Lebanese TV Lampoons Nasrallah

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

As I think back over the past 12 months I find that one of the funniest and at the same time one of the boldest moves in the Middle East was made by LBC, the Lebanese Broadcasting Company, a private network that broadcasts from Beirut.

Every Friday night LBC airs a regular comedy show that pokes fun at the situation in Lebanon and the whole Middle East. Most of their comedy is simple imitation and role playing. The name of the Friday night show is in itself a play on words. It is called Bas Mat Watan which means the Homeland's Laughter, but it sounds very similar to Bas Met Watan which means the homeland is dying.

One particular episode in November depicted Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. It was a hilarious lampoon of the Shiites radical cleric. Nothing of this kind had performed on air since 2006 and undertaking this parody took a great deal of courage - even in free thinking Lebanon. People have been assassinated for much less.

The show caused riots and a huge tidal wave of activity on twitter.
Some said that it was inappropriate to mock a cleric. Supporters of the show said that Nasrallah was fair game because he was a political figure and was no different from any other politician they lampoon. Besides, supporters said, this program impersonates religious leaders all the time.

Until November LBC was too afraid of the repercussions to touch Nasrallah. The reason they felt enabled to rake him over the proverbial coals of television comedy is that as the conflict spilled over into Lebanon and more Lebanese lives were lost, they finally felt comfortable challenging Hezbollah's involvement in Syria and its impact on Lebanon.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Iran Passed a Pro Nuke Bill

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
The Iranian parliament just passed a bill for which over two-thirds of the members voted in favor of catapulting their nuclear development if the US Congress passes any new boycott legislation.

The Iranian press is filled with coverage of the dramatic change of heart in Iran. Since the last time they were asked, there has been a 100% shift in the Iranian parliament.

This Iranian bill will permit uranium enrichment to 60% and even 90%, whereas the agreement caps it at 20%. In addition, the bill allows for the heavy water nuclear plant at Arak to continue to be built.

The legislation the Iranians are concerned about is referred to as "Standby Sanctions" in the corridors of power in Washington DC. Congress wants the sanctions bills in place to allow them the ability to act quickly if the six month interim deal with Iran falls through.

Iran is setting up a counter move. They are saying if you pass a bill we will pass a bill that trumps your bill.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Saudis Give Lebanon $3 Billion

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Saudi Arabia just gave Lebanon a $3 billion grant to bolster their army.

Lebanese President Michel Suleiman announced the aid on Sunday TV. "The king of the brotherly Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is offering this generous and appreciated aid of $3 billion to the Lebanese army to strengthen its capabilities."

The obvious purpose of the money is to counter the enormous support that Iran gives to Hezbollah in Lebanon. That support has a huge impact on everything that happens in Syria.

If the Saudis successfully strengthen the Lebanese army it can influence the facts on the ground in Lebanon, in Syria and even - by extension, Israel. A stronger army in Lebanon will also, hopefully, prevent the violence overtaking Syria from spilling over into Lebanon.

The biggest however, is that giving money and buying better and bigger weapons does not necessarily make for a better army.

Hezbollah is disciplined and well trained. They are also well armed. Unless the Lebanese army is better trained and better motivated than Hezbollah, there is a strong possibility that  Hezbollah will capture many of the new weapons that Saudi Arabia will be giving to Lebanon.

If that happens the $3 billion gift will turn into one explosive backfire.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Iran is a Complicated Game

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Just look at how complicated the Iranian issue is.

On Monday talks will resume between Iran and the P5+1 in Geneva.

The talks were put on hold for Christmas. People are hopeful.

Yesterday Iran called for direct talks between the United States and Iran to try and start a new era, a new relationship.

But --- also yesterday ---

The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, said that Iran is producing a new generation of centrifuges "and another round of tests will be made before proceeding to mass production."
Salehi said that Iran now has 19,000 centrifuges and is "able to produce its own nuclear fuel."

Spokesman for the agency, Behrouz Kamalvandi, said that these new centrifuges and new developments will improve Iranian production and enrichment capacity.

This, he added, is not a violation of the deal which forbids further production for 6 months - not improvement.

And the games continue.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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New Nazi Salute is the Rage

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

I have not been this disturbed by a news item or event in a very long time.

Yesterday I spent several hours researching and investigating a new symbol of blatant and despicable Anti-Semitism. It is called QUENELLE. A quenelle is a French pastry. But this is neither sweet nor tasteful. This quenelle is a reverse Nazi salute.

The rise of the quenelle has been seen primarily in France, its place of origin. So far it has been perpetrated almost exclusively by the French - even when they leave France. It is all over the internet and Facebook.
People take pictures of themselves doing the quenelle in popular and very inappropriate locales - individually and en masse.

It is illegal in France to use Nazi symbols or to inspire anti-Semitism. Changing the Nazi salute and inverting it by placing one hand downward while the other arm crosses the body is a way around the law.

I have added 2 hyper links to a 3 minute Youtube video and a YNET article showing pictures of neo Nazis doing the quenelle salute in front of synagogues, at Holocaust memorials and outside the notorious massive death camp Auschwitz/Birkenau. They are even seen at the Western Wall and posing with smiling Israeli soldiers oblivious to what is really being perpetrated.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxlQK0g2kSk
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4464336,00.html

Once you understand what is happening, you will find this fast growing trend as frightening as I do.

The French are taking this seriously. French leadership is talking about ways to control the quenelle movement. In the meantime, the movement grows and spreads its Anti-Semitic message.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Pollard Has A Small Chance

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

There is a better chance now than there has been in a very long time that Jonathan Pollard may be freed.

