Russia Iran & Turkey Summit on Syria

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The leaders of Russia, Turkey and Iran will join together for a video conference on Wednesday.

The topic is Syria. They are all invested in Syria. They all have troops in Syria.
They all want parts of Syria.

And they all want Bashar Assad to maintain power.
This is the second time this group of three is meeting. They met to discuss the same topic in 2018.

These leaders have important matters to discuss. They must create rules in Syria so that they do not cross paths. They need to make certain that they are not in conflict with each other on the ground and in the air.

And they will be assessing how to deal with attacks from Israel, attacks which have been coming more and more regularly in Syria. The Israeli attacks are designed to prevent Iranian troop and weapons build up.

This summit has very large implications for the region. It is very important for the stability and security of the region that Russia put the brakes on Iranian and Turkish expansion in Syria.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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US Warns Israel about China

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Just as the United States puts more and more pressure on China in a trade war, Israel and China are become closer and closer.

The Israel/China nexus worries Washington.

Israel sees their relationship with China as a great, expansive, economic opportunity. China wants to invest in Israel. The United states is not elated.

The US is warning Israel. They are saying: do not let China in.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was in Israel recently on a whirlwind trip. He made time for a TV interview and took the opportunity to speak bluntly. He said:
“We don’t want the Chinese Communist Party to have access to Israeli infrastructure, Israeli communication networks … This is the kind of things that endanger the Israeli people and the ability of the U.S. to cooperate with Israel.”

That was a direct threat to Israel. And it is not the first time that the United States has forced Israel to drop a big deal.

Israel has been warned.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Iran in Syria

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Iranian media has reported that the head of the Iranian al Quds Force, General Esmail Qaani, has been visiting Syria.

Tasnim, an official outlet of the Iranian regime, reported that Qaani accused the United States and Israel of supporting ISIS and helping them.

He said: "Given that the existence of this group (Islamic State) is managed by the United States and the Zionist regime (Israel), we can be sure that the conspiracies of these two criminal regimes have not ended.”

What was an Iranian general doing in Syria - and why was he speaking about ISIS?
Iran is still deeply invested in Syria. Iran has advisers in Syria as well as weapons.

By speaking about ISIS and by pushing the idea of a conspiracy between the United
States, Israel and ISIS, Iran - through Qaani - is trying to lump together ISIS and the US and Israel. They are trying to broaden their own ally base by creating common enemies. By so doing they are pulling at the heart strings of their supporters.

Iran is trying to re-shape the political landscape in the region.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Israel & Arab Relations

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visited Yemen recently. Yemen and Israel are fast becoming good friends – but they are doing their best at keeping that friendship a secret.

Many Arab countries, Yemen among them, have been working behind closed doors with Israel. Among those countries are Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Dubai and Oman.

On the flip side, there are other countries in the region where their warm relations with Israel have cooled. Turkey is the best example. Then again, Turkey’s chilled relationship with Israel is parallel to their chilled relationship with the United States.
So, no surprise there.

The good news is that this thawing with Yemen and the others looks like it will continue for a long time - even if Israel advances with their plans to annex part of the West Bank, especially the Jordan Valley.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Abbas Rejects Treaties But Wants Peace

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians have officially rejected and discontinued all treaties with Israel.

The decision was made because Israel is discussing annexing parts of the West Bank – most critically the Jordan Valley. Israel has not yet done it – they are only discussing it. Maybe this is a test balloon.

In discussing the annexation issue with the Arab Parliament of the Arab League, a group that discusses issues and presents information within the Arab League, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas put forth that rejecting treaties with Israel is not a refusal of peace.

Of course - it is!

Peace is a treaty. The agreement, should it ever come to fruition, will be called a peace treaty.

One cannot even begin negotiating terms if you have decided not to talk. And that is the status today. The Palestinian Authority has nixed any and all conversation with Israel ever since the United States moved its embassy to Jerusalem.

In his speech to the Arab League Abbas said that he rejects “every plan of the American and Israeli governments.”

And so I ask - with whom does he want to make peace?

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Interview w Chief Rabbi of Iran

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

I read with great interest an interview with Iranian Chief Rabbi Yehuda Garami.

The interview was published in Al Monitor, an Arab website founded in 2012.

In his interview the rabbi gives spectacular insight into Iran and the Jewish community. Obviously, Iran’s Jews do not publicly support Israel.

The community appears to be stable in numbers and able to provide for their own needs and education.

Rabbi Garami says:
“I estimate that there are between 20,000 and 25,000 Jews in the country. Most of them live in Tehran, Shiraz, Esfahan and Karmanshah, though there are other, small communities too”.

He went on to discuss the state of the community, saying, “We have total freedom of religion. All the synagogues are open, and Torah classes take place there. We have all sorts of educational institutions too, including elementary and middle schools.”

