Friday, September 30, 2011

Iran's Cruse Missile

By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:

Iran continues its rhetorical attack against the West.

The Iranians are making announcements and releasing proclamations designed to shake and rattle the West. Earlier this week they announced that they would be sending Iranian naval forces to the eastern seaboard of the United States.

Then Iran announced that they were transitioning into mass production of a cruise style missile - a land-to-sea, short range, highly sophisticated weapon which will bolster their defense.

Even more important than its capability is that the new weapon called the "Ghader" or the "Capable One" in Parsi is very easy to operate and will be sold to anyone with enough cash.

These are obviously just verbal games - but they are messages that should be properly understood and placed in the proper context. Then we watch patiently and re-evaluate continually.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Thursday, September 29, 2011

US Against Pre-Conditions

By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said it first. Then United States Ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro said it again.

They said there should be no preconditions to talks between the Palestinians and Israelis.

They said the United States does not think that a settlement freeze must be in place before talks can begin.

This was the mistake that President Obama made after taking office in January 2009.

Obama made it clear that the expected a cessation of building before talks would begin. That, in turn, gave Palestinian leadership the license they were searching for to not participate. Even after a 9 month and 1 week freeze out of a total of 10 months, the Palestinians only came back to the negotiation table to discuss extending the building freeze.

This all happened exactly. Not much has happened since.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Iran Threatens US With Navy

By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:

The head of the Iranian navy is quoted in a report in today's IRNA (the Iranian National News Agency) saying that Iran was thinking of deploying navy ships close to the shores of the United States.

Navy Chief Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari is quoted as saying: "Like the arrogant powers that are present near our marine borders, we will also have a powerful presence close to American marine borders."

The head of the Iranian navy is suggesting that Iranian naval boats strike up a post on the Atlantic seaboard.

Interestingly, the US ships in the Straits of Hormuz are often actually in Iranian maritime waters.

Should the Iranians put this plan into action it would result in a serious increase in already tense relations. It would not be an act of war - provided the Iranian naval ship remained outside the boundaries and provided Iran did not harass and interfere with trade.

But this would certainly be a very aggressive move by Iran.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Tuesday, September 27, 2011

PA Hope US Will Still Give Aid

By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:

It is essential to lay out the threat that the US President and Congress have put to the Palestinians.

If the Palestinians pursue a unilateral declaration of statehood they will lose US funding. The Palestinians do not want to lose US funding, so that means that they must return to face to face negotiations with the Israelis.

Only by returning to the table and talking with the Israelis will the Palestinians get their nearly $1 billion in aid from the United States.

The Saudis have promised to pick up the slack - but they said that they will donate only $200 million which falls far short of what the Palestinians need.

The Palestinians are convinced that the US will not follow through with their threat to divest. They are convinced that the US will not let them starve or permit their infrastructure to crumble. The Palestinians are betting that the United States will help despite their threats not to give.

The Palestinians may be correct - but it is highly doubtful.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Monday, September 26, 2011

Iran & Turkey Join Forces

By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan announced that Turkey will be joining Iran in a military operation against the Kurds.

This is not just the Turks and Iran sharing information.

This is not a drill, this is not an exercise.

This is a real military operation to attack the Kurds.

Turkey and Iran see the Kurds as a mutual enemy.

This is another very blatant example of how Turkey has turned its back on the West.

Turkey is in possession of some of the most modern, up-to-date weapons systems which Iran will now have access to.
This is earth shattering.
The potential for destruction is enormous.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Sunday, September 25, 2011

Abbas Says No to Quartet

By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:

Abbas returned home to Ramallah today. Thousands of Palestinians crowded together to cheer him on for taking a stand and moving them toward statehood.

What was not heavily covered in the Arabic press was that while on the plane, just as he departed New York, Abbas rejected the proposal put forth by the Quartet to jumpstart talks with Israel.

Abbas outright rejected the Quartet's plan. I have not seen the plan itself, only partial bits and pieces that have been leaked - but from that and from previous plans and historical precedent, I can pretty much surmise what is in the Quartet proposal.

Abbas set down two pre-conditions for talks. Negotiations will not begin until all Israeli settlement building stops and until it is agreed that pre 1967 borders will be the borders.

Last year at this time there was a settlement freeze. Israel gave the Palestinians ten months with absolutely no settlement construction. And after nine months and one week and no talks, the Palestinians woke up and said they want an extension of the freeze.

