti-Semitism. Norway cannot be part of or sponsor anything that promotes anti-Semitism.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Russia: Israel More Destabilizing than Iran

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The Jerusalem Post ran a shocking interview with Russian Ambassador to Israel, Anatoly Viktorov.

Viktorov said that Israel was the most de-stabilizing factor in the Middle East … not Iran.

Israel’s Foreign Ministry called him in and dressed him down.

The Russian Ambassador to Israel called Israel an aggressor. He questioned Israel’s bombing of Iranian arm shipments to Hezbollah, even if the tunnels Israel discovered on the border were dug by Hezbollah.

There is no doubt that Moscow knew of and even prompted Viktorov’s comments. They also knew that he would be called in by the Foreign Ministry of Israel.

For Moscow, it was worth it all.

Moscow is realigning itself in the Middle East. It is shifting its own position in order to make Iran and Syrian and Turkey more comfortable.

Russia is responding to US involvement in the normalization of ties between Israel and several Arab nations.

Russia is siding with those who reject this US/Israel move.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Iran Sending More Oil to Venezuela

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Venezuela is suffering from a crippling shortage of oil. Considering that Venezuela is a member of OPEC and was once one of the world’s largest producers and supplier of oil and that Citco was once Chavez’ oil company – this is not a predicament anyone would have expected for Venezuela.

There are many reasons explaining why Venezuela is now in such dire straits. Most important is that the United States has made it clear that the Venezuelans have not been playing nicely when it comes to Foreign affairs. Nicolas Maduro has been a flamboyant and aggressive anti-US propagandist.

Venezuela needs help – and Iran is coming to their rescue. Iran, as we all know, is also in the diplomatic doghouse with the United States.

Iran has already sent oil tankers to Venezuela, I’ve written about that several times.

Now, they have launched a flotilla of 10 tankers headed to Venezuela to help further relieve the oil crisis.

Venezuela’s crisis will be eased, but the Iranian inspired crises in the Western world will be heightened.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Abu Dhabi to Open an Office in Israel

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

In September Abu Dhabi announced that they will open an investment office in Israel.

Today State-run Abu Dhabi Investment Office (ADIO) Director General, Tariq bin Hendi told a UAE-Israel conference in Dubai: "It's very exciting for us because we will have that office open in the next few weeks."
They will be opening their office in just a few days.

The excitement is palpable. Abu Dhabi has already made inquiries into investments and they have already setup meetings and lined up several projects in Israel. Israeli investment groups are working hand in hand with Abu Dhabi. These groups identify possible projects and propose them to investors.

We are talking about an injection of hundreds of millions of dollars if not billions of dollars of investments into Israel technology. Israeli tech and Abu Dhabi investment is a tremendous power.

These investments can potentially change the world. It is a marriage made in heaven.

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Saudi Prince Attacks Israel

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Recently Bahrain hosted The Bahrain Security Summit. Present was Israel’s Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi as well as many of the most important players in the Middle East.

Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal, who was the head of Saudi intelligence for more than two decades was there and he spoke. Al Faisal also served for decades as Saudi ambassador to the U.S. and Great Britain. Currently the prince is officially retired but his words carry tremendous weight in Saudi Arabia and he has the ear of the king.

Al Faisal launched a scathing attack on Israel and normalization. He said that there will be no normalization deals needed to help the Palestinians obtain their own independent state.

He described Israel as a "Western colonizing" power. He said Israel has "incarcerated (Palestinians) in concentration camps under the flimsiest of security accusations— young and old, women and men, who are rotting there without recourse to justice. They are demolishing homes as they wish and they assassinate whomever they want."

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Bad PA Investments

Micah D Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

$1.732 billion is a large sum of money. That sum is the difference between private Palestinian investments flowing out of Palestinian Authority areas and external investments flowing into PA areas.

In other words, people with money living in the Palestinian Authority are investing their money outside the Palestinian Authority. And of all those people who say that they care about the Palestinians are investing very little in the Palestinians. They are not putting their money where their mouths are.

These figures come from the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics.

Ghassan Halum, a Palestinian investor explained: “When people go abroad and invest, they usually intend to earn some capital and then return home, but they get used to a certain system and laws, in addition to facilities and privileges. When they return home, the corruption and complications needed to get things done shock them.”

