Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Israeli Maneuvers in The North

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

Israel's northern border is extremely tense.

The border Israel that shares with Southern Lebanon is controlled by Hezbollah and is in crisis. Civil war rages along the border that Israel shares with Syria. And so Israel called up 2,000 reservists and they are now conducting maneuvers and drills in the north of Israel.

The dangers are great. There have already been numerous cross border incursions.

Explaining the thinking behind the drills Israeli Prime Minister
Netanyahu said:
"Israel watches with keen interest and concern the latest developments in Syria and Lebanon."
"Syria is breaking down and Lebanon is unstable. Both places posit considerable threats to Israel's security."
"Syria represents two direct threats."

Israel needs to call up reservists for two reasons. Reason # 1 is to send out the message that Israel is prepared and has the resources and power. Reason # 2, and it is a more important reason, is to train the reservists so that they have the experience in the event of a real battle.

Which we hope will not come, but very well might.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Israel Gets Another Nuclear Sub

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

Israel is about to receive their 5th Dolphin Series submarine. It is one of the most sophisticated weapons in the world and one of Israel's secret weapons.

The sub is built by Germany and was modified to meet Israel's specifics requests. A ceremony took place with leaders from both Germany and Israel congratulating themselves on the completion of the sub.
They also agreed to - and are now working on, a 6th sub which will be completed in 2017.

The sub will arrive in Israel in the near future and get an even greater soup up. It will be made into an even more superior weapon and Israel will strip all the elements that would permit Germany to track it.

The 5th Dolphin Series sub it is one of Israel's most expensive weapons.

They can stay underwater indefinitely. They are extremely quiet and do not give off any ping. They are practically a stealth weapon under the sea. They are armed with numerous weapons including nuclear missiles. And their conventional weapons can hit almost anywhere in the world without being detected.

These Dolphin Series submarines are a real game changer.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Monday, April 29, 2013

Iraqi Kids Treated in Israeli Hospital

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

Continuing the theme of feel good news in the Middle East, a story about how Israel is helping people from other countries feel good - literally.

Just yesterday Israel approved a request for three Iraqi children to be brought to Wolfson Medical Center in Holon for treatment.

The children are aged 1, 4 and 5. They will be treated for heart ailments and hopefully, they will be cured.
This program has treated over 3,000 children from 44 countries. Since 2004 they have treated over 180 children from Iraq - and 50 of those children were treated in the past two years.

Israel has also taken in and treated at least seven Syrians hurt in their civil war. The number of Syrians treated in Israeli hospitals is probably much greater, but privacy and security issues do not allow Israel to release more details.

This is remarkably altruistic. This is what Israel does, quietly saving the lives of people in need, even people who come from behind enemy lines.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Sunday, April 28, 2013

Burt Bacharach to Israel

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

We spend so much time hashing and rehashing the problems of the Middle East and the threats that emerge and subside in the region that I thought it would be nice to focus on a nice cultural event that will take place this summer, in Israel..

Burt Bacharach will perform one concert in Israel on July 2. The concert will take place in the city of Binyamina.

This will be the first visit of Bacharach to Israel. It is inevitable that the concert will be a huge hit.
Bacharach, who turned 85 in March, is still very spry and very sprite. He is without a doubt one of the greatest song writers in modern history. His greatest works include "What the World Needs Now Is Love Sweet Love" and "Walk On By."

Tickets to the concert cost about $100. Only a few thousand Israelis can attend this kind of event, but the entire country with get a tremendous psychological lift from Bacharach's appearance and concert. It will be all over the internet, on TV and radio and multi picture spreads and articles in the international press.

When international stars come to Israel it is a vote of recognition for the country and Israelis yearn for and thrive on that recognition.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Saturday, April 27, 2013

Jordan King in DC- Don't Trust Them

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
King Abdullah II met with President Obama in the White House yesterday.

It was very productive and useful meeting. The main topic was Syria. Of course there were two different perspectives on how to protect Jordan and on what Jordan can do to help the US.

King Abdullah is a very much at home in DC. He is a Georgetown graduate and has spent decades in the United States. But he should not be deceived by the friendly White House reception and the apparent symbiosis.

In the eyes of the White House Abdullah is just like Mubarak and just a little better than Assad and Ghadaffi. That means that the United States will use and exploit Jordan and will not hesitate to throw the King of Jordan under the bus when it is convenient. They will do exactly what they did to Mubarak.

Interestingly, Al Qaeda has set their sights on Abdullah. They want him out just like they want to Assad out.

