UN Sec Council Rejects Palestinian State

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The United Nations Security Council voted to reject a resolution that would have created a Palestinian state twelve months from now.

Rejection of this resolution should be viewed as a major misstep by the supporters of a Palestinian state. Even those in favor of the state could not actually support the resolution as it was written.

The major supporters of the resolution were hoping to force the vote and the issue by embarrassing those countries who say that they support a Palestinian state but who would really vote against it.

In order to pass, the resolution needed nine votes. If it would have gotten the necessary nine the United States or the United Kingdom would have been forced into using their veto to stop the resolution.

In the end the vote was 8 for, 2 against, 5 abstentions.

The eight countries voting in favor of the motion were China, France, Russia, Argentina, Chad, Chile, Jordan, Luxembourg. The two countries opposing the resolution were the United States and Australia. The five abstentions belonged to the United Kingdom, Lithuania, Nigeria, Korea, Rwanda.

Imagine--- the resolution was so ill thought out and planned that even countries like the US and the UK could not support it. The deadline is what did the resolution in. Even if a state was not created within the year, it would still, automatically, be recognized by the Security Council.

That is so out of touch with the way the international conducts itself that even the UK, the US and Nigeria had to reject it.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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ISIS Interview w/ Jordan Pilot

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS released an interview with the Jordanian pilot they shot down last week.

The interview was in Dabiq magazine.

Dabiq is a very appropriate name for an ISIS periodical whose is to inspire followers and convince would be and wannabe followers to join the cause.

Dabiq is a town in Syria. But more importantly, in Islamic eschatology Dabiq is the central location of the final battle and the end of days.

It is the Muslim equivalent to Megiddo.

The interview with the Jordanian pilot, First Lieutenant Muadh al-Kasasbeh, has him describing how his F-16 was shot down on Wednesday by a heat-seeking missile near the Islamic State group's regional capital Raqaa in Syria. That to this day the U.S. denies is even possible.

This is a huge PR success for ISIS. And they have plastered it on the glossy cover of their new magazine.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Iran General Killed By ISIS

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards announced on Sunday that one of their commanders was killed in Iraq while aiding the Iraqis in the battle against ISIS.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards is an elite military unit. The Guard is a serious political and economic force. They control almost every aspect of Iranian society.

The Guards announced that "Brigadier General Hamid Taghavi was martyred during a mission to advise the army and Iraqi volunteers ... in the city of Samarra."
Samarra is about 70 miles north of Iraq's capital, Baghdad.

Over the past year there have been several reports that Iranian Revolutionary Guards personnel have been killed while fighting ISIS and reports that some have even captured by ISIS or al Qaeda. But this is by far the most senior person in the Guards to have been killed.

That old adage about "the enemy of my enemy" is alive and well and at play in the war against ISIS and al Qaeda. Thankfully.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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ISIS Executed 2000 Since July

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Since July ISIS has executed nearly 2,000 people - most of them civilians. But thousands is too nebulous for the gravity of the killings and the levels of depravity and brutality ISIS exercises almost every single day. Let's examine one specific incident.

The figures come from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The Observatory is the most reliable agency on the ground, in the region, and we quote their figures with great confidence.
Home based in London, the Observatory relies on locals and has a network of checkers to confirm their findings.

930 ISIS victims were fellow Sunni Muslims from the tribe and area of Sheitat located in Eastern Syrian. The reason for the massacre was twofold. The tribe of Sheitat has been fighting ISIS since ISIS first appeared on their turf. More recently, the groups were engaged in a heavily pitched battle for control of two oil fields. In the end, ISIS defeated Sheitat. In order to make the point clear to all who followed the battle and to intimidate anyone who might challenge ISIS, nearly 1,000 civilians were butchered in August.

And then ISIS executed 120 of their own fighters. Why would they murder their own?

All of the 120 fighters were foreign fighters. And they all were planning on returning to their homes. Once again, ISIS murdered in order to drive home a point. You do not go home, not unless you have orders to do so. If you plan to return home you are traitor, and traitors are publicly executed.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Iran Shows Us Its Weapons

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Iran claims it is in the midst of the largest military maneuver in their history.

