By Micah Halpern
Saturday January 29, 2011
I've Been Thinking:
As things heat up even more in Egypt and as the military has been brought into the picture, several things should be made perfectly clear.
Egypt has the power to put down the protests and restore order. The question is how many people will die in the process.
There are about 18 million people in Cairo, about 78 million in the entire country. Even if this becomes a more popular uprising, the only way to topple Mubarak is if the military joins the cause.
The many and various extremist groups are more organized than the students who have been the face of this uprising. The extremists outnumber and out-organize the students. Extremists and students might join forces but they have nothing in common except their disdain for Mubarak.
Do not hope for major change in Egypt.
After the Government puts down the unrest and things become calmer - which will happen, Mubarak will institute changes. He will fire his interior minister, the person responsible for the police. He may free some long time prisoners. These are some of the demands of the student protesters. He may also call for new parliamentary elections even though the last ones were a mere two months ago.
Mubarak is not going to step down and disappear. He will seek revenge against both those who stood silent and those who participated in the uprising.
For many years Mubarak has functioned as a benevolent dictator, but he is and always will be a dictator. He is and always will be a thug.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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