At that point the Palestinian objective became crystal clear. The Palestinians wanted a settlement freeze - not negotiations. For the United States and for Israel the freeze was a tool - not a goal. For the Palestinians the settlement freeze was the goal.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Saturday, September 24, 2011

New Peace Options from the Quartet

By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:

Tensions have peaked in the United Nations. Now we can begin to understand what has been happening these past few days.

It all climaxed midday on Friday when Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas delivered his speech. When he reached the rostrum, Abbas was welcomed with a loud ovation. When he lifted a hard copy of the proposal for Palestinian membership the applause grew louder. There was energy in the room, almost every speaker before him had mentioned Palestinian statehood.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyau, a gifted orator, did as fine a job as anyone could have done - but he was not even in the competition.

The looming problem is how to move ahead. Each side now has some serious preconditions.

The Quartet, composed of the US, the UN, the EU and Russia, which has been deadlocked on this issue for a year, finally hammered out some suggestions to advance the face to face negotiations. UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon expressed hope that the parties would heed their suggestions.

But seriously - if the UN, EU, US and Russia could not come to agreement for a year and they are objective parties, how difficult do you think it will be for the Israelis and the Palestinians.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Friday, September 23, 2011

PA Will Propose Membership

By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has made up his mind. After reading yesterday's interview with the Palestinian press organization MAAN, there can be no doubt that the Palestinians will submit a proposal to the UN Secretary General requesting full membership in the United Nations today.

It is a proposal that will be debated by the Security Council.

US President Obama made it clear that the United States will use its veto to squash the proposal. Ambassador Susan Rice said yesterday that she expects that the debate may begin as early as next week.

It is not certain, however, that the Palestinians have the 9 votes in the Security Council to get to the point that the US will need to use its veto.

Yesterday almost every speaker at the GA said that the Palestinians deserve a state. Almost representative also spoke about the need for Israel to have secure borders and the need to restart direct negotiations.

The purpose of submitting this proposal - which will fail, is contrary to our logic. Western thought would dictate that a failed proposal will hurt rather than benefit the Palestinians ... but in the Middle East, leaders do not always do what is beneficial for their people.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Thursday, September 22, 2011

Palestians Livid with Obama

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
United States President Obama addressed the United Nations General Assembly yesterday.
The response was predictable. The Israelis loved the speech, the Palestinians did not.
The Israeli interpretation of the Obama speech is that the president of the United States really understands the issues they confront and that he outlined the US perspective, which is in tandem with the Israeli perspective.

The Palestinians saw it as a "pro Israel speech." Across the board

every response that came from Palestinian leadership was that the Obama speech was pro-Israel and that it did not at all connect to the Palestinian crisis.
Obama said that the way forward is through direct talks and negotiations. He said that votes do not create a state.
Who knows where we are going now. Abbas is scheduled to speak on Friday - you can bet that after hearing Obama speak, the Palestinians are sitting down to rework and significantly alter the Abbas speech.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Wednesday, September 21, 2011

UN Vote Up in the Air

By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:

The crunch is on at the UN. The Palestinians are pushing very hard for full membership.

They have 2 hurdles to pass, the Security Council and the General Assembly.

In the Security Council the PA needs 9 votes, no vetoes.

In the General Assembly the PA needs 128 votes.

Gabon, Bosnia and Nigeria are the key to the Security Council vote. Gabon has said that they will not say anything about their intention until Friday's vote - but they will probably either abstain or vote a "no vote." Nigeria has said they will abstain. Bosnia is still up in the air.

If all this happens, the United States will not have to use their veto - the Palestinian proposal will only have gotten 6 or 7votes.

On the other hand, if everyone votes "yes" then the PA will have hit the threshold and the Unites States will have no choice but to use their veto.

Friday is the day of reckoning.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Turkey FM Leaves Leaves When Israeli Speaks

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Last night Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu walked out of a UN conference on terror just as Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon stood up to speak.
This was not the first time such an insult occurred. It has become commonplace since last year's flotilla.
Diplomatic relations between Israel and Turkey are worsening.
Yesterday US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with Ahmet Davutoglu. The meeting lasted a full hour. According to sources a significant amount of time was dedicated to Clinton urging Turkey to mend fences with Israel.
The upshot of Clinton's comments was that at this time the region does not need any more conflict.
The argument was hardly convincing for the Turks.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Monday, September 19, 2011

Hamas Does Not Want A State

By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:

Question: Who is really against the proposal for Palestinian statehood?

Answer: Hamas.

The prime minister of Hamas, Ismail Haniyah, has blasted Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas because Abbas never even asked for the Hamas point of view regarding statehood.