Abdullah knows that there are real threats to his monarchy. And he knows that, right now, one of the most stable and responsible allies he has is Israel.

His enemies are counting on the US to abandon Jordan.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Friday, April 26, 2013

Iran Makes a Move

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

Reuters ran an interview with Iran's deputy nuclear negotiator. His name is Ali Bagheri.

In the interview Bagheri explains that Iran is now ready to move forward and negotiate with the West. He says that Iran is awaiting EU Foreign Minister Catherine Ashton's phone call.

About Uranium enrichment Bagheri said that Iran's 20% uranium enrichment was for research reactors only.

"We produce 20% uranium to provide fuel for Tehran's research reactor, also four other reactors in four different parts of Iran which are under construction. With this in mind, plans have been drawn up to convert 20% uranium to 20% oxide."

That makes a total of 5 nuclear reactors working with 20% enriched uranium. Converting it to oxide powder is very positive and encouraging. Once the uranium is converted to oxide it cannot be reconverted.
Sounds good, but was he speaking the truth? Iran is great at spin.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Thursday, April 25, 2013

The Ayatollah Speaks

By Micah Halpern
Column:
Iran's Grand Leader The Ayatollah Khamenei has condemned the Boston terror attack. The Ayatollah Khamenei emphasized that Islam rejects the murder of innocent people. And then he condemned what he referred to as the hypocrisy of America.

The head of Iran saw an opportunity and seized it as the Iranians so often do and do so well. The Boston attack was the perfect opportunity for Iran to explain to the non-Western world the unfair practices of the United States and the West. Khamenei wove together a perfect argument decrying of the hypocrisy of the most powerful Western country, the United States, while, at the same time, condemning acts of violence against civilians and especially against children.

Look at the statements Khamenei made before a convention Iranian of army commanders and Basij leaders.

These quotes are verbatim, they are taken from FARS, an official Iranian news service:
"In compliance with the logic of Islam, the Islamic Republic of Iran opposes and condemns any kind of explosion and killing of innocent people no matter it takes place in the United States' Boston or in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria."

"The attitude of America and others who allege to be supporters of human rights towards the killing of innocent people is contradictory and we, thus, believe that the United States and the front standing against the Islamic Republic of Iran are irrational."

"What kind of logic is this that if children and women in Afghanistan and Pakistan are killed by Americans and if the terrorists supported by the US, the West and the Zionists cause catastrophes in Iraq and Syria, it wouldn't matter, but if a blast takes place in the US or a Western country, then the whole world should pay the price for it."

Unfortunately, the arguments put forth by the undisputed and leader of Iran will ring true and meaningful in many, non-Western, corners of the world. At the same time, these statements, Khamenei's biting critique of the United States and US policies, can help us in the West in our understanding of why Iran and her allies believe that the United States and the West misunderstands Iran and the rest of the world.
What is missing from the Khamenei's attack against the United States is any acknowledgment that at the same time that he condemns terror against innocents, money from Iran is pouring into terror organizations plotting to do just that, kill murder and maim as many innocents as possible. But self-awareness would be too much to expect of The Grand Ayatollah.

The biggest flaw in his diatribe, the most glaring misrepresentation, is not omission of the well known secret that Iran sponsors both the terrorist organization Hezbollah and the terrorist organization Hamas and bankrolls their attacks but that Iran also monetarily supports Syrian dictator Bashar Assad and his attacks against his own people.

The other part missing from the Grand Ayatollah's rhetoric, from his condemnation and attack on the US is any mention of the fact that, in his mind and in the mind of Islam, anyone connected to the conflict is no longer considered innocent. That means that all Israelis - young and old, men and women, children and elderly are, in his gestalt, all justifiable targets.

And that also means that eight year old Martin Richard was a fair target for the perpetrator/s of the Boston terror attack.

Iran is in conflict with the United States and the United States is a target. So are all her citizens. Including eight year old children. Especially is they are within the area targeted for attack. Period, end. For Iran, it is that simple and straightforward and equation.

Now, I am not saying that Iran sponsored the twin terror bombings in Boston. I am arguing that Iran does not care about the deaths of innocent people when they do sponsor terror attacks. And I am saying that the condemnation of the attack by the Ayatollah Khamenei is vacuous and a public relations ploy intended for the non-Western world which understands, without explanation or cue cards, his true intention and the meaning of his carefully chosen words.

