By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Israel is a leader in drone and anti-drone
production and defense. There are many Israeli companies in this
segment of the market.
One company, Bluebird, just concluded a deal to provide 150 drones
to a certain unnamed European country. Elbit, a much larger company in
this niche, has sold over 1000 drones to an Asian country.
Israel needed to develop a defense system against drones coming from
Gaza and Lebanon. And they have. They developed drones that can carry
weapons and cameras. Some are tiny and some are huge.
Israel has also developed an anti-drone weapon that shoots drones
down with lasers. The laser dissipates after several hundred meters so
it will not damage anything beyond the target.
Before this new technology was developed the best way to strike a drone was with another drone.
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By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
A new study about Europe’s attitudes concerning
Jews and Israel has just been released. Be prepared, your worst
nightmares are about to be confirmed.
The study was conducted in sixteen European countries. One thousand
representative samples were culled with a degree of error from each
country of only 0.8%.
Here’s what they found:
20% of Europe believes that Jews control the world.
20% believe that Jews exploit the Holocuast for their own interests.
25% of respondents said that Israel’s policies explain why people hate Israel.
25% disagree with the statement that Israel is acting in its own defense.
33% agreed with the statement that during World War II people from their country suffered as much as the Jews.
The numbers are baffling. But they must be believed. Given the
representative sampling in this study, those surveyed accurately reflect
the attitudes of their nation.
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By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Hamas has announced that they have completed their attack against Israel. That’s not an easy thing for Hamas to say.
Hamas is stuck between the proverbial rock and the hard place. They
are stuck between two very different points of view and approaches.
On the one hand, Hamas defines itself as being about defense and
fighting Israel. Hamas’ message has always been that they are non-stop
fighters against Israel.
On the other hand, Hamas governs Gaza and they need to maintain calm.
Calm is defined by a society that can function. Hamas knows that as a
government, they cannot tolerate ongoing regular targeting by the
Israeli air-force.
That means that a cease fire and quiet becomes an essential
objective. Even though a cease fire and quiet with Israel is in direct
conflict with Hamas’ role as fighters and defenders of Gaza.
Hamas needs to embrace the ceasefire. They might just do it. Their self-preservation is at stake.
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By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Times are changing. I've said it before and I know I'll be saying it again - and again.
An Israeli rabbi was invited, as part of a group of interfaith leaders, to meet the King of Saudi Arabia in his palace.
Rabbi David Rosen spent 2 1/2 days in Saudi Arabia.
The group is called the King Abdullah International Center for
Interreligious and Intercultural Dialogue. Rabbi Rosen is a member of
the board.
Quoted in the Times of Israel, Rabbi Rosen said: “would not have
contemplated inviting us, and primarily me as a rabbi. This would have
been too much for them”. He went on to explain that, in this sense, the
reception at the royal palace was a “revolutionary moment.”
Rosen, is American Jewish Committee’s director of
interreligious affairs, was
one of nine KAICIID board members who
attended the meeting with King Salman, and the only interfaith leader
representing Judaism. The other eight attendees represented Buddhism,
Christianity, Hinduism and Islam.
According to the official statement of the organization: “The Custodian of the
Two Holy Mosques welcomed the board members, who were holding their
first meeting in Riyadh, and stressed the importance of KAICIID’s role
in consolidating the principles of dialogue and coexistence among
different religions and cultures, promoting the values of moderation and
tolerance, and combating all forms of extremism and terrorism.”
Other rabbis have visited Saudi Arabia, most notably Rabbi Marc Schneier, who met with the foreign minister earlier in February.
This is real change and real progress. But remember, these changes must be taken step by step, the process must go slowly.
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By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Iran just conducted their national elections. The result proved to be and it was a dismal failure for the leadership.
42% voter turnout. This was the lowest turnout in history - lowest since the 1979 Revolution.
"The turnout across the country was 42.57 percent," Interior Minister
Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli told a televised news conference on Sunday. "In
[the capital] Tehran, it was around 25 percent. Across Iran, over 24
million people voted.
Only 25% turnout in Teheran. And not for lack of trying. The
president had urged people to vote. The Supreme Leader, the Grand
Ayatollah, pronounced that it was a religious obligation to vote.