The Iranians are saying that this maneuver is taking place over six days, on land, air and sea, using 13000 personnel and covering 2.2 million square kilometers.

The general in charge of the operation, General Hasham Allah Malka, said that the exercise is an "Important message of peace to our friendly neighbors, but also a show of force regarding our defense abilities which sends a message to our enemies."

The operation is called "Mohammed Rasoulallah" which means, "Mohammed the Messenger of God."

The maneuver will cover sea areas in the Indian Ocean and in the Gulf of Aden. Iran has been active in the Gulf of Aden in the battle against the rise of piracy that has plagued that region.
The entire exercise, which will conclude on December 30, will end with a parade.

When Iran presents its weapons and its military, we must sit up and watch very carefully. We must compare what the Iranians say is happening with what our intel is telling us and with what the Iranians have said in the past.

We try to correctly assess the capabilities of Iran. We can never take their pronouncements at face value.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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ISIS Downs F-16 -- A Big Victory

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

It was a huge feather in the cap, make that kaffiyah, of ISIS when they successfully shot down an F-16 fighter jet yesterday, a jet that was part of the US led coalition against them.

The US-made fighter jet went down in the area of Raqqa in Syria. It was piloted by a Jordanian pilot who has been captured by ISIS and ISIS forces are cheering and celebrating. The pictures do not look good.

Raqqa is a major center of ISIS. In Raqqa ISIS has crucified Christian children for not fasting on Ramadan. They have decapitated men for the crime of being members of "the wrong family."

The downing of a coalition fighter jet is a huge psychological victory for ISIS. It might just be victory enough to mollify the pain of defeat ISIS forces suffered earlier this week when Kurdish Peshmerga fighters forced them out of a vast area around Mount Sinjar in Northern Iraq. Fighting in that area is now going back and forth.

The pendulum swings.

The fact that it was an Arab piloting the downed jet, that ISIS now has an Arab as captive, makes the ISIS maneuver even more potent. You see, as much as ISIS is fighting the West they are also fighting other Muslims.

It is very simple. ISIS wants everyone to convert to their version of Islam. Not just Westerners. Even other Arabs. Everyone.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Polls in Israel

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

I have been repeating over and over that the Israeli elections will take place on March 17 - and that is just over 10 weeks away. I keep repeating myself because, for Israeli elections, ten weeks is a huge span of time.

There are polls coming out and while it is important to look at them, they in no way show what will happen mid March. These polls are important in terms of movement and ideas and followers.

The secondary questions the pollsters are asking are very important. Polls often ask which party you would vote for and then, they ask whom do you think is the best person to be prime minster or who is best equipped to be prime minister.

In the most recent polls Labor and Likud looked about tied 22 - 21.

The party of Naftali Bennet, Jewish Home, looks to jump from 12 to 17 seats. The party of Yair Lapid, Yesh Atid, will probably drop to 10 seats.

But when asked which leader would be a better prime minister Netanyahu overwhelmingly won 38 - 32. And then when asked who was best equipped Netanyahu won again, 30 - 22.

Again it is far too early for any of this to mean much. But it is essential that we look carefully and watch for changes as the campaign develops.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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ISIS in France

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Look at the last three days in France.

On Saturday, in Paris, a man stabbed and wounded three police officers while he shouted, in Arabic, "AllaHu Akbar," which means God is Great.

On Sunday, in the city of Dijon, a man rammed his car into a crowd injuring thirteen people while he shouted, in Arabic, "AllaHu Akbar."

On Monday, in the western city of Nantes, the sixth largest city in France and the city known as the Venice of the West, a man drove a van into a Christmas market wounding ten people, five of them very seriously while he shouted, in Arabic, "AllaHu Akbar." In this case, after he stopped, the man stabbed himself.

These attacks were all, plainly and clearly, stimulated by the ISIS. The attacks were perpetrated during the Christmas season in the hope of striking fear into the hearts of the community.

These attacks are modeled after the car terror in Israel and they are fueled by the social media of ISIS.

We are going to see many more of these attacks in France and throughout Europe. Be prepared.

 Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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ISIS Pushed Back

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday there was some good news about the battle against ISIS.

Kurdish fighters, called the Peshmerga, forced ISIS out of a 2500 square mile area around the Mount Sinjar in Northern Iraq.

The Peshmerga brought in 10,000 fighters and then an addition 350. Together with US fighter jets, they forced ISIS out. Local can now, finally, come home. Most of the people who had been displaced were Yazidis - tens of thousands were living in transit camps with no water.

Peshmerga means "those who confront death" in Kurdish. It should be clear that when you join the Peshmerga you are expected to fight to the death.

This recent victory against ISIS brings with it great hope. The area around the Mount Sinjar is large. Now the allies and the Peshmerga must work together to expand control and to slowly and progressively continue to oust ISIS

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Syria Making Local Truces

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Iran's powerful speaker of the parliament Ali Larijani is on a visit to Syria where he met with Syrian President Bashar Asad.

Assad told Larijani that Syria is in favor of developing small, local, regional treaties as a way to ease, if not bring about a total cessation, of civil war in Syria.

The principle behind the instituting of treaties is that local leaders, even leaders who oppose Assad, will come to an agreement about local resources and security. It really would be mutually beneficial to break the area down into regions controlled by tribal leaders - that way all sides are satisfied, but with some reservations.

For obvious reasons, the two groups which would be left out of these treaty agreements are al Qaeda / al Nusra and ISIS. They are what Assad calls the terrorists.

Iran was very pleased to hear about the Assad plan and the potential for alleviating much of the internal conflict fueling the Syrian civil war. If the plan progresses as Assad hopes it will, it will demonstrate a clearer identification of ISIS and al Qaeda / al Nusra as the enemy.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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2% Of Pledges to PA Have Been Paid

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Months ago donors gathered in Egypt and pledged $5.4 billion to help rebuild Gaza. The pledges far exceeded the expectations. That was not surprising.

And since then, almost no one has paid their pledges and those that did come in were for only a fraction of the promise. Once again, as I always say, this is not a surprise.

Thus far of the $5.4 billion only $100 million has been paid and that was by the United States and the European Union. That comes to about 2% of the pledges. And those were monies already in the pipeline.

Qatar promised $1 billion, the Saudis $500 million.

Now, we also know that the supplies that have been delivered to Gaza are either in storage waiting for proper supervision or they have been stolen and Hamas is using them to rebuild tunnels and create new ones.

Of the pledges, 50% was to go to rebuilding and the other 50% was to go to bolster the Palestinian economy.

Recent history of donor conferences and pledges has taught us that the only group that actually fulfills pledges and pays on time is the United States. And that is the only reason that the United States still has influence in the region.

The Palestinians cannot run to the highest bidder because the bidder may not pay, may not pay on time or may not pay the pledged amount.

Welcome to the Middle East.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Did Israel Infiltrate Inner Circle of Hezbollah

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The name of the Israeli double agent inside Hezbollah was divulged by Al Jazeera. His name is Mohammed Shurba. Shurba lived in Southern Lebanon. He was head of foreign operations and at one point was even in charge of Hassan Nassrallah's security detail.

When the announcement first came out saying that Hezbollah had captured an Israeli spy, they gave only the letter M as his name.

Reports are that Hezbollah followed Shurba to business meetings and witnessed him meeting with his Israeli handlers. It was at first unclear that the reports were actually true because, in the past, Hezbollah declared on more than one occasion that they had rooted out spies. But this report rings more true than previous reports.

If this really is true, it will be a great loss for Israeli intel.

This highly placed and reliable resource helped prevent massive terror attacks against Israel and aided in assassinating numerous terror leaders.

Here is the remarkable piece. If true, that means that Israel successfully infiltrated Hezbollah at the very highest levels possible. They had a double agent in place, since 2008, in the inner circle of Hezbollah.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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2 15 Yr Old Brits on Flight to ISIS

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

At a London airport a flight was stopped on the runway as it was about to take off.

On board were two 15 year old girls from East London who has saved up their own money to fly to Istanbul and from there, they were planning to cross over the border into Syria.