So what does the Grand Ayatollah really mean by his response to the Boston terror attack bombings? The entire discussion is one of political expediency. Khamenei is using the opportunity to justify his own position and discredit the United States with no compunction over the fact that he is, when you read his statements carefully, justifying the actions of the terrorists. He is publicly calling the United States out and saying: What do you expect given the way you treat the rest of the world.
That's how the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei does things.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Rebels Have Anti Tank Missile

By Micah Halpern
I'm Predicting:

If there is one thing for certain it is that both sides in the Syrian battle have staying power.

And it looks as if, barring some colossal military maneuvering, the battle will continue to be waged. Game changers would be Assad becoming even more brutal and using more of his heavy weapons or the rebels getting access to more and better weapons.

Over the past few weeks the rebel forces have shown us that they do have a handful of very accurate and extremely potent anti tank weapons. They have the ATGM, the anti tank guided missile. That was their weapon of choice in fights around Damascus.

The ATGM has the potential to change the balance of the Syrian battle and even the outcome of the conflict. The guided missile is a point-and-shoot, error proof system. And it destroys tanks.

Part of Assad's strength until now has been that his tanks, helicopters and fighter jets advance at free will.
There was no real response to them. That has changed. Now Assad's tanks cannot move at will. And when stationary, they are sitting ducks and easy targets for the ATGM.

There's more. Because the rebels have the ATGM Assad cannot relocate his tanks to other locations where they might be needed. On the open road or flatbeds they can be picked off with apparent ease.

But here's the problem for the rebels. It seems that they only have a handful of ATGMs. If they had more, they would use them.

The ATGM weapons are made by the Russians and by the United States. It is unlikely that the Russians gave them to the rebels. But the rebels could have bought them from a secondary source. The Americans cannot sell them to the rebels but it s possible that the CIA gave them to a group who gave them to the rebels as an experiment.

Either way, if more ATGMs appear in the battle field expect Assad to respond with even greater and more brutal force.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Wednesday, April 24, 2013

EU Lifts Ban on Syrian Oil

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

The European Union has lifted their ban against importing Syrian oil.

Of course, there are still conditions to be met before allowing Syrian oil into the European market. The oil must come from fields controlled by Syrian rebels fighting to oust the Assad regime.

It makes sense. This way, the rebels can their own raise capital and buy whatever they need in order to fuel their fight against Assad.

News outlets around the world are touting this as a brilliant move. It would be - if only all of the pieces were actually true.

It is true that since December of last year most of the oil fields and pumping wells In Syria have been taken from Assad and they are now under the control of the rebels.

But the rebels that control the oil fields in Syria are al Qaeda rebels. So what the EU has done is allow al Qaeda the ability to sell oil to Europe. And that is, to say the least, extremely dangerous.

Allowing al Qaeda that kind of access to Europe with something as vital as oil and then giving them the proceeds is tantamount to a death wish for Europe.

There is no doubt that ousting Assad is a priority for most of Europe. But intentionally helping al Qaeda? That cannot have been on the EU agenda. If it is, then God help us all. I hope it was just a big, awful mistake - that will be rectified.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Israel Using Jordan Air Space

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

Le Figaro is one of the most responsible newspapers published in Europe. The paper, which is published in Paris, exposed a scoop which, if true, signals a real regional game changer for the Middle East.

Le Figaro published a story claiming that President Obama convinced Jordan to permit Israel use of their air
space in order to gather intelligence from Syria. The paper wrote that Jordan is even permitting Israel use of their air space to launch attacks against the Syrians.

This is no small feat. Not very often does an Arab country make the decision to permit the Jewish Western country carte blanche to fly over and above them in order to access Syria.

Obviously, Jordan wants to oust the Assad regime. The United States has also gone on record saying that they want Assad ousted. But Israel does not want to take sides in the conflict .

What Israel and friends of Israel should want is a stable government in Syria. Stable countries build a stable region. Israel knows that.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Monday, April 22, 2013

Bibi To Visit China

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

Next month, in May, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to make his first trip to China.
This is a very important trip for the prime minister. Netanyahu has tried to visit China on an official trip on numerous occasions - both in his first term, his second term and now his third term as PM.

China is the key to many world issues and if Israel can form an alliance with China, any type of alliance, it will propel them along the road to great success.

Israel views China as the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. China is the fastest growing economy in the world and it needs and would greatly benefit from the exciting R&D and technology that Israel is creating.
Economically, Israel wants to open more trade with China. They want to develop more technological and scientific agreements with China. Politically, Israel wants to try to convince China of the dangers presented by Iran.

Now China has its own agenda. The Chinese want to pressure Israel to make more concessions on the peace front with the Palestinians. And the Chinese will enjoy teasing the United States by dangling potential deals in front of Israel.