This is not good news. It means that the Palestinian economy is losing billions of dollars annually.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Secret Mtg Btw Israel & Turkey

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Al Monitor, an Arab news outlet headquartered in London, reported that Turkey and Israel are secretly meeting in the hope of re-establishing diplomatic relations and returning their ambassadors. The ambassadors were recalled in 2018, after the United States moved its embassy to Jerusalem.

There is, of course, another motivation.

Under President Donald J. Trump, the United States was not interested in Turkey’s human rights violations and the problems that they were causing - which included teaming up with Russia and Iran in support of Syria.

Turkey has been a public attack dog against Israel.

But now Turkey expects that the Biden administration will not be as sympathetic to them and will not turn a blind eye to these issues.

Turkey believes that, if they warm up to Israel, they will curry favor with the new US administration and with the Biden inner circle.

Al Monitor reported that three meeting took place between Israel and Turkey. In at least one of those meeting, the heads of Turkish and Israeli intelligence were present.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Another Election in Israel

Micah D. Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

It looks like elections are on the horizon in Israel. Again.

Both Benny Gantz, the head of the Blue & White party, and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu of Likud, made announcements about elections on the same day. And their announcements were made only 15 minutes apart from each other.

Gantz wants elections. Bibi is saying hold on. They each have a personal agenda.
Elections are personal.

In the end, in the event of another election in Israel, both Gantz and Netanyahu will be big losers.

Gantz will never be able to bring together the broad base group that challenged Bibi in earlier elections. And Bibi is feeling a real threat from his right flank.
Gantz and Bibi aside, if there is a 4th election in Israel, the biggest losers will be the citizens of Israel.

Never a dull moment in Israel.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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UAE Blackballs 11 Muslim Countries

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Israel and the UAE are in high gear. Multiple airlines are flying back and forth.
ELAL has 16 flights from Israel to Dubai per week. And that’s just one of the airlines now connecting these two, now friendly, countries.

Israel and the United Arab Emirates have signed a visa-free program. There is no visa necessary for citizens of either country to fly to the other country.

But while Israelis can now travel to the UAE easily and visa-free, the visas of eleven Muslim countries, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Yemen, Syria, Libya, Iraq and Tunisia, have been yanked. They have been cancelled, rescinded.

This black-list is official policy. Why does this policy exist? The answer is, actually, pretty easy to understand.

Most of those eleven countries are havens for terror. Terror groups gather there and organize there.

The UAE is concerned that Israelis would be perfect targets for terror. So, the UAE has literally blocked all entry from countries that might plan, sponsor and perpetrate attacks against their Israeli guests.

If terror came to the UAE it would ruin not just their new relationship with Israel, it would destroy tourism, trade and business between the UAE and any other Western group planning on expanding their dealings in the UAE.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Iranian Nuke Head Assassinated

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the father of the Iran’s nuclear weapons program, was assassinated on Friday, November 27, 2020.

His name and picture were part of the nuclear archive that Israel smuggled out of Iran and which Bibi Netanyahu presented to the world. Israel place a photo of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh on a large screen and Netanyahu told everyone to remember that name.

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated while riding in a car. Witnesses describe an explosion and then some shots. Photos show gunshots through the front windshield on the driver’s side. There was significant blood on the street. First reports were that he was taken to the hospital and died there. More likely, he was pronounced dead there.

The policy of most highly trained assassination teams is to “confirm the kill”. That means that after the strike, if there is time and access, they will quickly approach the body and shoot the target in the head.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Qatar Stops Bahraini Ships

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Midday on Wednesday two Bahraini ships were returning home from a nearby war exercise in the Arabian Sea. As they passed through Qatari waters, the two Bahraini ships were stopped by three Qatari naval vessels who claimed that they were protecting their border and territorial waters.

In the end, the Bahrainis and their ships were let go and continued the rest of their short trip home.

Bahrain is ledging a complaint with the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

Both Bahrain and Qatar are members of the GCC which has an agreement that permits the vessels of member nations to safely traverse each other’s territorial waters.

In 2017 Bahrain, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt all severed ties with Qatar. Why? Because Qatar had aligned with Iran.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Israelis to Ethiopia to Fight Locust

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister has invited an Israeli team of locust experts to visit his country in order to help combat their worst locust plague in 75 years.

The team of four Israelis are on the ground in Ethiopia. They are using drones and spraying at night in order to stop the plague.

Dr Yoav Motro, a member of the team said: “It’s the worst it has been in 75 years. And a tropical cyclone that hit the eastern part of the region in the past few days will only make things more complex. One has to note these regions do not deal with locusts on a regular basis — which hampers their readiness and their resilience to it.”