What is the Hamas point of view? Hamas rejects the idea. And because Hamas was elected in a plurality in the last election, that should be reason enough for the UN to reject the PA proposal.

The Palestinian Authority is presenting itself as "the sole representatives of the Palestinian people" and that is truly not the case. The voice of Haniyah and the Palestinians of Gaza is not being heard.

One must realize, of course, that the reason Hamas rejects statehood is because they know full well that a declaration of Palestinian statehood by the United Nations explicitly implies recognition of Israel. They know that a State of Palestine will be defined by the UN as a state next to the Jewish State of Israel.

That reality cannot be justified by Hamas. It would mean the end of their vision. And their vision, their mission, is vanquishing all of Israel and transforming everything into a Palestinian state. Hamas cannot let that happen.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Sunday, September 18, 2011

By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians are going for broke. They want to propose statehood in both the United Nations Security
Council and the General Assembly.

The Palestinians want full membership in the UN.

As of now the PLO is an organization and with UN observer status. The proposal or proposals is for the Palestinian State. If the Palestinians are denied statehood in the Security Council they can change their status in the General Assembly to that of state observer, a status which, while it may be shy of total membership, is still a vast improvement over their current status.

The next few days at the United Nations will a roller coaster. They will be filled with misleads, empty promises threats and more.

As for the ultimate outcome - there are too many variables, too many egos and too many secret conversations and back corridor proposals still taking place to predict.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Saturday, September 17, 2011

UN and the Palestinian State

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Palestinian Authority President Abbas gave a speech yesterday explaining that he was bringing the proposal for Palestinian statehood to the UN Security Council. He proclaimed that he would demand the legitimate right of the Palestinians people.
Abbas said: "We are the only legitimate representative of the Palestinian people and we intend to keep going until we secure full independence."
Hamas took exception to the Abbas speech especially the line about being "the only legitimate representative of the Palestinian people."
Hamas wants to remind people that they - Hamas, not the PA - won the plurality in the last election and that they - Hamas - control Gaza and are establishing more and more footholds in the West Bank.
Abbas is keeping his options open. He is clearly see-sawing back and forth. Does he go to the Security Council where he faces certain defeat or to the GA for overwhelming support or should he do both.
Now there is also talk of a softened draft proposal for Palestinian statehood. This soft proposal would be a theoretical acceptance of the idea of Palestinian statehood with an understanding that the details - borders, Jerusalem, refugees, will be handled later.
That softened proposal will be acceptable across the board. It will make all the players happy. Some of the observers, however, might be angered.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Friday, September 16, 2011

Hamas Reject UN Vote for State

By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:
The United Nations General Assembly 2011 has begun. Many issues await resolution. The one issue that has drawn the lion's share of attention is the call for recognition of a Palestinian state.
One Palestinian group is dead set against the proposal --- Hamas. They call the UN bid a "cosmetic move that will not lead to any results."
There are several reasons why Hamas is against the UN resolution:
# 1 Establishing a Palestinian state de-facto recognizes that Israel exists next to it, even if the borders unclear and to be determined

# 2: The Palestinian Authority never even consulted with Hamas before going public with the idea of approaching the UN
# 3: The original idea for proposing statehood in the UN came from Prime Minister Salem Fayyad who was not even elected to office but was appointed to fill what should have been the Hamas post of PM
Hamas is not in the business of accommodating on any of these issues -especially not on recognizing Israel or accepting Fayyad. These issues have prevented Hamas and the PA from coming to a power-share agreement. In May they signed a unity pact but have been stymied since.
This UN bid is just another example of the friction, tension, hostility and downright distrust that exists between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Thursday, September 15, 2011

Turkey Will Escort Flotillas

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan has announced that the Turkish navy will escort any future Turkish aid flotillas en route to Gaza.
This decision is a direct by product of the escalating tensions between Turkey and Israel - tensions that have been building to a crescendo as a result of the UN Palmer Report.
An action of this type would be an act of war --- an armed, foreign ship breaking a sea blockade. A not just any blockade, a blockade that the UN Palmer Report said was justified and legal.
I am not convinced that it will come to this, but the rhetoric is ratcheting up very high.
Very sharp words are coming out of Ankara.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Hamas Will Move To Cairo