One of the girls was detained and brought back home by the police and she will be dealt with by the proper authorities. But the other 15 year old escaped before the police arrived. She will certainly be found.

The girls are minors so the law will be more lenient on them. If charges are proffered against them, the law will certainly treat them as minors. But affiliating with a terror organization is a serious charge - even for a minor.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Al Qaeda Takes Main Route in Syria

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

It was two days of non-stop battle and in the end 100 Syrian soldiers were killed and 80 al Qaeda al Nusra fighters were killed.

When the fighting stopped control of the strategic base in Wadi Deif which controls the central artery between Damascus in the South and Aleppo in the north switched hands.

Now the essential base is in the hands of al Qaeda which not only killed 100 Syrian soldiers but also captured 120 Syrian soldiers.

These numbers and many details come to us courtesy of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British group which has been the eyes and ears of the West in Syria.

This strategic base is an essential site in Syria. Whoever controls Wadi Deif has control of almost all trade and transport in Syria. Al Qaeda now has that control. But I predict that within the next week Syrian land forces and the Syrian air force will launch a campaign to retake the base.

Assad cannot allow that route to be shut down and he cannot permit the south of Syria to be cut off from the north.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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ISIS Behind Australian Kidnapping

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

ISIS and the West - so complicated and yet, so very simple.

ISIS wants to invade the West and destroy it. But Islam is multi layered and complex. Sunnis hate Shiites and Shiites hate Sunnis.

When a Shiite refugee from Iran kidnaps Australians and demands an ISIS Sunni flag, even we in the West should get recognize that things are not so simple.

The Lindt Cafe terrorist, Man Haron Monis, was inspired by ISIS.
There is no doubt about it. To deny that is to both be deceived and to deny our potential to properly protect ourselves from ISIS terror.

ISIS is not just about weapons and beheadings. ISIS has created a huge web and social network presence.
ISIS Youtube videos are impressive and they inspire young people to join their mission in the West.

ISIS wants to take over the West from within. They promise their followers respect, wealth success, sex and power. And their followers believe ISIS.

That is what happened in Australia.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Palestinians Move At UN Security Council

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

On Wednesday Jordan, a member of the United Nations Security Council, will submit a proposal for Palestinian statehood.

The draft resolution for Palestinian statehood was crafted jointly by Jordan and The Arab League. The resolution contains two elements -- one of them is a deadline. By November, 2016 a Palestinian state will emerge with United Nations recognition.

The second element in the resolution is that the new state will be located within the pre 1967 borders.
This resolution will go into effect regardless of whether a negotiated resolution is reached between Israel and the Palestinians.

Everyone, supporters of Israel and supporters of Palestinian statehood alike, are wondering what the United States will do.

Will the United States use their veto? Or will the United States articulate its frustration with Israel and support Palestinian statehood by fiat and not through negotiations?
Wednesday is the day.

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Hamas Celebrates

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas held a rally earlier today. They were celebrating the 27th anniversary of their creation.

For the rally, Hamas brought out their rockets and their elite teams. Hamas even paraded their naval commandos for all the public to see. At the end of the rally a blurry figure was shown - and Hamas asserted that it was Mohammed Deif, who Israel claimed to have killed in August. Deif was head of the Hamas military wing. As he was paraded out, an old speech of his was played.

Thousands of people, including children, marched and thousands more came to watch. For Hamas It was a huge propaganda show. Abu Obeida, spokesman for the Hamas military wing said, "Hamas was able to stop the ambitions of the Zionist enterprise and because of that, it is today on the verge of collapsing and disappearing."

Hamas leader Khalil al-Haya, shouted "After 27 years, Hamas holds aircraft and holds the sea. It has the ability to penetrate the enemy by sea, land and air. Anyone who thinks that Israel is here to stay is wrong. All of Palestine is Islamic land and no one will share it. Jerusalem is the capital of Palestine and the center of the conflict."

Propaganda is war, too.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Hamas Test Long Range Rockets

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Hamas fired 3 rockets into the Mediterranean Sea earlier today. Last month they fired 4 test rockets. In
October they shot test rockets two times, once into the sea and once into the Egyptian desert in Sinai. They also conducted a few tests in September.

