By Micah Halpern
Friday December 7, 2012I've Been Thinking:
Yesterday, the Israeli election committee officially closed the list of parties eligible to run in the January 22, 2013 election for the 120 seats in Israel's 19th Knesset.
34 parties are now registered. Several parties may still drop out, but no more can be added. Each party must now submit their list of viable Knesset members. The Knesset has 120 seats and each party will choose the people and the order of their list. Some parties will vote on it, some will have a committee choose and some will have their list chosen by a rabbi.
Of the 34 parties only 10 to 15 will make get enough votes to be viable. A party must receive 2% of the vote to be eligible to sit in the Knesset. This 2% threshold restricts marginal and small parties.
In the last election, in February of 2009, 13 parties were elected.
Only 4 of those parties won more than 10 seats. Kadima won 28, Likud won 27, Israel is Our Home won 15 and Shas won 11 seats.
Since then, Kadima has totally imploded. Likud and Israel is Our Home have merged. In all likelihood, this time around Shas will again get at least 10-12 seats or perhaps even 15 seats. One or two new parties will probably emerge and garner 8 or 9 seats - enough to exert some control and pressure on the larger parties. But in the end, these new parties like so many others before them they will have no staying power. The new parties that emerge are usually single issue parties, or parties based on a single personality.
I expect the total amount of Arab seats to remain the same at 11. And I expect the ultra religious Ashkenazi seats to remain at 5 seats. I also expect Labor to drop from 8 to 5 or 4 seats.
The big winner will be the Likud Israel is Our Home party which will get at least 42 seats in this election. Should they hit the 50 mark which is not totally improbably, it would make the task of cobbling together a coalition government that much easier. The leading party only needs 61 seats to form and maintain a government.
January 22nd is approaching fast.
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