The locust descend and literally destroy everything that grows. An entire year’s crop is lost - devoured. This is not just an issue of an industry being hurt or a crop being destroyed, it is about major food shortage.

Swarms of locust are destroying food in a region where food is desperately needed.

The Israeli team has studied locust and they have experience fighting them. If they were called in early enough, they will be successful in their mission. The locust need to be destroyed before they move on to their next location and destroy that area, too.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Bibi Meets Saudi Prince

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

With lightening-speed the media covered yesterday’s story of a secret meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

The Wall Street Journal broke the news. And then The New York Times followed up and reported that the Saudis denied the meeting.

Then the Israeli press confirmed that the meeting did happen and the Saudis finally offered confirmation.

Yes, Israel’s prime minster and the head of Israel’s Mossad flew to Riyad, Saudi Arabia to meet with Saudi leadership.

So, who leaked the meeting to the press?

In Israel, many people are pointing their fingers at the Office of the Prime Minister.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Iran's New Naval Ship

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has unveiled a brand-new naval ship that is 170 yards long. The ship is a “naval city capable of carrying ocean missions.” It can carry aircraft and drones and missiles.

Iranian State television reported that a "heavy, multi-purpose, and long-range warship capable of carrying all types of aircrafts, drones, missiles and radar systems" had been added to the Revolutionary Guards fleet. The Shahid Rudaki warship is a “mobile naval city capable of carrying ocean missions," state TV added.

The Revolutionary Guards navy commander, Ali Reza Tangsiri, told state TV that the warship would provide security for "maritime transportation lines, oil tankers, commercial and fishing fleets on the high seas."

The name given to this ship, the Shahid Rudaki, is profound. A shahid is a person who dies for a cause, a shahid is a martyr. Rudaki was the founder of modern Persian poetry and literature. He died in 941.

This Iranian naval vessel is the size of an aircraft carrier. Its purpose is to check the US aircraft carrier fleet stationed in the Persian Gulf.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Bibi Tells Biden About Iran

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minster Netanyahu spoke at the memorial for David Ben Gurion, Israel’s first prime minister.

He used the opportunity to explain and plead his case before US president-elect Joe Biden.

Netanyahu said “Do not return to the previous [Iran] nuclear deal. We must keep to an uncompromising policy to ensure that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons.”

Israel’s view of Iran’s nuclear program is no secret. And way before Trump assumed the US presidency, Israel was pushing the United States to step up pressure on Iran and to stop their nuclear program.

In fact, in great part, the tension between Obama and Netanyahu was on this very issue. During Obama’s tenure in office, Bibi Netanyahu took his argument directly to the US Congress and to the American people. He convinced them that the Iranian deal was dangerous.

David Ben Gurion would have approved of Netanyahu’s action then, just as he would have approved of what he did today. “Speaking truth to power!”

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Iran Sets Bombs on Israel's Border

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Israel dismantled three IEDs, Improvised Explosive Devices, on the Israeli side of “No Man’s Land on the border with Syria.
In other words, it was on the Israeli side of the border.

It should be absolutely clear that the purpose of the bombs was to kill as many Israeli soldiers as possible. They were certainly placed there by locals who know the area. Locals who were taught, advised and coached by Iranian elite forces.

Israel has announced that they have evidence that the Iranian Al Quds Force was responsible for the bombs. Actually, the IDF was even more specific.

The IDF said that unit 840 of the Al Quds Force was the group that made the bombs and helped the locals plant them along the border.

This is very important information.

Iranians positioned that close to Israel’s border is very dangerous.

Iranian involvement in local Syrian activity so close to Israel is causing Israel to consider new options to better protect their border.

Thankfully, for so many reasons, these IEDs were discovered and thankfully, safely dismantled.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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New Age US Foreign Policy

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Remember how happy you were when you discovered the words Product of Israel on Jaffa Oranges in the supermarket.

It was a great thrill to see Dead Sea products, Ahava products. Even when sick and picking up medicine from the pharmacy seeing Teva pharmaceuticals made me feel a little better.

History was made when US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visit Psagot, a winery which is situated just north of Jerusalem and near the Arab city of Ramallah. The area known as the West Bank.

It was a first. A first time ever visit by a US secretary of state and, more importantly, a first time declaration by the United States that products from the West Bank that enter the United States will be labeled “Made in Israel” or “Product of Israel”.

Pompeo said that this policy is “consistent with reality based foreign policy approach” of the US.