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
Mahmoud Zahar, one of the central leaders of Hamas, was recently quoted as saying that Hamas is considering moving their headquarters from Damascus, Syria to Cairo, Egypt.
This is hugely significant both in thought and in action.
In Damascus, under the eye of President Bashar Assad, Hamas had free reign to do as they wished - including unleashing terror, coordinating with Hezbollah and with Iran and engaging with terrorist cells across the world.
Hamas used Damascus as a base of operations because in Damascus they were safe from the international community and in Syria they had a home which identified and supported their vision.
Right now Syria is preoccupied with other issues. Freedom of movement has been curtailed and there have been several massacres of Palestinians in Syria. If they do make the move to Cairo, Hamas will be signifying that they feel safe with the Egyptians and that they are secure in the knowledge that their host will support their visions and invest in their goals.
That would be a significant shift for Egypt ... even for the new Egypt.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Silence is Israel's Best Policy

By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:
Given the tremendous tensions and rhetoric that have emerged over the past few weeks between Turkey and Israel it is remarkable that Israel has been so quiet.
It all kicked into gear after the publication of the UN Palmer Report which laid blame for the flotilla on both sides and also said that Israel's sea blockade of Gaza was legal and justified.
Turkey has been on a tirade - stomping, fomenting, fuming and snorting. They have been aggressive and rattling their sabers.
Israel, meanwhile, has been impressively silent. And by being silent Israel has removed the need to engage in battle with Turkey - no PR battle, no battle of rhetoric and not even a battle of diplomacy.
Erdogan, the Turkish leader, is starting to look silly. He is spouting extremist and pretty foolish ideas. Rather than helping his cause, the leader of Turkey is taking his country down a few notches in the eyes of the Western world.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Monday, September 12, 2011

10 Years After

By Micah Halpern

Column:
Seldom in history can we look at a single moment and say with complete and unwavering conviction that because of the events that transpired during those specific moments on that particular day, history was transformed. Seldom can we pinpoint the specific event that transformed our future.
The world is a different place today because of the acts of willful and mass destruction that shattered the early morning of an otherwise insignificant Tuesday ten years ago.
As much as the world was effected and is now changed, the powerful United States of America, her financial and cultural center New York City and her seat of military power, the Pentagon, were even more profoundly affected and have, as a result, been dramatically transformed.
The unthinkable occurred. The unimaginable became real. Fantasy turned into cruel reality.
The horror we, citizens of a free and democratic world, are still reeling from as a result of the atrocity called 9 -11 is not just about the sheer numbing number of dead and injured. There have been larger atrocities. It is not just about the fact that the United States was the target. That, too, had happened a decade earlier when the same World Trade Towers were targeted by the same al Qaeda terrorist organization in a partially successful attempt to bring down the building that housed the business center of the world.
For the United States and for the West this was a jarring wake up call.
Americans could not understand why they were chosen to be the targets, why they, the great defenders, had become the victims of attack. It has taken a long time to internalize the message. The United States, the symbolic Big Brother of the Western World, was targeted for what the West represents - not for any specific actions it took or did not take. The Western world represents ideas that are so deeply antithetical to the mindset and teachings of the Islamic terrorist that the terrorist has only one way in which to respond - by attempting to destroy the West. And the United States represents the West in all of its incarnations. In the eyes of the terrorists the United States is the most acclaimed representative of the world of the heretic, the Western world.
Before 9-11 Americans were blithely and innocently unaware about how they were perceived and what they represented to the non-Western world. Proud and chauvinistic, Americans could not even imagine that a large part of the world did not share their convictions about freedoms and democracy. People, even people who were knowledgeable of and familiar with world events, had never heard of Osama Bin Laden or of al Qaeda. Terror happened in other parts of the world, other countries and populations were targets of terror, not them, not super power Americans.
Ten years ago Americans felt that the values of freedom, women's equality, equality among all races, agreeing to disagree on issues of religion, recognizing that differences make for a more exciting dynamic and productive society, were universally held. Ten years later, Americans still hold true to those beliefs. But now, they understand that their own Western beliefs are not universally held. They know that they must fight for their beliefs and they are up for the challenge.
The terrorist struck at what they considered to be the heart and nerve center of the West - Wall Street. They saw their attack as a great victory and as a lethal blow to the US and the West. The blow was painful, but it was not lethal, it was not the death blow al Qaeda has intended.
The United States had always understood that a certain modicum of terror was acceptable. It was considered the cost of doing business. Until 9-11 Today, US policy has shifted into a no tolerance policy, a policy of seek and destroy. Trillions of dollars have been dedicated to finding the new enemy, the Islamic terrorist. Wars are being fought and countries have been invaded all in order to get a handle on the elusive enemy, the enemy that has no borders and respects no borders.
There have been successes and there have been many near success. There would never have been a worldwide approach to confronting terror had the Western world not been awakened as it was on 9-11. Terror would have simply been one of those unfortunate world events the Israelis deal with on a regular basis and the Europeans deal with every once in a while.
9-11 it changed us all. It awakened Westerners to a new reality.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Saturday, September 10, 2011

