Friday, December 31, 2010

Christians Attacked in Iraq

By Micah Halpern
Friday December 31, 2010
I've Been Thinking:

In Iraq yesterday the homes of four Christian families were bombed. Two people were killed in the terror attacks.
This terror is part of larger Muslim/ Christian tensions in the Middle East.
The attacks were timed to coincide with Christmas and the Christmas season. Clearly, this is the work of Muslim extremists who refuse to accept alternative religious expressions.
These are the big questions: Why has Christian leadership been silent on this issue? Why hasn't Christian leadership been up in arms about this direct attack against Christians and Christian tradition?

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Israel Discovers Gas

By Micah Halpern
Thursday December 30, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Israel and the US energy company Nobel Energy jointly announced that they have discovered a reserve of 16 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The find is valued at $95 billion. This reserve is located 100 miles off the coast of Haifa.
This discovery is the largest natural gas find in of the last decade. This discovery will turn Israel into one of the world's great exporters of gas in the next few years. This reserve lies about 30 miles away from another recent find called Tamar, valued at $15 billion.
The name given to the newly discovered site is Leviathan... also known as the enormous beast.
These discoveries are true game changers - for the region and for the world.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Dahlan Under Investigation

By Micah Halpern
Wednesday December 29, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Once upon a time Mohammed Dahlan was considered the fair haired boy of Fatah - seen as a potential successor to Arafat and Abbas.
Today Dahlan spends most of his time abroad and is being investigated by Abbas and Fatah for financial irregularities and incitement against Abbas. He has called for Abbas' replacement and has said some impolite things about Abbas' son.

At one point Dahlan was expected by Washington be the next Palestinian leader. He was one of President Bill Clinton's absolute favorites among the Arafat team and a regular guest in the West Wing.

Dahlan was the man Washington DC thought could bring order and move the Palestinians to the next stages towards peace and statehood. He was the strong arm of Fatah especially in Gaza and was expected to be the Palestinian connection to the West.

All hopes for Dahlan were dashed in the summer of 2007 when Hamas expelled Fatah from Gaza and he was nowhere to be found. Since then, Dahlan has been a non-entity.

Now the fair haired boy of Fatah is under investigation by Fatah.


Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Presidential Elections in Egypt Sept 2011

By Micah Halpern
Tuesday December 28, 2010
I've Been Thinking:

Gamal Mubarak, the Policy Chief of Egypt's ruling party, also the son of current president Hosni Mubarak, made an announcement yesterday.

Presidential elections will take place in September of 2011. And in July, the party will decide who their nominee will be.

President Hosni Mubarak is 83 years old, has been elected 5 times and has been in power since 1981. He has not said that he will step down, but the widely held assumption is that Gamal will succeed him.

The next few months will be critical in determining if Gamal is prepared. There are serious questions about his skill, his public presence and whether he has the ruthlessness to control Egypt.

Gamal has no military background and will be spending much time cultivating the Egyptian army and air force - without them, there is no possibility of maintaining order and power in Egypt.
Over the next few months we need to watch the different roles Gamal plays and the responses to those roles. He may be the chosen candidate or maybe - Hosni will forge on for another term as president.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Monday, December 27, 2010

Christmas Muslim Terror

By Micah Halpern
Monday December 27, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
On Christmas day there was a slew of terrorist attacks against Christians by Muslim terrorists. The Pope, in his Sunday mass from St. Peter's Square in the Vatican, condemned the attacks.
These attacks should have come as no surprise - they were to be expected.
In Nigeria, two churches were bombed resulting in at least 32 deaths and critically wounding 70. A Church in the Philippines was also attacked.
Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa. Of the180 million people living in Nigeria, there is an almost even split between Muslims and Christians. The average wage in Nigeria is about $1200 per year.

Muslim / Christian relations throughout Africa are stressed and they will continue to be stressed. Al Qaeda is gaining more and more sympathizers. What most annoys these newly recruited Muslim terrorists is the public displays of the other religions within their borders and the fact that religions other then Islam are given recognition as equal or even viable alternatives to Islam.

