Egypt Shuts Tunnels

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday Egypt destroyed eight tunnels running between Gaza and Egypt in the area of Rafah. The tunnels are used for smuggling everything from weapons to construction materials.

The Palestinian news agency Ma'an reported that the Egyptians also arrested 24 people who worked in the tunnels and in a warehouse which housed explosives and other weapons. The warehouse was in the Northern Sinai, abutting the Gaza Strip.

Egypt has increased their vigilance in trying to shut down the tunnels and the movement of weapons and explosives in and out of Gaza. Those weapons and people often take up arms with the Muslim Brotherhood and attack Egyptian targets.

There has been a huge recent increase of attacks in Sinai and the Egyptians have received special permission to abrogate their peace treaty with Israel and bring their own military into the Sinai. The Peace Accords between Egypt and Israel very clearly specify that Egypt may not militarize the Sinai, but in this case the Egyptians need to bring in the army to prevent a terrorist takeover. Israel understands and agrees.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Golan on Alert

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

There was a recent report of footprints crossing the border in the Golan Heights.

The entire area went into alert to find potential terrorist infiltrators.

In the 1970's and 80's this used to happen more often, it was a common occurrence. Sometimes the tracks were cows in search of pasture. Sometimes a terrorist sat on top of the cattle. Sometimes the footsteps belonged to drug suppliers coming from Syria and Lebanon into Israel.

This was a real set of tracks crossing from Syria into Israel. And with increased al Qaeda involvement in Syria, Israel takes these tracks very seriously.

There is no doubt that the conflict in Syria has destabilized the region. There has been spill over into Lebanon, into Iraq, into Jordan and into Turkey. It will spill over into Israel - it is just a matter of time.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Palestinians Can't Accept Jewish State

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Talks between US Secretary of State John Kerry and the Palestinians were extremely tough both yesterday and today.

Reports from the meetings are that strong words were exchanged about the issue of recognizing Israel as a Jewish State.

This is a fundamental demand by Israel.

Netanyahu raised the issue several years ago as a simple test to prove that the Palestinians really did not recognize Israel. At that time, when the Israeli prime minister told the White House of his expectation the White House responded that it was a “no brainer,” they said of course the Palestinians recognize you as a Jewish State.

But not so.

The Palestinians have a revulsion to accepting the Jewish State. They claim that they recognize Israel as whatever state it wants to be. They have already said that. The type of state, they say, is an internal issue.

This really is not a "no brainer." The acceptance of Israel as a Jewish State strikes, on many levels, at the raison d'etre of the vision of Palestinian nationalism. It means that the Palestinians must accept the two-state solution for the long term and not plan for an eventual demographic gobbling up of Israel.

So why can't the Palestinians just lie, why can't they just say what they need to say now and act like they always have been acting?

Because Palestinian leadership cannot make a public proclamation accepting the Jewish State without losing face at home and across the Arab world.

Recognizing the Jewish State means recognizing Zionism and that would rip at the very narrative that the Palestinians created and would justify Israel's right to be on the land. It would justify their oppression.

They should accept it - but they cannot.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Watch How Arabs Treat Arabs

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Paying attention to how Arabs relate to other Arabs can be instructive.

Tunisia is sponsoring an Anti-Zionism Conference. Not unusual.
Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad were prevented from entering. Unusual.

Al Mayadeen, a Hezbollah TV network in Lebanon, reported today that the Hezbollah delegation was not permitted to enter the hall where the Anti-Zionism conference was taking place.

And the Islamic Jihad group was prevented from landing in Tunis.
The story was picked up by several other media outlets.

Why were Hezbollah and barred? The answer is simple.

Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad of Lebanon have sided with Assad and with Iran. And that makes them pariahs in the Arab world - even when it comes to the hatred of Zionism.

Now that is interesting.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Yr of Jewish Strength Says Egypt Astrologer

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Astrology is the craze in many parts of the world - like in Egypt, where people believe that the future can be seen in the alignment of the stars and constellations.

Sayyed al Shimi, one of Egypt's most popular astrologers, appeared on Egyptian national television as part of a year-end round-up for 2013 and to offer predictions for 2014.

During his prediction segment al Shimi warned that in 2014 the Jews will "grow stronger." He explained that it is a historical reality that in the past, when the stars have been in just such an alignment, the Jews have been greatly successful.

"We discovered that Saturn entered the fire sign of Sagittarius when the first World Zionist Congress convened. The Balfour Declaration was released when Saturn was in the fire sign of Leo. The Haganah Brigades [the pre-1948 Jewish defense force] began organizing and helping the English in 1928, when Saturn was in the fire sign of Sagittarius. The 1948 war took place when Saturn was in the fire sign of Leo. The 1956 war took place when Saturn was in the fire sign of Sagittarius. The 1967 War took place when Saturn was in the fire sign of Aries."

"Between 1963 and1967 my late father warned in his annual reports:
'Beware, Saturn will enter the sign of Aries in 1967 and this means that the Jews will grow stronger, just like in 1956 and in 1948.' 'Beware,' he said, 'something is about to happen.' But they refused to believe him."
Personally, I would never argue with the stars. And I am glad that even the Egyptians see that Israel and the Jews are powerful and will be even more powerful. Let them continue to believe that 2014 will be a year of Jewish great strength.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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2 State Solution

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

A new study about a Two State Solution was just released. The results of the study should surprise all those who think that the two-state-solution is dead in the water.

The study certainly surprised me. For two years now I have been saying that there is no will on either the Israeli or the Palestinians side for a two-state-solution, that each side is content to live with the current status quo.

Then comes this study which says that 63% of Israelis and 53% of Palestinians answered favorably to questions supporting a two-state-solution. The numbers dropped by 10% in both communities after details were added to the questions, especially details about settlements.

Each community was polled by pollsters from their own community.

Israelis were polled by the Hebrew University who asked 601 people and had a 4.5% degree of error. Palestinians were polled by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research who asked 1270 people and their margin of error was 3.0%

Granted, this is not a ringing endorsement for the two-state-solution, but neither is it a total rejection of the proposal.

Several significant sectors within the Israeli government are on record rejecting the two-state-solution. In addition, it is pretty clear that Palestinian leaders have never embraced the idea. And for the past two years we have been under the assumption that the masses on both sides had no faith in having a two-state-solution.

This study shows us that even now, or perhaps, especially now there is a critical mass of over 50% of Israelis and of Palestinians that can be used to sway the process if a good deal emerges from the Kerry talks.

That's leverage.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Kerry Back to Push Both Sides

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State John Kerry will be returning to the Middle East on Thursday. He will meet with both the Israelis and the Palestinians.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas revealed his strategy for the Kerry meeting when he welcomed back the Palestinian prisoners recently released from Israeli prison. Abbas made the point that his main objective is to secure the release of all prisoners.

Abbas said "this won't be the last time that prisoners are freed," and "there won't be a final agreement with Israel until all the prisoners are released."

The Palestinian leader was also very clear about his take on the Jordan River Valley. Abbas said "this is our land, and it will remain that way. This a red line on our part."

Abbas will secure his legacy in Palestinian history by forcing Israel to release prisoners. The Jordan Valley is actually less about the land than it is about the border. For Abbas and the Palestinians it is a practical issue, they are concerned about securing a border with Jordan.

Kerry will have his work cut out for him.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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