Putin Visits Turkey - Agree on Syria

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Russian President Putin visited Turkey where he had a series of face to face with Turkish President Erdogan.

The Russian and Turkish leaders agreed to create and to protect no conflict zones. They also confirmed that Russia will help build a gas pipeline in Turkey. Most important is that Russia agreed to build Turkey's first nuclear power plant

In a joint press conference Putin said "We reconfirm readiness to implement final agreements reached in mid-September in Astana about four de-escalation zones, including the biggest one -- in Idlib."

He continued, calling Erdogan "our friend" in Ankara and said "Despite difficulties we have achieved positive result. These agreements are our common extremely important success."

Turkey and Russia are working hard and working together to try to keep Syria safe. They also want to make certain that no new states emerge in the region.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Understanding Kim Jung and Trump

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
North Korean dictator Kim Jung Un is an enigma to all of us. His character is uncharted, his actions are unpredictable. Both Western and Eastern analysts are mystified by his behavior and stymied by his rhetoric.

US President Donald Trump is also an enigma. His actions, too, cannot be predicted. North Koreans are simply stunned by Trump. They cannot figure him out. And that is why they have actually tried to hire republican insiders. They need people in the know to help translate Trump to Kim Jung Un.

The conflict between NoKo and the US is increasing. The risks are gargantuan. The rhetoric is ratcheting up and up. Both leaders are using words as weapons.

Rhetoric is never the basis for a truthful debate. By definition, rhetoric is exaggerated speech, it is most often non-creative and almost always repeats cliches.

Trump and Un are threatening attacks and moving closer and closer to action. North Korea continues to launch missile tests, and the US continues flying fighter jets and bombers near North Korea.

This kind of saber rattling can be misread. It can be overdone and when that happens, it causes dramatic and dangerous overreaction. That overreaction can lead to counter action which can lead to massive damage and deaths.

We can't tell Kim Jung Un what to do, but we can beseech President Trump. The United States needs to take a deep breath and step back.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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PA Calls Terrorist a Hero

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

When a Palestinian terrorist murders three people in Har Hadar, the natural response should be universal condemnation.

The three Israeli victims were murdered by a 37 year old Palestinian named Nimer Jamal.

Instead of condemnation, the official Palestinian Facebook Fatah page celebrated the murder and the murderer. The Facebook page called Nimer Jamal a hero. It read: "We mourn this heroic martyr."

One has to wonder how interested the Palestinians are in peace. They didn't have to condemn him. All they had to do was remain silent, that would have been sufficient. Instead, they went so far as to proclaim the terrorist a hero.

This is a public relations victory for the Palestinians. They murdered three Israelis and only lost one of their own,

In their eyes the terrorist - a wife beater whose wife escaped to Amman Jordan and sought refuge and safety abandoning her children, is seen as a hero by the Palestinian people.

This is a problem. It is not just a problem for peace --- it is a problem for justice and morality. If there is no agreement about the principles of right and wrong, how can there ever be the possibility of achieving peace.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Iran Increases Oil Exports

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Iran has pledged to continue to export oil. Actually, they promised to export even more oil and increase their current production numbers.

This Iranian declaration comes despite the threat US President Donald Trump made if Iran were to do just that during the speech he delivered at the United Nations GA.

Currently Iran exports 2.6 million barrels of oil a day - that is up from 900,000 daily barrels in 2015, before the sanctions were lifted. It is a three-fold increase.

President Trump explained that the deal with Iran was one of the worst deals in history and during the campaign he threatened to rip up the deal. He hinted at that again during his UN speech.

But Iran's oil exports are not a violation of the terms of the famous nuke deal. They are pushing the OPEC quotas. Actually, that is good for the rest of the world as it will force down the price of oil in the world market.

It seems that Iran is making more money, but less per barrel. It is a mistake to cap them. An unintended consequence of Iran continuing to increase their exports is that they may, at the same time, break OPEC's control of the price of oil in world markets.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Russian Defense Min To Visit Israel

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Sergai Shoigu, Russia's Defense Minister, is going to visit Israel in October. The exact date of the trip has not been made public.

This is the first trip to Israel by a Russian defense minister in decades. One topic under discussion during this trip will most definitely be Syria. The Russian and Israeli defense ministers will discuss Iran's role in Syria and Hezbollah. At issue is how involved Iran will be in the future of Syria.

Heavy weapons will also be a very important topic.

Israel has stated their red lines very clearly to Russia. Israel will not permit a long term Iranian presence in Syria. Israel is asking Russia to make certain that Iran not remain there.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Saudis at UN - No Excuse for Not Resolving Israeli PA Conflict

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The UN General Assembly is most often a tedious waiting game - waiting to listen to speaker after speaker rehash old ideas and make vague, never to be fulfilled threats or promises.

