US - Iran - Russia Conflict

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

There are some rather out of the ordinary interactions happening of late between Iran, the United States and Russia.

The United States is deeply concerned about an oil for goods barter involving Iran and Russia. The deal would allow for a $1.5 billion monthly swap.

According to the White House, US Secretary of State John Kerry shared the US concern directly with his colleague, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, on Monday when the two were in Paris working out the details of a conference on Syria which is scheduled to take place on January 22.

The biggest worry is that this barter could be considered a violation of the P5+1 agreement with Iran. If it is, it could trigger new US sanctions against Iran, sanctions that Congress has already prepared - just in case of a scenario like this.

If this barter deal goes through, everything everybody has been working so hard for could just fall apart. But Kerry is hopeful.

Kerry is also generous. He gave Lavrov a special present in a modest size box yesterday. It was a box of 2 Idaho potatoes. While speaking during the break Lavrov mentioned his love of the Idaho potatoes, so Kerry gave him a few.

We are told that there is no symbolism there. No symbolism at all. I do not care if this is or there isn't, but if there is - I don't see it.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Assad Visits Mosque

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past 3 years, since the fighting in Syria began, President Bashar Assad has ventured out in public only a handful of times.

There was always an important reason for the public appearances.

Often, they included a trip to a mosque. But the real purpose of appearing in public is to say that I am still in Damascus and I am the man in charge. Assad needs everyone, allies and enemies alike, to know that the conflict did not shake him.

So yesterday, on Sunday, Assad went to prayers at the al Hamad Mosque in northwest Damascus. The trip was broadcast across the Arab world, most especially on Syrian state-sponsored TV.

To all appearances Assad went to the al Hamad Mosque to celebrate the traditional birthday of Mohammed. In reality Assad was saying that the end is in sight, that the rebels have crumbled and that the country is getting quieter.

Assad was saying that although there are still areas withering away by virtue of violence, the conflict will soon be over. He was saying that the rebels are fighting amongst themselves and his supporters and troops will soon secure the entire country. And even though a few pockets of rebels may continue to exist in Syria, the country is his to once again preside over. Totally and completely.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Egypt Votes This Week

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

I'll bet almost nobody knows that last Thursday, Egyptian expats living all over the world were able to vote on the new proposed Egyptian constitution.

And on January 14 and 15 the entire country of Egypt will vote on the constitution as a referendum.

While it is undeniable that there have been violent clashes recently in Egypt and it is true that the Muslim Brotherhood has been outlawed in Egypt, strange as it may seem, all of it has been done in the name of democracy. Democracy must prevent non-democratic forces from taking over which is exactly what happened when Morsi was elected - and Egyptian leaders today are determined to see democracy thrive in their country.

The proposed constitution is called a draft charter. It uses moderate Islam as a foundation for legislation.
Interim President Adly Mansour has been on national Egyptian radio and television urging people to come out and vote for the referendum and to "lead the ship of the nation to the shores of safety."

An Arab country like Egypt needs to have a constitution and that constitution needs to be loosely based on Islamic tradition. Egypt cannot be a secular society, it must try to marry the valued and essential traditions of Islam with modern democratic rights.

Sounds easy ... but turning theory into a reality will be very difficult, especially as Islamic tradition confronts modern human rights.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Ariel Sharon Is Dead

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Ariel Sharon is dead.

Since his stroke in 2006 the former prime minister of Israel has been nonresponsive. Even though he has been gone for nearly eight years, now is the time when Israel and the world must say their final goodbyes.

Everyone had an opinion about Ariel Sharon. No one was indifferent about him. You either liked him or hated him - nationally and internationally. To Sharon it made no difference, his actions and decisions were based on his own convictions, not a desire to either please or to enrage others.

Ariel Sharon was a great warrior and he was a great politician.

Seldom are politicians so simple and so direct, Sharon was different because Sharon approached politics like he approached war.

Sharon was very easy to understand. His priorities were simple and clear on every level. He never minced words. He was a pragmatist.

