There Must Be a 2nd Agreement w Iran

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

"One hundred percent no."

That was the answer Iran's President Hassan Rouhani gave the Financial Times when asked if Iran was going to dismantle any nuclear technology.

This exclamatory statement is another in a long series of proofs that confirm for me that the agreement that the P5+1 signed with Iran came out in two very different versions.
Sitting on my desk is the copy of the agreement sent out by the White House. I re-read it several times a day when I write about or comment on the agreement.

But then I see, hear and read what Rouhani and others say and do and I have to ask what it going on here. Their words and actions are completely counter to what is written in and permitted by the agreement sitting in front of me.

At first I thought Iran was pushing the limits. But there are too many examples to cast aside. India says that they are now going to resume oil importing from Iran and that their insurance carriers will now cover them. Russia, too, says that they are now preparing to import Iranian oil.

The only way that this is possible is if there is another version of the agreement. Petrol chemicals are permitted in the pact according to my copy, oil is not.

Micah@Halpern.com

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US - Iran Chamber of Commerce

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Hear ye, hear ye, read all about it. Two news items you could not have expected:

# 1: An Iran / US Chamber of Commerce has been created and will officially begin functioning with the next few weeks.

# 2: Direct flights between the United States and Iran will be instituted in the near future. The flights will arrive and depart only on the Island of Kish. Kish is an international tax free trading zone. As such, US citizens will not need Iranian visas.

This news was presented, in Iran, by Abdolfazl Hejazi of the Iran / US Chamber of Comerce. The announcements were made public in a press conference and publicized to the English language press yesterday in Iran.

The announcement went like this: "Iran / US Chamber of Commerce will be launched in less than one month," Abolfazl Hejazi, a member of Iran's Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture, told the English-language Iran Daily.

This process of normalization between the United States and Iran is moving ahead very quickly. While there are no official relations yet, at this rate I do not imagine that it will be too long before official diplomatic relations are established and there is an exchange of ambassadors.

Let us, however, not forget what happened in 1979. That is the year Iran took 52 US diplomats hostage - and kept them for 444 days.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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2 News Items Caught My Eye

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Of the many news reports that crossed my screen yesterday, two items caught my attention more than the others.

One item was a report on how the United States formerly and publically defended Iran’s right to continue construction of their plutonium enrichment factory at Arak. That's right - the United States defended Iran's right.

The United States said that as long as the Iranians are not working on heavy water or plutonium itself, the plant can continue construction.

What the United States refuses to acknowledge is that once completed, the Arak plant will be in the perfect position to process plutonium for a bomb.

The other item was a report that the United States announced that they would be destroying Syrian weapons in the sea on a ship called the MV Cape Ray. The ship is a huge, 700 feet long. No country wanted to host the destruction so the United States will have to destroy these Syrian non-conventional weapons on its own.

These two items teach us a lot about what is happening in our world today. Item number one highlights that fact that the deal with Iran is really, honest and truly only good for Iran.

And item number two underscores the fact that no one other country cares about or is willing to help another no matter that it is for the greater good. When it's not about Iran, everyone is too busy to lend a hand.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Rouhani Loves the Deal

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Hassan Rouhani, the new president of Iran is very happy about the deal he signed with the West. And why wouldn't he be.

Yesterday he explained why this deal so excites him. This deal, he said, has made Iran stronger and severely weakened Israel.

Here is his quote: "Everyone is happy about this deal."

Rouhani said that the only people who were not happy or satisfied were "warmongers and that regime, which is an illegitimate one that occupies."

The words "that regime" is a Rouhani euphemism for Israel. The new president, just like the entire elite leadership of Iran, never mentions Israel by name.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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India To Buy Iran Oil

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd has announced that they will once again be importing oil from Iran.

HPCL is the largest oil refinery in India. They only stopped importing Iranian oil in April when it became impossible to insure ships transporting oil from Iran to India.

India is the second largest importer of oil in the world. They are also the second largest consumer of oil. They import crude and refine it.

Soon, they will probably outstrip China for the title of the World's Largest Importer and Worlds Largest Oil Consumer.

HPCL is convinced that the new agreement signed by the 5 +1 will allow them the ability to freely, safely and legally get oil from Iran.

If they are correct - and there is no reason that HPCL would jeopardize their ships and their product - it was not included in the agreement that was made public.

It makes one wonder ...