National elections happen every four years in Iran. In 2012 there
was a 66% turnout. In 2016 a 62%. This is the first dip below 50% -
significantly below 50% and 20% off the last election.
The election was a referendum on the government. People are
expressing their displeasure with the religious leadership. 1000’s of
candidates were disqualified by religious leadership including 84
sitting members of parliament.
The government and the Grand Ayatollah have a different reason, however, for the lackluster turnout. Coronavirus.
Iranian leadership is claiming that enemies of Iran and enemies of Islam spread terrible rumors of the virus.
In truth, until now, 50 Iranians have died from the virus. That is more than any other country outside of China.
Yes, there is a fear in being in crowded places like polling stations. But that’s not why voters didn’t out.
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Sunday February 23, 2020
I've Been Thinking:
Tensions are high. A potential escalation is obvious.
I'm talking about Gaza and the Israeli towns and farms situated near the Gaza border.
Over the past 48 hours over 400 rockets have been shot from Gaza
toward Israel. And Hamas in Gaza has said that if Israel targets any of
its leaders they will unleash their new advanced rockets. These
rockets, they said, have fire power that can and will target Tel Aviv
and threaten the economic foundation of Israel.
The situation was covered by the Hebrew press in Israel. It quoted
Hamas leaders from the Hezbollah paper Al Akhbar which is published in
Lebanon. It also quoted London based Al Jadida which wrote that Egypt’s
head of security visited Gaza to try to tamp down tensions. He was
probably the person who leaked information to the Arabic press.
Hamas governs Gaza. They ousted the Palestinian Authority in a bloody murderous coup in 2007.
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Micah D. Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
A Bahrain appeals court refused to allow the
appeal of a Bahraini who was convicted of burning an Israeli flag at a
protest in defense of Palesstinians in May.
The Supreme Court of Appeals did not even entertain reducing the
three year sentence of the leader of the group of about ten people who
were part of an illegal demonstration.
There has been some backlash on social media against the decision.
These critics claim that the Bahrain court of appeal’s decision was
based on cozying up to Israel.
Relations have, indeed, warmed between Israel and the Gulf States, including Bahrain.
So much so, that the Chief Sefardi Rabbi of Israel visited Bahrain in
December. And there are public photos of the ministers of foreign
affairs from both Bahrain and Israel together in Washington DC at the
State Department.
The world - including the Middle East - is changing. And not everybody is happy about that.
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By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
On March 2nd Israel will have their third national election. That's less than two weeks away.
The election is facing some unexpected complications.
One such complication is the Coronavirus. So, how does the
Coronavirus impact the Israeli election? Israelis love to travel. And
now, because of the virus, all travelers on flights coming from China,
Thailand and other Far East countries must be quarantined for 14 days.
That means that those Israeli citizens would not be allowed out of quarantine in time to vote on March 2nd.
To solve this issue the government has decided to deliver Israel’s
famous blue ballot boxes to the quarantine centers. This way everyone
who wants to vote, can vote.
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By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Earlier this week an Israeli commercial airliner flew over Sudan en
route to Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion airport. This was historic. Never
before had an Israeli commercial aircraft crossed into Sudanese
airspace.
It was all the result of a face-to-face meeting, earlier in February,
between the leader of Sudan Abed al-Fattah al-Burhan and Israeli Prime
Minister Netanyahu. The meeting took place in Uganda.
The historic flight took off from the Democratic Republic of Congo’s capital city, Kinshasa.
This is another example of change happening in the Middle East.
Another example of Israel’s integration into daily activities and
operations in the Middle East.
It is hard to conceive of the significance of this simple flight.
Fundamentally, it means that Israel is no longer at war with Sudan. It
means that Israel need not fear that Sudan will down an Israeli aircraft
crossing through their territory.
This is a transformative moment in the history of the Middle East.
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By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Syrian anti-air batteries shot and missed a
civilian Airbus A320 with 170 people on board. The plane was fired upon
while making its final approach into Damascus when it was targeted.
This flight, which shuttles between Najif, Iraq and Damascus, made an emergency landing at a Russian airbase in Syria.
Just last month, in mid-January, a civilian airliner was on its way
to Canada and was also shot upon by the Syrian air defense system.