Saturday was different. That's the day Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al Jubeir made a surprise pubic pronouncement during his speech at the UN.

Al Jubeir said that there is no reason for the Israeli / Palestinian conflict to continue. He did not lay blame. He just said it can and should be resolved.

The Saudi foreign minister said: "The Arab-Israeli conflict is still the longest conflict in the region in current times ... We don't see a justification for its continuation, particularly when there is international consensus about the solution based on two states."

Bottom line is that world pressure should be brought upon the parties to resolve the issue. World powers are already in agreement. Now the conflict must be resolved.

To make that happen, the United States must pressure Israel. Saudi Arabia will take care of pressuring the Palestinians.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Israel Downs Iranian Drone

By Micah Halpern

 

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday Israel launched a Patriot missile and shot down an Iranian-made drone.

The drone took off from Damascus airport and flew toward Israel. When the drone hit the buffer zone between Israel and Syria, Israel launched a Patriot and shot down the drone.

Drone parts were found scattered in the area of Qunetra.

IDF spokesman Brig General Ronen Maelis said the [t]he drone "took off from the Damascus Airport towards the Golan and operated in the buffer zone, without infiltrating Israel."

The IDF spokesman is clearly suggesting that the drone was sent by Hezbollah, made by Iran and sponsored by Syria.

Israel will always aggressively protect its borders and not permit any drone to collect intelligence along its borders.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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UN Head Against Kurd Vote

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The Kurds of Iraq are going to vote for independence on September 25th.

Secretary General of the United Nations Antonio Guterres just announced his displeasure with the referendum. He said that this vote, at this time, would detract from the immediate need to destroy ISIS.

Guterres' spokesman, Stephane DuJarric, explained that the Secretary General respects the "sovereignty, territorial integrity and unity," of Iraq. He further explained that any differences should be resolved through dialogue and compromise -- and through unilateral moves like a referendum of secession.

The Secretary suggests that the entire situation be approached with "patience and restraint."
Depending on the reaction to the September 25th referendum, there could be a massive genocide of the Kurds.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Snapchat Shuts Al Jazeera in Saudi Arabia

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Snapchat shuttered its portal to Al Jazeera in Saudi Arabia.

On September 13th Saudi Arabia asked Snapchat to shut down Al Jazeera down and yesterday they did just that.

Al Jazeera is a media group located in Qatar and owned by a very rich businessman who is also a member of the royal family.

For months there has been a huge dispute between Qatar and the other Gulf States - especially Saudi Arabia. The Saudis have led the charge against Qatar mainly because Qatar has reached out to Iran and been brought under their umbrella.

Sunni Qatar did the unthinkable and went over to the Shiites. The Saudis are making them pay for their defection.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Turkey & ISIS

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Turkey arrested 74 people on charges of being ISIS members.

Interestingly the only 1 of the arrested was Turkish, all the others were foreigners. The 73 are being prepared for deportation. The report did not name the countries to where they will be deported and the countries from where they came.

The local Turk was being interrogated.

Turkey intersects with ISIS in 2 ways. Turkey is the easiest point of access for all those who want to join ISIS. From Turkey future ISIS fighters slip over the border into Syria.

ISIS is attacking Turkey within its own borders and has been organizing and perpetrating terror attacks to attempt to destabilize Turkey. Turkey knows that they need to confront ISIS. They must stop any and all ISIS activity.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Israeli PM & Mexico Agree to Help Central America

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu met Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto on Thursday. This is the first time in the history of Israel that a sitting prime minister visited Mexico.

Netanyahu and Nieto agreed to update their 2000 free trade agreement. To quote Netanyahu: "We have agreed to establish and begin the ... negotiations to look over this agreement so that the commercial relationship between both nations intensifies and grows."

The most significant element of this agreement is that Israel agreed to help Mexico and the United States develop Central America.

This is a very important strategic move for Israel, they have much to contribute in this space. Over the years Israel has developed an expertise in helping African nations develop in the areas of agriculture, electricity, water, health and medicine.

Israel can do for South America what they do for Africa.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Iran & Turkey To Get Some of Syria

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Ashraq al Awsat is an Arabic language newspaper headquartered in London. It is one of the most influential media outlets in Arabic.

Yesterday the paper covered a story about Iran and Turkey being very close to a coming to terms on a formal agreement pertaining to Syria. The agreement is under the auspices of Russia because Russia is actually the controlling force in Syria.

The main points of this agreement are frighteningly problematic.

Turkey will get a presence in north western Syria called the Idlib region. In exchange for that, Iran will get control over an area in southern Damascus. The area is heavily Shiite and includes a very important Shiite Mosque by the name of Sayyidah Zaynab. In addition, Iran will expand the mosque.

