Revolution May be Starting in Iran

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

There are signs of revolution in Iran.

Every year since 2009, a series of rallies take place in various cities throughout the Islamic Republic. The rallies commemorate the Green Revolution that almost ousted the theocracy.
This year is different.

The rallies are becoming protests. They pop up with more and more people, thousands and sometimes even tens of thousands, in attendance. They pop up simultaneously in dozens of cities and towns, big and small, across Iran.

Watching videos of the rallies is impressive. Throngs of mostly young Iranian males are gathering and Iranian leadership is not pleased. Iran is attempting to stop the social media that promotes and then proudly showcases the events.

An interesting twist is that Iranian President Rhouhani spoke and said that Iran needs to focus on economics and internal issues, not Syria and Palestine. The president said that the real enemy of Iran is not the U.S. or Israel but is economics and the local issues surrounding Iran. By that he means Saudi Arabia.

This move away from tradition, propelled by the Iranian masses, may be just the opportunity Rhouhani needs. If he can grab on and ride the wave he may be able to move Iran in the direction he promised to take.

In the meantime, however, thousands of rally attendees have been arrested. Police are showing some restraint and not attacking the protesters, just arresting them. The demonstrators are shouting for economic opportunity.

Women in burkas have taken to the streets, as well. In their own separate, rallies, they too are asking for economic change.

In the next few days we will be able to determine if this is a massive movement or a passing fad.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Protests in Iran - 1000 Arrested

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

There were protests in Mashad, Iran yesterday. The protestors shouted "Death to the dictator", "Death to [Hassan] Rouhani", "Don't be afraid, we are together", "Not Gaza, nor Lebanon, my life for Iran." They also shouted "long live Reza." That is a shout for the Shah.

There are reports that Iran arrested 1000 protestors.

Mashad is the second largest city in Iran located in north east Iran.

The protests illustrate a real crack in the Iranian system, it proves that people are willing to go to jail in order to express their dissent against tyranny and religious dictatorship.

People who live in Iran and are willing to chant "Don't be afraid, we are together," "Not Gaza, nor Lebanon, my life for Iran" are not afraid of the consequences.

Even more and more people will attend the next protests - but there are only so many prisons in Iran.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Russia to Sell Turkey S-400 Missiles

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Russia and Turkey have come to an agreement. Russia will provide Turkey with 4 S-400 surface-to-air missile systems.

The missile batteries will cost Turkey $2.5 billion. They will be delivered by 2020. Upfront, Turkey will have to pay 45% of the cost. The other 55% will be a loan repaid to Russia over time.

The West is not happy with this arms deal.

The S-400 is not on the NATO weapons list and so it does not fit into the NATO system. Turkey is a member of NATO and weapons lists are there in order to provide smooth transitions and an understanding between members.

Turkey is the first NATO nation to acquire the S-400. This might be a game shifter. The S-400 is Russias most highly developed surface-to-air missile system.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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PA Arrests Famous Arafat Crony

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

If you criticize Palestinian President Abbas or his government you can get arrested. If you are a public person who commands a following, your arrest is more than likely.

Mohammed al-Dayya, a retired Brigadier General in the Palestinian National Security, Service was arrested for his critique of Abbas.

Not only was he a general, al-Dayya was also Yasser Arafat's person security guard. Arafat went nowhere without al-Dayya.

The al-Dayya family was stunned by the arrest and issued the following statement: "we were surprised by the unfair and illegal arrest of our militant son, Brigadier General Mohammed al-Dayya, by the Palestinian military Intelligence Service four days ago."

There are serious doubts about whether the Palestinian Authority is a democracy.

This arrest once again proves that personal rights and democracy are not a foundation of the PA.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Wall to Wall Suppport for Jerusalem

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Jerusalem is a hot button international issue these days.

In Israel, however, there is no debate about the status of the nation's capital. In Israel, there is wall to wall consensus item.