And that is why terrorists target Christian churches on and around Christian holidays.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Sunday, December 26, 2010

Mossad Apology to England

By Micah Halpern
Sunday December 26, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The British Telegraph reported that the new Israeli Chief of Mossad was going to apologize to England for using stolen passports earlier this year during the famous assassination in Dubai of Hamas master terrorist Mabouh.

As a part of the apology comes a promise that the Mossad will not use forged or stolen British passports again in the future.

This kind of apology is tantamount to a public admission of guilt.
The objective here is to get Israel and England back on the same path, to get them once again working together on intelligence to make a safer world.
The new Israeli Chief of Mossad thinks that this goal is worth the cost of admitting responsibility for the infamous deed.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Saturday, December 25, 2010

Jordan Bans Anne Frank

By Micah Halpern Saturday December 25, 2010

I've Been Thinking:

Jordan has established an official committee of inquiry into a private school.
What did this private school do? Their curriculum includes an English textbook and in the English textbook there is a chapter about the Holocaust that includes several quotations from The Diary of Anne Frank.
How obtuse.
The committee is looking into other schools, checking to see if they, too, may be violating Jordanian law by teaching Anne Frank. According to Jordanian law all curriculum must be approved - and Anne Frank is not approved.
Here is the problem.
We know that Jordan is not a democracy. We assumed that it was an enlightened dictatorship. We assumed that the monarchy was liberalizing ideas and education while still holding a firm grasp on government and leadership.
We were wrong.
I personally have purchased several editions of the Protocols of the Elders of Zion in Jordan.
Forbidding the study of Holocaust and banning Anne Frank is just a mistake. It is self destructive for a government to try to silence the voice of a little child. Read her diary and you will understand.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Friday, December 24, 2010

Iran Meets Joins International Team

By Micah Halpern
Friday December 24, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
IRNA (Islamic Republic News Agency), the official Iranian news agency, reported yesterday that the acting head of the Iranian Navy attended a conference in Sri Lanka.
What makes this interesting to us is that also present at that conference were commanders of the United States Navy, the Russian Navy, the French Navy and the British Navy. 22 nations sent representatives to the conference which took place last month.
The conference was convened to discuss piracy. The objective was to try to create a united task force and a united strike force to directly confront piracy.
There is no doubt that piracy has gotten out of control. Without serious international effort and significant cooperation, there is almost no way to adequately put the genie back in the bottle. It is in the best interest of all those nations who participated in the conference to organize and then strike out against the pirates.
Iran is a significant player on the high seas. Iran needs to make certain that the seas are free of pirates. Iran was wise to attend this conference. So why did it take a month to announce that they attended ... that's the way it works in Iran.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Thursday, December 23, 2010

Iran & Turkey

By Micah Halpern
Thursday December 23, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Ahmadinejad travelled just over his border today. He ventured into Turkey where several sets of critical meetings are scheduled to take place.
Turkey is a member of the Security Council. The Turkish government has been siding with Iran against the permanent members of the UN Security Council.
Nuclear issues will certainly be on the Iranian/Turkish agenda. Turkey actually suggested that they host the upcoming nuclear talks and Iran readily agreed, but the European Union will not allow Iran to have such a home court advantage.
A meeting of Central Asian states, including Afghanistan and Pakistan, will also be taking place with Iranian participation. Iran wants to be taken seriously in that group. Ahmadinejad would like to sway these countries, also, to join him in changing world orientation away from the United States.
Ahmadinejad is a man with a mission.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Assange is Calling the Pot Black

By Micah Halpern
Wednesday December 22, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
You know the expression: a pot calling the kettle black. Here is a perfect example.
In an interview with the Times of London, Wikileaks founder and figurehead Julian Assange was angered because the trial document of his Swedish sex abuse trial have been leaked to the British newspaper The Guardian. The newspaper now has the task of deciphering the reams of cables and letters and comments and documents.
There is more than a hint of irony in this entire incident because the Guardian is one of the several news outlets handpicked by Assange to present his own massive leaks. Assange expressed his horror that the details are going unchecked into the mass media.
You know the cliche: what is good for the goose is good for the gander. Grow up Julian, grow up.