This agreement will guarantee Iran's involvement in Syria. It will be the basis for Iran's involvement on the ground in Syria and in the capital and will allow Iran influence and access to decisions in the Syrian capital.

And Russia will be pulling all the strings.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Saudis Bust ISIS Terror Cell

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia made an official announcement stating that they have busted a ring of ISIS terrorists.

During the arrest Saudi authorities seized numerous explosives, triggers, grenades and weapons. The group had the materials used to make explosive vests and had practiced using them.

Two of those arrested were Yemini's living in Saudi Arabia under assumed names.
Two native Saudis were also arrested.

ISIS has set its sights on the Saudis. They want to hit Saudi Arabia with terror attacks and they want to unseat the Saudi royal family that runs the government.

The plan that was uncovered during this arrest was a design to blow up the Saudi defense ministry.

If ISIS successfully targets Saudi government symbols and creates a sense of fear among Saudi residents they will successfully weaken the fabric of Saudi life.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Conference w Israel and Muslims Postponed

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Bad news was announced by Israel's Foreign Ministry. There has been a significant setback in Israel's effort at normalizing relations with Africa, including with many Muslim countries.

From October 23rd to 27th, in a city called Lome, the capital of Togo, there was supposed to be conference of 54 African countries. Israel was counting on participating. The conference has been postponed.

It was cancelled by the president of Togo. He succumbed to pressure and to the fear of violence in his streets if the conference were to go on as planned.

When Israel was informed of the cancellation of the conference, it was agreed that another conference, one between Israel and Togo, would be arranged. The official response was that their conference was moved "to a date to be agreed upon between the two countries."

The Lome conference was originally seen by Israel as a sign of the massive success of their outreach to Africa.

The cancellation did not come out of the blue. Many countries tried to derail the conference. South Africa, for example, was particularly vocal. The Palestinians were working hard to find a way to prevent Israel from participating and that included trying to cancel the conference.

For the Palestinians, their effort paid off. For everyone else, it's an unfortunate loss.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Russia and Saudi Agree to Safe Zones

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Abdel al Jubeir, and Russia, Sergei Lavrov, met and emphasized that the three de-escalation zones now in Syria are not a framework for dividing up Syria in the future. The de-escalation zones are supposed to be quiet areas that are in the regions where the ceasefires have been in effect and where air force flights are off limits.

There is, however, a plan to create a 4th zone soon.

Lavrov said: "The purpose of the de-escalation zones is to stop the violence." ... "It is not a permanent measure, and nobody who agree those zones has an intention of keeping them for good, thus in fact having long-term enclaves in the Syrian territory."

He continued: "The agreement is their term is six months, and it is clear already the result is evident,
the ceasefire is generally observed."It is important to realize that the de-escalation zones are supposed "to begin spreading across Syria the space, where ceasefire is observed, where peaceful life is developing."

People are expecting that this agreement might set the stage for a peaceful end to this conflict in Syria. But for now, we are only talking about baby steps.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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ISIS Has 11,000 Blank Passports

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The German weekly Bild am Sonntag reported that ISIS may have as many as 11,000 official blank Syrian passports. That is stunning news.

These are not counterfeit passports, they are real McCoy. All the forger needs to do is insert the personal details and a picture.

Bild also reported that an addition 7,000 blank passports are in the hands of other nefarious groups.

The terrorists responsible for the simultaneous terror attacks that killed 130 people in Paris in November of 2015 all had fake Syrian passports.

The Bild am Sonntag is the Sunday division of a daily paper. It is a broadsheet and it emphasizes scandals, but it is a serious newspaper and its material should be trusted.

Good work.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Saudis To Cut Oil Prudction

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Saudi Arabia announced that as of October, they will be cutting oil output. This Saudi decision is in line with the decision made by OPEC to reduce the amount of oil being sent to refineries.

Saudi Arabia will drop production to all their customers by 380,000 barrels per day. The largest consumer of oil in the world is the Asian market. Japan will most certainly be hurt by this reduction.

Europe normally gets 225,000 barrels per day from the Saudis. In October they will be cut to anywhere from 70,000 to 155,000 barrels. That is nearly a 30% reduction.

Even exports to the United States will be cut.

OPEC needs this to happen. They need to lift the price of oil. In January oil sold at $58 per barrel.
Now the price has dropped to $50, sometimes climbing only as high as $54.
OPEC is counting on this reduction in output - especially by the Saudis, to force the price of oil up.
They are hoping the price will level out at over $75 per barrel.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Hitler Bell in Germany

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

A small town in Germany still has a Hitler Bell.

What's a Hitler Bell? A Hitler Bell is a bell inscribed with a swastika and a quote from Hitler. This quote reads: "Everything for the Fatherland" - Adolph Hitler.

The small German town is called Herxheim am Berg. The bell is situated in a Protestant Church. It is causing quite a hoopla.