There are several issues at play here. One glaring issue is that the
Syrians are aiming at - and missing, huge lumbering airliners after
shooting at them multiple times. Another major issue is that the Syrian
Air Force cannot differentiate between a civilian Airbus and a military
F-15.
That is ineptitude at its best.
The Russians are blaming Israel for Syria’s actions, just as they did
in September of 2018, when Syrian anti-air batteries shot and hit a
Russian plane. That time, they did not miss and Syria’s error resulted
in the killing of all fifteen people on board.
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By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Voter fatigue in Israel has set in.
On March 2nd Israel will have its third national election within twelve months.
And despite its importance, voter fatigue means people will not come out to vote.
When fatigue sets in, the political right is most often the winner.
Why is political fatigue better for the right than for the left?
Because traditionally, rightists are a more passionate group than
leftists.
That passion forces people on the right to vote - despite their fatigue.
In a few days we will know if that general rule holds true for Israelis.
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By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
The anniversary went almost unnoticed in the
United States because it was not covered in the press. But it was a date
to remember.
Tuesday February 11th was the 41st anniversary of the Iranian Islamic Revolution.
The Iranians remembered.
Hundreds of thousands of people gathered in Teheran’s central Azadi
Square to mark the day. Most of the speeches and most of the shouting
and chanting called for condemnation of the United States and tirades
against Israel.
Iranian citizens are restless and troubled. There is an upcoming
election in Iran and thousands of candidates have already been
disqualified by the Supreme Leader. Included in that group are ninety
current members of parliament.
The awful reality for Iranians is that US led sanctions against Iran
has taken a very serious toll on the people. It can be seen across the
country.
41 years ago Iran overthrew the Shah and created an Islamic country
that has been impacting the Muslim world ever since. I would argue that
most of that impact has been negative - but it was their desired goal.
Iranian Leadership wants to influence the Muslim world and guide that
world in their direction. They want to be the head of the non-Western
world.
Had the Nuke Deal continued and had the sanctions not kicked in, that would most probably have been the reality today.
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By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
An Al Jazeera host named Faisal al Qassem, host
of a program called The Opposite Direction, tweeted that Israel is the
most successful project of the past two centuries.
This is what he wrote: “For most Arabs, if they want to curse you,
they will describe you as a ‘Zionist,’ even though they know that the
most successful project in the current and last century is the Zionist
project”.
There was, as expected, blow back on twitter. So Qassem decided to ask his 5.5 million followers what they thought.
About 6,000 responses came in and well over 80% of them agreed that
Israel was more modern, more democratic and more technological than Arab
countries.
Qassem also hosted the IDF Arabic spokesman on his show via skype.
And of course, there were people who condemned him. Qassem’s response
was that people just do not understand history.
He said that in Arabic calling someone a Zionist is considered a
curse while it should be considered a compliment because Israel has
achieved what every Arab state merely promised.
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By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
After four attempts in a row Iran has failed, yet again, to successfully get their satellite into orbit.
The Zafar, which means victory in Farsi, was launched. But the
rocket on which it piggy backed did not reach a fast enough speed or the
altitude necessary to keep the satellite in orbit.
Iran has been launching satellites into orbit since 2009 and many of
them have been successful.
Most of them have been spy and
communications satellites. The Iranians would also contract with the
Russians and use their rockets.
Recently, however, the Iranians have wanted to do it on their own.
This requires more than knowledge - it requires better technology.
Most of the hardware must be imported and, given the sanctions and
restrictions placed on Iran, that is not an easy task.
Almost every element connected to a successful satellite launch can
and will be utilized in a ballistic (conventional and non conventional)
strike. That’s knowledge that is important for us to have.
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By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
The Palestinian Authority has issued a ban on
importing fruits and vegetables and carbonated drinks, mineral water and
juices from Israel.
This is a very bad idea.
The PA is responding to a decision by Israeli Defense Minister
Naftali Bennett to boycott certain PA produce. But Bennett was
responding to the PA boycotting Israei livestock. It’s a vicious cycle
of boycotts.