Credible Threat Means

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
The expression "a credible and unconfirmed threat" needs to be explained and put into proper context.
A "credible and unconfirmed threat" like the threat that was brought to the attention of the public about NYC and Washington DC just prior to the 10th anniversary of 9-11, means that there is specific intelligence that identifies an area and that a plot has emerged.
The people who received the intelligence are concerned that the report is not simply a plan, but that the plan is at the level of action. In this case the three men behind the plan are already in the US.
An "unconfirmed threat" means that there is information from one very reliable intelligence source --- but only one source.
The 10th anniversary of 9-11 threat is real. The plan seems real. The dates make sense. Much of the information actually comes from the computer that belonged to Osama bin Laden.
The US must react and must protect itself. Protection was already stepped up because of the anniversary. Now the authorities are not only on very high alert, they have a direction.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Friday, September 9, 2011

Palestinians Push for Declaration

By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:
The Palestinians have officially begun the process of declaring Statehood in the United Nations and of becoming a full member state.

A formal letter has been sent by the PA to UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon.
In the letter they explain that their Declaration of Palestinian Statehood is an issue of human rights and self determination. They explain that this is not a question of foreign affairs or foreign relationships with the United States or with any other country. It is a question of relieving the Palestinian people's suffering.
The Palestinians are framing the issue in the context of human rights and have asked the Secretary General for support in helping to move the process along.
The problem is that the Declaration will not have a legal impact. It will be voted on by the General Assembly. The Palestinians believe that they will get 140 countries to vote in support of their Statehood making it an overwhelming majority of member support.

There is no question that this proposal will not be approved by the Security Council.
The only way for the Palestinian Authority to become a full member of the United Nations is to first have the proposal passed in the Security Council and then bring it to the General Assembly.
This vote will not only pass in the General Assembly but it will also alienate Israel and the United States as well as most other Western nations - all the countries who reject the linkage between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Thursday, September 8, 2011

Turkey Wants Israel to Give Back Their Drones

By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:
Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan blasted Israel again yesterday. He said that Israel was not honoring their military contracts with Turkey.
Hold it ... didn't Turkey cancel all military contracts with Israel?

Evidently Erdogan is upset that Israel has in their possession 10 Heron drones which they originally sold and leased to Turkey. A service contract was included with the drones. As it happens, the drones are under service in Israel right now. And Israel is not returning them.
These drones are part of the secret weapon arsenal that Turkey keeps in order to patrol and use against the Kurds in the north and in Iraq when they threaten Turkey in their battle for independence.
Should the drones be returned to Turkey? That is an interesting international legal question.
It seems clear that the leased drones need not be returned. There is a big risk of not getting them back. The remaining drones should also remain in Israel. True, they are the property of Turkey - but at the present time there is no military agreement to facilitate the return of this very highly sensitive spy equipment.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Palestinians Can't Agree on the Time

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

For years I have been explaining how the Palestinians are not united, explaining that they are perpetually at one another's throat constantly.

Here is another example of Palestinian disunity:

On August 1st both Hamas, who control Gaza and the Palestinian Authority, who control the West Bank, agreed to change their clocks to Daylight Savings Time. The change cut an hour off the long hot days of Ramadan when so many Muslims fast for the entire month.

On August 30th, at the end of Ramadan, the PA and the West Bank returned to Summer Time. Hamas in Gaza remained on DLS.

Here's the hitch: Palestinian Authority institutions in Gaza which include some universities and almost every bank in Gaza, keep West Bank time.

There is so little unity among the Palestinians that they cannot even agree on what time it is.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Tuesday, September 6, 2011

China Admits Talks to Arm Libya

By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday China admitted that, in July, they met with representatives of Muammar Ghadaffi to talk about supplying weapons to help Ghadaffi defeat the opposition.
The Chinese insist that that meeting did not result in weapons being transferred to Libya in order to aid Ghadaffi.
Opposition forces in Libya are livid. They know that weapons from China were sent to Algeria and from there made their way into Libya to supply and aid the strongman as he strangled Libya.
This public announcement by China will have a serious impact on diplomatic relations between the New Transitional Council, which is the new leadership of Libya, and China. The new government in Libya has said that they will not deal with China because of this weapons deal.
Get ready for much more vindictive diplomacy coming out of Libya ... Russia will probably be the next country to feel the wrath of the new Libya.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Monday, September 5, 2011

Egypt & Turkey Strike Relationship



By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Diplomatic relations between Turkey and Israel are crumbling and in crisis and diplomatic relations between Turkey and Egypt are on the upswing.