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Winners & Losers of Iran Deal

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
The pact between Iran and the West has resulted in some very big winners and some very big losers.

The biggest winner by far is Iran. The Iranians got just what they wanted. They can continue to enrich their uranium, albeit a minimum amount or uranium and, more importantly, they saved face. These were their red lines.

Barack Obama is the next big winner. The president of the United States embraced talks, he wanted an agreement and he got an agreement.

The big losers are Israel and Saudi Arabia.

The Palestinians have weighed in on the agreement and they endorsed it. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Issued a statement saying that the agreement "sent an important lesson to Israel of which it needs to learn that peace is the only solution for the Middle East, and the world powers have to be wound up in order to advance a peace deal between the Israelis and the Palestinians."

Even this agreement, which has nothing to do with the Palestinians, has become their issue. Abbas can't resist. He insists on laying blame for the failing peace negotiations at the he feet of Israel for not engaging in peace and for the West for not forcing a settlement.

As far as the Palestinians are concerned, even though they are neither winners nor losers in this deal, it's all about them.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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They Singed & It's A Travesty

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The agreement signed between Iran and the 5+1is a travesty. It is what I would call a "temporary freeze agreement" - and a poor agreement at that.

The agreement is based on the hope that Iran will freeze their activity for 6 months and in return for allowing the nations of the world to hope, Iran will receive some relief from the sanctions placed against them.

The most glaring drawback in this document is that the Iranian plutonium reactor in Arak just stands still.

To be precise, it stands still in terms of its plutonium enrichment - but Iran can still continue to build and expand upon its technology. Unlike uranium, there is only one purpose for a plutonium reactor. The purpose is for weapons.

As for the other, the many, the small labs that Iran has been opening and developing technology and materials in - they are not even part of the package.

The Iranians are counting on is this interim agreement becoming permanent. That would be a huge victory for them. They would get relief from sanctions and the core of their nuclear program will not even have been touched.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Rouhani Tweets About Israel

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani posted a tweet yesterday.

He told the 6 powers that are involved in negotiating with Iran in Geneva to make a decision. To make a decision independent of Israel and Israel's stance.

Tweeting this message is an essential tool of Iranian rhetoric. The Iranians are suggesting that Israel has manipulated the most powerful nations in order to accommodate their needs.

Rouhani is saying that Israel's needs are not necessarily the needs of other countries. And that is what is holding up the agreement.

The problem is that all 6 countries in the negotiations understand the risks that Israel will confront as a result of a treaty - especially if that treaty is abrogated. So, indeed, it may appear as if the 6 countries present are arguing for Israel.

Unfortunately, in this case the litmus test for a good deal is whether or not Israel is threatened. They are.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Americans Want Treaty w Iran

By Micah Halpern

Friday November 22, 2013
I've Been Thinking:

A recent CNN poll shows that 56% of Americans are in favor of signing a treaty with Iran in exchange for the stopping of uranium enrichment and the lifting of certain sanctions.

56% is a very telling number. It means that 56% of Americans are hopeful.

But it does not explain why they think this way. That, I can explain.

Americans are trusting and optimistic ---  actually to a fault. It is that trusting attitude which allows Americans to believe that a deal with the Iranians will benefit everyone.

It is very hard for the American spirit to see a down side. I will tell them what that down side is. Iran is not trustworthy. And that I can say 100%.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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On Iran

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The meetings between Iran and the 5+1 began yesterday in Geneva. It was a very short meeting, only 5 or 10 minutes. The meeting was an introduction of sorts, now small groups are going into bilateral meetings.

Yesterday, while addressing commanders of the Basij, a paramilitary force that patrols the cities in Iran, the Grand Ayatollah said that: "The (Israeli) Zionist regime is a regime whose pillars are extremely shaky and is doomed to collapse."

The French government spokesman came out with a statement that comments of this sort are not productive, and are "problematic."

As Iran and the 5+1 were meeting, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu hopped on a plane to Moscow for a last minute meeting with Russian President Putin. Netanyahu wants to convince Putin to help France in demanding more substance in the agreement with Iran.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Conflict Over Iran Deal

I've Been Thinking:

The disagreement between the White House and Israel over a potential agreement with Iran has been blown way out of proportion.

Yes, there is disagreement - but it is a mistake to think that it is simply between Israel and the White House.