Hamas shoots the rockets and then their spotters, positioned in likely strategic positions, watch to see where each rocket lands.

The Israeli security defense system is set up to sound alarms whenever a rocket is launched - even if it does not land in Israel.

The rockets Hamas is test shooting are M-302 rockets. They are mostly homemade, based on a Syrian design that was given to Hezbollah. They have a significant range and can hit as far as Haifa.

The head of Hezbollah named the rocket Khaiybar. Khaiybar is a dessert oasis about 70 miles east of Medina in Arabia. It features prominently in Islamic tradition. Khaiybar was a town mostly inhabited by Jews. The Jews living there rejected the teachings and prophecy of Mohammed and so they were slaughtered in what is called the Battle of Khaiybar.

The choice of weapon should be no surprise, neither is the choice of name for this weapon. Hamas is not just rebuilding, they are testing and improving their systems.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Germany CLamps Down on Jihadis

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

This week a court in Frankfurt convicted a German homegrown jihadist of membership in ISIS. The trial went on for four years.

Another trial is taking place in Stuttgart. A Lebanese German is being tried for joining ISIS in Syria and then returning to Germany to get medical supplies and weapons.

These are the first two legal cases in Germany, trying Germans, for membership in ISIS. Germany is very concerned about this radicalization. They know that many young people have joined the fight for ISIS and they know that many more support that fight.

German federal prosecutors are investigating 83 people and regional prosecutors are investigating another 100. The estimate is that 550 Germans are fighting for ISIS right now, 60 have been killed and another 200 have returned to Germany.

How Germany is going to stem the tide towards ISIS is a real challenge. The speed of the radicalization in Germany has been dizzying. But if nothing is done to stop it, Germany will be facing an even bigger problem as soon as next year.

Kudos to Germany for tackling the problem head on.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Iran Upset by Price of Oil

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Since June oil prices have fallen more than 40% to under $70 per barrel.

OPEC has decided to keep output the same and not play with the supply or demand side of the price curve.
Iran is very upset.

The Iranians submitted their budget for next year and they are reducing their expectation of oil profits. They are relying on less oil profits because of the drop in price. As a result, less of their budget will be oil based. Oil sale profits will be less substantial for Iran.

Iranian leader Hassan Rouhani explained that the new budget, especially in issues of national infrastructure, will receive significantly less capital from oil profits.

Rouhani told his cabinet that the cause was "conspiracy against the interests of the region, the Muslim people and the Muslim world."

He was referring to many groups - but his primary target was Saudi Arabia which was the most significant force within OPEC making certain that oil output did not dip.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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It Was Anti Semitism

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The stabbing of a Jewish man sitting and studying in a synagogue in Brooklyn, NY is a horrific act.

Authorities do not want to label act as either terror or as anti-Semitism. In their eyes those labels could potentially inflame the community - and they are trying to calm the community.

But it was anti - Semitism. The stabbing cannot and should not be interpreted any other way.
Even if Calvin Peters, the perpetrator of this act of anti-Semitic targeting and terror, was homeless or bipolar or arrested 19 times - shouting the words "kill the Jews" and stabbing a Jew in a synagogue is anti-Semitic.

His actions spoke as loud as his words. Peters came in and out of the place of worship. When he came back in, he started stabbing and shouting. He chose a target that was Jewish. Peters came from Valley Stream. Valley Stream is on Long Island, it is a significant journey from there to Brooklyn. He did not stab anyone in Valley Stream.

NY authorities have been playing down the terror and the anti-Semitic side of events of late. NY and US authorities have difficulty calling any lone wolf a terror attack - by their definition, the act
needs to be organized before it can be labeled an act of terror.

I wholeheartedly disagree.

This attack is different from the brutal stabbing in a synagogue in Jerusalem - but it did not happen in a vacuum. The Jerusalem terrorists claim to have been politically and religiously motivated, they professed the credo of Hamas. The Brooklyn, NY terrorist is, perhaps, emotionally unstable, but he clearly knew that he was attacking Jews. Knives were used in both attacks. And where did

Calvin Peters come up with the idea of bringing a knife to a synagogue - knives are not commonly used as the weapons of choice in the United States when the attacker does not personally know the victim.

