By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
In less than a week Israelis will run to the polls.
I use the word poll for a reason. The only poll that actually counts is the election poll itself.
Understand that and you will have an easier time riding the roller-coaster of Israeli elections.
Over the next few days elections will be in high gear. Final public polls will be published. This party will be up and that party will be down.
A very wise person once explained the entire polling system to me in a very logical and compelling way. She said "polls don't lie --- people lie."
That is so true. People tell the pollster what they believe the popular line is at that moment in an effort to be politically correct. In the privacy of the ballot booth, however, they do as their conscience dictates.
In Israel an election can be swayed by a last minute surprise issue. Is defense and Iran more important than social issues like housing?
It is if that is the tone set on election morning.
There is no way of predicting how close this election will be, no way to know which party will win, which person will lead his party to victory.
The next few days promise to be very interesting. If people claim that they can predict the results of this election, think of them not as analysts, think of them as wishful thinkers.
Micah@MicahHalpern.com
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