Now that Prism, the NSA program made public by Edward Snowden, outted the United Sttaes for spying on Israel at the highest level, Israel is hoping to use the information as leverage with which to free Pollard.

Israel is attaching Pollard to the Palestinian peace process. They hope to link concessions that they make to the Palestinians - concessions that will appease the United States - with progress on the Pollard front.
Israel will push the US about the double standard. You can spy on us and we can't spy on you? We were caught years ago, you were caught now. We will drop the issue if you let our spy go.

Another important factor in this equation is President Obama who, until now, has not weighed in on Pollard.
Fundamentally, Obama is motivated by fairness. He is all about being fair and being equal.
The publicity about the US spying on Israel may provide the impetus he needed to help Pollard.
The stumbling block is the defense establishment. The defense establishment is dead set against it.

The Constitution, however, provides for situations such as the one Pollard is embroiled in and the Constitution put the decision making power totally in the office of the president.

It is written in Article II, Section 2, Clause 1:
"and he shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment."

Since 1900, 20,000 presidential pardons have been issued. A pardon is not the only option. Vacating the verdict, clemency or commuting the sentence all fall under the right of the US President.

Now that Israel has assumed responsibility for Pollard (which for years they denied) swaps can occur. Recently, a US citizen was returned from Russia in exchange for several Russians and other things that Russia wanted. If Israel successfully applies the necessary pressure and the United States wants to play along Pollard can be freed through any number of scenarios.

In the end Israel is fighting for Pollard because of an essential Jewish principle: one does not leave captives.
Jonathan Pollard has done his time. And I can honestly say that at this historical juncture, Israel is willing to pay dearly for his release.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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A New Intifada?

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

There has been a serious rise in violence in the West Bank over the past few weeks. The IDF, the police and intelligence service have begun to call it a mini intifada or uprising

Actually, no one wants to even use the word because of its historical resonance, but, given the events, it seems both appropriate and accurate. In fact, several factors are emerging signaling that a full blown intifada might be on the way.

Over the past few months there have been several hundred small acts of violence in the West Bank. This past week the incidents escalated in seriousness. There were three large incidents including the Palestinian sniper who, yesterday, killed an Israeli defense contractor.

Abbas has given a green light to attacks against symbols of the occupation and the situation is getting out of hand. The Palestinian leader hopes to add pressure on Israel to force negotiations - but once out of the bottle, violence will not be easily stemmed or directed.

Frustration on the part of youthful Palestinians, couples with a rejection of the establishment and current PA leadership has resulted in the rise of popularity of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi groups in the West Bank.

These groups are independent of the PA. They are not controlled by Abbas but have received his nod and do not fear PA security forces.

They are beginning to strike Israel on their own.

All this means that at any moment the West Bank could explode. And that does not even take into account the potential of a retaliatory Israeli strike that could easily trigger this new intifada.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Jesus Was Not A Palestinian

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Enough already.

Arafat used to do it all the time. Present day Palestinian leadership is carrying on the tradition. The Palestinians call Jesus a Palestinian.

In an email he just sent around the world PA President Mahmoud Abbas called Jesus a Palestinian. He wrote Jesus was a "Palestinian messenger who would become a guiding light for millions."

That's like calling Jesus an Israeli. And Jesus was not an Israeli.

Jesus was a Jew - he was not an Israeli and he was not a Palestinian.

Obviously, Islamic leadership cannot call Jesus the "Savior." Interestingly, the Muslim world has great difficulty even calling him "prophet."

In his email, Abbas called Jesus a "messenger" so as not to upset or, even better, to insult Muslim leadership around the world.

Jesus has his place in history. The fact that he does not play a role in Muslim history should not pose a problem. The Palestinians must stop abusing history.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Iran is A Regional Power

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday I read that Italian Foreign Minister Emma Bonino visited Iran and held a press conference with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.

The main point of the coverage was to say that any country trying to push Iran out of a position of power in the region, will fail.

Zarif made the following concerning efforts to exclude his country from the Syrian peace talks:

"We believe that the view which prevents Iran from playing a positive role on Syria issue is not realistic."

"We have announced readiness to find a political solution to Syria crisis and to have a constructive and effective presence in Geneva II."

"We hope the efforts (to solve Syria issue) will be based on realities"

Zarif reiterated that if Iran is invited to the talks, it will also take part in the forthcoming conference on Syria.
For her part, the Italian foreign minister responded well. She emphasized Iran's constructive role in the region.

She said: "We want positive presence of Iran in the international conference of Geneva II on Syria crisis."

"Geneva II Conference is the will of the United Nations to solve Syria crisis."

"... all the countries which have influence to stop tragedy in Syria should attend Geneva II Conference."

The only problem with this entire story line is that Iran has a proverbial horse in the race. The Iranians are major players in Syria. Iran has deployed special units of their Revolutionary Guard in Syria. Iran stationed training forces in Syria and the Iranians are sponsors of Hezbollah and of Bashar Assad himself.

Iran controls what happens in Syria. And Iran wants a resolution that meets their own specific goals and vision.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Friends Spy on Friends

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The sensational headlines should not have come as a surprise to anyone who dabbles even a little in intelligence.

Prism, the NSA program, tapped the phones and computers of Israel's prime minister and senior leadership during meetings. They tapped emails and telephone calls.

The operating assumption is always that your phone and computer are being tapped. No one in a position of power should ever say anything secure on the phone or write anything secure in an email.

All secure messages are delivered face to face and then only in very secure places. Places where lips cannot be read. Even the president of the United States sets up a tent in his hotel room and all documents and important conversations take place inside that tent and away from probing telephoto lenses and prying visual and audio optics.

Computers, cell phones, land lines are all child’s play to intelligence services.
Most memos and conversations do not have to be secret and sometimes information is leaked deliberately in order to create a designed response or to set a plan in motion.

