Egypt Court - Shut Gaza TUnnels

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Yesterday an Egyptian court ruled that Egypt must destroy the tunnels that connect Egypt and Gaza. The case was brought before the court because last year 16 Egyptian border guards will killed by Palestinians from Gaza who came through the tunnels with weapons.

The security of Egypt is at stake. The Egyptian court would not act if the violence was only one way, if it was directed only at Israel.

Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi's national security adviser Ossam Haddad has said on several occasions that Egypt cannot not permit the two-way flow of smuggled arms through the tunnels.
Ynet quotes Wael Hamdi, the lawyer that brought the case, and Judge Farid Tanaghou, who ruled that Egypt must destroy the tunnels.

Ynet reports "the court ruled to make it obligatory that the government destroy the tunnels between Egypt and the Gaza Strip." 

"I filed the case because I was worried about the state of national security in my country after the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood to power and its unclear policies and links with Hamas" said Wael Hamdi, the lawyer who brought the case.

1.5 million people travel through the tunnels every year. There are 450 major tunnels and 750 smaller ones. Some think that there are as many as 2000 tunnels. 1/3 of all of Gaza's imports come in through the tunnels.

While it hurt only Israel, Egypt turned a blind eye to the tunnels.

But now Egyptians must act because these tunnels add to the lawlessness and anarchy that pervades their country.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Nasrallah in Iran w/ Cancer

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

At this point I have no doubt that Sheik Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, departed Beirut by plane and went to Teheran.

The move was made in classic Middle East style. First, there were rumors. Then officials denied the rumors. And then came full blown press coverage explaining how he left and where he went.

As a rule, Sheik Nasrallah does not travel. When he does it is in total secret to reduce the risk of assassination. He very seldom leaves his secure home in Southern Lebanon. Leaving Lebanon and going to Iran now was a big risk, but a risk that needed taking. Nasrallah is said to be in a hospital.

Most Lebanese media coverage of the trip reported that the 52 year old leader of Hezbollah suffers from cancer - and it is getting worse. A second theory making its way around Lebanon and Syria is that Nasrallah wounded by Syrian rebel shelling and in need of Iranian medical attention.

If he has a full recuperation the entire episode will mean nothing except to show that Iran manages even the medical care their proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon.

However, if Nasrallah is hurt, or dies, or cannot fully return to his position there is the potential for real anarchy in Hezbollah.

That power vacuum will not be good for the West or for Israel.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Will US Keep Hormuz Open

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The Financial Times raised a very important issue in a piece they ran yesterday. The piece was about increased imports of oil from the Middle East, but that was not the profound part.

The Financial Times raised the following question: If the United States becomes more and more energy independent, as has been the trend and their objective, will the United States still devote and invest so many resources into keeping the Straits of Hormuz open.

The United States now dedicates huge amounts of military hardware and manpower to patrol the Straits of Hormuz and make certain that they remain free and open. The Straits run between Iran and Oman and about 33% of the world's oil passes through every day.

But if the United States is no longer a large purchaser of that oil, will they still protect the Straits?

The answer to that question was not given in the piece.
But the answer is probably --- yes.

The price of oil is determined internationally. A crisis anywhere, especially in the Middle East and even more so in the Straits of Hormuz, would mean a huge spike in the price of oil for the world and especially for the United States.

It would continue to be in the best interests of the United States to keep the Straits of Hormuz open and safe in order to keep the price of oil stable.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Ahmadinejad Admits Econ Harships

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The other day Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made an unusual and truthful comment on Iranian tv. It was picked up in the Washington Post but almost nowhere else.

Ahmadinejad said "[t]his was a very difficult year for our economy."

He went on with his assessment saying that the United States is engaged in a huge and powerful economic attack on Iran which has had an impact on Iran's economy. He said that many of the tactics the US and the Western world have applied against Iran have been unfair and certainly illegal.

Ahmadinejad then outlined his expectations for this coming year's economy saying that he anticipates growth in numerous markets. His big emphasis was on domestic production and export and self reliance. He explained that in 2013 Iran would emerge victorious against the United States in the economic war.

This admission is as revealing as it is extremely unusual. It is a signal to us that Iran was hit far more deeply than we expected.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Iran Marches to Nuke Status

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

In just a few days Iran will meet once again with Western powers to discuss the Iranian nuclear program.

One might naturally assume that in light of that looming event Iran would be on its best behavior. But no, not Iran. This weekend Iran announced that it is most certainly working to go online with nuclear technology.

The Iranians have announced a plan to open 16 new nuclear sites. They said that Busher was expected to be fully operational within the year. They also announced that they have discovered new reserves of uranium.

Originally it was thought that Iran would have to import uranium in order to service their nuclear capabilities.
With this new discovery Iran will no longer be reliant on the price of uranium, they will be able to provide their own.

Iran marches forward to unchallenged nuclear capabilities.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Al Qaeda in Syria

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Jabhat al Nusra is the most important group fighting against the ruling regime in Syria.

Founded on January 25, 2012 - only about 13 months ago - they continue to grow in ranks and have become very effective at striking regime targets. Attacks perpetrated by Jabhat al Nusra include car bombs in Damascus, bombing the TV station, suicide bombing in Aleppo, and the Taftanaz attack which was an attack against an air force base with 48 helicopters. This group has also been responsible for brutal executions in Sarqeb.

Jabhat means "the front" and Nusra means "support." It is often mis-translated as the Support Front but the full name of the group is, Jabhat al-Nusrah li-Ahl al-Sham and that means "The Front for the Support of the Syrian People." And "the front" refers to the battle front.

Jabhat al Nusra is al Qaeda. They are growing because more and more al Qaeda members are crossing into Syria to participate in the battle to oust Assad. They are also getting more and more defectors from the other anti-Assad rebel groups operating in Syria.

Those who cross into Syria to fight with them are well trained.
They bring weapons and other armaments. They swell the ranks of Jabat al Nusrah by several thousand a month.

The smaller rebel groups are purely anti-Assad. Jabat al Nusrah is Islamist. They embrace the entire al Qaeda line. But in the end, despite al Nusrah's expanding ranks, the numbers of the rebels are dropping fast.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Christians Live in Fear

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Since the Muslim Brotherhood rose to power in Egypt, the Christians there have been living in a precarious and especially dangerous situation.

And we only know half the story, because most anti-Christian attacks in Egypt go unreported.

This week Al Balad news service covered threats made to Coptic Christian religious leaders. The Coptic Christians were told to convert to Islam or die. These threats were issued in the city of Safaga, near the Red Sea. They were made by a new group called Jihad al Kufr which means "holy war against the heretics."

In Islam, the punishment for heretics is death.

In Fayoum this week the church was attacked - twice. Last week two boys, one nine years old and the other ten years old were arrested for desecrating the Koran. They were playing on a garbage heap and in the heap there happened to be some remains of a Koran.

On a subway in Cairo Muslim in hijabs and burkahs grabbed two Coptic Christians and forcibly cut their hair. That is the third time something an incident like this has been perpetrated.

The situation is not getting better for the Christians of Egypt. Of the 85 million people who live in Egypt, 9 million are Christians.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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