He achieved his goals by placing them in priority order and then attacking them one by one.
Most of all, Ariel Sharon was a master tactician - in that arena, he was truly unparalleled.

The overarching goal of Ariel Sharon at every level - prime minister, defense minister, member of Knesset, author, private citizen, land owner and farmer - was the protection of Israel.

The word of Sharon was his promise, and yet, he was a man of action, not words. Part of his appeal for the Israeli public was that people believed that Ariel Sharon would deliver on his word. And he did.

Surely there was much controversy in his life and surrounding his career and I do not know how history will treat Ariel Sharon. But I do know that the world, not just Israel, not just the Middle East, the world has lost a great man, a true hero. May his memory be blessed.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Iranians In the IDF

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

It is not rocket science but it is very important - and Israel is trying its best to take advantage and make the most of it.

What am I talking about? Here it is: BaMachaneh, the IDF magazine, printed a story that is not only very interesting, but also very unusual for them. The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) never releases figures, but here they did.

According to the magazine each year fifty Iranian-born Israeli boys enter the army. The army is trying to move these soldiers into intelligence units and keep them "in" as long as possible. The article also reports that 23% of Iranian-Israeli girls join the army and within that group, 33% of the girls join intelligence units. That is an astounding number and it is even higher than the statistic for the males which is about 20%.

Every year about 100 Iranians arrive in Israel. They all arrive via a third country.

The upside is that these young people have language and familiarity with Iran which is unequaled. The downside is that they are young and have never been trained in how to really see and analyze raw data. For that, they need to be trained from scratch.

This Iranian intelligence force in Israel is a very powerful weapon. There is almost no chance that any of these young men and women are double agents. The Iranian Jewish community is too small and there is no amount of money that would tempt an Iranian Jew to betray his Jewish family.

Israeli intelligence is ions above other countries because of this very valuable human asset.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Arabs Do Not Want to Join the PA

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

They used to be called Israeli Arabs. Then they became Palestinians living in Israel and sometimes they were called Palestinians with privileges. Now they are just called Palestinians.

All these names refer to Palestinians who are also Israeli citizens.

The topic has emerged again as peace discussions dealing with land swaps come up for negotiation. The idea is that certain places on the Israeli side of the '67 border will be swapped for certain places of on the Palestinian side of the border.

Recently Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman suggested that the Wadi Ara area which is the area of Um al Fahm also known as the triangle would be the perfect place to swap.

The entire area is Arab and it abuts the West Bank. The area gained notoriety as a major center of Naqba protests against Israel. Naqba means the tragedy corresponding to Israel's Independence in May of 1948.

And yet, all those residents of Wadi Ara who have been interviewed absolutely reject any idea of living under the Palestinian Authority.

They do not want to exchange freedom for corruption.
They do not want to give up their Israeli privileges - especially health care, education and accountability, law and safety.

They do not want to give up all that is taken as a given in Israel and will most certainly be lost in the Palestinian Authority. They want to continue living in Israel and reside under Israeli law.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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UN Doesn't Count Victims In Syria

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

There are signs of change that we look at to determine if solutions are on the horizon.

The Geneva Conference about Syria is one of those signs, it is a good sign. The disagreement between the United States and Iran as to how involved Iran should be in any resolution undertaken at that conference is another good sign. And the fact that Iran and the US both recognize that they are confronting similar Sunni radical movements is a third good sign.

A bad sign, in fact a very bad sign, is that the United Nations Commission for Human Rights has officially announced that they are no longer keeping track of the victims of the Syrian crisis. They stopped totaling the figures in July, when the number of victims hit the 100,000 mark.

Rupert Colville, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, explained that they just cannot verify the sources and so, they cannot even speculate on the numbers. Until they stopped tallying, the Commission based their estimation on six different sources and reports that were made available to them.

But all of the sources were biased - it was always a guessing game.

The problem with not even trying to determine the number of victims in the Syrian crisis is the message that is being sent out. The message is that the numbers do not count and once the numbers do not count the lives do not count. And for a crisis like the conflict overtaking Syria --- that is the wrong message.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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