It is not about insult or trust - it is all about knowledge. And knowledge is power.

Sometimes, knowing too much tips your hand. Sometimes, the other side slips and says something that they could only have received from information gleaned from a tap.

That's where the game gets interesting.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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US Senate Condemns Iran

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday the US Senate unanimously passed a resolution condemning Iran. The resolution called on Iran to free seven Bahai leaders who have been imprisoned as well as numerous other Bahai leaders who have been illegally held and never even charged.

The resolution reads: The Senate "condemns the government of Iran for its state-sponsored persecution of its Bahai minority and its continued violation of the International Covenants on Human Rights."

The White House has said that these resolutions are "not helpful." They added that this is not the time for resolutions of this nature.

Clearly, even the democrats on Capitol Hill disagree with the president.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Irony - Israel & the Palestinians

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Irony makes me smile.

Israel is trying to create a full court press on Iran. Each time an Israeli leader has the opportunity, he or she manages to inject comments about keeping the pressure on Iran into their conversation. President Peres does it, Prime Minister Netanyahu does it. Every leader, no matter the party or position, is pounding the pavement to try to convince the world to keep up the pressure on Iran.

Not only are they talking the talk, they Israelis are walking the walk. Israel is using every opportunity to apply pressure. And the most important place for applying pressure is in Washington, DC, both on Capitol Hill and in the White House.

Well guess what. The Palestinians are doing the same thing. Only the Palestinians are applying pressure on the White House in order to pressure --- Israel. And it is not just the Palestinians, it is anyone who sides with the Palestinians. Americans, Europeans, Asians and Arabs alike.

All irony aside, the pressure is growing. There is probably more pressure being brought on the United States to try to resolve the Israeli / Palestinian issue than to keep up the sanctions on Iran.

The Palestinians are doing a better job than the Israelis in their PR campaign. They usually do.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Palestinian Israeli Peace?

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said yesterday that talks with Israel may extend beyond the nine month April deadline if real progress and a "detailed skeleton" of all the elements in question is in place.

Erekat wants the skeleton to include frameworks for borders, land swaps, security coordination and refugees.

This comment indicates that there may be more room for optimism than the impression given by initial assessments. Thomas Friedman, in a recent OPED in The New York Times, seems to sense the optimism.

Friedman raked the Palestinians over the coals saying they cannot have it all and that they must be more realistic about their desires for statehood. He made a very cogent argument for compromise.

Friedman criticized Israel for wanting too much and said that Israel must give up one of their three essential loves - democracy, the Jewishness of the state, the totality of the land of Israel. He suggests the third option, giving up settlements in the West Bank.

There is still very little chance of success. That having been said, low expectations are a great tool through which to achieve change.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Iran's New Super-Radar

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

With full fanfare, Iran has announced a new radar system.

The announcement was made in all the papers, TV and radio stations, each announcement contained almost identical information. Iran now has a new, extra long range system radar that uses UHF, VHF, HF frequencies.

The system is called Arash, named after the Persian mythical figure and archer. According to tradition the Archer resolved a conflict about the boundaries of Persia by shooting an arrow off in a direction and all the land within the bowshot would become Persia. Arash used a magical bow and hence, he shot the arrow a super natural distance.

According to the reports this radar has a range of 200 kilometers or about 120 miles. It is able to track as many as 100 different incoming projectiles at the one time.

We do not know if this is actually for real - but the reports say that the radar system has been unveiled and successfully tested.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Snow in Jerusalem

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

It snowed in Jerusalem.

The international press has romanticized the rare, beautiful white blanket that now covers parts of the Middle East.

Both The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal printed unique, even entertaining pictures of the snow in Jerusalem - on their front pages and above the fold. The Times showed a lone figure swimming in a pool surrounded by snow and images of the city. The Journal showed a snow boarder high in the air, his tsitsit (ritual fringed garment) flying in the wind.

The images shown in those papers are beautiful, but they do not depict the whole picture. The reality is grim. There is a very real and very ugly underbelly to this storm. Over 100 people have been treated in hospitals after slipping on ice. Tens of thousands of people were left without heat and electricity many are still living in the dark and cold. There are people trapped, waiting in their homes for emergency evacuations to hospitals after giving birth or having suffered various medical crises.

Some say that Israeli leadership failed miserably and that basic services have not functioned well in this crisis. Others are enjoying what may be a once in a lifetime experience.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Romanian Carol - Kill Jews

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Dumbstruck. Flummoxed. I cannot believe my eyes.

I have just read the lyrics of the Romania Christmas Carol sung by a folk ensemble named Dor Transilvan on Romania public television.

In the song the carolers proclaim that Jews killed Jesus. They sing that the only good Jews is a dead Jew. And then they add the words, only in the chimney. In other words, do as the Nazis did - mass murder Jews and then cremate them.

The Romanian television network was fined the equivalent of about $15,000 for engaging in a major violation of the law by airing a terribly Anti-semitic program.

Here are some of the lyrics:

"A beautiful child was born/
His name was Jesus Christ/
All the world worships him /
But the kikes / Damn kikes /
Holy God would not leave the kike alive /
Either in the sky or on the earth /
Only in the chimney as smoke / This is what the kike is good for /
To make kike smoke through the chimney on the street"

After these words were sung, the host of the program actually said thank you the choral group.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Iran is Becoming Obese

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is positioning the entire scenario - the whole thing, the talks, the agreement, the other meetings, everything - as a conflict with the West, especially a conflict with the United States.

Iran may be correct. And they just may win the war of diplomatic public relations.

But on one battlefield, the Iranians are losing and they will continue to lose. That battlefield is the field of modern culture.