Congress has been very vocal about their disagreement with the White House, so dissatisfied that and have scheduled a vote to intensify sanctions against Iran even in the middle of talks with Iran.

So what does President Obama do? The president uses his most powerful tool of persuasion to convince the members of Congress to postpone the vote - he invites them to the White House.

First the Senate Committee on Banking pushed off their decision on sanctions. And then yesterday the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations decided to delay their vote on sanctions until after Thanksgiving and revisit the issue in December.

It is important to realize that there is an internal US conflict - not merely a Democrat /Republican split. There are honest disagreements about whether to trust Iran.

Israeli leadership is on the side of not trusting Iran, as are a significant number of leaders on Capitol Hill.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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PA Football Head Calls Israel Nazis

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Shock is the best response to the comments of Jibril Rajoub, the head of the Palestinian Football Association.

Rajoub laced into Israel and declared that Israel is a fascist and Nazi country. He called for a total boycott of sports interaction between the Palestinians and the Israelis.

Rajoub is claiming that the Israelis, specifically Prime Minister Netanyahu, are "taking advantage of the negotiations in order to play for time and create facts on the ground, which proves that this is an occupation in the form of fascism and Nazism."

Rajoub called for an immediate "escalation in the popular activity against the occupation." The term "popular activity" is an essential code which means violence and attacks against Israeli.
In response, the Israel Football Association released the following statement:

"We are disgusted by these wretched statements and reject them. It's unfortunate that Rajoub is using sports for political purposes and is failing to contribute to the creation of a better reality."

"Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Association Chairman Avi Luzon and the heads of the IDF are trying constantly to help the Palestinian Authority maintain a life of sports as long as it does not put the security of the State of Israel and its citizens in danger."

"Accusing Israel of fascism and Nazism and calling for an armed uprising by Rajoub can be seen as incitement, and it's hard to see how this can help improve the situation."

A conflict of this sort is extremely dangerous. It sets an awful tone and frames the issues of this conflict in terms that are wildly out of proportion to the real issues and the true conflict.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Israel & France Agree

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

French President Francois Hollande is visiting Israel. Israel and France both consider this a critical visit.
France is the reason that the lightening paced move to sign a deal with Iran was slowed down. The French want to add more specifics and independent evaluations into the pact. It was France that put the brakes on and stopped the signing last week.

Israel is very happy about that.

France was also the first and most powerful voice calling for a strike against Syria after the August 21 gassing. French fighters were in their jets ready to strike when Hollande got a call from the White House demanding that they stand down.

But Israel is realistic.

France has always pursued its own direction in the Middle East - and it was often at odds with and very different from the perspectives of Israel and the United States.

Israel realizes that Hollande has his hands full domestically - that his most important goal is to stabilize his own erratic economy which tanked post election.

So although Israel is elated by this trip and knows that it will be a huge success, they are also cognizant of the limitations of that success and very aware of how French foreign policy is prepared and played out. And right now, standing up against Iran and challenging the United States is a good move in Paris.

Make no mistake, that is why Hollande is behaving the way he is. Israel understands that. And right now, that is also a good move in Jerusalem.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Nasrallah's New Secret Weapon

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Media in both Lebanon and Israel have been actively asking a serious question about Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Nasrallah almost never comes out in public. He prefers the safety of underground bunkers. From the safety of those bunkers he broadcasts his messages and speeches.

To celebrate the recent Shiite holiday Nasrallah made not one but two public appearances. As usual when he is in public, Nasrallah was surrounded by his team of heavily armed body guards. But this time, something was different. One of the body guards, the one standing right next to Nasrallah, was not carrying a submachine gun. He was carrying a briefcase.

The media wants to know: What is with the briefcase?

Experts say that the case is actually a bullet proof blanket that pops up and shields the person. It can stand like a portable movie screen. It is supposed to protect against fire bullets of all kinds up to 7.62 mm and it is supposed to protect against explosions especially Molotov Cocktails. Several companies manufacture this product, the most popular company is Protech.

If that is in fact the case that Nasrallah is using, he is not the first to seek its protective powers. It is also used by the British.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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India China-Battle of the Aircraft Carrier

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

India just received its third aircraft carrier. The ship is a formerly decommissioned and revamped Soviet Russia carrier. It was totally overhauled by the Russians and sold to India for about $2.3 Billion.

The importance of this is huge.