Hopefully, there will be no missteps or mishaps between now and May and the trip will go on as planned. But in the Middle East, you never know what might happen.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Sunday, April 21, 2013

Israelis Man ER in Boston

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

There are many parallels between the Boston Marathon double bombing and the terror that plagues Israel.

Interestingly, some of the doctors in the Boston hospital made the same comparison - because they are Israelis or were Israeli trained.

YNET, the Israeli online paper of Yediot Ahronot, ran a spectacular piece featuring the Director of Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Kevin Ilan Tabb. Tabb did his medical training and residency at Hadassah Hospital in Jerusalem. He is now on the hospital board.

Tabb said the head of their ER is Israeli and they have several other Israeli doctors in the emergency room.
There is no doubt that they have a lot of experience with this kind of terror specific trauma.

The hospital director indicated that the two most difficult components in treating patients after terrorist attacks is admitting so many emergencies at one time and treating victims lying in beds right next to the terrorists in their beds.

Medical professionals try to save whoever comes through the door. But the families of the victims are most often far less compassionate.

If you had any doubt before this horrific, brutal and uncivilized act, it should be clear now. The West, especially Israel and the United States, have much to learn from one another - and they are linked inextricably, if only because their enemies unite them.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Saturday, April 20, 2013

This Terror Cell Is Impossible to Defend Against

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

The brothers who perpetrated the Boston Marathon bombings proved an important axiom of terror and the prevention of terrorist acts.

The most dangerous and the most difficult acts of terror to prevent are those perpetrated by terrorists who are religiously and ideologically committed to their mission. In the United States that includes those who are culturally and socially assimilated.

If there are others out there like these two brothers it will be almost impossible to intervene before they reach their targets. And there are others out there like them, that is a certainty. The only chance we have is that to secure soft targets and catch the perpetrators after they have committed their terrorist acts.

These brothers are a combination of the consummate sleeper cell and the crafty lone wolf.

They waited and planned this attack and all the while they were totally off the grid. They arranged an escape plan and even had alternative plans. They clearly strategized on how to inflict the most harm at the end of the race. And they knew how to strike at and destroy families waiting for their loved ones to cross the finish line.

They knew their prime targets would be waiting for them a full three hours after the winners crossed the line. The terrorists were not interested in the race winners, usually foreign, professional, marathon runners.

The Boston Marathon terrorists did not need to be part of a larger group. They were a group. That is why no police, no intelligence team, no counter terrorism unit, could infiltrate them.

The lessons taught by these brothers will be taken to heart by other would be terrorists. The lesson we must learn is not to let fear rule our lives.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Friday, April 19, 2013

Azerbaijan & Israel

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

Next week the foreign minister of Azerbaijan will visit Israel for 3 full days. This is a significant diplomatic event on many levels.

It is significant in that Azerbaijan is a Muslim nation. 95% of Azerbaijan is Muslim. Of that 95%, 85% are Shiites and 15% are Sunnis. Azerbaijan has the second largest population of Shiite Muslims after Iran. They have more Shiite Muslims than Iraq.

Another positive, significant element is that Azerbaijan is the 20th largest producer of oil in the world. The country is in the top 10 in untapped reserves.

Until now Israel and Azerbaijan have had a wonderful relationship, albeit at a relatively low level. There is great potential here. The mutual benefits and exchanges that can emerge from this relationship can and should extend to economic, technological and military arenas.

I have saved the best for last. The most significant element of the visit is this: Azerbaijan borders Iran's northern limits. Israel has on several occasions run air force maneuvers in Azerbaijan. And a significant part of the native language spoken in northern Iran is - Azerbaijani.
Azerbaijan has access to Iran the likes of which no other country has.

Imagine: one of Israel's up and coming friends is a Shiite Muslim country. That is revolutionary. And it is very useful.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Thursday, April 18, 2013

Iran Condemns Boston Bombs But...

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

Iran's Grand Leader The Ayatollah Khamenei condemned the terror attack in Boston. He said that Islam rejects the murder of innocent people and children. But he also condemned what he referred to as hypocrisy of America.

Look at the statements Khamenei made yesterday to a convention of army commanders and Basij leader. These quotes are from FARS, an official Iranian news service.

"In compliance with the logic of Islam, the Islamic Republic of Iran opposes and condemns any kind of explosion and killing of innocent people no matter it takes place in the United States' Boston or in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria."

"The attitude of America and others who allege to be supporters of human rights towards the killing of innocent people is contradictory and we, thus, believe that the United States and the front standing against the Islamic Republic of Iran are irrational."