Here is the most recent - and a very scary - example: Fully 33% of Iranians are obese. The state is embarking on massive educational campaigns to combat the epidemic. Private groups are initiating campaigns to combat obesity. But none of their efforts are likely to succeed.

The main culprit is fast food. Pizza, hamburgers and french fries are being gobbled up by Iranian youth much faster than are yogurt and fruit. The Iranians are opening their own rip-offs of Western chains. The rip-offs come complete with all the poor nutrients and all the fats of the originals.

Iran realizes there is almost no way to confront this phenomenon.

But they should get points for trying. For example, for several days during the week the city of Isfahan has closed city streets to cars in order in stimulate walking.

It just won't work. The youth of Iran are doomed. And we all know what happens next - acne.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Iran Walks Out of Talks

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

On Friday Iran walked out of the five day long set of meetings they had been holding in Vienna. The meetings were the follow up to the accord they had signed with the P5+ 1 in the end of November with Iran.

The Iranian delegation walked out because the United States publicly listed 12 companies and individuals who have been violating sanctions. The reason the US made the announcement was to quell a resolution in congress to add new sanctions.

The accord specifically says that any new sanctions will nullify the agreement. The US was trying to thread the needle. They will say that they were just policing the current sanctions. They will say that this is nothing new. But Iran will say that it is new enforcement against them.

Officially, the Iranians said that they were returning to Tehran for consultations.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Talks w Iran Are Slow

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

For several days now, ever since Monday, representatives from the P5+1 have been meeting with Iran in Vienna.

There have been conflicting reports as to the progress of those meetings. But four days of talks is a positive sign and we know that, at least, they are still talking.

At first, public statements articulating positive progress on both sides were released. But yesterday it became clear that there are still real difficult issues to be hammered out. Principally, the difficulties surround what should happen and when.

Both sides are proving problematic. Both sides are insisting that the other make concessions. Iran wants a lessening of sanctions and the United States and the West want to limit the development of nuclear technology.

The biggest issue is a chicken and egg discussion. Which should come first? P5+1 says first open up for unfettered inspections and stop nuclear development. Iran says first relax the sanctions and then we will accommodate you.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Congress May Derail Iran Accord

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Congress has been threatening to derail the agreement that was signed between the West, as represented by the P5+1, and Iran in Geneva.

The House will probably pass a non-binding resolution before Congress goes to recess next Friday. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor is circulating a draft resolution.

On the Senate side, they seem more trusting. The Senate listened to the president and has heeded the White House calls for patience.

The agreement signed between the parties clearly says that no new sanctions may be imposed on Iran. If new sanctions are imposed, the agreement is totally nullified.

In reality, the House is sending a message to the White House and to Teheran. The message goes like this: We do not trust either of you.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Assassination in Beirut

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Last week Hassan al Lakkis was assassinated in his car in Beirut, Lebanon. He had just pulled up to his house and was still in the car when the assassin jumped out and shot him 5 times.

Lakkis was the Hezbollah tech guru. He masterminded the Hezbollah hi-tech drone system and many of their gadgets and gimmicks. Some friends and colleagues teased him and called him "Q" after the techie in the Bond movies.

It is also a commonly held belief that Lakkis has been the mastermind behind the smuggling of weapons from Lebanon into Gaza and into Egypt. He was very close with the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.
So who assassinated Hassan al Lakkis? Nasrallah and Hezbollah immediately blamed Israel.

But in an unprecedented response, Israel denied responsibility. The Israelis do not normally respond in these situations, they prefer to leave everyone guessing. Two groups, however, have claimed responsibility. The Free Sunni Brigades of Baalabek and the Soldiers of Damascus have both claimed that they killed Lakkis.

The style of the assassination and the response of Israel leads one to believe that responsibility really does lie with a local group.

There is no shortage of Hezbollah enemies in Beirut. Most importantly, the assassination was loud and public and very untidy.

The assassins did not have a very sophisticated exit strategy. They simply shot Lakkis many times and then sped off in a car.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Embattled PA Leadership

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The biggest problem with the US push for a resolution between Israel and the Palestinians is a practical one.
Unfortunately, the United States does not see the problem that will emerge because of their misdirected actions and advice.

The PA is an embattled and nearly totally defunct entity. Hamas is gaining popularity in the West Bank. Al Qaeda is growing in number in the West Bank. Most importantly, the Salafi movement is not only growing, it is growing quickly.

These groups view the Palestinian Authority as collaborators with Israel and the United States. They are fighting for the hearts and souls of young Palestinian men and boys and these groups are promising them the moon.

The PA is seen not as the leader of the future but as a throwback to the past. The masses of PA youth are not interested in Abbas - in fact, when they look at him all they see is corruption and nepotism.

The suggestions being made by the United States about security and the PA and Israel are non-attainable because, simply put, they are just not practical. The Palestinians seem to want new, young extremists more than they want the old guard.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Israelis & Saudis Meet About Iran

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Follow this carefully.

Iran reported yesterday that Saudi Prince Bandar, who is also the head of the Saudi Intelligence Service, recently met several time with Israel intelligence officials in Geneva.

Under normal circumstances neither the source nor the report would be credible. But this particular report seems to be substantiated and logic dictates that meeting of this sort would be more than probable.

There have been multiple rumors and even public statements about regional cooperation with Israel. In other words, Saudi Arabia and Israel met to discuss ways to try to contain or even counter Iran and deal with the newly minted relationship Iran now has with the West, especially the United States.

The priorities for Israel and Saudi Arabia include trying to sideline all of Iran's proxies and trying to talk directly with the US to convince them of the mistake they are making with Iran and show them how Iran's interests are to destabilize - not to stabilize - the region and even the world.