We must face the facts and call these attacks what they are. They are, both the attack in New York and the attack in Jerusalem, violent anti-Semitic acts.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Hamas Delegation in Iran

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

A delegation of high level Hamas leaders touched down in Iran on Monday morning for meetings that are scheduled to takes place over the next few days.

The meetings are being called a new chapter in Iranian Hamas relations. The Hamas leaders are expected to meet with numerous Iranian leaders.

This is a very important trip. Iran wants to be the supporters of Hamas. They want a foothold in Sunni society in the Palestinian world and in the greater Arab world. There is a natural tension between Sunni and Shiites. But Hamas needs the money that Iran can give them and they are willing to push that difference aside in order to receive the badly needed support.

As a rule, the Islamic world sees Iran as a pariah. The Iranians are not part of the mainstream of Islamic world leadership. But Iran has a plan to move themselves into world Islamic leadership. Part of that plan includes being the benefactor or sponsors - and even the protector of the Palestinians.

Iran has big plans for this relationship.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 
 
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What Arab Leaders Think of Bibi

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

I just read a fascinating and insightful piece about the upcoming Israeli elections. The piece was written from the point of view of the halls of leadership in the Arab world. In other words, what are they saying in the palaces. What do the kings and emirs think about the upcoming elections in Israel.

The overall consensus as expressed by the piece is that the entire Arab world would like current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to fail and be replaced with a Labor/Lapid moderate government.

From Egypt to Jordan to Saudi Arabia all the palaces of power despise Netanyahu the article reported.

While it is clear the Arab world can wish for whatever they want, in the real world there is almost no scenario in which Netanyahu does not, once again, emerge as prime minister of Israel.

It is almost a waste of time to consider the alternatives. Certainly the palaces of the Middle East have the money to get better analysis. Tsk, tsk. As I said, it was a fascinating and insightful read - but also very off base.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Israel Strike Syria

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Media reports and the internet have been lit up about two Israeli strikes against military sites near Damascus.

The reports ran on Hezbollah, Syrian, Lebanese and even Christian websites. All the reports are spin-offs using the same material, just rehashing it. The most important points are that no one was hurt and that the sites were located outside Damascus.

Other intelligence says that the sites stored S-300 rockets. S-300s are the Russian made and Iranian marketed rockets with a range of up to 150 miles. They are a serious threat to Israel both from Syrian and from Hezbollah. Their launcher is very large. It looks like a very long and wide tube that sits on the ground or on the back of a semi truck. The rockets themselves are very large, 23-25-feet long.
They weigh about 4000 lbs and carry a 400 lb warhead.

Israel will neither confirm nor deny that they struck the depot of weapons. But all indications appear that this is an Israeli operation.

Israel needs to always prune back the technology and the abundance of sophisticated weapons that her enemies procure but they cannot destroy all weapons. These actions do not eliminate the weapons - they just make certain that Hezbollah does not have too many of them. This is a very different kind of defense.

The principle is -- the fewer sophisticated weapons the less likely you are to use them.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Danish Court Convicts Muslim for Incitement

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The other day, in Copenhagen, a Danish court ruled that inciting terror included statements on facebook accounts.

A Danish bookseller, originally from Morocco, named Sam Monsour posted "We are all terrorists, and we are proud." Monsour and his lawyer argued that it was free speech in a free country and they actually drew the parallel to the Danish cartoonists that lampooned the prophet Mohammed.

There are several huge issues at hand. One might expect this reaction from a book seller - but the lawyer should know better.

Lampooning a historical figure, regardless of how venerated, is a clear issue of free speech. The fact that people were insulted by a cartoon does not violate an issue of free speech. Being insulted is not one of the rules used to limit free speech. That is just disrespect and poor taste.

However, preaching hatred and inciting violence _ that needs to be reined in by the law.

So the Danish court is correct.

There is some latitude. The court could have ruled that it was freedom of speech simply because Monsour was on line and was siding with the terrorists.

But given the environment in Europe at this very moment, the court felt that they had to stem the tide of public affinity with terror.