"What kind of logic is this that if children and women in Afghanistan and Pakistan are killed by Americans and if the terrorists supported by the US, the West and the Zionists cause catastrophes in Iraq and Syria, it wouldn't matter, but if a blast takes place in the US or a western country, then the whole world should pay the price for it."

Khamenei's biting critique of the US and it policies explains, in part, why Iran and her allies believe that the United States and the West is misunderstanding Iran and the rest of the world.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Boston Bombs

Micah D. Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

As time passes more and more information will emerge about the Boston twin bombings.
There are several important points that need to be mentioned, information that will help analysts as they study this terror attack.
The placing of the bombs shows great knowledge of the Boston Marathon. There is no doubt that the perpetrators had internal local knowledge of the marathon:
Whoever placed the bombs knew that people come to see their loved ones cross the finish line and thousands revolve in and out after the actual marathon winners, often non-Americans, cross the finish line.
Whoever placed the bombs knew that backpacks and food bags would be scattered and strewn all over the ground and go unnoticed and unreported.
The second bomb would have been even more devastating had it been placed closer to the first and delayed by another 30 seconds. More people would have been targeted - those already in the area and those who rushed in to help.
The explosions were very small. The bombs were very rudimentary. The small flash explosion and the plume of smoke told the story of a small amateur bomb.
We have to look at this attack with a more global eye. This bombing is similar to Middle East bomb attacks. But one can find the recipes on line - it does not mean that the bomber/s were from the Middle East.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Turkey Convicts Pianist

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

Turkey tried, convicted and sentenced a world class concert pianist named Fazel Say to 10 months in prison.

His crime was tweeting.

Actually, it was what he said in his tweets. His tweets were disrespectful to Islam.
The pianist, who has played with symphonies around the world including NYC, poked fun at the Muslim call to prayer. The call is only 22 seconds long. Say suggested that maybe the Muslim men were running to their mistresses or running to grab a Raki, a type of licorice alcoholic drink.

This all takes place in the supposedly democratic state of Turkey. And this is not the first time where people in Turkey who challenge or make fun of established tradition are imprisoned.

As Westerners we must remember that even the most democratic of Muslim states - like Turkey, is still a Muslim state.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Monday, April 15, 2013

Israel @ 65

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

Israel is celebrating 65 years of independence. Sixty-five years ago not even the greatest idealists, the most fervent Zionists, could have imagined the State of Israel as it is today.

Technology, medicine, bio tech, food, music, drama, poetry, film. There is almost no field in which Israel has not had a profound impact or made a generous, vital contribution.

In 1948 the Jewish population of Israel was 600,000. Today, in 2013, the Jewish population is 6,042,000. The total population of Israel today is over 8 million people, There are 1,658,000 Arabs living in Israel, about 20% of the total.

Six million is a special number for the Jewish people. The juxtaposition of the 6 million Jews who died in the Holocaust with the six million Jews now living in Israel is enormously important.
It is a watershed.

It can be said that it has taken 65 years to catch up to the loss of Jewish lives at the hands of the Nazis and their mass murder machine. There were many who thought it impossible. But miracles do happen.
Israel at 65 is the proof.

Micah#MicahHalpern.com 

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Sunday, April 14, 2013

Fayyad Resigns As PA PM

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:
 
Salam Fayyad resigned. Fayyad was prime minister of the Palestinian Authority since June 2007.

Fayyad's departure will be a blow - it will affect almost everything PA related.
Salam Fayyad was the force behind economic growth and planning in the PA. Actually, when Yasser Arafat originally brought him in to manage the finance ministry, Fayyad reformed the entire civil service insisting on direct deposit. Before that Arafat used to pay people by doling out cash filled envelopes.

Fayyad resigned because the tensions between his vision and Abbas' vision were just too great, too untenable, to breach.

The relationship between Abbas and Fayyad came full circle. Abbas originally appointed Fayyad to the position of prime minister after Hamas leader Ismail Hayyineh was duly elected by the people in 2007.
Abbas could not possibly tolerate having a Hamas leader as PM so he appointed Fayyad instead.

That move caused Hamas to secede and then respond by ousting the PA from Gaza in a coup. Ever since then, Fayyad's presence has been one of the most critical objections Hamas has had in uniting with the Palestinian Authority.

Salam Fayyad was THE address for all Western diplomats. He was a major voice for moderation and Western influence. Now that voice and that moderating presence is gone.

www.Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Saturday, April 13, 2013

Hamas Wants To Kidnap Israelis

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

The Shin Bet, Israel's internal security services, just announced that since the start of 2013 there have been 33 attempted kidnappings of Israeli soldiers.
That is huge.