Saudi Arabia is not shy about voicing dissatisfaction over Iran and Israel has been very vocal in their skepticism over Iran's intentions. The Saudis and Israelis are also sharing intelligence about the Muslim Brotherhood, especially in Egypt.

These were high level meetings. I am certain that other lower level and operational meetings are happening as you read this.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Israel Re-assesses Syria

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Over the past few weeks it seems clear that Israel has changed their assessment of Syria.

Until now Israel has always claimed that President Bashar Assad of Syria was on his way out and that his days were numbered. It was not a question of if but when he would be ousted, killed, toppled or exiled.

Now the Israelis have confirmed that Bashar Assad is there to stay for the foreseeable future. Assad has secured his position and his primary mission is to rid his country of Islamic al Qaeda influences that have crossed into Syria to try to topple him.

The change in Israel's assessment is based on Assad's recent military successes and the change in momentum within Syria that has continued to flow in his favor over the past ten months. In addition there is the international credibility that Assad has gained by cooperating and helping to identify and destroy chemical and biological weapons facilities within Syria.

Now Israel is now drawing up new and future scenarios for Syria. Primary on their list are the 5,000 to 10,000 foreign al Qaeda fighters only a stone’s throw away from Israel.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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What if the US Withdraws

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

There are numerous discussions in international arenas about the United States stepping down from its long held role as international policeman.

It seems clear that under the stewardship of President Barack Obama the US is redefining its role internationally. Part of that redefinition means pulling out of places where the mere presence of the United States insured stability and free flow of economic and commercial traffic.

One of the regions now in question is the Persian Gulf. Until now the US has played an essential role in making certain that oil flowed freely through the region. There is serious speculation and worry in the corridors of oil consuming nations that, given the current US condition and policy making decisions, they may diminish their policing role in the Gulf.

If that should happen who, if anyone, will step in to fill the void? So far, it looks as if the void will remain.

Following is a significant example of that new reality:

Salman Khashid is India's minister of external affairs. India is the 2nd largest consumer of oil in the world. When the question was posed to Salman Khurshid's by Reuters, this is what he said: "We have never played the classical role of intervening with military assistance in the same way that the US has been doing."

That is troubling. Troubling for the region and troubling for the world.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Hamas To Hang Those Who Aid Israel

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday a Hamas court convicted and sentenced A.K. to death by hanging.

A.K. is the only name he is known by. His crime was helping the Israelis. Officially, in Hamas terms, the crime was collaborating with the Zionist occupation. It is a crime that is punishable by death.

Thus far, in 2013, Hamas has convicted and sentenced 12 people to death for helping Israel. Three have been executed. Since 2007, the year that Hamas took over Gaza, 17 people have been executed for collaboration with Israel.

Only two other crimes carry the death penalty according to Palestinian law - murder and drug trafficking.

Under Palestinian law the execution must be sanctioned by the President. In Gaza, Hamas does not recognize the authority of the president of the Palestinian Authority. They have not accepted Abbas since they took over Gaza.

Given that the punishment for helping Israel is death, it is very unlikely that any real peace can or will emerge between Israel and the Palestinians.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Kerry is No Miracle Worker

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State John Kerry returned to Israel last night.

Many people are hoping that he will succeed. They are counting on him to pull a rabbit out of a hat. Palestinian leadership has announced that Kerry must come in a save the day. New York Times columnist Thomas Freidman says that Kerry needs to push the parties and that will force a deal.

But Kerry is not a miracle worker.

It is not certain that the parties, Israel and the Palestinians, really want a solution. The Israelis talk about peace but have not really made the right moves. The Palestinians have never really made the right gestures or moves.

Realistically speaking, there is little chance of any solution during this Kerry Middle East trip.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Iran Moves in on OPEC

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Today OPEC is meeting and Iran is hoping to take charge.

The Iranians are attempting to change the daily output of OPEC and, once again, turn themselves into one of the most powerful forces in the world of oil export.

Of course, Saudi Arabia - the major OPEC member, will see this as a frontal assault. Saudi Arabia is currently the most powerful force around the OPEC table. Iran has been powerless since the Western sanctions were instituted. Now that the sanctions are being lifted, Iran wants to move into the position of power.

In addition to everything else they want, the Iranians are also proposing to place one of their people as the new chairman and head of OPEC. Exactly how the other OPEC members are going to receive the newly awakened arrogance of Iran is yet to be seen.

One thing is for sure, Saudi Arabia is not going to take this lightly. Expect real clash and a full blown battle.

We will continue to monitor the situation as it unfolds.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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UK Resumes Diplomatic Ties w Iran

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

London has announced that their new charge d'affairs will visit Iran today.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague announced that Ajay Sharma will make his first trip to Iran with the intention of setting up new relations between the two countries.
Ajay Sharma tweeted that relations between the United Kingdom and Iran will improve one step at a time.

This is a huge step for any Western country. It is a real diplomatic normalization of ties. I am curious to see what the UK gains from this unprecedented change in diplomatic status.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Al Qaeda in the West Bank

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
The Israeli army recently shot and killed three terrorists in the West Bank. The incident was unusual.

The first reason is that the West Bank had been pretty quiet, so a shoot out involving three terrorists was an out of the ordinary event. The second is that the group claiming that the three terrorists were their group members is a branch of al Qaeda.

The Palestinian Authority has maintained that there is no al Qaeda presence in the West Bank despite some serious signs showing evidence of the opposite. These three terrorists are the most recent and the most significant proof.

Al Qaeda influences come from the outside the West Bank by way of affiliated organizations trying to motivate locals to join their al Qaeda ranks.

