In Syria Both Sides are Evil

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Tuesday was one of those very bad days in Syria. It was a day that was extremely illustrative of what is happening on the ground and how complicated things are for Syrians.

Reading Western press coverage one get the impression that there are good guys and bad guys in Syria. Assad is bad - and he is. The rebels who oppose him are good - but they are not. There are no proverbial white hats and black hats in Syria. In Syria, they all wear black hats - or kafiyahs, if you will.

On Tuesday rebels kidnapped 21 UN international observers. They are holding them as ransom. The demands have yet to be made. This was not a mistaken kidnapping, it was a well planned and well executed operation.

On the same day, Tuesday, Assad's air force bombed the cities of Homs and Raqqa killing dozens of rebels and others and wounding countless numbers of Syrians.

What we learn from this sliver of conflict is that both sides in Syria do really evil things. Unfortunately, seldom are the rebels ever analyzed, no less covered in the media and if they are, it is only when they strike at Assad forces. Public decapitations - and there are many, are seldom ever reported.

Bashar Assad is a murderous thug ... but do not think that the alternative to Assad is any less cruel and ruthless. Mainstream, opposition rebels in Syria are, if not full blown al Qaeda operatives, at least affiliated with and in sync with al Qaeda.

The West must think hard before offering help in Syria.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com

US General Says Sanctions Don't Work

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

General James Mattis testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday. Mattis is head of US Central Command, he is the most important US military person in the Middle East.

In brief James Mattis testified that Western diplomatic efforts and sanctions against Iran have not had the desired impact. The sanctions have not, he said, brought Iran to its knees.

Actually Iran is continuing its traditional role of denial and of obstructing international agency inspections at their nuclear facilities. And Iran continues to enrich uranium far beyond the needs of any peaceful and/or scientific demands.

Mattis did say that the United States still has the ability to bring Iran to its knees. He even suggested that the US still has several additional, untried, tools to use against Iran that do not include a full military strike.

The testimony of Mattis made it clear that Iran is using diplomacy to their own advantage. The Iranians are delaying the West from moving seriously against them thereby giving themselves permission to continue with their enrichment plans.

I hope that this was not news to the Senate committee.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com

Israel Warns Syria

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Israel is starting to set the stage for another strike against Syria.

Over the past few days Syrian shells have fallen into Israel. Now both the Israeli representative to the UN and the Israeli prime minister have gone on the record saying that the conflict in Syrian cannot spill over into Israel.

Ron Prosor, Israel's ambassador the United Nations, delivered a letter to the Security Council and all 15 members. The letter describes how the conflict in Syria is resulting in rockets landing in Israel. The important part of the letter is that Israel reserves the right to respond.

From Israel's point of view, "response" is not necessarily simply a hit back at the place that launched the missile. Israel reserves the right to respond and attack the source of the conflict.

That could mean striking Assad sources or rebel bases. It gives the Israelis carte blanche to hit anywhere and anything in Syria.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com

Locust Plague in Egypt

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt has been plagued by locust over the past few days. The video is eerie, evoking images of Moses and ancient Egypt.

Swarms of black locust drop like clouds, falling on crops devouring them. They bounce off cars. It is Biblical.

Israel is concerned that Egypt is not doing enough to eradicate the locust. There is a significant danger that the locust will make their way to Israel, so Israel has begun to take precautions. Hotlines are up for anyone who sees the swarms. Major pesticides are in full stock.

But what the Israelis will inevitably do is dig huge ditches on their border with Egypt at the anticipated crossing points. The trenches must be equipped with kerosene. When the locust come, the Israelis will light the trenches.

Because locust fly low, their wings will be singed by the heat of the fire and they will fall in the ditches.
This is one problem that Egypt did not need right now.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com

Kerry in the Middle East

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The new US Secretary of State is on a whirlwind trip and his focus is the Middle East.
 
John Kerry has an agenda. He pledged to give the Syrian rebels $60 million, but that will exclusively be in the form of food and medical aid. $60 million is a drop in the bucket and food and medicines are not what the rebels need.

The rebels were at least hoping for night vision goggles and protective armor, which they are now lobbying to get from England.

The United States cannot give material aid to the rebels even if they are vetted because the chance are just too high that all that aid will then go to al Qaeda or al Qaeda affiliated groups.

Today Kerry is in Egypt trying to urge the Egyptians to conform to the IMF request to enable billions of dollars of international aid.

Kerry is also urging that they find a national consensus around which to rally and put aside their inner conflicts. And it should be no surprise that Kerry and the Egyptians spoke about Syria.

Kerry wants to prove that he and the United States can help stabilize the Middle East. But to do that, he has to be more convincing. As of now there has been no real affirmation that the Middle East has any faith in the US point of view or even wants their involvement.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com

Oil Prices Fell Due To The Sequester

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Oil prices dropped yesterday.

The price of oil per barrel dropped to $90. The most significant reason for the fall is the all powerful sequester.

Because of potential cuts across the board, the entire economy is in jeopardy of a free fall. As a result - oil process dropped. Add to that the slowdown in all markets across all spectra in China and you have price changes.

The world economy is elastic, it is very responsive to changes. And oil prices are extremely responsive to US consumption.

The US is the largest consumer of oil in the world consuming 19, 150,000 barrels per day. This is far more than the EU, which is the second largest consumer, at 13 million barrels per day. All total the EU and the US compose 33% of the world's oil. This proves just how important the US economic conditions are to the global price of oil.

We heard about the sequester for weeks and not a single person spoke about consequences other than the layoffs and the cutbacks.

Oil. Sequester. Expect a huge global impact.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com

Talks w/ Iran

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The meetings between the six Western countries and Iran have finished and Iran is satisfied. These were the first real discussions since June and they took place in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

To quote Iran's chief negotiator Saeed Jalili: the Westerns tried to "get closer to our viewpoint."

The West offered Iran an easing of sanctions if they stop enriching uranium at Fordo. From reports, the message from the West was less strident but it was the same message: Stop enriching uranium.

Iran has said that they are willing to talk and negotiate. And they agreed to another meeting in April. But Iran said that talks and negotiations are not capitulations - talks do not mean that Iran must agree with everything the West demands.

So Saeed Jalilli was pleased and intimated that there was real hope. But hope for Iran is a softening of the West's position. It is a major softening in terms of rhetoric.

Iran is correct - negotiations cannot be a fait accompli. But the US should have adopted a nicer tone years ago - now is the time for firmness.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com