According to the report, there were only 24 attempts to kidnap soldiers during all of 2012. The reason the Shin Bet gives for this rise in attempts to kidnap soldiers is that, in the eyes of the kidnappers and of the enemies of Israel, the kidnapping of Gilad Shalit was a resounding success.

Hamas and others saw the Shalit kidnapping as a vehicle through which they could exploit Israel and free many of the prisoners serving time in Israeli jails for crimes committed in Israel and against Israelis.

For Hamas, kidnapping Israeli soldiers is a weapon more effective than any other - more effective even than rockets and terrorist attacks. With a successful kidnapping Hamas brings the entire "Zionist nation" to its knees. Hamas feels that with a kidnapping they are able to ask Israel for almost anything.

So, just as Hamas has intensified its efforts to kidnap Israelis, Israelis have increased their defenses to protect their soldiers and uncover these terror cells.

Thankfully, so far, Israel has been more effective than Hamas.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Thursday, April 11, 2013

US Sees Window that Doesn't Exist

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

US President Barack Obama met with UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon yesterday. Ban Ki Moon said that he had hoped that the Middle East peace process would get momentum from the trip President Obama took to the region.

Obama said that there is a "window of opportunity for peace."

Use of the term "window" is, by now, a cliche.

For years the Obama administration, and almost every other Western leader and their administration, shouted about the dire need to find a resolution in the Middle East before the "window" of opportunity closes.

But it has not closed. The entire metaphor is wrong.

The sides - Israel and the Palestinians - are not prepared for peace. You cannot push and prod them into peace. That said, it would, at the very least, be nice to have them sit down at a negotiating table. This week, Israel was asked to take steps that would encourage and entice the Palestinians to come to the table.
Israel responded: "Absolutely no!"

But now the Israelis have said that they are stopping settlement construction. Will that bring the Palestinians to the table?

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Qatar gives Egypt Another $3Bill

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

Qatar just promised to give Egypt another $3 billion. That is on top of the $5 billion that they already gave. Libya also promised to give $2 billion in support.

Egypt is in bad need of cash.

The Egyptian economy is failing. The IMF is in negotiations with Egypt about creating important economic guidelines in order to make them eligible for an IMF loan of $4.8 billion. The economy cannot grow without the money. They need it to create new industry, new jobs and to stimulate new investments.

But despite the effort to help them, Egyptians harbor real resentment toward the IMF and toward the demands they are making in order to receive the loan. Egypt does not want to put the safeguards and processes that the IMF is suggesting into place. And the Islamic parties do want Egypt to take a loan outside of Sharia, Islamic law.

The money from Qatar and Libya is critical, Egypt needs a back up in case, in the end, they do not receive the IMF money.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Bahrain Calls Hezbollah Terrorists

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

Bahrain has just declared Hezbollah a terrorist organization. This is a huge statement.
Bahrain is now the first Arab country to call Hezbollah what it is. More Arab countries will soon join the club.

The story behind the declaration is this: Hezbollah is Shiite and Bahraini leadership is Sunni. Over the past two years there have been ongoing protests and almost a popular revolt in Bahrain by the 70% Shiite majority population against their Sunni minority rulers.

Hezbollah has been training the Bahrain fighters in urban terror tactics.

It has always been clear to the many Sunnis in the Arab world that Hezbollah was a terrorist group but it did not matter when they were attacking Israel. Now the Shiite terror group is fomenting unrest in a Sunni country. And Sunni nations are going to be up in arms about that.

There is only one Shiite controlled nation in the world right now. That nation is Iran. The inner division within Islam is going to emerge as a way of isolating both Hezbollah and Iran.

This announcement by Bahrain has several beneficiaries. It is good for Israel and it is good for the West and it is good for everyone else - except Hezbollah and Iran, of course.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Crazy Middle East

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

Direct talks between Israel and Turkey about diplomatic relations have been rescheduled for April 22.
Rumors abound as to why the meeting, originally scheduled for this week, has been postponed. Most plausible is that Turkey is still peeved and is not willing to bury the hatchet.

US Secretary of State John Kerry is finishing up the Israeli/Palestinian leg of a MidEast trip that began in Turkey. This first official trip to the region has been filled with bold fresh blasts of reality.

All in all, Kerry's impressions of this trip can be summed up by his comments to Israel's President Shimon Peres. The quote went something like this: "peace is not easy, but possible."