The mayor of the town defended the bell. He was so defensive that he even quoted a 95 year old resident who said that the Nazi period also had some "good things."

Obviously, most Hitler Bells and other Nazi and Hitler structures were destroyed immediately after World War II. No one can explain why this bell remained.

The best answer is that no one thought it necessary to remove it. That, in and of itself, is telling. And as for the mayor, he has since resigned.

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Godiva Becomes Muslim

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

I just read an article in the Israeli daily Haaretz. It was about Godiva Chocolate and its current owner, the Turkish company Yildiz.

In April, Yildiz quietly ended all alcohol infused chocolate production. There are those who believe that the new Godiva has become heavily - maybe even overly, influenced by Islam.

The story of Lady Godiva is about as far from the tenets of Islam as one can get.

Godiva Chocolate was created in 1926 in Brussels. An image of Lady Godiva, after whom the company is quite obviously named, appears on every chocolate wrapper and chocolate and on the label of every box. She appears on horseback and nude, but covered up by her long hair. According to legend and lore, Lady Godiva rode nude through Coventry and the only person to peek at her was Peeping Tom looked.

In 1958 the first store opened in Paris, the chocolate company came to New York in the 1960's. Soon after, Godiva was bought up by the Campbell Soup company. And then, in 2008, It was bought by the Turkish company Yildiz.

The company has grown and few people even know of the Islamic connection. Islam never impacted on the product - until now.

Micah@MicahHalpern,com 

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IDF War Games Send Message

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Israel's IDF is in the middle of its largest war exercises in the past 20 years. The war games, taking place from September 4 through September 14, are being played out in the north of Israel - on Israel's Lebanese border and their border with Syria.

Every year Israel conducts war games in that area. This year's games are different. These games are designed to send a very clear message to Hezbollah, Iran and Syria.

Not much information has been released about the war games. But we can certainly assume that the IDF will utilize the multi-layered components of Israel's defense system.

There are three stages to these war games. First is an airstrike. Second is a ground strike. Third is a move to push invaders back over their borders.

Variations of this exercise have always beneficial to IDF forces and their commanders. This year, even more so. This year IDF's war games are doubling as a media message to the enemy.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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35,000 Radical Muslims in England

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Gilles de Kerchove, the European Union's counter-terrorism coordinator, gave his evaluation on the future of terror in Europe. Using England as an example, he said that the "The United Kingdom has identified 20,000 to 35,000 radicals."

Breaking down the radical groups even further, de Kerchove went on to explain that "3,000 are
worrying for MI5, and of those, 500 are under constant and special attention."

By comparison, de Kerchove said that "France has 17,000. Spain many less, but more than 5,000 I suppose. In Belgium almost 500 have been to Syria and there are around 2,000 radicals or more."

In short - Europe is infested with potential terrorists. De Kerchove said, "I wouldn't like to put a concrete figure on it, but (in Europe) tens of thousands, more than 50,000."

De Kerchove has a plan for dealing with these potential terrorists. "We must select those who are really worrying and the most dangerous, and they should be monitored 24 hours a day, seven days a week."

His conclusion is based on the principle that terrorists need not travel to the Middle East anymore. "The propaganda of the organization no longer requires people to go to the caliphate. They can attack in their places or origin, including on a small scale with home-made weapons."

This is a sobering and welcome evaluation. It means that Europe and European leadership is finally waking up to the threat of terror. Hopefully, this message will be received by those people who can benefit from the evaluation.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Putin Meets Xi about N Korea

By Micah Halpern

I've Been thinking:

Russia and China are worried about the latest North Korean nuclear test.

The two presidents, Putin and Xi Jinping, said that they are working together to "appropriately deal with" the North Korean nuclear saber rattling.

The two are meeting in the Southern Chinese city of Xiamen as part of the BRICS economic group. BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. They are a group of five fast growing emerging economies and they meet to compare notes and assist one another with their growth.

China and Russia are clearly untied in their objective to keep North Korea from advancing its nuclear capabilities. The best way to achieve that end is to coordinate their approach and next steps.

This meeting underscores for us just how closely aligned Russia and China are. They are on the same page and they are speaking at the highest of levels.

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IAEA Says Iran Following Nuke Deal

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Looks like Iran is following the nuke deal.

Yesterday, the IAEA, the international agency that is the watchdog supervising Iran's nuclear development, delivered its 3rd report on Iran since January.

They concluded that Iranians are following both the spirit and the letter of the famous - or, as some consider it - the infamous, nuke deal of March 2015.

This is important news.

The White House has accused Iran of violating the deal. Congress has asserted that Iran is playing footloose and fancy free with the deal. But the only group qualified to actually determine whether Iran is cooperating is the International Atomic Energy Agency.

And they say that everything is A-OK.

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