Palestinian leader Hanan Ashwari clearly rejected the move telling Reuters: "Pompeo is intoxicated by apartheid wine stolen from Palestinian land. It is opportunistic and self-serving, and it damages the chances for peace."

This is a last-minute change in policy which some might think can be easily reversed by a new administration. True, but not true.

Reversing this policy would be a big step and would cause huge blowback. It will cost a new administration a lot of political chits and will certainly create tension between the White House and Congress, not to mention with whichever government is in Jerusalem at the time.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Iran in a New Arms Race

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Now that the administration in the United States is changing, Iran is now laying out options for arms acquisitions.

In Iran’s eyes, the arms embargo is over.

Three countries are anxiously waiting to provide arms to Iran.
First is Russia, second is China and the third is Iran. Yes, Iran.

Iran is an arms manufacturer and with the opening of the embargo they will be able to build and even export weapons.

Because of Russia and China’s interests in supplying Iran with weapons, there is little doubt that an arms race will break out in the Middle East. Iran is going to expand vis a vis all forms of weapons – tanks, planes, boats, helicopters. That means that their Sunni competitors will also want to expand to keep their quantitative and qualitative edge.

While arms will be supplied to Iran by Russia and Iran, arms to the Sunni countries will be supplied by the US and other Western nations.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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PA to Resume Talks w Israel

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

On Tuesday November 17, the Palestinian Authority announced that they will resume interaction with Israel.

The announcement came after PA leadership received assurances from the Biden Administration that things will be different under the Biden Administration from what they were under the Trump Administration.

A Palestinian Authority official is quoted in the Jerusalem Post saying: “We have received many positive messages from the Biden team in the past few days ... We are looking forward to opening a new page with the Biden administration after the damage caused by the Trump administration.”

Israel’s Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, Maj.-Gen. Kamil Abu Rukun, had an official response to that statement:

“Israel has previously stated that the bilateral Israeli-Palestinian agreements continue to form the applicable legal framework governing the conduct of the parties. On financial and other matters.

“Therefore, in accordance with these agreements Israel continues to collect taxes for the Palestinian Authority. Unfortunately, it was the Palestinian Authority which decided not to receive those collected funds from Israel.”

Time will tell.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Iran Should Not Assume Biden Will Roll Over

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is waiting and watching, very curious to see what will happen in the Biden administration.

Iranian leadership is hoping for a total change of direction - back to the Iranian deal and diplomatic paths that will reopen the embargo on Iranian business. Their ideal scenario would be to lift sanctions on Iranian oil and to permit COVID medications to enter the country.

At this stage, I think Iran is too hopeful.

They should continue to wait and test the waters and then they should wait a little longer because things may not go their direction.

The US is well aware that Iran have been cheating, ending around the system.
And the US knows, too, that the Saudis and other Gulf states are wary of and advances toward Iran.

Many things have changed in the four years since Obama left office. The Trump Administration successfully highlighted the problems with the Iranian deal. The imperfections need to be resolved. And Biden’s advisers are well aware of this as well.

Iran is hurting economically and COVID-wise, that should be clear. They need the assistance of the United States. And that is an important tool that can and should be used as leverage to get more from Iran than what was in the original Accords.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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WHO Condemns Israel

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The World Health Organization (WHO), a sub-unit of the United Nations, spent their most recent meeting condemning Israel for health abuses against Palestinians and the Druze of the Golan Heights.

One would think they would address the crisis of COVID-19 as a pandemic.
Instead they attacked Israel for mistreating Palestinians by restricting treatment and access to treatment.

Representative after representative, speaker after speaker, stood and condemned Israel - repeating the exact same words. It was a four hour session that resulted in a resolution condemning Israel.

The vote was 78 in favor, 14 opposed with 32 abstentions and 56 countries absent.
Countries that voted against Israel, that condemned Israel, know better. France, Spain, Belgium, Switzerland, Ireland, Poland, Portugal, Japan, India, New Zealand, Luxembourg and Monaco, shame on you.

The entire notion is a total lie, a total fabrication. Israel has tried to help keep COVID contagion down in the Palestinian Authority. This sounds strange, but the best way to do that was by keeping many people from travelling. It helped.

Palestinians with COVID are in Israeli hospitals. It is the PA that shuns and even prevents their residents from going to Israeli hospitals. But a procedure is in place through which Palestinians enter Israeli hospitals.

Druze of the Golan are Israeli citizens. They are entitled to – and receive the same care every other citizen receives.