There are two methods of recruitment. One is when organizers infiltrate into the West Bank. Another is by way of the internet. Online sermons and chat rooms and websites serve as gathering places from which the organizers garner support for their local objectives and global goals.

The PA responded to the shooting saying that these three terrorists were not al Qaeda members. They need to deny the affiliation because if they were, it would prove that another force is emerging which is outside the influence of the official PA.

The Palestinian Authority can deny as much as they want, but at this point it is pretty obvious to whom these three terrorists pledged their allegiance.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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What Iran Really Thinks

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
We often evaluate situations from our point of view, it's only natural. But in the case of the Iranian deal with the P5+1 power nations, it might be worthwhile to try to see things through the perspective of Iran.

Abbas Araqchi is the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister. On Sunday he was all over the Iranian press - on TV and in FARS, the official Iranian news agency. Araqchi provided a timetable. He said that this week he expects to hear from Helga Schmid, a senior EU diplomat, and that the group will probably convene again the following week in Geneva or Vienna.

Many questions arise, especially when, or even if, the agreement is in play. There is no mechanism at all for the agreement. There is no way for this agreement to be implemented. The Iranians know that, they probably maneuvered in such a way to make that happen.

And now the Iranians are expecting the West to violate the terms of the agreement which will, in turn, free them from the agreement.

Even if I am wrong and that was not the Iranian master plan, Iran does not feel that the agreement released last Saturday night is binding.

Here is what Araqchi said. Determine for yourself what it means:
"The moment we feel that the opposite side is not meeting its obligations or its actions fall short, we will revert to our previous position and cease the process."

"We are in no way optimistic about the other side - we are pessimistic - and we have told them that we cannot trust you."

No need to read between the lines.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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There Must Be a 2nd Agreement w Iran

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

"One hundred percent no."

That was the answer Iran's President Hassan Rouhani gave the Financial Times when asked if Iran was going to dismantle any nuclear technology.

This exclamatory statement is another in a long series of proofs that confirm for me that the agreement that the P5+1 signed with Iran came out in two very different versions.
Sitting on my desk is the copy of the agreement sent out by the White House. I re-read it several times a day when I write about or comment on the agreement.

But then I see, hear and read what Rouhani and others say and do and I have to ask what it going on here. Their words and actions are completely counter to what is written in and permitted by the agreement sitting in front of me.

At first I thought Iran was pushing the limits. But there are too many examples to cast aside. India says that they are now going to resume oil importing from Iran and that their insurance carriers will now cover them. Russia, too, says that they are now preparing to import Iranian oil.

The only way that this is possible is if there is another version of the agreement. Petrol chemicals are permitted in the pact according to my copy, oil is not.

Micah@Halpern.com

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US - Iran Chamber of Commerce

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Hear ye, hear ye, read all about it. Two news items you could not have expected:

# 1: An Iran / US Chamber of Commerce has been created and will officially begin functioning with the next few weeks.

# 2: Direct flights between the United States and Iran will be instituted in the near future. The flights will arrive and depart only on the Island of Kish. Kish is an international tax free trading zone. As such, US citizens will not need Iranian visas.

This news was presented, in Iran, by Abdolfazl Hejazi of the Iran / US Chamber of Comerce. The announcements were made public in a press conference and publicized to the English language press yesterday in Iran.

The announcement went like this: "Iran / US Chamber of Commerce will be launched in less than one month," Abolfazl Hejazi, a member of Iran's Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture, told the English-language Iran Daily.

This process of normalization between the United States and Iran is moving ahead very quickly. While there are no official relations yet, at this rate I do not imagine that it will be too long before official diplomatic relations are established and there is an exchange of ambassadors.

Let us, however, not forget what happened in 1979. That is the year Iran took 52 US diplomats hostage - and kept them for 444 days.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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2 News Items Caught My Eye

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Of the many news reports that crossed my screen yesterday, two items caught my attention more than the others.

One item was a report on how the United States formerly and publically defended Iran’s right to continue construction of their plutonium enrichment factory at Arak. That's right - the United States defended Iran's right.

The United States said that as long as the Iranians are not working on heavy water or plutonium itself, the plant can continue construction.

What the United States refuses to acknowledge is that once completed, the Arak plant will be in the perfect position to process plutonium for a bomb.

The other item was a report that the United States announced that they would be destroying Syrian weapons in the sea on a ship called the MV Cape Ray. The ship is a huge, 700 feet long. No country wanted to host the destruction so the United States will have to destroy these Syrian non-conventional weapons on its own.

These two items teach us a lot about what is happening in our world today. Item number one highlights that fact that the deal with Iran is really, honest and truly only good for Iran.

And item number two underscores the fact that no one other country cares about or is willing to help another no matter that it is for the greater good. When it's not about Iran, everyone is too busy to lend a hand.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Rouhani Loves the Deal

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Hassan Rouhani, the new president of Iran is very happy about the deal he signed with the West. And why wouldn't he be.

Yesterday he explained why this deal so excites him. This deal, he said, has made Iran stronger and severely weakened Israel.

Here is his quote: "Everyone is happy about this deal."

Rouhani said that the only people who were not happy or satisfied were "warmongers and that regime, which is an illegitimate one that occupies."

The words "that regime" is a Rouhani euphemism for Israel. The new president, just like the entire elite leadership of Iran, never mentions Israel by name.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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India To Buy Iran Oil

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd has announced that they will once again be importing oil from Iran.

HPCL is the largest oil refinery in India. They only stopped importing Iranian oil in April when it became impossible to insure ships transporting oil from Iran to India.

India is the second largest importer of oil in the world. They are also the second largest consumer of oil. They import crude and refine it.