The leader of the Yesh Atid party, Yair Lapid, made the point clearly and succinctly. He said: "I will not negotiate over Jerusalem. We're better off with no peace agreement than with an agreement that divides Jerusalem."

Yesh Atid is a center left party that has marketed itself as the conscious of Israel. If Yair Lapid is so clear about Jerusalem, rest assured that most of Israel is of the same mind.

Right and left in Israel are all in favor of maintaining Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. They all agree that Jerusalem should be the seat of all foreign diplomatic representations.

It is - simply put -- a no brainer.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Guatemala To Move Embassy to Jerusalem

Monday December 25, 2017

 

I've Been Thinking:

Guatemala has announced that it is going to follow US President Trump's decision and move their embassy to Jerusalem.

Costa Rica and El Salvador once had their embassies in Jerusalem. Paraguay, Honduras and Guatemala had their embassies just outside Jerusalem in the city of Mivaseret Zion. By 2006, all of these countries had moved their embassies from the Jerusalem area to Tel Aviv to placate Yasser Arafat and the PLO.

At the time their move was a major blow to Jerusalem. But now it looks like some of those countries are starting to return.

Here is the Guatemalan announcement: "We spoke about the great relationships we have had as nations since Guatemala supported the creation of the State of Israel. One of the most relevant topics was the return of the Embassy of Guatemala to Jerusalem."

"I inform you that I have given instructions to the Chancellor [Foreign Minister] to initiate the process to make it possible. God bless you.:

Kudos to Guatemala for refusing to be intimidated by the PA, by the UN, by the overwhelming number of other countries, large and small, too scared to stand up for Israel and Jerusalem.

Micah@MicahHaplerncom

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Russia in Syria for Another 49 Years

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The Duma is the Russian parliament. Yesterday Russian President Vladimir Putin submitted a resolution to the Duma and it passed hands down.

The Duma extended the Russian lease on their naval base in Syria for another 49 years.

The ramifications of that resolution are far reaching. Russia will be permitted to remain in Syria as a military force for decades. The resolution even enumerated the types of vessels that could be in port.
It permits nuclear powered ships and subs.

The agreement was hammered out between Putin and Syrian president Bashar Assad.
In the end, it just needed to be ratified by the Duma.

All this is important. But even more importantly, this agreement shows that Putin and, by extension, Russia believe the person who makes decisions for the present and the future in Syria is Putin.

And it seems that Assad agrees.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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UN General Assembly Votes

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The UN is an institution that provides some essential services to needy people all over the world. It is also an institution fraught with problems.

The goings on in the General Assembly is a classic example. There are 193 member nations and 2 permanent observers in the GA. Of those, there are only about 15 real democracies and another 50 flawed democracies. The rest are authoritarian, autocratic regimes that include monarchies and dictatorships.

The decision by the General Assembly to vote on acknowledging Israel as the capital of Israel is a direct attack against the United States.

The US is correct to be insulted and it is understandable to want to "take names." There is no reason for the US to support countries that choose to publicly teach the United States a lesson.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Abbas Visits Saudi King

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas traveled to Saudi Arabia to meet with the King and the Crown Prince.

Abbas was summoned by the Saudis to discuss President Trump's Jerusalem announcement. There is no way to know what went on in the meeting. But it is safe to say that the Saudis were there to give support and guidance. Most importantly, the Saudis probably spoke of their own proposal - the one which discusses Jerusalem.

The Saudi proposal suggests that Abu Dis, a village next to Jerusalem, become the capital of the Palestinian State.

Abu Dis is in Area B which is under Palestinian political control and Israeli military control. It is both in Jerusalem and not in Jerusalem at the same time. It is in Abu Dis that Arafat began building his parliament building.

The Saudis are going to give Abbas the coverage and protection he needs to start accepting these proposals and so as not to lose face with his own people back home in the West Bank.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Miss Iraq & Miss Israel

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

It all started with a selfie at a Miss Universe competition. Miss Israel and Miss Iraq took a selfie during the pageant. The caption under their photo was about peace.