Micah@MIcahhalpern.com

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Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Brazil Lashes Out at US

By Micah Halpern
Tuesday December 21, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The president of Brazil has announced that there will never be peace in the Middle East as long as the United States is guardian.
Luiz Lula da Silva proclaimed that an end to US control of the Middle East would usher in an era of peace. He said: "There will not be peace in the Middle East as long as the United States is the guardian of peace. It is necessary to involve other countries in negotiations."
He then added that the unfair conditions other countries must withstand because of the United States is unjust - particularly the Iran and the sanctions that they confront.
Remember, Brazil, along with Turkey, voted not to impose sanctions against Iran in the most recent UN Security Council Meetings.
Brazil has bought into the world view that the United States should not be determining priorities and adjudicating who is right and who is wrong.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Monday, December 20, 2010

Turkey is Upset Again

By Micah Halpern
Monday December 20, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Turkey is up in arms over the agreement that was signed last Friday between Cyprus and Israel.
It was an agreement about maritime borders. It was an agreement about oil and gas drilling rights. It was an agreement about who owns what and where.
Turkey is livid because they do not accept Cyprus' authority to make such an agreement. Turkey disputes the very right of the Cypriot government to exist. Turkey controls half of Cyprus.
Cyprus is just the catalyst. This is another in a series of events that pits Turkey against Israel.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Sunday, December 19, 2010

Denzel Washington Comes to Israel

By Micah Halpern
Sunday December 19, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
On the cultural front it is always interesting to watch who comes to Israel and who cancels their trips to Israel. But let's talk about who comes.
This past week Denzel Washington, Pauletta, his wife of thirty years and his family, flew into Israel on a private jet.
As a family they visited Haifa and were hosted by Denzel's long time friend from acting school in New York City, Dr. David Davis. Davis is the head of Messianic Jews in Haifa.
The Washington family also visited Jerusalem, stayed in a prominent Jerusalem hotel (the Citadel of David Hotel) and visited the Old City and the Western Wall. According to rumor, which often turns out to be true, Denzel and Pauletta bought his and hers wedding rings spun from red gold and a few cigars, one of Denzel's passions.
In 2011, according to an announcement he made on Larry King, Bon Jovi and his legendary band will be performing in Israel.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Saturday, December 18, 2010

France To Transfer Missiles to Lebanon

By Micah Halpern
Saturday December 18, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
France just announced that they will be supplying Lebanon with 100 missiles by the end of February.
Why on earth would France do such a thing?
Both the United States and Israel strongly oppose this transfer of missiles to Lebanon.
But the French are doing it anyway.
The French believe that, given the tensions in Lebanon right now, the best way to stabilize the country is to bolster the standing government against Hezbollah. Hezbollah might very well attempt to take over Lebanon if the United Nations indicts their commanders for assassinating former Lebanese Prime Minster Rafik Hariri.
The obvious problem is that Hezbollah is stronger than the government's army.
That means that these 100 missiles will probably end up in the hands of Hezbollah.
And that is very dangerous.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Friday, December 17, 2010

Iran & West Near Deal

By Micah Halpern
Friday December 17, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The British Daily Telegraph website came out with a blockbuster last night.
According to their French diplomat source Iran and the West are about to close a deal - brokered by the Turks.
The deal would involve lifting sanctions against Iran and taking them out of the international doghouse. In exchange the Iranians would deliver 1000 kilo of low enriched uranium and all 30 kilo of their 20% enriched uranium to the West.
In other words, if this really is the deal, almost all the uranium that the Iranians have - certainly all the highly enriched uranium they possess, would be given over to Western nations.
It all, of course, comes with a price tag higher than the mere lifting of sanctions. The West would then supply Iran with already enriched uranium rods (even at 20%) to be used for medical research.
Sounds good, maybe too good.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Thursday, December 16, 2010

Terror Threats Over Christmas

By Micah Halpern
Thursday December 16, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Iraqi officials have announced that they have very specific information about plans to attack the West during this Christmas season.
The Iraqis assert that the botched Stockholm terror attack over the weekend was part of a program that targets Western cities.
The information comes to us via captured Al Qaeda terrorists. During their interrogation by Iraq, the terrorists admitted that Al Qaeda was plotting a set of massive attacks to strike at the heart of the West.
One can always assume that Al Qaeda is plotting against the West. From this intelligence it seems that Al Qaeda is close to turning their plot into real action.