About security and safety he says:
“Unlike in Europe, for example, we do not have guards outside our synagogues and schools, and our personal safety is excellent. Of course, we sometimes encounter people who are anti-Semitic, but that happens everywhere. Most of the population respects us and lives in peace with us. What is important is that in Iran there is no such concept as organized attacks on Jews.”

Is the interview 100% accurate – probably not. But it does show an important side of Iran and Iranian Jewish life.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Iran's New Cruise Missile

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Iran announced that they have test fired a new type of Cruise Missile, a missile that is resistant to electronic hacking.

Official Iranian media covered the test and reported that the missile hit its targets in the Gulf of Oman and in the Indian Ocean at a distance of 280 kilometers (170 miles). According to the report two different types of missiles were tested.

If all this is true and Iran has a hack resistance cruise missile, they are a major step ahead of the West.

A Cruise Missile concept is a “smart bomb” with an adjustable homing device. The best defense against a Cruise is to jam the electronics or to fry the electronics.

It is easier to fry than to jam. Jamming requires the defense system to first find the transmission frequency. Frying destroys all electronics in the area that is targeted.

I am doubtful. I think this report is more intimidation than fact. It is highly doubtful that Iran has developed such highly advanced and protective technology.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Annexation???

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

According to press reports Jordanian Prime Minister Ayman Safadi embarked on an emergency helicopter flight to Ramallah to speak with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

The obvious topic under discussion was Israel’s plan to annex the West Bank.

It is not known exactly what the conclusions of their conversation were. But this much we know: King Abdullah of Jordan has said that annexation could mean the end of the Jordanian peace treaty with Israel.

That might be an exaggeration. But there is no doubt that there will be a cooling off of relations between Jordan and Israel if annexation takes place.

Other countries have articulated a similar theme.

What is clear is that the Israeli cabinet is set to debate the issue on July 1.

US elections will be held in November. Despite President’s Trump’s support for annexation, it could be a small, albeit critical, issue that might sway voters away from the incumbent. So the United States is asking Netanyahu to slow down annexation plans and wait until after November.

And that’s probably what will happen.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Twitter Should Ban the Ayatollah

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Twitter has a policy about abuse and language. The policy states that Twitter is not a place to articulate “violence against a group of people” or for “glorifying violent acts”.

The policy also states that “There is no place on Twitter for terrorist organizations... and individuals who affiliate with and promote their illicit activities.” One may not be “providing or distributing services (e.g., financial, media/propaganda) to further a terrorist organization’s... stated goals.”

That is their policy, at least on paper. In actuality – I’m not so sure.

Iran’s Grand Ayatollah and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been violating this policy since he began tweeting in 2011. In just the last few days this is what he has written about Israel.

“We will support and assist any nation or any group anywhere who opposes and fights the Zionist regime.”

“Iran realized Palestinian fighters’ only problem was lack of access to weapons.”
“The West Bank must be armed, just as Gaza.”
“The only remedy until the removal of the Zionist regime is firm, armed resistance.”
And, Israel “will undoubtedly be uprooted and destroyed.”

The Grand Ayatollah needs to be censured by Twitter and removed.

If this is their policy, it should be applied. To everyone. All the time.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Iran is Close to a Bomb

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s new Defense Minister, Benny Gantz, received a briefing on Iranian nuclear development.

According to sources that were published in the Hebrew press the report was ominous.

Israel’s defense intelligence predicts that Iran will have all the components necessary for a sophisticated nuke within the next six months. And then they will be on their way to assembling a bomb. Those same officials suggest that it will take them less than two years.

The job of the Defense Minister is to protect Israel and to advise the Prime Minister on these issues. Gantz was the IDF Chief of Staff. He knows there are risks and threats. But timetables are often simply guesses.

Israel cannot afford to wait and see if the predictions they were given are correct.

They need to stop Iran.

Israel has options – but their bottom line is that Iran cannot get an operational nuke.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Billionaire Expelled From Israel

I’ve Been Thinking:

I've Been Thinking:

In Israel even billionaires must quarantine. If not, even they will be caught and immediately deported

That is what happened to Brandon Korff, the thirty-something billionaire son of Shari Redstone, grandson of Sumner Redstone of CBSVIACOM fame.

Brandon was allowed into Israel on an appeal. No non-Israelis are permitted entry and everyone – and that means everyone, must isolate for 14 days.

Brandon’s appeal asked for an exception to visit his younger brother who is a lone soldier in the IDF. He was granted the waiver and arrived on Friday. Almost immediately after arrival, went to visit his girlfriend. Her name is Yael Shelbia

Cohen, a 19 year old Israeli actress/model who is also serving in the IDF.

Brandon was told to pack his belongings and leave Israel post haste.

This is a terrible public relations nightmare for the Redstone family and for his father, Rabbi Ira Korff, a very prestigious rabbi and Hassidic leader.