The picture went viral. And then Arabs around the world - especially in Iraq, went crazy. Miss Iraq's family has been threatened and they have escaped to the United States.

Miss Iraq tried to explain that she was not condoning Israel's actions or in any way abandoning the Palestinians.

Miss Iraq also posed in a bikini - that was another major problem.

Miss Israel and Miss Iraq continue to interact with each other.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Turkey To Open Embassy in East Jerusalem for Palestinians

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, while delivering a speech, Turkish President Erdogan announced that he wants to open his embassy in East Jerusalem as a way to emphasize that Jerusalem is the capital of Palestine.

Erdogan's comments are a direct response to US President Trump's announcement that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel. The announcement comes only days after Erdogan hosted a summit of 58 Muslim nations who condemned the Trump announcement.

So what does it really mean? Erdogan said that East Jerusalem already has a Turkish consulate general in East Jerusalem that is staffed by an ambassador. It should be easy to transition the office from a consulate to an embassy.

Erdogan said: "God willing, the day is close when officially, with God's
permission, we will open our embassy there."

Also yesterday, Iran issued a statement announcing that they have invited Palestinian President Abbas to visit later this week. Abbas' office denies that he received an invitation. Iran is trying hard to be a uniting force for Islam. At this point, Abbas is queasy about getting involved with Iran.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Church Bombed in Pakistan

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Earlier today a double suicide attack in a church in Pakistan killed 8 people and wounded 42. The numbers will continue to climb.

The BethEl Memorial Methodist Church was packed with nearly 400 people as services began. 2 suicide bombers entered the church and began shooting indiscriminately.

No one has yet to claim responsibility. Given the situation, the perpetrators were probably a branch of the Taliban in Pakistan called Jamaat ul Ahrar. But it could also be an ISIS group.

Pakistan is home to 3.5 - 4 million Christians of the total 200 million citizen population. They compose about 1.6 percent of the population.

Attacks against Christians are becoming more and more common - not just in Pakistan but throughout the world, especially the Islamic world.

More attention needs to be focused on these attacks. World leaders need to be influenced, even forces, to take the proper and necessary steps to protect their Christian populations.


Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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US Shoots Flares at 2 Russian Planes

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Two Russian fighter jet SU-25's crossed the de-confliction line - they crossed over into the section of the Euphrates River in Syria that has been designated the US side. They crossed back and forth several times.

The US warned the Russians to stop what they were doing, but they were ignored. Finally, the US launched F-22's to escort the Russian planes back over the Euphrates. The US fighter jets also shot flares at the Russian jets.

The incident was confirmed by US military leadership. The source also confirmed that a Russia SU -35 was also present. The entire episode only took a few minutes.

These conflicts provide important back-stories to the interplay between Russia and the United States in the political arena.

Tensions between Russia and the United States continue to ebb and flow.


Micah@MicahHalpern.com


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Muslim States Try To Take A Stand

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday, in Istanbul, Turkish President Erdogan hosted a conference of the Organization of Islamic Countries.

57 Muslims countries came to the conference that was hailed as the "Extraordinary Session of the OIC." The purpose of the summit was to counter US President Donald Trump's announcement that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel.

This summit denounced the Trump announcement as: "irresponsible, illegal and unilateral." The group said that the announcement was "null and void legally" and an attack on the rights of the Palestinians.

They participants said that President Trump actions are: "deliberate sabotage of all efforts to achieve peace, feeds extremism and terrorism and threatens global peace and security."

Sounds like pretty ominous responses - but in the end, all these statements by the OIC will amount to a big nothing.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com


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Israel Has New Tech To Discover Tunnels

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Ever wonder how Israel discovered not one but two terror tunnels crossing from Gaza into their sovereign land? The tunnels opened up well within Israel and were designed to enable Hamas and Islamic Jihad access in attacking Israelis and kidnapping Israeli soldiers.

Israel discovered the tunnels by using their new very unique technology. The system is called "the lab."

The lab harnesses human intelligence, scientific brain power, computers and other machinery and guides users to uncover tunnels. The lab uses an algorithm that literally takes all the guess work out of finding tunnels.