Micah@MIcahHalpern.com

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Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Backlash in Iran Over Firing FM

By Micah Halpern
Wednesday December 15, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
They are feeling frustrated on the streets of Iran.
Iranians are responding negatively to the news that, on Monday, Ahmadinejad fired Foreign Minister Mottaki. There was no warning and no concern about backlash. And now - there is serious backlash.
The big question is: why. Mottaki was in Senegal at the time and received the news in the form of a letter from Ahmadinejad. He is embarrassed, even humiliated.
Politics in Iran have always been a powder keg. A decision of this kind and the response that it has elicited from Iranian society shows the enormous rift, the significant stress and the distrust among even supporters of the government.
Mottaki's job was to defend Iran. For all we in the West know, Mottaki was quiet at a time when Ahmadinejad wanted him to be on the attack.
Whatever the reason, we have to watch closely. We need to see where the chips will land.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Tuesday, December 14, 2010

EU Supports Gaza

By Micah Halpern
Tuesday December 14, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday the EU laid out important parameters defining their Middle East policy.
The EU made it clear that they were not going to recognize a Palestinian State. Now is not the time for such a declaration, they declared.
The EU also made clear their disappointment that Israel did not continue the moratorium on settlement, expressing "regret" over Israel's decision not to accept the US POV.
Then the EU promised to give significant aid to Hamas leadership and Gaza.
The European Union has undertaken the role of a very important intermediary between Israel and the Hamas. The European Union continues to pressure Israel to stop building.
In analyzing the entire EU POV from beginning to end it all the adds up to one thing. The EU is creating a soft cushion for the Palestinians.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Monday, December 13, 2010

Hamas Has Long Range Rockets

By Micah Halpern
Monday December 13, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Shaul Mofaz, chairman of the Israeli Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, came out with a clear and unequivocal assessment of Hamas on Sunday.
Mofaz said that if Hamas uses it longer range rockets to attack Israel, Israel will respond by destabilizing and unseating Hamas.
The point is obvious: it is one thing to shoot a few rockets at kibbutzim and small towns near the Gaza border, but if you plan on attacking a major Israelis city with a significant population - you can expect real retribution.
The implication is clear: if Hamas attacks, the Israeli counter attack will not be proportional.
Mofaz is saying that if pushed too hard, Israel will take out Hamas - all of Hamas, from infrastructure through leadership.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Sunday, December 12, 2010

OPEC KEEPS PRICES

By Micah Halpern
Sunday December 12, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
OPEC (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) conducted a very short meeting yesterday in Vienna.
The oligopoly of 12 nations voted quickly to keep the current oil output numbers.
OPEC members are pleased with the current price of oil at just below $90 per barrel. OPEC members realize that given the uncertainty of today's economy, a change in oil production could wreak havoc on the world's economy.
OPEC members were gladdened to hear that it is anticipated that the price of oil will slowly increase over the next year.

OPEC is doing only what is good for OPEC. The organization does not want to put any additional strain on the current sensitive and volatile market - that would potential cause damage to the larger world economy.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Saturday, December 11, 2010

Rockets Hit Israel

By Micah Halpern
Saturday December 11, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
A rocket launched from Gaza landed in an open area in Ashkelon yesterday.
An increasing number of rockets have been shot from Gaza these past few weeks. To put it into perspective, fewer rockets are being showered upon Israel now than there were two years ago - resulting Operation Cast Lead, Israel's invasion into Gaza. And what is that diminished number - so far this year, about 205.
Again, putting it in perspective, 205 falling rockets is a lot of rockets.
Israel is responding with air attacks. On Thursday the Israeli air force struck three sites in Gaza.
There is a significant difference between the Israeli and Gazan style of attack. Israel went out on targeted missions with the specific goal of hitting two terrorist training camps and a lone terrorist planning attacks against Israel. Rockets launched by the Palestinians are shots in the dark. The Palestinian objective is to cause as much fear as possible.
Rockets are part of a Palestinian terror plan to generate raw fear in the heart of all Israelis.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Friday, December 10, 2010