Soon, they will probably outstrip China for the title of the World's Largest Importer and Worlds Largest Oil Consumer.

HPCL is convinced that the new agreement signed by the 5 +1 will allow them the ability to freely, safely and legally get oil from Iran.

If they are correct - and there is no reason that HPCL would jeopardize their ships and their product - it was not included in the agreement that was made public.

It makes one wonder ...

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Winners & Losers of Iran Deal

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
The pact between Iran and the West has resulted in some very big winners and some very big losers.

The biggest winner by far is Iran. The Iranians got just what they wanted. They can continue to enrich their uranium, albeit a minimum amount or uranium and, more importantly, they saved face. These were their red lines.

Barack Obama is the next big winner. The president of the United States embraced talks, he wanted an agreement and he got an agreement.

The big losers are Israel and Saudi Arabia.

The Palestinians have weighed in on the agreement and they endorsed it. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Issued a statement saying that the agreement "sent an important lesson to Israel of which it needs to learn that peace is the only solution for the Middle East, and the world powers have to be wound up in order to advance a peace deal between the Israelis and the Palestinians."

Even this agreement, which has nothing to do with the Palestinians, has become their issue. Abbas can't resist. He insists on laying blame for the failing peace negotiations at the he feet of Israel for not engaging in peace and for the West for not forcing a settlement.

As far as the Palestinians are concerned, even though they are neither winners nor losers in this deal, it's all about them.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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They Singed & It's A Travesty

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The agreement signed between Iran and the 5+1is a travesty. It is what I would call a "temporary freeze agreement" - and a poor agreement at that.

The agreement is based on the hope that Iran will freeze their activity for 6 months and in return for allowing the nations of the world to hope, Iran will receive some relief from the sanctions placed against them.

The most glaring drawback in this document is that the Iranian plutonium reactor in Arak just stands still.

To be precise, it stands still in terms of its plutonium enrichment - but Iran can still continue to build and expand upon its technology. Unlike uranium, there is only one purpose for a plutonium reactor. The purpose is for weapons.

As for the other, the many, the small labs that Iran has been opening and developing technology and materials in - they are not even part of the package.

The Iranians are counting on is this interim agreement becoming permanent. That would be a huge victory for them. They would get relief from sanctions and the core of their nuclear program will not even have been touched.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Rouhani Tweets About Israel

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani posted a tweet yesterday.

He told the 6 powers that are involved in negotiating with Iran in Geneva to make a decision. To make a decision independent of Israel and Israel's stance.

Tweeting this message is an essential tool of Iranian rhetoric. The Iranians are suggesting that Israel has manipulated the most powerful nations in order to accommodate their needs.

Rouhani is saying that Israel's needs are not necessarily the needs of other countries. And that is what is holding up the agreement.

The problem is that all 6 countries in the negotiations understand the risks that Israel will confront as a result of a treaty - especially if that treaty is abrogated. So, indeed, it may appear as if the 6 countries present are arguing for Israel.

Unfortunately, in this case the litmus test for a good deal is whether or not Israel is threatened. They are.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Americans Want Treaty w Iran

By Micah Halpern

Friday November 22, 2013
I've Been Thinking:

A recent CNN poll shows that 56% of Americans are in favor of signing a treaty with Iran in exchange for the stopping of uranium enrichment and the lifting of certain sanctions.

56% is a very telling number. It means that 56% of Americans are hopeful.

But it does not explain why they think this way. That, I can explain.

Americans are trusting and optimistic ---  actually to a fault. It is that trusting attitude which allows Americans to believe that a deal with the Iranians will benefit everyone.

It is very hard for the American spirit to see a down side. I will tell them what that down side is. Iran is not trustworthy. And that I can say 100%.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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On Iran

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The meetings between Iran and the 5+1 began yesterday in Geneva. It was a very short meeting, only 5 or 10 minutes. The meeting was an introduction of sorts, now small groups are going into bilateral meetings.

Yesterday, while addressing commanders of the Basij, a paramilitary force that patrols the cities in Iran, the Grand Ayatollah said that: "The (Israeli) Zionist regime is a regime whose pillars are extremely shaky and is doomed to collapse."

The French government spokesman came out with a statement that comments of this sort are not productive, and are "problematic."

As Iran and the 5+1 were meeting, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu hopped on a plane to Moscow for a last minute meeting with Russian President Putin. Netanyahu wants to convince Putin to help France in demanding more substance in the agreement with Iran.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Conflict Over Iran Deal

I've Been Thinking:

The disagreement between the White House and Israel over a potential agreement with Iran has been blown way out of proportion.

Yes, there is disagreement - but it is a mistake to think that it is simply between Israel and the White House.

Congress has been very vocal about their disagreement with the White House, so dissatisfied that and have scheduled a vote to intensify sanctions against Iran even in the middle of talks with Iran.

So what does President Obama do? The president uses his most powerful tool of persuasion to convince the members of Congress to postpone the vote - he invites them to the White House.

First the Senate Committee on Banking pushed off their decision on sanctions. And then yesterday the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations decided to delay their vote on sanctions until after Thanksgiving and revisit the issue in December.

It is important to realize that there is an internal US conflict - not merely a Democrat /Republican split. There are honest disagreements about whether to trust Iran.

Israeli leadership is on the side of not trusting Iran, as are a significant number of leaders on Capitol Hill.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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PA Football Head Calls Israel Nazis

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Shock is the best response to the comments of Jibril Rajoub, the head of the Palestinian Football Association.

Rajoub laced into Israel and declared that Israel is a fascist and Nazi country. He called for a total boycott of sports interaction between the Palestinians and the Israelis.