China and India have a long history of coexistence. But over the past few years there has been increased tensions ... mostly caused by China and their movements in the South China Sea. More than that, there was also a three week land standoff on a mutual border between China and India.

The Chinese have orchestrated a series of tense moments between their country and India over the past year. Not the least of it is the fact that China has been chumming up to Pakistan - and we all know what India thinks about that.

The Chinese also have a former Soviet aircraft carrier that they put in the water in 2011.
China and India each see the other with great suspicion, yet trade between the two countries continues to grow.

These two nations are the most populous countries in the world and if they work together the relationship will be mutually beneficial.

If there are tensions it will be destructive.

One cannot avoid the reality that Russia is the provider of these and billions of dollars worth of other weapons. The Russians are in the middle of things - which is right where they want to be.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Beheaded the Wrong Guy

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Oops!

Some mistakes you just cannot take back and correct.

Al Qaeda of Iraq and Syria beheaded someone whom they believed to be the leader of President Assad's forces.

They cut off his head and held it up in the town square. The entire event was filmed and posted on line.

After it was posted viewers responded on line explaining that the bearded head was not a Shiite leader at all - it was the head of a member of a Sunni rebel group, a member of a group that was fighting Assad. The beheaded and the beheaders were supposedly fighting on the same side.

This gruesome, senseless, brutal episode underscores just how disconnected the situation is right now in Syria.

Al Qaeda has asked for "understanding and forgiveness." Understanding, I doubt it, Forgiveness, I am certain they will not receive.

Expect a huge rift between the groups in the not too distant future.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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US Will Be Largest Oil Producer

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The International Energy Agency just released a report that says that the US will become the world's largest producer of oil by 2015.

That is good news and bad. Using new technology, especially hydraulic fracking, the United States is able to utilize shale and the natural gas and oil that are contained within.

The bad news is that the United States will not stay on top for very long. Shale reserves will be depleted by 2030.

The IEA also reported also that, over the next few years, 75% of all energy consumed in the world will be in Asia and that India is quickly outpacing China in energy consumption. By 2020 India will be consuming more energy than China.

Within the world of oil and energy both production and consumption are taking shape. It looks like things are changing - but are they really? If alternatives are not found, in 15 years we will be right where we started and Saudi Arabia will once again be the world's largest producer and largest exporter of oil.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Lebanese Stop Hamas Arms Shipment

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The new Middle East is full of surprises.

In the Middle East, just like Machiavelli said, people act in their own best interests. No country acts altruistically. No leader acts on behalf of global issues or, even, out of pan-Arab concern.

In the Middle East leaders act to better secure their own leadership
positions.

So when the Arab magazine Al-Watan Al-Arabi reported that "Hamas men have been detained in recent months by state security forces while trying to enter the Beirut airport with fake documents" no one who understands the Middle East should have been surprised.

The magazine reported that: "The suspects tried to transfer a large sum of money from the Beirut Hamas headquarters to an unidentified source. Recently, it was claimed, Hamas managed to recruit a Lebanese weapons dealer in order to transfer advanced weapons to the Gaza Strip."

The Lebanese are clamping down on Hamas. They are doing this for the sake of better trade, especially with Egypt. But Lebanon is also worried. They do not want to call attention to themselves from Russia, the US or the Iranians.

Russia, the United States and Iran would all be very interested if arms were to be transferred out of Lebanon en route to Gaza. Rather than try to keep the operation hush hush, their next best option was to simply shut down the arms transfer.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Pope Condemns Anti Semitism

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

In St. Peter's Square, on Sunday, Pope Francis spoke about Kristalnacht. The Pope commemorated the 75th anniversary of the Night of Broken Glass.

He said: "We renew our closeness and solidarity to the Jewish people, our big brothers, and pray to God that the memory of the past and of the sins of the past helps us to be always vigilant against every form of hate and intolerance."

When Francis was Archbishop of Buenos Aires he co-authored a book on inter-religious dialogue with Rabbi Abraham Skora.

Pope Francis both understands and is sensitive to the issues that are central to the Jewish community.
Pope Francis fully recognizes and condemns all forms of hatred, especially anti-Semitism.
Pope Francis realizes that Nazism used anti-Semitism as fuel for hatred and as an excuse for murdering the Jews of Europe.