This is the first time In history that a mechanism has been developed to discover tunnels. It is pure math and science. In other words, the lab actually has done the impossible - it finds something that until now was undetectable.

Hamas is dumbfounded. . The lab is top secret. But it is certainly working. This new
defense, when applied in full operation, will effectively protect Israel and destroy one of Hamas' most effective and aggressive weapons. There is no reason it cannot be used to discover Hezbollah's tunnels, too.

Hamas may be forced to prematurely use their incomplete tunnels to attack Israel before the tunnels are discovered. It is a risk Israel faces, but an unlikely one.
Hamas does not want to escalate tensions with Israel at this time. But neither can they afford to just loose their investment in their tunnels. It is an issue of pride as well as money.

Given the effectiveness of the lab, Hamas will have to either ratchet up their tunnel use or throw in the towel and abandon it totally.

I predict Hamas will try one more time with their tunnels and then scrap tunnel warfare completely.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com


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Putin Sent the Day in the MidEast

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Russian President Putin spent yesterday in the Middle East. His first stop was Syria where he met with Assad and proclaimed victory over ISIS.

Then he flew to Cairo for important meetings with al Sisi. Along with their discussions, they signed an agreement to resume commercial flights between Russia and Egypt. Russia had cancelled all flights to Egypt after ISIS blew up a Russian charter plane as it reached altitude after taking off from a Sinai airport.

Putin ended the day in Turkey. There, he lashed out at Trump and the United States for the decision to recognize Jerusalem the capital of Israel. Putin said that this decision will derail any chance of a mutual Israel Palestinian agreement.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Israel Destroys Another Terror Tunnel

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Israel destroyed a terror tunnel this weekend. The tunnel started in Gaza, crossed under the Israeli border and ended up several hundred yards into an Israeli agricultural area.

The tunnel was discovered almost two weeks ago and Israel has been monitoring all activities until they destroyed it. There was no one inside.

This tunnel is the second tunnel in a month that was destroyed. The previous tunnel was built by Islamic Jihad.

There were no weapons in the tunnel and it was destroyed very differently than others. It was not hit by missiles from the air but collapsed by ground equipment.

It appears that Hamas was aware that the tunnel was discovered because there was no real usage of the tunnel during the time that it was being monitored.

Only minutes before Israel destroyed the tunnel, Hamas made an announcement that Israel would pay a heavy price for their actions. The Hamas message said that Israel will soon be taught a lesson.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Putin To Visit Egypt Ahead of Pence

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Much has been said about US Vice President Mike Pence's upcoming trip to the Middle East. President Trump mentioned it in his speech about

Jerusalem. Some Palestinians have proclaimed that the US VP is not welcome. Some have said that his meetings with Palestinian have been cancelled.

But here is a big surprise --- on Monday Vladimir Putin will visit Egypt for the day. He will meet with Egyptian President al Sisi. This is happening just days before US VP Pence will in Cairo.

Russia and Egypt just signed an agreement. The deal says that Russia will provide new fighter jets to outfit the Egyptian air force.

This agreement is significant in so many ways. Upgrading the Egyptian air force with Russian planes is a watershed. It brings Russia back in to the game. The original Egyptian air force is MiG based. So these new planes will augment the already Russia planes Egypt uses.

Putin and Sisi will discuss all the issues plaguing the Middle East especially ISIS and Syria.

This Putin visit will steal the thunder from Pence's visit.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Trump On Jerusalem -- Some Agreed

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

He did it. Yesterday US President Trump announced that the United States recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

Much of media focus immediately following the announcement centered on the negative including the potential negative reaction to the announcement.

They covered the threat of violence, days of rage, an act of war, unilateral steps by the United States that might damage the status of Jerusalem.

But there were also some very positive reactions to the announcement - and not just from Israel and lovers of Israel.