The problem for Palestinians is that the Palestinians need Israel
much more than Israel needs them. The PA economy is dependent on
Israel. Israel imports $55 million in fruits and vegetables per year
from the Palestinians. The Palestinians import $300 million from Israel.
The Palestinians could never produce and provide that amount.
Besides that is not what and how your economy should work. Buy what you
can't produce - that is the principle. Don't waste money on things
that can be made much better and more cheaply elsewhere.
Palestinians purchase over $100 million in bottled water from Israel alone.
This was a very bad decision.
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By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
When analyzing foreign affairs you can tell much
about a situation by looking at who supports and who rejects policies
and initiatives.
Sometimes, even without knowing all the details, you can get a good sense of a situation based on who is on whose side.
Much like the adage our parents often used about tell a person by their friends.
The Deal of the Century has gotten some very interesting supporters and some very typical detractors.
Arab leaders of the Gulf states are supporters of the deal. Iran rejects the deal.
The Supreme Leaders of Iran has dedicated several speeches to how the
deal “is no real deal at all.” He has said that “Palestine is for the
Palestinians.”
These are not significant critiques. However, there has been a very
significant statement echoed in all of his addresses. The Supreme
Leader of Iran has issued a call for “mass resistance”.
Mass resistance is a euphemism for Intifada.
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By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has
embarked on a diplomatic tour. He is meeting with the Muslim leaders of
Uganda and Sudan. The most significant Muslim leader on Netanyahu’s
roster is Abdel Fattah al Burhan of Sudan.
This is a dramatic move.
Netanyahu’s tour is the continuation of the momentum that Israel has
been developing over the past few years. It is also extremely troubling
- at least for the Palestinians and especially in the aftermath of the
Trump plan.
Just as Natanyahu is on a tour of Muslim countries, President Mahmoud
Abbas is on a tour.
His mission is to garner support for Palestinian
opposition to the plan.
Netanyahu’s success does not please the Palestinians.
PLO Secretary General Saeb Erakat articulated just how damaging the
meeting between the Sudanese leader and Netanyahu was to the
Paelstinians. He said the Monday meeting between Netanyahu and Sudan's
leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan is a knife in the back of the Palestinian
people.
That was a very powerful statement from a very articulate spokesperson for the Palestinians.
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By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Palestinian President Abbas literally told
Israel that they will have to live with the consequences of Trump’s Deal
of the Century. The statement by Abbas was his way of giving a
blessing to Palestinians to start a new Intifada.
They were fighting words.
Abbas departed Ramallah and went to Cairo to meet with the Arab
League. From Cairo Abbas will visit much of the Middle East and then
parts of Europe. He has an agenda.
The Palestinian president is drumming up support for his rejection of the Trump deal.
The only real tools that the Palestinians have are violence and the
threat of violence. But calling for an Intifada and having one actually
emerge are two different things. This is not the first time Abbas has
called for an Intifada.
The threat of violence and terror is a serious one.
The problem with these threats of violence and of an actual Intifada
is the youth. Youth need to be activated. They need to take to the
streets. But at this stage it is very unlikely that West Bank youth
will come swarming out to the streets.
The reason is simple - they are not very excitable. Like youth the
world over, simulated electronic war games are more intriguing than the
real thing. Safer, too.
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By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
The Arab League met on Sunday in an emergency meeting in Cairo.
The purpose was to show support for the Palestinians and for PA
President Mahmoud Abbas as he presented his rejection of US President
Trump's Deal of the Century.
Abbas repeated the message he delivered before. He would not accept
any message from Trump, not by phone and not by letter. He did not want
Donald Trump to say that the Palestinian president was consulted on the
plan.
In addition, Abbas cut all ties with Israel and the United States.
Diplomatic ties had already been severed. This time he severed security
interaction. Until now both the CIA and Israel have had very close
security links with Palestinian security. Those links have now been
cut.
I am willing, however, to speculate that those contacts will resume -
very quietly resume next week because it is an essential need on all
three sides. They all need to share information to stay safe. And the
PA needs it more than the United States and Israel.
Abbas is thinking about his legacy. He has repeated time and again
this past week, before and after the unveiling of The Deal, that he will
to be remembered as the person who betrayed Jerusalem.
The other issue he discussed was demilitarization. Abbas said it is simply unacceptable.
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