Rajoub is claiming that the Israelis, specifically Prime Minister Netanyahu, are "taking advantage of the negotiations in order to play for time and create facts on the ground, which proves that this is an occupation in the form of fascism and Nazism."

Rajoub called for an immediate "escalation in the popular activity against the occupation." The term "popular activity" is an essential code which means violence and attacks against Israeli.
In response, the Israel Football Association released the following statement:

"We are disgusted by these wretched statements and reject them. It's unfortunate that Rajoub is using sports for political purposes and is failing to contribute to the creation of a better reality."

"Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Association Chairman Avi Luzon and the heads of the IDF are trying constantly to help the Palestinian Authority maintain a life of sports as long as it does not put the security of the State of Israel and its citizens in danger."

"Accusing Israel of fascism and Nazism and calling for an armed uprising by Rajoub can be seen as incitement, and it's hard to see how this can help improve the situation."

A conflict of this sort is extremely dangerous. It sets an awful tone and frames the issues of this conflict in terms that are wildly out of proportion to the real issues and the true conflict.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Israel & France Agree

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

French President Francois Hollande is visiting Israel. Israel and France both consider this a critical visit.
France is the reason that the lightening paced move to sign a deal with Iran was slowed down. The French want to add more specifics and independent evaluations into the pact. It was France that put the brakes on and stopped the signing last week.

Israel is very happy about that.

France was also the first and most powerful voice calling for a strike against Syria after the August 21 gassing. French fighters were in their jets ready to strike when Hollande got a call from the White House demanding that they stand down.

But Israel is realistic.

France has always pursued its own direction in the Middle East - and it was often at odds with and very different from the perspectives of Israel and the United States.

Israel realizes that Hollande has his hands full domestically - that his most important goal is to stabilize his own erratic economy which tanked post election.

So although Israel is elated by this trip and knows that it will be a huge success, they are also cognizant of the limitations of that success and very aware of how French foreign policy is prepared and played out. And right now, standing up against Iran and challenging the United States is a good move in Paris.

Make no mistake, that is why Hollande is behaving the way he is. Israel understands that. And right now, that is also a good move in Jerusalem.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Nasrallah's New Secret Weapon

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Media in both Lebanon and Israel have been actively asking a serious question about Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Nasrallah almost never comes out in public. He prefers the safety of underground bunkers. From the safety of those bunkers he broadcasts his messages and speeches.

To celebrate the recent Shiite holiday Nasrallah made not one but two public appearances. As usual when he is in public, Nasrallah was surrounded by his team of heavily armed body guards. But this time, something was different. One of the body guards, the one standing right next to Nasrallah, was not carrying a submachine gun. He was carrying a briefcase.

The media wants to know: What is with the briefcase?

Experts say that the case is actually a bullet proof blanket that pops up and shields the person. It can stand like a portable movie screen. It is supposed to protect against fire bullets of all kinds up to 7.62 mm and it is supposed to protect against explosions especially Molotov Cocktails. Several companies manufacture this product, the most popular company is Protech.

If that is in fact the case that Nasrallah is using, he is not the first to seek its protective powers. It is also used by the British.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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India China-Battle of the Aircraft Carrier

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

India just received its third aircraft carrier. The ship is a formerly decommissioned and revamped Soviet Russia carrier. It was totally overhauled by the Russians and sold to India for about $2.3 Billion.

The importance of this is huge.

China and India have a long history of coexistence. But over the past few years there has been increased tensions ... mostly caused by China and their movements in the South China Sea. More than that, there was also a three week land standoff on a mutual border between China and India.

The Chinese have orchestrated a series of tense moments between their country and India over the past year. Not the least of it is the fact that China has been chumming up to Pakistan - and we all know what India thinks about that.

The Chinese also have a former Soviet aircraft carrier that they put in the water in 2011.
China and India each see the other with great suspicion, yet trade between the two countries continues to grow.

These two nations are the most populous countries in the world and if they work together the relationship will be mutually beneficial.

If there are tensions it will be destructive.

One cannot avoid the reality that Russia is the provider of these and billions of dollars worth of other weapons. The Russians are in the middle of things - which is right where they want to be.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Beheaded the Wrong Guy

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Oops!

Some mistakes you just cannot take back and correct.

Al Qaeda of Iraq and Syria beheaded someone whom they believed to be the leader of President Assad's forces.

They cut off his head and held it up in the town square. The entire event was filmed and posted on line.

After it was posted viewers responded on line explaining that the bearded head was not a Shiite leader at all - it was the head of a member of a Sunni rebel group, a member of a group that was fighting Assad. The beheaded and the beheaders were supposedly fighting on the same side.

This gruesome, senseless, brutal episode underscores just how disconnected the situation is right now in Syria.

Al Qaeda has asked for "understanding and forgiveness." Understanding, I doubt it, Forgiveness, I am certain they will not receive.

Expect a huge rift between the groups in the not too distant future.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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US Will Be Largest Oil Producer

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The International Energy Agency just released a report that says that the US will become the world's largest producer of oil by 2015.

That is good news and bad. Using new technology, especially hydraulic fracking, the United States is able to utilize shale and the natural gas and oil that are contained within.

The bad news is that the United States will not stay on top for very long. Shale reserves will be depleted by 2030.

The IEA also reported also that, over the next few years, 75% of all energy consumed in the world will be in Asia and that India is quickly outpacing China in energy consumption. By 2020 India will be consuming more energy than China.

Within the world of oil and energy both production and consumption are taking shape. It looks like things are changing - but are they really? If alternatives are not found, in 15 years we will be right where we started and Saudi Arabia will once again be the world's largest producer and largest exporter of oil.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

Read my new book THUGS. It's easy. Just click. http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=halpern%2C+micah
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