Kudos to the Philippines and the Czech Republic who decided to join the United States in recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital city.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Trumps Announces Jerusalem is the Capital

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

President Trump is threading the needle by announcing that the United States sees Jerusalem as Israel's capital.

It is actually not a real change at all. A US law, stating that the United States recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, has been around since 1995. It is called the Jerusalem Embassy Act of October 1995 and it passed by a vote of 93-5 in the Senate and 374 - 37 in Congress.

Fear of insulting the Arab and Muslim world has motivated US policy on Jerusalem for decades. It appears that President Trump is the first president in decades not to be afraid of ruffling these feathers.

President Trump is taking a calculated risk. There will be some flairs of displeasure but they will only be blips on the radar.

Trump is merely testing the waters by making the announcement. He is not moving the embassy. He is actually signing the waiver that has been signed every six months by every president before him since Bill Clinton.

If things go well, however, the embassy may indeed be moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Egypt Hitting Back at ISIS

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Egypt killed 5 ISIS terrorists in a shootout yesterday. In follow-up raids the Egyptians arrested 6 other terrorists. They also confiscated bomb materials and weapons.

Egypt has increased the pressure on ISIS. The Egyptians are dedicating significant resources, in multiple fronts, to find, capture, try and at times even kill ISIS terrorists. They need the momentum to change in their favor - despite all their efforts, ISIS is winning.

Thus far in Egypt ISIS has had the upper hand. They have successfully been striking, at will, across the country. Egypt recognizes the importance of confronting ISIS. They are one of the few countries taking the threat to their very existence seriously. They are also front and center as targets of ISIS.

Few countries have suffered as much as Egypt.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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PA Editor Says No Difference Btw Israel and DC

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:
Nasser Laham, the editor-in-chief of Ma'an, one of the most important Palestinian media outlets, said that the Jews control Washington and that there is no difference between Washington and Tel Aviv.

"The Jews rule in Washington and the Jews rule in Tel Aviv. What's the difference?" said Ma'an News Agency editor-in-chief Nasser Laham on Saturday in a television interview on his agency's own channel,

"It's the same if we negotiate with them (i.e. Jews) in Washington or in Tel Aviv. It's the same framework."

In his diatribe Laham actually mentioned Martin Indyk, the former US ambassador to Tel Aviv, saying that Indyk has more control over Washington now that he is a private citizen than he did when he was ambassador.

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Saudis Attack Hezbollah

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi anti-Iranian rhetoric is on the upswing. This time, Saudi Arabia has taken aim at Hezbollah, the Iranian backed Shiite militia in Lebanon.

Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al Jubeir said that Hezbollah has hijacked Lebanon and Hezbollah must be disarmed. He said that as long as Hezbollah controls a huge militia Lebanon will be unable to be productive and creative.

"Lebanon will only survive or prosper if you disarm Hezbollah." Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir told a conference in Italy. "As long as you have an armed militia, you will not have peace in Lebanon."

"Since 1979, the Iranians have literally got away with murder in our region, and this has to stop."
Iran has used its minions to wreak havoc on the region - and one of their very loyal proxies is Hezbollah. Part of the Iranian agenda is to destabilize Sunni areas and then move in and stabilize them and institute Shiite control.

Obviously, Iran's objectives are in direct conflict with the vital interests of Saudi Arabia.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Iran Sending Ships to Gulf of Mexico

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is sending warships to the Gulf of Mexico. They Iranians have issued this threat before and are bent on being at the doorstep of the US.

Over the past few years Iran has sent 47 flotillas in to international waters. One expedition took place last year when the Iranians successfully launched a fleet of naval ships into the Atlantic by sailing around the Horn of Africa. Now they are trying again.

"Our fleet of warships will be sent to the Atlantic Ocean in the near future and will visit one of the friendly states in South America and the Gulf of Mexico," Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi was recently quoted by Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency.

The Iranians want to expand their influence across the world and that includes taking a much larger role in sea power.

Naval commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari said that "sailing in open waters between Europe and the Americas should be the navy's goal, which will be realized in the near future."

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