Turkish Israeli Diplomacy

By Micah Halpern
Friday December 10, 2010
I'm Predicting:
Since "the flotilla" in May, relations between Turkey and Israel have been frigid. And then last week, during the worst natural disaster in Israel's history, Turkey sent teams to assist.
In the interim back channel diplomatic and military relations continued between the two countries. When push comes to shove - diplomacy needs to progress. Right now - that is what is happening.
Turkey is demanding an apology over "the flotilla" and Israel wants to give Turkey its regrets. Turkey wants Israel to bend and beg. Israel wants to remain upright.
Apology or regrets, which shall it be?
A Solomonic response is in order. The tension will probably be resolved through the use of language - different languages . Each country will say what they want and both countries will hear what they want.
That's another form of diplomacy.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Thursday, December 9, 2010

US Sees Error in Call to Stop Settlements

By Micah Halpern
Thursday December 9, 2010

I've Been Thinking:
The US now understands that the demand to stop settlements in Israel was a mistake. The State Department is saying that they now see that ending settlement activity became a cause in and of itself and not a tool to solve core issues.
For the Obama Administration, it was a major realization, a diplomatic wow moment. The Palestinians feel betrayed. Israel feels vindicated.
The United States committed one of the greatest analytical and practical errors of diplomacy.
They championed the plight of the weak party only because they were weak.
They took the side of the Palestinians because it seemed that the Palestinians needed their help.
They sabotaged their own diplomatic agenda.
They blinded themselves to the facts on the ground.
And then, they were blindsided by the Palestinians.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Mossad Report on Lebanon

By Micah Halpern
Wednesday December 8, 2010

I've Been Thinking:
The Mossad has reported to the Knesset Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defense that Lebanon is in danger of being taken over by Hezbollah.
According to the Mossad, Hezbollah may take over Lebanon as a direct result of the UN report about the murder of former Lebanese President Harari.
This UN report has the potential to force Hezbollah to take over and oust current Lebanese leadership. Hezbollah is already in position to control Lebanon.
The bad news is that if that happens, the Middle East landscape would be drastically altered, it would lead to the creation of yet another Shiite-controlled country.
The Mossad reported that Hezbollah continues to arm itself.
The Mossad reported that if Hezbollah does take over Lebanon there is only a slight chance that Israel would be impacted by the change.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Egypt Blames Mossad for Shark Attack

By Micah Halpern
Tuesday December 7, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Egypt has had a shark attack.
They are blaming the Mossad.
The rumors spread quickly. Throughout Egypt, people are saying that Israel is deliberately sabotaging the Egyptian tourist industry by dumping killer sharks into the water to attack tourists.

People will say things, rumors will run wild and conspiracy theories will abound. We know that. What is most disturbing is when official leadership stimulates those rumors.
According to Egypt's South Sinai Governor Mohamed Abdel Fadil Shousha on egynews.net: "What is being said about the Mossad throwing the deadly shark (in the sea) to hit tourism in Egypt is not out of the question, but it needs time to confirm."
Time to be confirmed? Really, now.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Monday, December 6, 2010

Iran Announced They Have Uranium

By Micah Halpern
Monday December 6, 2010

I've Been Thinking:
Iran has claimed a huge victory on the eve of the direct negotiations between their country and the 5 permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany, which is taking place in Geneva
Iran claims that they have started to enrich locally mined uranium ore.
Up until now all the uranium in Iran has come from yellow cake imported 40 years ago, in 1970, from South Africa. Most experts say that this is a dubious success / victory at best.
Experts assert that there are not enough reserves of uranium in Iran to enable them to gather uranium in quantities sufficient to make the seriously enriched uranium used for high grade nuclear requirements.
The announcement and the negotiations are all about pressure and public impressions. Iran is playing a game of public perception, it is game the Iranians play well.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Sunday, December 5, 2010