"I would say to everyone that I have no illusions about the difficulties; we've seen them. But you have to believe in the possibilities to be able to get there. You and I believe in them and I'm convinced there is a road ahead."

In literature that is called an understatement. But this is diplomacy.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Monday, April 8, 2013

Rockets Land in Israel

By Micah Halpern
I'm Predicting:

Yesterday a rocket was shot from Gaza into Israel. It landed in Shaar HaNegev.

No one was hurt during the attack.

There are two essential points to rocket strike against Israel.
First just this past Tuesday the Israeli air force launched a strike against 2 targets in Gaza. The targets were shooting and preparing rocket attacks against Israel.

The second point is that the Palestinians successfully shot a rocket into Israel on the eve of Holocaust Day.
For modern Israelis, no day represents the need to make certain that they not sit passively, become victims and not respond to threats the way Holocaust Day does. The Palestinians in Gaza knew this, and yet, they deliberately shot their rockets.

If there are any more shots, be certain that Israel will respond.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Sunday, April 7, 2013

Cyber Attack Against Israel

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

OpIsrael began a few hours ago. Going by the name, one would imagine that OpIsrael is one of those programs through which people learn about the wonderful contributions Israel has made to the world. Or perhaps it could be a project of the Jewish Agency to activate Diaspora Jews and connect them to Israel. It is not.

OPIsrael is short for Operation Israel.

It is an operation that began on April 7 and was organized by the computer hacking group Anonymous. The hackers began attacking Israel on the evening of April 7.

Cyber defense experts say that OpIsrael is not a serious threat to the state. Thus far, the attacks have been very light. The cyber people in Israel say that they are always prepared and that the real, serious attack that they fear will not be announced on forums and chat rooms.

The suggestion is that Anonymous just does not have the skills and the power to seriously threaten Israel. This attack will be a minor inconvenience. It is one of many. There are 10's of thousands of attacks against Israeli websites every day.

Thankfully, OpIsrael is a failure.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Saturday, April 6, 2013

Egypt Shouts No to Shia

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

The West has so little understanding of the Islamic world that they do not realize the enormous enmity and visceral hatred that exists between Islamic groups.

Egyptians hate Iranians. They hate Iranians because Sunnis hate Shiites. Simple and straight forward. Egyptians are Sunnis and Iranians are Shiites.

Egyptian society is very upset with their new president because it appears that Morsi may be on the verge of normalizing diplomatic relations with Iran. Commercial air flights between the two countries have just begun. Flights mean tourists. And the way Egyptians see it, the arrival of Iranian tourists in their country signals the beginning of an Iranian effort to convert Sunni Egyptians over to Shia Islam.

There have been violent protests outside the Iranian diplomatic presence in Cairo. Videos show graffiti being sprayed and rocks and fire bombs being thrown.

People are heard shouting slogans similar to the written graffiti.
Protesters cried out: "Jihad against Shiites and Hezbollah" --- "Morsi, you promised us Sharia, not Shia" --- "Muslim Brotherhood sold us to Iran."

These are powerful expressions. And the word play between "Sharia" which means Islamic law and "Shia" is a very good pun in Arabic.

The words sound very similar but they are very different. Shia means follower, in this case a follower of Ali, son in law of Mohammed. Shariah means legislation, that is, the law as decided by Imams spiritual/leaders/scholars.

This is actually the essence of the tension between the two forms of Islam. It is an argument over Mohammed's successor. Shia believed that Ali was divinely chosen. Sunnis, from the word Sunna, means tradition/teachings (of Mohammed) and Sunnis believe that the Imams chose the best leader.

This is just another example of the internal divisions and serious conflicts in the new Middle East. It is complicated. But it behooves the West to make the effort to understand what is truly going on in the world of Islam.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Friday, April 5, 2013

Iran sends Arms to Syria

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

Syria sent a very public message to its neighbor, Jordan, yesterday. The clear and unambiguous message was butt out - or else.

The announcement was printed as a front page editorial on the most read newspaper in Syria, the newspaper which is an official mouthpiece of Assad. The message was also declared on Syrian radio.

Jordan has permitted the CIA and other similar groups/agencies to train rebels in Jordan and then send them back over the border to fight the Syrian regime. Turkey has been doing this also, but from the very start Turkey proclaimed its opposition to Assad and support of the rebels. Not so Jordan. Jordan was trying to stay neutral and that is not an easy task.

Over on the other side, according to a report released yesterday.
 Hezbollah troops are being trained in Iran and then flown back into Syria to help support Assad.
Each side is training.

