Syria Thought it Was Israel's F-4

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Syria shot down a Turkish F-4 Phantom fighter jet last Friday. The incident ignited an already tense relationship between two countries that share a 900 mile border.

Turkey has said that in 2012, Syrian helicopters crossed into Turkish air space five times. From now on, they say, Syrian aircraft in their air space will be considered hostile and not simply pilot error.

But yesterday, Syria came up with and an interesting excuse. The Syrians are saying that their investigation suggests that the people manning their anti-aircraft battery assumed that the F-4 was Israeli - not Turkish - and that explains why the plane was targeted and downed.

The F-4 is an American plane and the Israeli air force is almost all American fighter jets. But since 2008 Israel has not flown the F-4. Now the Israeli air force almost exclusively flies F-15 & F-16.

Back in 2000 Israel still had about 100 F-4's but in today's competitive aerial fighting environment the F-4 cannot hold its own.

Syria made a huge error. Nice try at covering it up, but not at all even plausible. Bad intel and worse training.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com

Israeli Cherries in Iran

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Wild and preposterous reports circulated throughout Iran yesterday. And then the impossible was confirmed.
Cherries sold in the markets of Iran were imported from ---- Israel.

How is that possible? There are no trade deals between Israel and Iran. There is no relationship between Israel and Iran. And yet - it has happened before. This is not the first time Iranians have tasted from the forbidden fruit of the Promised Land.

The cherries arrived through a third party. They were exported from Israel to a vendor and when Iran wanted cherries, these are the cherries that were sent.

It happened with Israeli oranges in 2009. Unlike the cherries, the oranges came wrapped and stamped with the words "Produce of Israel." In the case of the cherries, they probably arrived in a crate labeled "Product of Israel."

They were sweet cherries when they left Israel, I hope they didn't leave a sour taste in the mouths of Iranians.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
 

Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com

Egypt Politics or Rhetoric

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

CNN reported yesterday that new Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi intends to appoint a woman and a Christian as deputy presidents.

This is a welcome message to the West and acts to allay the fear that Morsi represents the Muslim Brotherhood movement which has repeatedly articulated anti-women and anti-Christian points of view.

Those points of view have been articulated by Morsi, as well, but that was before he won the election.

It is not clear whether the new president will actually appoint a woman and/or a Christian or if he is simply changing his stance on women and Christians. But saying what he did was the right thing to say and to the right audience.

The official stance of the Muslim Brotherhood is that women should not be part of politics - period. They have been the bulwark behind violence against Christians and have been behind attacks against Christian churches. Morsi himself has never condemned any attack on Christians.

So how much of this is just political rhetoric - we will know soon enough.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com

Oil Under $80 Best Weapon Against Iran

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Oil closed below $80 per barrel yesterday. That is great news for proponents of sanctions and pressure against Iran. In February, oil was $110 a barrel.

As of July 1st the European Union will implement a total ban on Iranian oil.

Earlier this year Iran was producing 3.5 million barrels per day.
Since the pressure began building, that number has fallen to 3.1 million.

It is doubtful that Iranian oil production will fall much below this. Until now, as one country shifted its oil supply away from Iran, another shifted to Iran in an almost seamless transition. China and Japan alone account for 20% of Iran's oil and if anything - they both need and want more.
Iran has been preparing for this day.

The Europeans might shut their valves but the valves of China and Japan are open wide. Indian and South Korea have received exemptions from the United States allowing them to import Iranian oil - and that is exactly what they are planning to do.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com

Hamas & Fatah At Odds Over Egypt Pres

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

As soon as it was announced that Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi won the presidential election in Egypt the calls of congratulations came pouring in.

The United States, England and Turkey are among the many nations that offered standard, diplomatically imbued, blessings.

The interesting messages are those delivered by the so-called "friends" of Egypt.
Hamas: the win is "a historic moment and a new era in the history of Egypt." It is a "defeat for the program of normalization and security cooperation with the enemy (Israel)."

Fatah: "We congratulate Doctor Mohamed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, on his win in the Egyptian presidential elections, and his election as president of Egypt."

You don't even have to read between the lines, it is all spelled out clearly in word and in tone: Hamas sees eye to eye with the Muslim Brotherhood and Fatah would have preferred the secular candidate.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com

Ahmadinejad in Venezuela

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Ahmadinejad is in Venezuela again.

An official Venezuelan newspaper ran a story, timed for this visit of the Iranian leader, recalling that during his visit to Venezuela in 2006, the Venezuelans gave Iran an F-16 fighter jet.

The jet came from a batch of twenty-three F-16 jests that the United States had sold to Venezuela in 1983. According to the report the F-16 was disassembled and loaded on to an air force 707 and flown to Iran where it was reassembled.

The obvious purpose in giving the plane was to allow Iran to calibrate their air defense systems. The United States and the Israelis use F-16s.

The US and Israel are aware of this transfer and know that more than half of the original F-16s have been sold to other countries - all for the same reason.

The upside it that the F-16 of 1983 barely resembles current F-16s and that Israel has gussied up their versions with their own electronics.

If Iran is basing their air defense system on the level of 1983 F-16s, they have to make serous estimates about the current capabilities of the F-16. That is serious guesswork.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com

Clinton Finally Gets Iran

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

I was very impressed when I read the transcript of the conversation between Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and former Secretary of State James Baker, moderated by Charlie Rose.

Four years later, on the issue of Iran, Clinton showed a real understanding of the nuanced and complicated nature of the country and of how decisions are made there. Four years later, she almost gets it.

She explained that there is serious debate inside high levels of leadership within Iran.
She explained that there is a significant part of Iranian leadership that actually wants to be attacked because of the benefits that would emerge after a Western or Israeli attack.

She explained that there are those who know that the Iranian economy could be galloping ahead if only the Iranians backed down - and that backing down is not that big a step considering the benefits that would be reaped.

About all this, Secretary of State Clinton is correct.

Missing from her analysis is the machismo and ego aspect of the equation.
Granted, backing down is simple for some - but for Iran it is nearly impossible. Because the issue and the conflict have become so public, backing down would be tantamount to public humiliation.

The United States may not care much about that part of the equation, but for Iran, it is a really big deal - or in this case, a really big deal breaker.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click.
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah

To reprint my essays contact sales (at) www.featurewell.com