Arsonists Add to Israel's Fire

By Micah Halpern
Sunday December 5, 2010

I've Been Thinking:
Israel is confronting a horrific situation - and it's not just the great fire.
Making the situation worse are the numerous other fires engulfing the area - fires caused by terrorist arsonists.
Terrorists have attempted to light additional fires. They are happily attempting to pile on this Israeli tragedy.
This is the nature of the terrorist mind. Terrorists want to destroy. In this case the Palestinian terrorists want to destroy Israeli land and property - not just human life.
Palestinians profess a love of land, but these terrorists are destroying land in order to achieve their goal. Such is war.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Saturday, December 4, 2010

Fires in Israel

By Micah Halpern
Friday December 3, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange agreed to an audio interview for Time Magazine online.
During the interview Assange spoke about Benjamin Netanyahu explaining that the Israeli Prime Minister says that a leader should say the same things in private and in public.
At the same time, the Turkish Prime Minister said that the Israel is responsible for all the leaks. His logic was that the only way Israel can be so happy and so certain about the leaks is if they knew what was in them and controlled the leak.
Of course, Turkey is wrong - and right. Israel did not leak the documents, but Israel does look good in these leaks.
The reality is that Israel was correct in their analysis of Iran. All along Israel has maintained that Iran wanted to go nuclear. These leaked documents help prove Israel's claim.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Friday, December 3, 2010

Israel looks Good in WikiLeaks

By Micah Halpern
Friday December 3, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange agreed to an audio interview for Time Magazine online.
During the interview Assange spoke about Benjamin Netanyahu explaining that the Israeli Prime Minister says that a leader should say the same things in private and in public.
At the same time, the Turkish Prime Minister said that the Israel is responsible for all the leaks. His logic was that the only way Israel can be so happy and so certain about the leaks is if they knew what was in them and controlled the leak.
Of course, Turkey is wrong - and right. Israel did not leak the documents, but Israel does look good in these leaks.
The reality is that Israel was correct in their analysis of Iran. All along Israel has maintained that Iran wanted to go nuclear. These leaked documents help prove Israel's claim.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Thursday, December 2, 2010

Wiki Confrims Saudi King Tells Iran Off

By Micah Halpern
Thursday December 2, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The WikiLeaks are filled with tidbits -- tidbits that confirm things we already knew.
For example: Saudi King Abdullah met with Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Muttaki in March of 2009.
The Saudi king told the Iranians to butt out of Arab affairs. The message was clear: Do not interfere in Palestinians issues.
There is no love lost between Arabs and Persians (the Iranians). The Iranians are not Arabs and Iran's input is not welcome in their lives or politics ... especially because the Iranians are backing Hamas against the Palestinian Authority.
Sometimes, it's just nice to have confirmation. Sometimes, it's critical.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Ecuador Offer WikiLeaks a Home

By Micah Halpern
Wednesday December 1, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The Deputy Foreign Minister of Ecuador, Kintto Lucas, has offered asylum to Julian Assange, founder of Wikileaks.
Lucas announced to the local media that they were searching for Assange and praised Assange for his investigative skills.
Ecuador may want Assange to come to Ecuador, to live in Ecuador and to speak about Wikileaks but there is almost no chance that Assange will take them up on the offer.
Ecuador is making an important anti-US point. Ecuador thinks that leaking the documents hurt the United States and in their eyes, that is behavior worth rewarding.
Ecuador is part of the left wing block of South American countries. That group includes Venezuela and Bolivia. The United States has no friends in that group.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Wiki Leaks No Big Deal

By Micah Halpern
Tuesdday November 30, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
About the WikiLeaks
I don't find the fact that this information has been leaked unsettling.
Why? Everyone realizes that these things happen.
What I do find disturbing is that so much of the so-called "intel" is opinion, not fact.
That is truly troubling.
We should not be up in arms about the leaks.
Much of information could have been deduced by closely following each story. There were real-time leaks and rumors about many of the issues covered in regional and international press.
The unprofessional documents, writings and irresponsible requests should be brought to our - the public's - attention and to the attention of watchdog groups.
There is no place for ad hominem attack in diplomacy and intelligence.
Sadly, it appears that so much US foreign policy intel which was gathered and interpreted abroad is nothing more than opinion and personal feelings.
It is not intel and it is not analysis. It is not even raw information
These leaks allow tens of thousands more people - journalists, analysts and John Q. Public - to pour over the material.
The NYTimes was correct and showed responsible judgment in redacting confidential sources and the names of people who may be put in danger.
All this info is most probably available due to new hacking techniques.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Monday, November 29, 2010

