By Micah Halpern
I'm Predicting:
The unity agreement between Hamas and the PA is beginning to take shape.
Six Fatah security officers who had been taken prisoner in Gaza were released. There are dozens more still in prison and there is no word on their status.
As I observe both organizations and analyze their current situation it seems clear that the more powerful party is indeed Hamas and Hamas will cause the downfall of Abbas and Fatah. If there is an election, and if Hamas assumes any role, they will use it to destroy the PA.
As soon as Hamas is permitted in the West Bank as part of the PA, they will cannibalize the Fatah and the Palestinian Authority.
Until now Hamas operations in Abbas territory on the West Bank have been severely curtailed and are even illegal. But now, under cover of a unity agreement, these activities will be totally permitted. West Bank youth are flocking to Hamas.
Israel has until now been involved in helping protect Abbas, his government and his power base. Post unity agreement, Israel is pulling back.
One of the objectives of Hamas will be to topple Abbas. I predict it will take two months form the time Hamas and Fatah begin governing jointly for Abbas to fall.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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