The Redstones like to fly under the radar. This “fashla” or snafu, projected them into the limelight. The optics were not good.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Arab Diplomat's OPED In Hebrew Paper

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

It was a unique moment in Israeli journalism.

The front page of the Hebrew daily Yediot Ahronot had an opinion piece, in Hebrew, written by Yousef al Otaiba, the United Arab Emirates Ambassador to the United States. The oped column was about Israel’s decision to annex the West Bank.

It seems that Israeli American billionaire Haim Saban, inventor of Transformers, advised the UAE ambassador and even brought in his own media advisor.

Al Otaiba wrote that annexation would put in question the long strides that have been made between Gulf states and Israel.

As part of his conclusion the ambassador wrote: “Direct links. Expanded markets. Growing acceptance. That is what normal could be… Normal is not annexation.”

The UAE ambassador to the United States took his message directly to the Israeli reader.

Israelis are very excited about growing regional acceptance and expanding markets, so writing in Yediot in Hebrew, was an extremely wise political move. It demonstrated recognition of Israel and respect for Israeli readers.

In his own way, via this oped, Saban and his advisers may have achieved more than any political party or politician in bringing their opinion to the attention of the Israeli public.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Syrian Baby Comes to Israel

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

A ten-day old Syrian baby was brought to Israel for emergency heart surgery.

Yes, a Syrian child brought to Israel for medical help.

The Syrian family is now living in Cyrpus as refugees.

Medical teams in Cyprus, after consultation with medical center professionals at Sheba Medical Center Tel Hashomer, decided that the only way to save the child was to bring him to Israel for emergency surgery.

The Israeli ambassador to Cyprus cleared a quick path to get the child onto a special medical evac plane and to the hospital – a patient in need of care.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Look Who's Flying to Israel

By Micah Halpern

      I've Been Thinking:

Since the beginning of COVID-19 Israel has shut down its air space and airport to almost every airline.

Only Israelis are permitted entry into Israel. And after arrival, every Israeli must
quarantine for 14 days. For months, no foreigners have been permitted entry into Israel.

From the start of Coronavirus, only two airlines continued to fly to Israel on a daily basis. They are United Airlines, flying from Newark, New Jersey and Ethiopian Air flying from Addas Adaba.

More airlines, carrying Israeli passengers only, have just begun running flights to Israel.

United from Newark is easy to understand - but Ethiopian Air?
Ethiopia is the centerpiece of Israeli business in Africa. From Ethiopian an Israeli CEO can hop anywhere else in Africa.

Equally important, but not well touted, is that the Mossad is extremely active in Africa and Ethiopia is their point of entry. Now it all makes sense.



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PA Rejects 2nd Plane of UAE Aid

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

For the second time in two weeks the United Arab Emirates has sent a direct flight to Israel.

Ethiad Air sent a plane carrying 14 tons of medical supplies intended to help the Palestinian Authority fight Coronavirus.

But once again, the PA refused to accept the aid from the flight.

No one can say where the first set of medical materials went. The PA went as far as to say that they have no idea about the second flight.

The reason the PA rejected the aid is because the UAE flight flew into Ben Gurion Airport in Israel. Both flights were official Ethiad Air flights, but rather than carrying passengers, these flights carried cargo.

The PA cannot admit that the UAE is flying into Israel and that is de facto recognition of the Jewish State.

Both planes were unmarked so as not to raise suspicion.

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Saudis Nix Haj

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Saudi Arabia has been hit hard by COVID-19. Over 100,000 sick Saudis are infected.

The Saudis are considering seriously limiting the numbers of people allowed to come on this year’s Haj - the once in a lifetime pilgrimage to Muslim holy sites in Saudi Arabia.

One of the pillars of Islam is participation in the Haj. And each year 2.5 million Muslims visit Saudi Arabia for the Haj. Those Muslim visitors on their pilgrimage yield $12 billion of yearly revenue for Saudi Arabia.

The Saudis have already halted the number of people participating in the Umrah, the pilgrimage to Mecca. All because of Covie-19.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Iran is a Split Nation

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is a split nation.

We cannot know what the true percentages are, but we know that there are two different and dramatically divergent groups in Iran.

One is traditional. This group embraces Iranian leadership and their conservative views. For the most part, they are an older group.

The other group wants modernization and openness. More than anything, this group wants cultural openness. They come out to protest almost every day, asking for more freedoms. They are young men and women. They are optimistic and they dream of a great future. They use computer software to end around the oppressive restrictions of their conservative leadership. They are hopeful. And they are pro-West.

They are at war with each other. At stake is the their hope for the future of Iran.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Israeli Air Strikes

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

AFP (Agence France Presse) reported that airstrikes killed twelve Iraqi and Afghani soldiers. The strike took place in the rural area of Deir Ezzor in eastern Iraq, close to the border with Syria.