Terror in Portland

By Micah Halpern
Monday November 29, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
About: the Foiled Portland Terror Plot
aka a non-event turned into a successful publicity stunt for the Feds

The whole story highlights and is emblematic of some of the biggest problems with counter terror:
Was it important that they found, caught and arrested this 19 year old potential terrorist?
Certainly.
But ...
Like in so many cases, the "terrorist" had the bomb because the feds provided him with a bomb.
Yes ...
He had the will to murder masses, but had no ability and no technical skills to garner the money or the means to perpetrate an attack on his own.

I am not suggesting that he was entrapped.
But ...
If I was his lawyer, that would be my strategy - there would not have been any potential terror planned, had the Feds not provided the "terrorist" with all the necessary accoutrements to plan an attack.

The most important part of any terror bust is to find the connections to bigger fish and future cells - to get leads to controllers and operators outside the country and their links and organizations here at home.

This bust shows the dangers of the lone wolf and the intelligence limitations of the lone wolf. We have gained nothing other taking a would be killer off the streets on an attempted mass murder charge.

Plastering the story on the front pages does help raise awareness.
In other words, this was a non-event and a successful publicity stunt for the feds.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Sunday, November 28, 2010

Elections Today in Egypt

By Micah Halpern
Sunday November 28, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Parliamentary elections are being held in Egypt today.
Official Egyptian government sources say that all is fair and that everything is in order - but international observers are up in arms.
Only 10% of those observers who requested permission have been permitted to observe anything in the polling stations.
Not only have opposition candidates complained of harassment - but those observers who did receive permission have also experienced pressure and intimidation.
There is little doubt about the role of democracy in Egypt. The world is watching and the Western world wants Egypt to liberalize - but that is highly unlikely.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Friday, November 26, 2010

Jewish Bahrain's Upper Chamber

By Micah Halpern
Saturday November 27, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Bahrain gets it.
Bahrain understands the dynamic and complexity of tradition in the modern world.
Yesterday King Khalifa appointed four women to serve on the Upper Chamber of the Shura, the equivalent of the consulting wing of Bahrain's parliament.
Of the four women: two were Muslim, one was Christian and one was Jewish.
The Shura itself is composed of 40 members - 30 members were invited to return and 10 were replaced.
The recent elections for Bahrain's Lower Chamber were also significant. The Lower Chamber is balanced by the Upper Chamber and, all in all, they serve to lend voice to and advise Malik al Bahrain, the King.
Despite their openness on certain issues, despite their understanding on blending modern and traditional values - moves for which they should be recognized and applauded, Bahrain is still a monarchy.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Canada Says No to Durban III

By Micah Halpern
Friday November 26, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
The UN has decided to create a Durban III Conference to be held next September 21, 2011.
Durban was created to fight racism and turned into an anti- Israel and anti-Semitic festival.
Canada has already declared that they will not participate in Durban III. Canadian Immigration Minister Jason Kenney declared that they have lost faith in the Durban process.
"Canada is clearly committed to the fight against racism, but the Durban process commemorates an agenda that actually promotes racism rather than combats it."
Durban III is worth watching. Watching who participates and watching how countries respond will be useful in understanding racism.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Thursday, November 25, 2010

PA Says No Jewish History at Wall

By Micah Halpern
Thursday November 25, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Here are a few comments from the newly released five page official report of the Palestinian Authority about the Jewish connection to the Western Wall.
The author of the study is Al-Mutawakil Taha, deputy minister of information. The study itself, which is published on the official website of the Palestinian Authority, totally rejects any connection of Jewish history to the Wall or anywhere on the Temple Mount. It suggests that all of the history of the area is Muslim and Arab.
"This wall has never been a part of what is called the Jewish Temple."
Explaining why Muslims permitted Jews to pray at the Wall the paper asserts:
"it was Islamic tolerance which allowed the Jews to stand before it and cry over its loss."
No serious historian or archeologist promotes this thesis. And yet, it is the official point of view of the Palestinian Authority.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Praying for Rain