Pope Francis sees the dangers in not adequately confronting and learning the lessons of the Holocaust.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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US Gung Ho To Sign w/ Iran

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
The Office of the Prime Minister of Israel has concluded that the reason the United States is so gung ho to sign a "bad deal" with the Iranians is because the United States thinks it is the only way to stop an Israeli strike against Iran.

Israel is not alone in concluding that the deal is bad. Many countries, including Arab countries, are in agreement with Israel.

The French are especially upset at the potential deal and they are aggressively working to stop the signing.
The Israelis are convinced that the United States sincerely believes that the only alternative to signing a deal with Iran is attacking Iran. And so, it goes to reason, that the US will do anything and everything even signing a bad deal with Iran.

If Israel is correct, a terrible deal is just around the corner.
 
Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Israel Can Strike Iran

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
 
One of the classic responses to the possibility of an Israeli strike against Iran has been to say that Israel does not have the capability to do a proper job of wiping out Iranian nuclear systems and other weapons systems.

American leaders consistently put down the idea that Israel will strike Iran because the attack would not achieve the desired objective. But Israel's ability to effectively strike Iran has been updated.

Whereas it was always assumed that an Israeli strike would only delay the Iranian nuclear program by two to three years, today it is believed that Israel can set Iran back ten years. Even a partly effective attack by Israel would set Iran back seven or eight years.

The change in calculus is due to a better understanding of Israeli weapons and of better intel. This update in Israeli military might has been spreading through military and intelligence circles around the world. The axiom that was in play several months ago is no longer axiomatic.

Where once the United States said that Israel will need her assistance and will not act alone, today it seems that Israeli dissatisfaction over US negotiations with Iran carries with it a significant potential wallop.
Israel is now prepping a series of real strike scenarios. Some of those scenarios are to be carried out without US support.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Israel Prepping on the Golan

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Next week Israel will embark on a massive exercise in the north. The exercise will take place throughout the Israeli Golan heights

The Israeli army (IDF), along with communities in the Golan Heights, will work to improve preparedness for terror strikes that will be coming their way from Syria.

Israeli Chief of Staff Benny Gantz has alluded to the dangers of these attacks several times. Now the chief of staff has determined that it is time to prepare for them.

There are about 6000 al Qaeda fighters and affiliates in Syria. Some estimate that the number will double by April. That means that regardless of what happens to Assad, Israel will become their target.

Israel must create proper defenses against the al Qaeda threat. The drills that will be undertaken next week are designed to point out weak spots that need to be strengthened in order to create a better and more secure border.

For the past several decades the border between Israel and Syria has been tense, but relatively quiet. There is no doubt that the quiet will soon be shattered. The only question mark is when.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Syrians in Israeli Hospitals

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday fourteen Syrians were brought to two different Israeli hospitals for treatment due to serious injuries.

Two of the injured were women and they were brought to Ziv Hospital in Safed. The others were brought to Nehariya, one was a child and another, an infant.

Over the weekend an injured Syrian women recuperating in an Israeli hospital gave birth to a baby.

I have lost track of how many Syrians have crossed the border and received serious medical treatment and life saving care in Israel.

I do know that the numbers are now in the hundreds. I can also tell you that, so far, only one Syrian being treated in Israeli hospitals has died. That is impressive.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Price of Oil Dropping

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Oil fell to $94 yesterday.

The price of oil has been on a continuous slide and it will continue to slide even more.

There has been a 10% fall in the price of oil over the past month.

There has also been a 10% increase in US oil production against the average US output over the past 5 years measuring from the end of October.

The price of oil would probably have dropped even more - but the instability in Egypt, Syria and in Libya has caused the price of oil to increase. With those increases and with the additional output by the US there was still a drop in oil prices to $94.

Instability is normally the major indicator for oil prices. And the Middle East has not been calm. But in this case the supply side of the equation actually has an even more powerful impact on the price of oil than does turmoil in the Middle East.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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President Morsi in Court

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The trial of ousted Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi did not go as planned.

The proceedings began two hours late because Morsi refused to wear the prisoner uniform required for all defendants appearing before the court. It was delayed even more when Morsi, and others charged with him, refused to cooperate during the hearing.

Morsi shouted: "I am your legitimate president. You are wrong." "I object to having the Egyptian courthouse cover for the criminal military coupe."

When the court clerk took attendance of the defendants, Morsi interrupted and said: "I am forced to be in this place. I am here by force."