These are most of the countries that voted against the resolution: the United States, Britain, Australia, Brazil, Czech Republic, Germany, Honduras, Hungary, Israel, Slovenia, Cameroon, Swaziland and Micronesia.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Saudi King Speaks Against Iran

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Aziz seldom speaks publicly these days. The running of the kingdom is firmly in the hands of Crown Prince Salman.

On Thursday, the king addressed the Shura Council. This is the first time he has spoken since addressing the United Nations General Assembly in September. Both presentations were given with a safe video uplink.

The Shura Council is a consulting body that advises all branches of government in Saudi Arabia.

In this presentation the king addressed the issue of Iran. The Saudi leader views Iran as the threat. It was also his topic when speaking before the GA. He said that everyone needed to stand up to Iran.

"The kingdom stresses the dangers of Iran's regional project, its interference in other countries, its fostering of terrorism, its fanning the flames of sectarianism ... in its efforts to possess weapons of mass destruction.”

Expect that this issue will drive a wedge between the new US administration and the Sunni Gulf states. The promised policy of the incoming Biden Administration is to reach out to Iran. This is the opposite of the Saudi and Israeli objective which is to isolate Iran.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Saeb Erekat Buried in Jericho

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Saeb Erekat was buried in Jericho. I know the cemetery, it is a fitting resting place for this illustrious Palestinian, lined with desert date palms - an oasis.

Erekat was one of the most recognized figures in the Palestinian media world. He was 65 years old when he succumbed to COVID. His burial coincided with the 16th anniversary of Yasser Arafat’s death. Also fitting.

Erekat was Arafat’s most trusted English spokesman and chief negotiator. More than simply an insider, 16 years ago he was thought to be a potential successor to Arafat. But the position went to Mahmud Abbas and once again he was in the successor position, to one day take over the Palestinian reins, this time from Abbas.

I had many interactions with Erekat, mostly on air, at times in person. Erekat was a propagandist for Arafat and the PA, a propogandist par excellence.
Unfortunately, that led to some ridiculous comments, speculation and accusations.
Some were honest most were forced. He fought to justify the Palestinian cause - including terror attacks against Jews.

Erekat understood the media. He understood the role of the media and its importance, even if it meant engaging in total falsehoods, as long as the Palestinian story would be told. He knew that when you fall off the “front page” you become irrelevant.

And that is the misfortunate of the end of his life. These past few years the Palestinian issue has become less central. The once great legacy of Saeb Erekat was lost. His death is not headline news.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Iran is Emboldened

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is now flexing its muscles.

Iranian leadership knows that US President Elect Biden wants to return to making deals with Iran.

Should that happen, it would mean a significant weakening for the Sunni Gulf States. That’s because Donald Trump will no longer be there to protect them from Iran or to lend assistance, which was the plan.

So, Iran is now telling the Gulf States that now they are vulnerable and advising them that the best plan for them is to unite and join with Iran.

Javad Zarif, the Iranian Foreign Minister tweeted: A sincere message to our neighbors: Trump's gone in 70 days But we'll remain here forever Betting on outsiders to provide security is never a good gamble We extend our hand to our neighbors for dialog to resolve differences

He wrote his tweet in English and Arabic. The tweet was announced on websites and broadcast on all their media outlets. It was like a Mafia family offering peace. Or else.

Iran has become emboldened by the Biden victory. It’s a new diplomatic chess game. Now we wait and watch to see what counter moves are in the works.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Biden Mid East Policy

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

What will Joe Biden’s Middle East policy look like? – that is the question I am being asked non-stop.

There are certain givens. And there are many question marks.

The most obvious given is that Biden will, as he has said over and over again, return to the JCPOA, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or in lay terms, the “Iran Deal.”

It was no secret that the Saudis favored Trump over Biden. The Iran Deal was a
direct threat to Sunni hegemony. Expect tensions on that front.

Expect Biden’s administration to reopen the Palestinian Embassy in Washington, DC.

Expect them to restart aid to the Palestinian Authority - Kamala Harris has already made that promise.

Expect them to reach out and bring the PA back to the table based on the two-state solution.

Do not expect the US Embassy in Jerusalem to return to its former home in Tel Aviv. However, there will almost certainly be discussion about the United States withdrawing recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

Israel is in for a series of roller coaster rides.