Relations between Egypt and Israel and Israel and Turkey are on the ropes. And then yesterday Turkey and Egypt set the groundwork for a strategic agreement. Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan will visit Egypt on September 12th. It is even rumored that Erdogan will visit Gaza while in the region.

These moves are extremely telling.

On the one hand: Israel is being further and further isolated and the countries that are isolating her are becoming closer and closer.
On the other hand: The Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued an announcement saying that Egypt had no intention of following Turkey's lead and downgrading diplomatic relations with Israel. It said that their situation with Israel is very different from the Turkish situation with Israel.
If this was a kid's game, it would be called seesaw. But this is not a game.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Saturday, September 3, 2011

Turkey Wants an Apology

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

There is no doubt. The Palmer Report, the UN report about the flotilla, has brought about a diplomatic crisis.

Turkey has downgraded their ambassadorial status with Israel to that of Second Secretary. That means that the Turkish government has only an extremely low level diplomat handling affairs in Tel Aviv.

The Palmer Report placed serious blame on the organization that coordinated the flotilla and it also said that Israel was justified, but excessive, in defending itself. The Report recommended that Israel express appropriate regret to Turkey. Turkey, however, is not about to accept regrets, Turkey is demanding an apology.

From the philosophical and diplomatic points of view "regret" and "apology" are not synonyms. And believe me, both Turkey and Israel understand the nuance.

Regret is when you are not happy with the results. Regret is when the results may have been unintended, but the action that created the results was justified.

Apology means the entire episode was unfortunate and undesired. Apology means that any given act and the results of that act should have been avoided.

Obviously, Israel believes, as does the UN Palmer Report, that boarding the flotilla was justified and that boarding falls under the rubric of defending their borders.

Obviously, as well, Turkey disagrees.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Friday, September 2, 2011

UN Flotilla Report

By Micah Halpern


I've Been Thinking:

The UN Palmer Report was made public yesterday. The report was very critical of Turkey and of the Flotilla organizers, calling them totally irresponsible. It was also duly critical of Israel.

After reading all 105 pages, I can safely say that although I disagree with several of the points within the Palmer Report, the report was honest and even handed.

The report reads: "the flotilla acted recklessly in attempting to breach the naval blockade."

"Israel's decision to board the vessels with such substantial force at a great distance from the blockade zone and with no final warning immediately prior to the boarding was excessive and unreasonable."

"This included physical mistreatment, harassment and intimidation, unjustified confiscation of belongings and the denial of timely consular assistance."

And then the report advises that Israel should pay and express regret.

"An appropriate statement of regret should be made by Israel in respect of the incident in light of its consequences."

"Israel should offer payment for the benefit of the deceased and injured victims and their families, to be administered by the two governments through a joint trust fund of a sufficient amount to be decided by them."
Both the Israeli and Turkish representative were given a one page limit on which to respond.
Mr J. Ciechanover, the Israeli on the committee, disagreed with several findings. The Turkish representative, Mr S. O. Sanberk, was far more direct. He wrote : "I reject and dissociate myself from the relevant parts and paragraphs of the report, as reflected in paragraphs ii, iv, v, vii of the findings contained in the summary of the report and paragraphs ii, iv, v, vii, viii and ix of the recommendations contained in the same text."
The Palmer Report offers suggestions on how to progress from here. They recommend a committee to help move things along.
Interestingly Israel has already offered regrets ... Turkey wants a full blown apology.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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Thursday, September 1, 2011

Baradei Camplains About Army Leaders in Egypt

By Micah Halpern


Thursday September 1, 2011
I've Been Thinking:
Egyptian presidential candidate Mohammed Al Baradei gave an interview to the Egyptian newspaper al Sharouk.
Baradei expressed anger with the current military rulers for not permitting international observers to monitor the upcoming elections.

Baradei is the former head of the IAEA, the UN's nuclear watchdog.
He understands the importance of external supervision. He knows well that without international monitors this election will be a farce.
In the interview Baradei explains that the world has already stopped coming to Egypt - tourism has dropped totally and investors have all run away. A canned election will not convince the investors or the tourists to return.
What Baradei says makes perfect sense, but no one is willing to listen.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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