Conventional wisdom says that Israel was behind the strikes, there were eight of them, that took place just before midnight.

According to the sources quoted by AFP new reinforcements had arrived in the area. That’s obvious from the presence of Afghani soldiers so far from home. They were there moving materials to the large Iranian Syrian bases just over the border.

Equally obvious is that the Iraqis that were involved are Shiite allies of Iran and Syria.

In addition to the deaths, the strikes destroyed equipment and ammunition.

The build up of weapons, advisers and soldiers is worrisome. Israel needs to push them back and prevent a critical mass of equipment and professional soldiers from entering the area. Their presence tips the scale.

If the critical mass builds up, Israel can expect Iranian strikes from Lebanon and from Syria. They will use local and imported soldiers to do their bidding.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com


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Help Diaspora Communities

By Micah Halpern

Friday June 5, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

“We have not done enough for the Jewish communities outside of Israel.”
This is the most important quote to come from an interview Benny Ganz gave to the Israeli daily newspaper Makor Rishon.

Ganz is Israel’s new Defense Minister and alternate Prime Minister. He is scheduled to assume the prime ministry in 18 months.

He is correct.

The relationship between Israel and the Diaspora is worse today than it has ever been.

Jews around the world should be connected to Israel The real challenge is in determining how Israel can present itself in a more approachable manner to those Jews, enticing them to connect to the Jewish State.

If Ganz can do more than simply speak about the disconnect and actually conceptualize, implement and fund realistic ways to connect the communities, he will be on the way to building a significant bridge for Jewish communities outside of Israel.


Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Palestinians Are Wrong Again

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians have announced that they will not accept the tax money that was collected for them by Israel.

The Oslo Accords, signed in Washington DC in 1993 and then in Taba in 1995, outlined that Israel will collect all taxes on all imports to the Palestinians transported through Israeli ports and then transfer the taxes to the Palestinians monthly.

The taxes amount to 50% of the Palestinian budget.

Palestinian logic for rejecting their own money is that Israel is planning on annexing parts of the West Bank.

This is just another example of poor decision making and poor leadership on the part of the Palestinians.

Rejecting the money does not hurt Israel. Actually, not taking the tax money is helpful. Israel will earn interest on the Palestinian tax money.
Hoisted on their own petard, Palestinian style.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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Support The Diaspora

PA Says Will Talk to Israel thru Russia

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

The Palestinians have sent a message that they are willing to resume talks with Israel.

The catch is that they want Russia to moderate – not the United States.

This is a major step forward on the part of the Palestinians. It is also a very sly diplomatic move.

This catapults Russia into a central role in the Middle East.

The Palestinians know full well that Israel has never agreed to talks run by Russia instead of the United States. Hopefully, they will not agree this time either.

Palestinian Foreign Affairs Minister Riyad Al-Maliki said on Tuesday. “We trust President Vladimir Putin and are sure that such a meeting would bear fruit, and succeed in getting us back to the talks, as well as stopping the Israeli plans to annex parts of the occupied West Bank.”

Israel has a desperate need to find world approbation. That might just persuade them to take the bait and engage in a very destructive arrangement.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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How Iran Hacked Israel

Tuesday June 2, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

How was Iran able to hack into Israel’s water pumping computers?

How was it possible that Iranian hackers were able to get so deep into a secure Israeli system?

The answer is twofold.

First, Israel’s water system was compromised.

Second, Iran worked hard to find the water system’s weakness.

Iran is getting better and better at hacking. They are spending more time searching and finding weaknesses within systems. And they are sharing information with other hackers, especially with anarchist hackers.

All this can and should be expected.

What is surprising is that Israel did not immediately repel their Iranian hackers. And that’s why Iran was able to get in as far as they did, before being expelled.

This cannot happen again. Israel needs to do better. Israel needs to be better.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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How to Stop COVID

By Micah Halpern

I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s expert on the spread of COVID, Dr. Eli Waxman, has clearly explained how to stop a rise in cases now that the country has opened.

Obviously, when Israel - or for that matter any society, opens after having been shut down for a pandemic, there will be some reinfections. If the reinfections get out of hand, the country will need to shut down again.

To stop Covid-19 from spreading and resulting in a second shut down, Dr. Waxman says that there are three essentials and time is of the essence.

They are: Test - Trace – Isolate.

And, Waxman says, you only have 48 hours to accomplish it all.

Test – immediately, as soon as there are symptoms.
Trace – everyone the patient contacted and test them.
Isolate – immediately.

If it takes 5 days, the country will inevitably go back into lockdown. After 5 days the first patient will have infected the maximum number of people they will infect and all the other patients will follow this pattern quickly.

By day six, thousands of people would have been infected.

Micah@MicahHalpern.com

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