The court made a clear connection between public affinity and the support of terror and the terror itself.
This should be the direction courts take regarding terror in all Western democracies. Publicly supporting acts of terrorism is a form of incitement to terror. Publicly supporting terror justifies the destructive acts of terror.

And that should never be condoned or allowed.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Good Part of Elections

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

March 17 is the day new elections will be held in Israel.

Israeli elections have always been a fascinating blend, a combination of pathos and humor. This election will be no exception. Old parties die, new parties emerge, large parties shrink and traditional parties break up.

Over the next three months we will see a slew of ads and jingles and bumper stickers portraying the ideals, visions and foibles of each party.

Beyond the failed parties and the arrogance, however, something great emerges. Israelis will spend the next three months debating and discussing the priorities of their state.

That discussion is enormously positive.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Ugly New Anti Semitism

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

In Moscow yesterday a Jewish student was brutally beaten just outside his yeshiva. Literally, he was 20 yards from the entrance of the school. Three attackers armed with brass knuckles beat him in the head and caused serious damage.

During the beating they shouted terrible anti- Semitic slurs. The attackers took no money.

Add to this two more cases of blatant and evil anti-Semitism that took place in the past two weeks. A Jewish man in Antwerp was stabbed. And a Jewish woman was raped near Paris.

These attacks were all clearly anti- Semitic.

What is essential to understand is that Jews are feeling threatened all over the world - and even in Western countries that were once host to the rise of Western freedoms.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Why Bibi Is Going For Elections

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

It seems that early elections will be taking place in Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu has already fired many of his ministers and pulled his support from the Cabinet.

According to sources, elections will take place on March 17. The heads of the various parties consulted and the date was selected.

I am going to let you in on a big secret. There is no need for this upcoming election. Netanyahu could have kept the coalition together. There will be an election because Netanyahu wants an early election. He wants to reshuffle his coalition - to bring in the ultra orthodox and oust the moderates.

Now here comes a bigger secret. Netanyahu is constantly conducting polls for internal consumption only, what are called internal polls.

The prime minister has devoted or, better yet, invested a small fortune in polling. There is never too much polling info. Suffice it to say that the current prime minister would never even engage in election talk unless he had very positive polling information.

Netanyahu is hoping for the implosion of several of the new parties.

He is assuming that he will hold on to or even gain some of the seats that will be the casualties of the implosion. Even if he drops a seat or two, Netanyahu will be fine as long as no other party gains seats.

Even before his present government comes to an official end, Bibi Netanyahu has a very good sense of what the next political landscape will look like. And it pleases him.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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New Elections in Israel?

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

People in Israel are talking about national elections.

Analysts are saying that the prime minister is floundering and that the final straw is that the finance minister and he have come to an impasse.

The problem with this analysis ...  which is correct ... is that it assumes that there will be a reshuffle with a new election.

Yes there will be a reshuffling - but not with the traditional parties. If there were an election tomorrow there is no doubt that the big losers would be the new parties. It is the new parties which would suffer the most.
The current leading party, Likud, may lose some seats but Likud would still be the party to beat and Likud would be the winning party.

Other than Likud, there really is no party or leader on the horizon. The parties which want to flex their muscles and apply pressure to pull down the government in a vote of no confidence would actually be weakening their own current political power and their own positions.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Abbas Provokes Again

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas made a provocative announcement to the Arab media yesterday.
Abbas proclaimed that Hamas and Israel are conducting secret talks.

The Palestinian leader asserted that Hamas and Israel coordinate their public announcements. He said that it seems easier for Israel to talk and coordinate with Hamas than for them to conduct discussions with the PA.

Of course there have been indirect conversations between Israel and Hamas. Egypt has been the intermediary and has successfully brokered deals by relaying information between the two parties.

But Israel does not speak directly to Hamas.

Abbas is correct when he says that it is very difficult to get Israel and the PA to speak - even when the US is the intermediary. The main reason for the difficulty is that both parties continue to point the finger at one another and do not seem to be interested in sitting down with each another.

Abbas is always blaming Israel.

Instead of blaming each other, Israel and the Palestinian Authority should sit down and start talking.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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