Praying for Rain
By Micah Halpern
Wednesday November 24, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
There has been a drought in the Middle East. Rainfall is down 30%. And in Israel, Jews, Christians and Muslims are gathering to pray for rain.
The situation is so dire that the Chief Rabbinate has proclaimed a fast day. And yesterday 30 Jewish, Christian and Muslim women participated in a silent walk during which they visited important sites and at each stop, they prayed for rain.
There is a direct link between rain water and comfort and life in the Middle East.
Wells and reservoirs are filled by rainwater.
Irrigation and agriculture are dependant on rain.
Underground aquifers filter rain water and fill up water sources that provide drinking water for the region.
Rain water flows into and fills up lakes and rivers.
Today, even atheists in the Middle East are praying for rain.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Iran Shuts Down Centrifuges

By Micah Halpern
Tuesday November 23, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
Iranians have shut down thousands of their uranium centrifuges.
Iranian nuclear enrichment has ground to a halt.
Iranian diplomats told AP about this nuclear crisis.
The Stuxnet computer worm has begun to take its toll. The objective of the worm was to knock out only the Iranian nuclear program - without hurting anything else. The great part of the worm is that it cannot be scanned, searched or quarantined.
The worm lies dormant until you turn on the nuclear program and then it disappears again after it has done its disruptive duty.
The Stuxnet may actually be the silver bullet, the bullet that everyone said never existed.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Monday, November 22, 2010

Ahmadinejad Wants 16 Year Olds to Marry

By Micah Halpern
Monday November 22, 2010
I've Been Thinking:
It's important to listen to the statements made by world leaders. By listening we can learn a lot about a people, a country, a society.
Yesterday Iranian President Ahmadinejad announced in the official press that girls should marry at age 16 and 17.
He was quoted as saying, "we should take the age of marriage for boys to 20 and for girls to about 16 and 17."
Ahmadinejad was responding to the new reality in Iran.
The average age of marriage in Iran is now 24to 26 years old. For Ahmadinejad an increase in the average age at which Iranian citizens marry is a sign of the religious degeneration of Iran. It is a symbol of the West's victory over the Islamic Republic.
Ahmadinejad has to respond. Ahmadinejad is calling on Iranians to return to their traditional ways.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Sunday, November 21, 2010

PA Study Is Distrubing

By Micah Halpern
Sunday November 21. 2010
I've Been Thinking:
A recent study of the Palestinian public had very disturbing results.
58% of Palestinians felt the need to support armed struggle.
Armed struggle is a synonym for terror.
30% favored a two state solution.
60% chose an intermediate answer which says: "the real goal should be to start with two states but then move it to all being one Palestinian state."
Only 36% believe that direct talks are the only way to achieve a real solution.
This is deeply troubling.
It suggests that the Palestinian people are not primed for peace.
It suggests that Palestinian leadership has failed to set the groundwork for negotiations and for a peaceful mutual settlement.
It does not bode well for peace.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Saturday, November 20, 2010

US Will Put it in Writing

By Micah Halpern
Saturday November 20, 2010
I'm Predicting:
P.J. Crowley, the US State Department Spokesman, said on Friday that: "We continue our discussions with the Israelis. If there is a need to put certain understandings in writing, we will be prepared to do that."
Israel has said that they will not agree to temporarily suspend settlement activity until and unless the agreement and the promises given them by the United States are received in writing. It seems that the US is now willing to put pen to paper and put those commitments in written form.
BUT ... I predict that this written agreement will follow a similar letter of commitment from the Bush White House to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.
Under Bush the agreement was written and sent in the form of a letter and printed on White House stationary.
BUT ... the letter was not signed.
I would guess that this letter will not be signed either.
Signed or not, neither a White House letter nor even a presidential letter can be enforced as law.
BUT ... it can be used to publicly shame and embarrass the administration if they break their word.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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