And then a major mystery emerged yesterday when the Egyptians stopped and commandeered a ship with 63,000 arms on it, not including ammunition. The vessel was not flying a flag, but information has been leaked out of Egypt suggesting that it may have been registered in Togo. No one knows where it was going.

Most probably the ship carried weapons from Iran going to support Assad in Syria. But they could also have been weapons from Qatar going to the aid of the rebels in Syrian. The last possibility - and no one idea is less plausible than the others - is that the weapons were destined for either Hamas in Gaza or the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

More details will, I am sure, surface soon.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Thursday, April 4, 2013

Jon Stewart Attacks Morsi

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

Over the past few days Jon Stewart has taken Egypt and the new government under Morsi to task for arresting Egyptian TV comedian Bassam Youssef.

Youssef was arrested for insulting Islam and insulting President Morsi.

Stewart presented two excoriating pieces about Morsi about Egyptian democracy and about a duplicitous speech delivered by Morsi who, on the one hand, insults religion and, on the other hand, says religion should be respected and he respects all those who criticize him.

The Freedom and Justice Party - which is part of the Muslim Brotherhood - took to Twitter and defended themselves against Stewart and his attacks. Their intention was to call the US media hypocritical, to say that the media is really controlled by Jews like Jon Stewart.

What happened instead was that their Twitter feed became a link to a montage of rambling pieces mostly from al Jazeera. All of it was archival material and there was no real substance.

Stewart's attack against Morsi was brutal. He showed how Morsi explicitly promised to protect people like Youssef in an interview he gave to Wolf Blintzer on CNN. Blitzer specifically used several names including that of Youssef and the response by Morsi was: "they are my brothers" therefore they have nothing to fear.

One of the strongest lines delivered by Stewart was when he leaned forward, as if to say to Morsi directly, "when you are strong you do not have to be petty."

Unfortunately, we are now seeing just how petty new Arab leadership is. Dissent, any form of dissent, is simply not tolerated.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Iran Exports Oil to China

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

China has been buying Iranian oil regularly - despite the international sanctions. China needs the oil and Iran needs the market.

Until now, Iran shipped the oil to China using their own Iranian tankers. This was done because since July 1 2012, when European sanctions were added to the US sanctions, insurance companies refused to cover any tanker transporting Iranian oil.

This week China sent its own tankers to Iran to fill up with crude and transport the oil back. Back in China the oil will be delivered to local refineries and flow into local markets throughout the country.

The fact that China is now no longer relying on the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) is a monumental shift in policy. It means that China is willing to underwrite the cost of any potential spill, kidnapping of the ship and/or a sinking. It means that the Chinese are thinking seriously about the long term and their oil acquisition from Iran.

China and Iran are linked. They need one another.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Hamas Meets in Egypt

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyah and Khaled Mashaal have met in Cairo.

Prime Minister Ismail Haniyah came over from Gaza and Politburo Chief Khaled Mashaal arrived from Qatar which is where he is now headquartered.

There are several reasons for meeting.

The most important part of their get together is to strategize a way to smooth over differences with Egypt. Hamas has been at a disadvantage ever since Egypt closed the tunnels connecting Gaza with Egypt Hamas has suffered. They no longer have the freedom of movement the tunnels offered them.

Mashaal and Haniyah must also decide if they should continue to try to reconcile with the Palestinian Authority. So far, all attempts at reconciliation have failed.

There is no doubt that they will also discuss Israel. And there is no doubt that about Israel the two Hamas leaders will be in 100% agreement. Condemn, just condemn.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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Monday, April 1, 2013

Timbuktu Under Attack

By Micah Halpern
I've Been Thinking:

Once again, al Qaeda fighters are trying to enter Timbuktu. The Mali army is repels al Qaeda, but even if the fighting temporarily dies down the conflict will continue for a long time.

Al Qaeda wants to control Timbuktu. Making the situation even more problematic is the fact that Timbuktu is controlled by the Mali government which is not Islamist. Timbuktu is controlled by Colonel Mamadou Mangara.

For centuries Timbuktu was the center of Islamic culture and learning. It is the repository for the greatest Islamic rare book library and manuscripts in the world. It was the seat of one of the greatest educational powers in Islamic history. The idea that it would be controlled by non radical, non al Qaeda type leadership is repugnant.

The government in Mali is a semi-democracy formed after two military coups that took place in 2012. The city has a population of about 54,000 people. But to al Qaeda the importance of controlling Timbuktu is not about numbers. It is about history.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com 

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