By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics just came out with a study and a prediction.
They say that by 2016 there will be an even amount of Jews and Palestinians living between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River. And by 2020, they say, Palestinians will significantly outnumber Israelis.
There are 11.6 Palestinians across the world. 4.4 million live in the West Bank and Gaza. (2.7in the West Bank, 1.7 in Gaza). The study suggests that there will be 6.5 million by 2016 and 7.2 million by 2020.
The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics bureaucrats are hoping that their study will lead to a huge demographic crisis with Israel. But they are wrong.
One of the main reasons for Israel's unilateral evacuation of Gaza was to push off that demographic inevitability. And the demographic reality is a major push factor for creating a Palestinians State in the West Bank.
Without their highlighting it, this Palestinian study proves the opposite of their intended conclusion. The demographic crisis will not happen.
Since 1997 the average Palestinian family has declined in size from 6.4 per family to 5.6. That is a severe drop in just a decade. If that trend continues --- and there is no reason to assume it will not because as societies become more comfortable they have few children --- the number will decline even further.
This trend of smaller and smaller Palestinian families has proven true over the past few decades. The natural growth rate for Israeli Jews will continue to remain constant at 5.6, if there is any change it will be an increased family size.
In sum, the 1,648,000 Arabs living in Israel are not a serious demographic threat. Two years ago Arabs in Israel numbered 1,535,573 which amounted to 20.1 % of Israel's population. Today they are at 20.6%.
That increase in population is hardly a threat and it does not indicate a crisis on the horizon.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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