Biden has a long and very positive history with Israel. There were several low points during the eight years of the Obama presidency, but in general (“B’Gadol” as Israelis like to say), Joe Biden is a friend of Israel.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Israel's Lessons for Tight Elections

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Israel learned some important lessons from tight elections. The United States can learn from Israel’s experience.

Over the 15-month period between December 2018 and March 2020, Israel held three very close elections.

The most important lessons learned from these close elections are: First, be patient and second, do not pay attention to either sides claim of victory.

Next, there are always mistakes and problems in counting. These blunders are usually few and the exception. But when they become systemic, that’s when it is important to watch. Pay attention only when the mistakes sway the election.

In the end, true numbers will emerge and the legitimate winner will be officially declared. Do not rush the announcement.

Respect the process. For the sake of democracy, it is worth the wait.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Not in US Interest to Push Saudis

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

I’ve mentioned this before – Saudi Arabia is not going to be the next country in the Middle East to normalize relations with Israel. Saudi Arabia is in line but certainly not at the front of the line.

There are many reasons. One reason is that the United States has been pressuring the Saudi Kingdom to normalize their power in the region.

Saudi power is based on their wealth and on the way they spread influence. They are contributors and sponsors. Even more significant is that they are the guardians of the Islamic holy sites in Mecca and Medina.

The Saudis have sway.

As open to the West as they appear to be, there is a significant group of leaders in Saudi Arabia – especially religious leadership, that is extremely conservative. They would have great difficulty with normalization with the Jewish State, especially public celebrations of the normalization with Israel.

The Saudi Kingdom functions by maintaining balance between Wahabi religious leadership and the royal family.

The Wahabis are a fiercely, fervently, religious subgroup of Sunni Islam. It is they who are responsible for religious life and education in Saudi Arabia. Normalization would wreck that balance.

We are not even going to discuss the Saudi human rights record and their attitude towards women.

While on the surface it would appear that Saudi Arabia is the prefect partner for normalization. That is simply incorrect at this stage. It is not in their interest or the interest of the US to push it.

Micah@MicahHalpern

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They Target & Murder Jews

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS claimed responsibility for the terror attack in Vienna, in the Jewish area, near the synagogue. 4 people were murdered, 14 were wounded and 7 of those wounded remain in serious and life-threatening conditions.

One of the terrorists, wearing a fake suicide vest, was killed on the spot.

With this attack ISIS struck at two of their highest value targets. Western Europe and Jews.

There should be no doubt in anyone’s mind that there are people - individuals and groups - who target Jews in order to murder them. These are not accidental attacks. These are not spontaneous strikes. They are planned, murderous operations to kill as many Jews and Europeans as possible.

What is so eerie is that this particular terror attack was perpetrated in November of 2020. Kristallnacht took place in November, 1938. Vienna is the city in which Hitler matured and galvanized his ideology of hatred and murder.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Bio-Convergence From Israel

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Israel is investing $100 million in “Bio-Convergence”.

That’s a big investment. And I bet that most people have no idea what it is.
Bio-Convergence is the overlap of biology, physics, computer science, mathematics, engineering, materials science and nanotechnology.

BC is a new form of Bio Tech. It is the marriage of all forms of science, engineering and math with medicine.

It uses all that knowledge and all those creative energies to find solutions to difficult issues that until now were not even close to being solved.

Utilizing collective wisdom from multiple disciplines is “Bio-Convergence”. It is the wave of the future for inventions and it is the future for investments.

Israel is on the cutting edge of this new phenomenon. And Israel is on both sides, on both teams - the development side and the investment side.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Russia Escorts Iranian Oil Tankers

 By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

In countries like Saudi Arabia official media offers a clue to understanding how the leadership us thinking and the direction in which the kingdom is moving.

Recently, official Saudi media has changed its tone about Israel and the normalization agreements.

Here is a quote from Saudi official Faisal Abbas that ran in the largest Saudi English language paper. Scolding Palestinian leadership he asks: “When will they learn that every time they turn away from the negotiating table, the pie only gets smaller?”

Faisal continues saying that the fault was “not all on one side” and that Israel also makes it difficult to reach a deal to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

That was one example of a changing Saudi attitude, here’s another.

For Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year, the Saudi Arab News Twitter site changed its logo to “Shannah Tovah”.

And another: official State media ran a three day special, an hour each day, interviewing Prince Bandar in which he criticized Palestinians and all those who have been critical of the Kingdom’s advances with Israel and other Gulf State’s normalization agreements.

All this would have been unheard of just months ago.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

Read my latest book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com