As it became obvious that the court was unable to control the defendants, Morsi again shouted. This time he said: "I am Dr. Mohammed Morsi, the president of the republic. I am Egypt's legitimate president."

Morsi shouted: "I refuse to be tried by this court."

The court should have realized that this would be the tactic taken by Morsi and his cohorts.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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What Iran Really Thinks

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The Supreme Leader of Iran - who has neither been seen nor heard from in several weeks - posted a very important declaration on his website yesterday.

The Grand Ayatollah Khamanei gave perspective to the process of negotiations with the West, particularly in light of the second round of talks scheduled for Nov 6-7 later this week.

Of course he called Israel an "illegitimate, bastard" regime. Actually, he referred to Israel as "an illegitimate bastard Zionist regime." He never uses the name Israel.

The Supreme Leader wanted the people of Iran to understand that the negotiations were not about Iran's weakness. "No one should see our negotiating team as compromisers."

He made it clear that he did not approach the talks with rose colored glasses --- "I am not optimistic about the (nuclear) negotiations but, with the grace of God, we will not suffer losses either."

Then he added: "All the better if the negotiations bear fruit but if there are no results, the country should rely on itself."

The Grand Ayatollah also strongly criticized the sanctions that are still in place. He seems to understand the United States very well. His ultimate take on the negotiations went like this: "The Americans smile and express desire for negotiation; on the other hand, they immediately say that all options are on the table." "We should not trust a smiling enemy."

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Kerry Visits Egypt

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State John Kerry made an unscheduled stop in Egypt today.

It was the first time since the uprising of four months ago that any high level representative of the United States, let alone the secretary of state, has visited Egypt.

The United States had no precedent for dealing with the ousting of a democratically elected president - and Morsi was the first ever democratically elected president of Egypt. They did not know how to handle the situation. By law the United States cannot support a coup against an elected regime - even if the regime represented the Muslim Brotherhood. So the United States cancelled several aid packages to Egypt and stood by watching and waiting.

This visit by Kerry is significant.

It demonstrates that the US finally, truly, understands and accepts that even though he was democratically elected, as leader of Egypt Morsi transformed his government into an anti-democratic government promoting the goals of the Muslim Brotherhood.

This is a major step for the United States and will help US standing in the region.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Next Israeli Coalition Bomb

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Another coalition bomb is set to explode in Israel on Monday.

Habayit Hayehudi, also known as the Jewish Home Party, under the leadership of Naftali Bennett, has proposed a law which would permit Jews to pray on top of the Temple Mount. The proposed law will be brought before a committee on Monday.

There is no official law forbidding Jews from praying there, but there is a status quo. And there is always the overriding issue of public safety.

There are Jewish tours of the Mount and periodically people will pray. When a Jew or a group of Jews pray as part of the tour, the police sweep down and arrest the Jews and then ban them from future visits.

The Muslim world scrutinizes every single action Jews take on and near the Temple Mount. There have been riots and protest in far flung Muslim locations stimulated by activities in Jerusalem.

Until now the status quo has controlled the situation. Status quo means 'stay as is' and in the interest of coexistence, everything should probably stay that way.

Obviously the point of the proposal is that Jews should be able to pray anywhere, especially in Jerusalem and especially at such a holy site.

While it is not forbidden by law, for the sake of safety and in the name of wisdom, Bennett should back off and everything should stay as is.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Ayatollah Not Seen For 3 Weeks

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

When a leader like Iran's Grand Ayatollah Khamenei does not appear in public for three weeks, and when there are press reports that he collapsed in a meeting and was taken to the hospital, the intelligence community starts making all kinds of assumptions and conjectures.

It has been three weeks since the leader of Iran has been seen in public and it is assumed that he is recovering from some health issue. We in the West do not know what might have caused the Grand Ayatollah to collapse.

Khamenei has been in power since 1989. He is only 74, but if he can no longer serve there will be serious upheaval in Iran.

The man most likely to succeed Khamenei would be Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the fourth president of Iran, from 1989 to 1997.

Rafsanjani is believed to be a reformer and as such, he could really create change. He is extremely well qualified to be the Grand Leader, actually more qualified than Khamenei in terms of his level of learning and academic standing.

I am not about to speculate. In all likelihood the Ayatollah is not going anywhere. But the end of the rule of the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei will come eventually and when it does, it will be very interesting to see how things shake and rattle and are then resolved in Iran.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 
 
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