By Micah HalpernI'm Predicting:
A leader of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt was shot dead in an execution yesterday. It was an attack on the Muslim Brotherhood office. There was no mistake or misunderstanding.
The Muslim Brotherhood blames those who supported Mubarak.
The timing of the attack was no accident either.
This weekend begins a slew of anti-government, anti-Morsi and anti-Muslim Brotherhood protests. The date mark exactly one year since Morsi ascended to power.
The secular masses have organized huge demonstrations. The Brotherhood has pledged to defend the honor of Morsi and to defend their values against the secularists.
I predict that, coupled with the protests, will be counter protests. And I predict that there will be violence between the groups and with the police and the army.
This weekend will tell us whether there will be a coup in Egypt and whether the Egyptian army will step in. It all depends on how violent it all gets.
The calculus is simple --- the more violence, the more likely the coup.
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